CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 30, 4:58 AM EST229
FXUS61 KCLE 300958
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
458 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure exits to the northeast today. After a brief break,
another low pressure lifts out of the Ohio Valley and across the
area Tuesday into Tuesday night. A colder pattern sets in from
midweek into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong low pressure will continue exiting to the north-northeast
through Ontario and towards Quebec today while slowly weakening.
Wind Advisories remain active for Lake, Ashtabula lakeshore, and
Erie Counties until 10 AM. Because Meadville has continued to record
occasional gusts over criteria as recently as last hour, have the
advisories for Geauga, Ashtabula inland, and Crawford in play until
7 AM. All other advisories have been expired or canceled as winds
gradually ease as the low pressure pulls away. Wrap around rain
(which may mix with snow in the higher terrain of the snowbelt with
little to no accumulation this morning) continues from approximately
Sandusky to Mansfield points east. This will also gradually exit
east, though won't clear Northwest PA until early-mid afternoon.
Otherwise, we're starting the day cloudy across the board but
there's decent hope in a brief window of clearing across most of the
area (especially our Ohio counties) this afternoon before clouds
begin spreading in ahead of the next low pressure. Temperatures will
only recover a few degrees today, with highs ranging from the upper
30s in the higher terrain of PA to the low-mid 40s elsewhere.
A narrow ridge axis slides through this evening. This will be short-
lived, with the next low pressure moving out of the Plains and into
the northern Ohio Valley tonight before arcing east-northeast
towards northern Ohio or Lake Erie by Tuesday evening. Much of
tonight will be dry, though clouds will begin spreading in and then
thickening/lowering ahead of the low pressure. Lows will generally
reach the low to mid 30s from Northeast OH into PA, with mid 30s in
Toledo too. Locations farther south/southwest will stay up in the
mid to upper 30s tonight.
Another round of wet weather will arrive pre-dawn Tuesday along the
I-75 corridor, overspread the rest of northern Ohio Tuesday morning,
and reach Northwest PA by late morning or early afternoon. A dry
slot will try spreading into at least some of our Ohio counties from
the south Tuesday afternoon and provide a transition from a steadier
rain to more intermittent showers for a time, though this likely
won't reach far Northeast OH or Northwest PA until Tuesday night (if
at all) and may never reach the Toledo area either with the 700mb
low track (a typical marker for how far north a dry slot may get)
progged to be right over Toledo. Forecast rain amounts have trended
a bit higher with this package, with total amounts through Tuesday
evening (before precip either ends or changes to snow where it
lingers) of 0.50 to 0.80" west of the I-77 corridor decreasing to
generally 0.25 to 0.50" to the east. National Blend ensemble "high
end" rainfall amounts (10% chance of exceeding) generally range from
0.60 to 1.00" across the area (higher west), suggesting amounts
should all largely remain under 1.00". This should be a manageable
amount of rain overall, though we are saturated and rivers are
flowing a good bit more after Sunday's rainfall, meaning additional
run-off will keep local waterways moving into midweek. Highs on
Tuesday are expected to reach the mid to upper 40s generally along
and southeast of a Marion to Lorain to Erie line, while locations
north of the low track (such as the Toledo area) will likely stay
in the 30s for highs.
We'd be remiss to not mention that a number of models flip the
Toledo area over to a period of wet snow for several hours on
Tuesday as the greatest precipitation rates impact Northwest OH.
Whether or not this occurs will depend both on the track of the low,
which will influence the placement of the heaviest precip and
temperature profiles, along with the intensity of the precipitation
itself...given a generally mild airmass still in place, heavy
precipitation rates will be needed in order for sufficient dynamical
cooling to occur for a change to snow. Given the conflicting and
generally limiting factors, the forecast does have a rain/snow mix
(but currently with no accumulation) on Tuesday across parts of
Lucas, Wood, and Ottawa Counties. A farther north low track would
keep any snow on Tuesday up in Michigan, while a farther south low
track would increase the likelihood of some snow in Northwest OH on
Tuesday...though, if the track is too far south and the low is
weaker we may not have the dynamics needed, so it's a fine line.
Forecast soundings from models that show a flip to snow reveal
relatively strong lift, but with that lift focused generally below
the dendritic growth zone and with surface wet-bulb temperatures
holding just above freezing. This suggests snow will not be
efficient and will have a hard time accumulating. When viewing
snowfall probabilities from a combination of the GFS, CMC, and ECM
ensembles, there is a 20-30% chance for over 2" of snow (at a 10:1
ratio, which is too high) across Lucas, Wood, and Ottawa Counties
with odds decreasing to 5-10% for over 4" of snow. Given that ratios
may even struggle to average more than 5:1, this is a long way to
say that even if the flip to snow occurs as models such as the HRRR,
GFS, and ECMWF have over Toledo that it will be hard to get more
than a rather light accumulation of wet snow during the day Tuesday.
Colder air does start getting pulled in behind the system for
Tuesday night, leading to a more widespread change to snow across
the area discussed in the short term section below...
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A low pressure system will be exiting the region to the east on
Tuesday night and a mix of rain that will be transitioning to snow
should be across the region in association with the back side of
this low and with the upper level trough axis moving through the
region. Therefore, have kept the 100 PoPs across the area to start
the period. The transition to snow should happen fully by Wednesday
and become a more focused event for Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania with the bulk of the snow being focused in areas where
the lake enhancement will be favored. The typical Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania snow belt will need to be watched for any
future winter headlines as several inches of accumulating snowfall
area expected and snow bands could persist in this region through
the rest of the short term forecast period. Temperatures through the
period will start around normal and then trend downward to below
normal with highs in the 20s expected for Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper trough will remain over the eastern portion of the country
for Friday and into the weekend. This trough will continue to
support cold air into the region and a surface trough across Lake
Erie. Lake effect snow should continue through the period and have
continued higher PoPs in the snow belt region and below normal
temperatures. A shortwave will ripple through the broader trough
pattern on Friday and should enhance snow in the region and will be
a period to watch for any winter headlines later in the week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Mainly MVFR has overspread the area as wrap-around rain wraps in
from the west. As this rain works east ceilings and vsby should
fall a bit more from CLE-MFD points east. The rain and vsby
restrictions will exit from west to east through this morning.
MVFR ceilings will generally prevail through most of today. Most
areas should see a break to VFR ceilings late this afternoon or
this evening before the next low pressure and associated
restrictions approaches from the west-southwest tonight.
Gusty southwest winds continue at 15-25kt with gusts 30-40kt
early this morning. Winds will gradually ease through today,
though gusts don't come out of play until later this afternoon
or early this evening at most sites.
Outlook...Non-VFR is likely in periods of rain and snow Tuesday
and Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Blustery conditions continue on Lake Erie this morning with several
lakeshore observations seeing intermittent gale force winds or wind
gusts. Will maintain all of the marine headlines with the package
this morning with just dropping the Gale Warning headline for the
Islands to Vermilion zone as winds are already starting to retreat
in that area. Have gone ahead and replaced the nearshore Gale
Warning with a Small Craft Advisory for that area. With the strong
west winds, low water conditions remain for the western basin of
Lake Erie and water levels could get to a half foot below low water
datum. Conditions will improve through the day and believe that the
headlines should all drop by this afternoon with perhaps a lingering
Small Craft Advisory for the eastern basin. A low pressure system
will target the area for Tuesday and strong northeast flow will be
favored and another round of Small Craft Advisory headlines appear
possible for Tuesday into Tuesday night, especially for the western
and central basins. With the passage of the surface low, winds will
flip to the northwest and increase. A trough will establish itself
across the lake for the middle of the week and maintain elevated
west to northwest winds across the region. All of these factors
should necessitate more Small Craft Advisory conditions for the
entire lake for Tuesday night through at least Friday and there will
likely be a long lasting marine headline for much of the week. Low
water conditions could be a problem again for Wednesday and beyond,
depending on the strength of the trough for the end of the week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ012-089.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for OHZ013-014.
PA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ001-002.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for PAZ003.
MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ142>144-
162>164.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
LEZ142>144.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ145>148-
165>168.
Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ149-169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sefcovic
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 30, 4:58 AM EST---------------
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