IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 7, 3:21 PM EST792
FXUS63 KIND 072021
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
321 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Flurries possible today and Wednesday.
- Lows in the single digits Wednesday night and Thursday night,
potential for near zero or single digit sub-zero lows Wed night
- Light snow accumulations possible Friday into early Saturday
- Below normal temperatures continue through the next week and beyond
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 321 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2025
Quiet but cold weather is in store across central Indiana today and
tonight.
RGB Nighttime microphysics loop was showing a thin break in the
stratocu along the I-69 corridor. This has allowed temperatures to
quickly drop into the teens. However, low level RH progs, Hi-Res
soundings and satellite trends suggest this will at least partially
fill in which should keep temperatures from dropping too much lower
than the upper single digits over southeastern sections by daybreak.
Hi-Res soundings and low level RH progs suggest the stratocu deck,
currently over central Illinois west to southeastern Missouri will
be hard to completely erode, given the low sun angle this time of
year, despite a low amplitude short wave ridge moving in from the
northwest within the broad long wave trough in place. In addition,
mid and high clouds will be rolling in tonight ahead of a trailing
short wave trough. This increase in cloud cover should keep
temperatures from spiraling out of control tonight but still with
the snowpack, south central locales, where the bulk of the snow
fell, will be susceptible to single digits overnight lows. With the
weak surface pressure gradient, wind chills will not be a huge
factor other than how cold it will be anyway. If a few breaks or
thin spots in the overcast can materialize this afternoon,
temperatures should be able to reach the middle to upper 20s which
is some 5 degrees or so below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 321 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2025
The main focus in the extended period will be the continuing cold
pattern and the potential for snow late this week. There is high
confidence temperatures are going to remain cold through the week
and into week 2.
The period will start out with the coldest temperatures for the next
week thanks in part to surface high pressure moving through. The
high will help to suppress widespread cloud coverage allowing for
ample radiational cooling Wednesday night and single digit lows.
For both Wednesday and Thursday nights, wind chills near zero to
slightly below are expected.
The remainder of the long term will be predominately influenced by
upper troughing. An elongated upper trough will form over central
North America, stretching from Canada down to Mexico, with the
leading surge of the trough axis moving over the Great Lakes. At the
surface a few different low pressure systems will be progressing
eastward with one to the north of the forecast area and one to the
south. This set of boundaries will bring chances for snow Friday and
Friday night followed by an additional bout of cold air. Guidance
seems pretty decent with PoPs and snow amounts for now but still
could see tweaks in both in the coming days as the location for
best moisture access becomes clearer and high confidence that we
will see less than we got the past couple days. For now think that
at most a couple inches of snow is reasonable across central
Indiana.
Another short wave will be possible Sunday that may bring an
additional small amount of snow. A continuation of upper troughing
will help keep the cold airmass in place for a while. Other than our
southern counties potentially creeping above freezing a time or two,
widespread freezing temps will remain. In addition, expect mostly
cloudy conditions for most days in the long term.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1253 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR ceilings to persist intermittently into the night.
- Flurries at times this afternoon.
Discussion:
Low stratus currently blankets Indiana with all TAF sites reporting
OVC skies. Ceilings range from 2500 to 3500 feet. These MVFR to near-
MVFR conditions are expected to persist through the night. Mid-level
clouds between 10000 and 14000 feet are expected to arrive overnight.
On and off flurries have been reported across much of Indiana since
16z. Guidance retains the chance for flurries through most of the
afternoon. These flurries will not lead to visibility reductions.
Winds should retain a westerly to west-northwesterly component
through the TAF period. No gusts over 10kt are anticipated. A period
of light and variable or even calm conditions is likely overnight.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Eckhoff
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 7, 3:21 PM EST---------------
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