PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 30, 2:42 AM CST989
FXUS63 KPAH 300842
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
242 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures continue today, with light rain
chances returning to the forecast tonight through Tuesday.
- Temperatures will trend colder back towards normal values for
the middle of the week. A weak clipper may bring a dusting of
snow to the I-64 corridor Thursday night.
- Temperatures will turn colder than normal next weekend. There
is a chance that a more organized disturbance could bring
impactful wintry weather to all or parts of the area Saturday
night through Sunday night. However, confidence is low at this
time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
Today through Tuesday night... As mild zonal H5 flow becomes
established over the region, above normal temperatures will
continue today. High temperatures will reach the middle to
upper 50s. The daytime hours today will be dry, and there even
may be a few glimpses of sunshine as well across southeast MO
and western KY. Gradient winds will increase today from the
south, sustained at 5-10 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts possible in
the afternoon.
The dry weather will be short-lived, however. Rain chances
return to the forecast tonight through Tuesday afternoon.
Surface low pressure will develop and organize across the
central Plains and quickly move eastward through the Lower MO
and Lower OH River valleys. Light rain will spread into the area
tonight, with the greatest coverage along the I-64 corridor.
Rain will exit the region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Total
precipitation looks quite light, ranging from a few hundreths
along the MO/AR and KY/TN borders to 0.1-0.2" along I-64. Low
temperatures tonight will fall into the lower to middle 40s.
During the daytime hours Tuesday, highs will be a bit cooler, in
the middle to upper 40 due the rain and cloud cover. Gradient
winds will be gusty from the west-northwest at times as well,
with gusts of 20-30 kts possible during much of the day.
Following the departure of the surface low pressure, a colder
airmass will push into the region, and low temperatures Tuesday
night will fall near normal values in the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Wednesday through Friday night...As we open the new year,
temperatures will trend back to normal values for early January.
Temperatures will reach the upper 30s to lower 40s for highs in
most spots. Overnight lows will fall into the middle to upper
20s. A quick-moving clipper will pass north the region Thursday
night. This could bring a light dusting of snow to the
Interstate 64 corridor, but travel impacts are not expected at
this time. Would not rule out the footprint of light snow
expanding a bit with later forecast packages, as some of the
latest model guidance is a bit more bullish with light snow
coverage across the northern half of the forecast area. However,
snow amounts looks very light, too low for travel impacts.
Saturday through early next week... You are probably going to
hear a lot about the weather forecast for this period over the
next several days.
Here is the bottom line:
1) Arctic air will push south towards the Midwest/Ohio Valley
this weekend, mainly Sunday into early next week. Temperatures
will fall below normal.
2) A southern stream disturbance will organize and pass
somewhere through the TN or OH River valleys this weekend.
3) The combination of this disturbance and preexisting cold air
will allow for the possibility of wintry weather of some type
impacting the region during this time. It is simply too
early to say if the region will see snow, rain, freezing rain,
sleet or some combination of these types of weather.
4) Confidence in the forecast is *low* at this time, and what we
are forecasting now (snow or a rain/snow mix depending on your
location) will very likely be different (possibly very
different!) than what will actually happen. However, if we do
see frozen precipitation, travel impacts are possible either
across our forecast area or close by.
5) The best thing to do right now is stay aware of the forecast
for the next few days. Details will become clearer towards the
latter half of the week.
6) Whether the region sees much wintry weather or not, a wave
of very cold temperatures is also possible for the first full
week of 2025.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024
A few lingering showers remain in the Evansville Tri-State area
late this evening. Vsbys have fallen in the wake of
precipitation, down to IFR. Cloud cover overnight should allow
for vsby reductions to be more in the MVFR range, though pockets
of lower vsby are possible. MVFR to IFR cigs move through the
northeastern half of the Quad State overnight, lingering into
the day. Light winds overnight shift to southerly, increasing to
around 10 kts gusting to 15-20 kts. A band of rain moves
through towards the end of the TAF period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...ATL
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 30, 2:42 AM CST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
