IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 25, 3:00 PM EST110
FXUS63 KIND 252000
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
300 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread light rain expected through this evening before
coverage tapers off late overnight
- Clouds and isolated light showers or drizzle to persist into
Thursday
- Warming trend through the weekend with additional rain likely
Friday into Saturday and again Tuesday
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 259 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
Wet and dreary conditions have persisted through the day expected.
Current radar and surface observations show widespread light rain
continues with slightly heavier precipitation moving into SW
portions of central Indiana. This heavier precipitation is
associated with stronger isentropic ascent which will continue to
shift into the area during the afternoon/evening. Temperatures have
remained relatively stagnant in the 40s thanks to extensive cloud
cover today.
By late tonight, coverage of precipitation is expected to taper off
some once the stronger forcing for ascent shifts eastward. Isolated
light showers or drizzle will remain possible into Thursday though
due to weak isentropic ascent and low-level moisture. A similar
setup to last night suggest patchy fog could develop once again. Any
fog that develops is likely going to mix out quickly Thursday
morning. Limited diurnal cooling will keep temperatures in the upper
30s to low 40s.
Expect mostly cloudy skies for much of the day Thursday with the
potential for isolated light showers due to persistent weak
isentropic ascent/warm air advection. Some drier air may filter in
from the south during the afternoon providing perhaps some peaks of
sunshine. Look for slightly warmer temperatures due to increasing
southerly flow. Temperatures will range from the upper 40s to low
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 259 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
The warm with rain chances pattern will persist throughout long term
period. Just beyond the horizon is a swing to a cold airmass as we
enter the new year.
The overall upper pattern will be a slow moving trough with multiple
waves running along the leading edge. Central Indiana will sit under
that leading edge for much of the time, bringing not only additional
chances for rain, but above normal temperatures advecting in from
the SW. Warmest day of the period is expected on Saturday with highs
near 60.
This weekend will see a couple of rounds of rain due to multiple
short waves and stagnant boundaries over the area. Models are
currently in fairly good agreement on the track of the surface low
moving from Texas northeastward into western Missouri during the
daytime hours Friday with a strengthening LLJ across the Middle
Mississippi Valley Friday. Central Indiana is expected to sit on the
nose of the jet by Friday afternoon with increasing confidence in a
period of moderate to briefly heavy rain. A secondary surge of
moisture should then quickly move in behind the initial low pressure
system with the potential in heavier rain impacting portions of the
Ohio Valley, but there is a lot more uncertainty as to where this
axis of heavier rain looks to set up. Current ensemble guidance is
hinting that the heavier axis will be south of the Ohio River but
details remain quite uncertain.
After a brief dry break for the start of the new week, a better
organized low is expected for sometime Tuesday or Wednesday. It is
unclear at this time whether the low will track closer to the
Tennessee Valley or closer to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region.
Whatever track it takes it seems there is still a decent chance the
forecast area will see rain from it at some point so will keep the
chance to likely PoPs given by guidance.
Beyond the long term period will be a pattern shift as the upper
trough pushes eastward, placing the region on the back side, under
strong northwesterly flow. This shift to colder temperatures will
begin to be seen at the tail end of the forecast period with a
return to near normal temps, but expect below normal beyond that.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1245 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
Impacts:
- Brief VFR conditions expected this afternoon before MVFR
conditions return.
- Brief IFR ceilings possible late this afternoon, but confidence is
low
- MVFR could persist into Thursday morning for some sites, but
IND/BMG may improve to VFR overnight
Discussion:
Cigs have improved much more than expected with most sites now
experiencing VFR conditions. However, ceilings will once again lower
today leading to MVFR conditions once again. These MVFR ceilings may
only be brief near the southernmost sites, especially near BMG.
There is still at least a low chance of IFR conditions returning
late this afternoon into the evening for a few sites, but confidence
is significantly lower than earlier today due to how poorly models
are handling the setup. By tonight, VFR conditions could return for
the southernmost TAF sites though periods of MVFR conditions remain
possible.
Light rain or drizzle should continue into tonight for most sites
before tapering off some. The potential for light showers or drizzle
remains through the period however. Winds are expected to remain
less than 7 kts through the period with a predominately
southeasterly direction.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Melo
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 25, 3:00 PM EST---------------
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