BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 1, 10:05 PM EST441
FXUS61 KBOX 020305
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1005 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Some showers fill back in briefly this evening as low pressure heads
into northern New England. Strong and possibly damaging winds are
expected Thursday as colder air works into the region.Dry conditions
with below normal temperatures expected Friday through the
weekend. A system should track to our south early next week,
although there is a chance it brushes southern MA, CT, RI
bringing light snowfall.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Made some more tweaks to the forecast this evening. Main
changes were to precipitation timing as it moves offshore.
Last few runs of the HRRR looked quite reasonable. While the
precipitation across the coastal plain should be offshore by
1 AM, still expecting some lingering snow towards the
Berkshires. Adjusted temperatures to reflect observed trends as
well.
Gave some consideration to a short-fuse Winter Weather Advisory.
Thinking there will be a few communities, namely Rowe and
Monroe, and perhaps Charlemont, that could see a few inches of
snowfall by daybreak. However, that is not enough area to
justify a Winter Weather Advisory for all of western Franklin
County. The majority of that area is expected to see snowfall
of 1 inch or less, with locally higher amounts up to 5 inches
towards the high elevations along the VT/MA border.
8:30 PM Update:
Radar shows areas of light to moderate rain moving across east
and southeast MA with light snow over the Berkshires. Made some
minor edits to the precip probabilities to account for recent
trends. Overall, precipitation over east MA should exit to the
east with dry conditions overnight. Gusty conditions will
continue to settle in tonight.
Key Messages...
* Strong and possibly damaging winds Wednesday night and Thursday.
The backside of the exiting low brings with it increasing cold
advection this evening and overnight. Given the lingering
shortwave energy overhead, another brief round of low elevation
rain/high elevation snow showers are possible briefly this
evening. While the rain showers should end rather quickly,
upslope enhancement helps snow continue for the highest
elevations of the Berkshires where a coating to a few inches are
most likely; several inches of snow are possible in the terrain
immediately along the MA/VT border.
While cold advection brings dropping temperatures it also serves
to steepen low level lapse rates, allowing for better mixing
down of a robust 45-55 kt 850 mb LLJ. As we begin to tap into
the stronger winds aloft, we may see wind gusts as strong as
45 mph in the high terrain and over the islands overnight. The
peak of the winds for all of SNE, however, comes Thursday, as a
warming surface promotes better mixing down from the top of the
mixed layer. A Wind Advisory is in effect for all of southern
New England where gusts are generally expected to be 45-55 mph.
However, isolated stronger gusts are possible, up to 60 mph in
spots, especially in the highest elevations. Temperature-wise,
cold advection will be offset a bit by downslope warming on west
winds for areas along the coast. Highs should be in the low to
mid 40s along the coast, 30s inland.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Winds diminishing but remaining breezy overnight.
The low pressure over Nova Scotia is slow to exit further
northwest, so while the core of the jet shifts east and the
pressure gradient weakens ever so slightly, winds will remain
elevated overnight, gusting 25 to 35 mph for most, though some
stronger gusts are possible in the highest elevations.
Temperatures dip into the mid to upper 20s, but wind chills will
be in the teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Cooler with below normal temperatures arriving by the weekend
continuing through next week.
* Low chance for a system to graze southern MA, RI, CT early
next week bringing light snowfall.
An upper level low positions over Quebec Friday through the
weekend with a broad upper trough settling southward across
the northeast by Sun. There is a solid consensus among ensemble
guidance for an anomalously cooler airmass to accompany the
trough bringing below normal temperatures to the region. Highs
range in the mid to upper 30s Friday. We tap more into the
cooler part of the airmass Sat/Sun with northwest flow aloft.
High temperatures will likely struggle to get above freezing
Saturday with Sunday being a few degrees cooler. The nights will
be chilly with temperatures dropping into the teens/low 20s.
This period will stay mainly dry with little moisture available
in the flow. Can't rule out some ocean effect showers across
the Cape and Islands over the weekend.
Next Week:
For early next week, models continue to show a system that moves
across the central U.S. toward the east coast. Ensemble means
track this system to our south across the mid-atlantic coastal
areas. There are a smaller chunk of ensemble members (mainly in
the ECMWF) that show the system track north enough to brush
southern MA, CT, and RI. This puts a low chance (< 25%) for
light snow showers in those areas. There is some uncertainty in
timing, but these chances should fall in the Monday-early
Tuesday timeframe.
Upper level troughing stays put across the region next week
which will continue the pattern of high temperatures around
5-10 degrees below normal in the upper 20s to low 30s. There is
a chance for ocean effect showers across the Cape/Islands
Tues/Weds otherwise mainly dry conditions through late week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
03z TAFs: Moderate confidence due to timing of trends.
Ceilings have improved early this evening with VFR at most
terminals as of 00z. One last round of showers moves through
this evening which could cause brief MVFR ceilings. Dry, VFR
conditions after 03z. VFR Thu and Thu night.
W/SW later become more W/NW tonight. Gusts 20-30kt persist
tonight, with gusts reaching 40-50kt Thu. Thu night W winds
diminish but remain gusty.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/
Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
High confidence through the end of the week.
Maintaining Gale Warnings on all waters as strongest winds begin
this evening and peak Thu before subsiding later Thu night and
Fri. It's possible we see some gusts reach Storm force (48kt)
but we don't have enough confidence that those gusts will occur
over a large area or for more than a couple of hours Thu.
Nonetheless, conditions will deteriorate quickly this evening as
winds and seas increase. Thursday night winds and seas will
begin to slowly diminish.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Chance of freezing spray, slight chance of snow.
Sunday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough
seas.
Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of freezing
spray.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance
of snow.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for MAZ002>024-026.
RI...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ230>237-251.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Belk/BW/Mensch
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...Belk/BW/Mensch
MARINE...BW/Mensch
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 1, 10:05 PM EST----------------
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