PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 28, 6:10 AM CST466
FXUS63 KPAH 281210
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
610 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A vigorous disturbance will bring moderate to heavy showers
and thunderstorms to the region tonight through Sunday
morning.
- The heaviest rainfall of 1.5-2.5+" will fall in a few hours
over west KY, southwest IN, and southeast IL. A Flood Watch
has been issued for this area for this evening into Sunday
morning.
- After drying out Sunday night through Monday afternoon, a weak
disturbance will bring a good chance of light rain Monday
night through Tuesday.
- It will dry out, and temperatures will trend colder for the
second half of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 609 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
Visibility values have dropped to a quarter of a mile or less
across parts of southeast Missouri, roughly Dexter to Poplar
Bluff to West Plains. Coordinated with WFO Springfield to issue
a Dense Fog Advisory through 10 AM CST since the latest MOS
guidance is slow to dissipate the fog until later this morning.
Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance is below.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
Today through Sunday night... An active period of weather is
expected across the Heartland tonight through Sunday morning
with heavy rain and some thunderstorms expected across the
region. Surface low pressure will organize over central and
northern TX this morning and afternoon, and rapidly deepen to
around 1000 mb as it passes northeast along the Ohio River
tonight through Sunday morning. Widespread convection will fire
across the Mid-South during this time, and this activity will
lift northward through the region tonight through Sunday
morning.
While severe thunderstorms are not expected with this complex of
showers and thunderstorms, widespread moderate to heavy rain
will fall over a relatively short period of time. With PWAT
values surging to 200-300% greater than normal, these showers
and thunderstorms should have no issues generating copious
rainfall amounts. The path of the surface low will bring the
heaviest rains over much of western KY, southeast IL, and
southwest IN. Here, soil moisture values are very elevated and
local creeks are streams are running high from recent rainfall.
The experimental National Water Model guidance is very bullish
on high water developing on many of these smaller creeks and
streams over the next 24-36 hours. Given these factors,
confidence was high enough to hoist a Flood Watch from 00-15z
Sunday for western KY, southeast IL, and southwest IN. Cannot
rule out needing to add additional counties based on short-range
CAM guidance later today.
Overall, a broad brush of 1.5-2.5" of rain will fall across the
Flood Watch area by late Sunday morning, with locally higher
amounts of 3" possible. Areas outside of the Flood Watch in
southeast MO and southwest IL look to see rainfall amounts of
about 0.5-1.25". Current thinking is that scattered to
widespread nuisance flooding is likely in the Flood Watch area,
with more isolated pockets of higher impact flash flooding where
training of thunderstorms occurs. Rainfall will quickly exit
the region by Sunday afternoon and evening as the surface low
exits to our northeast.
Outside of rainfall concerns, temperatures today and Sunday will
remain well above normal. High temperatures today will reach the
upper 50s to lower 60s in most areas. Dew point temperatures
will creep into the middle to upper 50s as well. Tonight,
temperatures will be very mild still, only falling into the
lower to middle 50s. On Sunday, temperatures will start off
mild, but may fall a few degrees in the afternoon as cold air
advection picks up behind the exiting system. Some gusty
gradient winds from the W-NW at 20-25 kts are possible as well
during the morning and early afternoon hours.
Monday through Friday night... A quieter and gradually colder
weather pattern is expected to close 2024 and open 2025.
Following the departure of this weekend's system, mild zonal
flow will persist across the region. High temperatures Monday
and Tuesday will be above normal still, reaching the middle to
upper 50s on Monday and the upper 40s to lower 50s on Tuesday. A
weak H5 shortwave will bring a good chance of light rain to the
region Monday night through Tuesday. The greatest coverage looks
to be along and north of Interstate 64. Overall, rainfall
amounts will be minor, generally 0.10-0.25" in most areas.
Following the exit of this early week system, an deepening
longwave trough will begin to push southward across the central
and eastern CONUS. This will bring a significant cool down to
open the new year, though it looks to be dry. The Wednesday
through Friday period will see high temperatures range from the
middle to upper 30s to lower 40s from north to south,
respectively. Overnight low temperatures will range from the
middle 20s to lower 30s from north to south as well. These
values will be near to slightly below normal for the early
January period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
Difficult, low confidence TAFs for this package. Low cloud bases
(mainly IFR/MVFR) will gradually lift to VFR this afternoon and
early evening ahead of widespread moderate to heavy rain. As the
low levels saturate tonight, cigs will drop back to IFR
conditions. Vsbys will be IFR/LIFR at CGI through this morning,
then VFR this afternoon. After the rainfall arrives overnight,
expect generally MVFR vsby restrictions.
Steady south winds (4-8 kts) will back to the east and
eventually N to NE late tonight and increase (8-12 kts, gusts to
20 at CGI and PAH) as low pressure passes over the region.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
ILZ083-086-087-089>091-093-094.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ107>112-
114.
IN...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 28, 6:10 AM CST---------------
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