PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 2, 5:18 AM CST616
FXUS63 KPAH 021118
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
518 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quick clipper system tonight brings a weak chance for some
snow and rain/snow mix.
- Next major system comes through on Sunday into Monday and
brings the chance for significant impacts.
- Temps will be much colder behind this system with lows in the
single digits and 20s and wind chills near zero.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025
Temperatures will climb to near average today but it will be short
lived as a big system is set to roll through end of this weekend and
bring significantly cooler air and precip to the region. A quick
clipper system is moving through the region tonight and will bring a
small chance for some snow and rain/snow mix mainly along and north
of the I-64 corridor. Colder air then settles in behind this system.
Our next major system is set to come through Sunday into Monday.
Precip looks to start as early as Saturday night and will spread
from west to east. Models have come into better agreement over the
track of the sfc low and have it likely tracking right through the
center of our CWA. This means that the area of all snow and a little
sleet has shifted further north and is now mainly north of the I-64
corridor. Areas of wintry mix (snow, sleet, and freezing rain)
covers most of the CWA along and south of I-64. According to
soundings and better confidence, have introduced a corridor of
mainly freezing rain to the grids this is south of the wintry mix
area. Then it transitions to mainly rain with some freezing rain
early further south along the border.
An early look at amounts shows that overall QPF is rather high
around 1.25-1.75". Ice amounts look to be up to around 0.5" in some
spots, but mainly around 0.3" else where. Snow amounts are also
fairly high up north of I-64, around 6+" in spots. Had to pull down
snow ratios from what NBM had initially. I capped them out at 8
since this will be a rather wet and heavy snow and with a dry
airmass initially will keep temperatures closer to freezing. There
is still a high amount of uncertainty in these first guess totals
and a lot can change between now and then. Either way this event
shapes up though, it is likely to be a very significant event with a
lot of moisture, cold temperatures, and significant impacts.
Behind this system temperatures plunge rather quickly, so whatever
we get won't go away quickly. Highs on Tuesday are in the 20s, and
are in the teens and 20s on Wednesday. Overnight lows are in the
single digits and teens Tuesday AM onward. Wind chills will be
around zero.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 516 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025
On satellite this morning some mid level clouds are moving in
and will cover the area later this morning. Later tonight and
closer to tomorrow morning lower, MVFR cigs will move in. Winds
will be light this morning out of the south and southwest and
will pick up around midday to around 5-10 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...SHAWKEY
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 2, 5:18 AM CST---------------
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