BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 24, 6:20 PM EST436
FXUS61 KBOX 242320
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
620 PM EST Tue Dec 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Generally dry weather is expected from Christmas Day through the
weekend along with a gradual warming trend. An approaching low
pressure system will bring the potential for mainly rain late Sunday
and/or Monday...but perhaps a bit of ice at the onset across the
interior.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
250 PM Update...
* Mostly clear tonight except the southeast New England coast
* Low temps mainly in the teens to the lower 20s
Large high pressure builds across Quebec tonight. This will result
in a light northerly low level flow of drier air with seasonably
cold temperatures. As this drier air works southward...skies should
tend to mostly clear. The exception to this will be across the far
southeast New England coast including the Cape & Islands. Cold
northerly flow over the ocean will result in ocean effect clouds and
perhaps a few brief snow flurries. There is even the low risk for a
touch of freezing drizzle given the saturation confined to the lower
levels. Overnight low temps should bottom out in the teens to the
lower 20s in most locations with middle 20s expected in the Urban
Heat Island of Boston. The mild spots will be parts of the
Cape/Islands where northerly flow over the ocean coupled with the
clouds will hold overnight low temps in the 25 to 30 degree range.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Sunny away from the Cape/Islands on Christmas
* Highs Christmas afternoon mainly in the lower-middle 30s
* Cold Christmas night with lows mainly in the teens
Details...
Christmas...
Large high pressure near the Quebec and northern New England border
will result in a sunny but cold Christmas for most of the region.
The exception will be near the Cape and Islands...where ocean effect
clouds are expected at times. It will be a chilly day with high
temperatures mainly in the lower to middle 30s. Winds will be rather
light...so wind chill will not be much of an issue.
Christmas night...
The large high pressure system remains anchored across Quebec and
northern New England. The result will be another mostly clear night
except for some ocean effect clouds towards the Cape and
Islands...where there may be a few brief snow flurries with even a
low risk for spotty freezing drizzle. Overnight lows will mainly be
in the teens...but some single digit readings are expected in the
normally coldest outlying locations of western MA. The mild spots
will be parts of the Cape/Islands where ocean effect clouds will
probably hold overnight lows in the 25 to 30 degree range.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages
* High pressure will support quiet weather across southern New
England through at least Saturday
* Warming trend expected, with above normal temperatures settling
in by Friday
* Precipitation chances increase late this weekend/early next week
Weather across southern New England Thursday through Saturday should
be dominated by a high pressure. Once this high pressure moves north
into Canada, the door should be open for a low pressure to approach.
timing is always a question at this time range, and expect there will
be changes to the forecast timing with later forecasts this week.
Temperatures should trend near normal for late December by Friday,
then above normal to close out 2024.
Dry weather anticipated for most through Saturday, except perhaps
some stray ocean-effect rain or snow showers across the Cape and
islands Thursday morning. Time of day will be important to the low
pressure early next week, with rainfall most likely during the
daytime, and some snowfall possible across the higher elevations of
southern New England at night. These details will come into better
focus over the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00Z TAF Update...
Tonight...High Confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions expected outside the potential for
periods of marginal MVFR cigs possible across the Cape/Islands
with some ocean effect clouds. W winds become N tonight at
speeds of generally 10 knots or less. A few brief flurries possible
overnight near the Cape and Islands.
Christmas and Christmas night...High Confidence.
VFR conditions persist except for some marginal MVFR ocean
effect cigs at times near the Cape and Islands. Dry weather as well
outside of the risk for a few brief flurries towards the
Cape/Islands with even a low risk for a touch of spotty freezing
drizzle. NNW winds generally 5 to 10 knots.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance FZRA.
Thursday Night through Saturday: VFR.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance RA, slight chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Christmas night...High Confidence.
High pressure near the Quebec/northern New England border will
result in N wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots across our open waters
tonight into Christmas. We continued the small craft headlines for
our eastern outer-waters...where we also expect to see some 5 foot
seas. The gradient should weaken enough to allow winds/seas to drop
below small craft thresholds everywhere Christmas night.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of freezing rain.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of rain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Frank
MARINE...Belk/Frank
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 24, 6:20 PM EST----------------
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