PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 24, 5:04 PM CST264
FXUS63 KPAH 242304
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
504 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- On and off chances of light rain through the Christmas holiday.
- Above normal temperatures are expected the rest of the week
and especially the weekend.
- Another disturbance will bring a better chance of widespread
moderate to locally heavy rain with thunderstorms by the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
Sling shots of several disturbances making passage will yield
off and on rain chances for the better part of this Christmas
week. The first such is ongoing as more or less a glancing shot,
with upwards to a half inch or so total qpf in our western
counties thru mid week. It's related to a warm sector/inverted
trof that produces off/on rain chances thru Christmas day as the
ripple of energy moves across the TN Valley and flattens out by
Thursday.
After a relative pause, the next ramp up in pops occurs by
week's end, as a stronger long wave trof dives across the Red
River and bee-lines toward the MS Valley. It's negatively tilted
and will present an intial wave of convection w/heavy rain
potential Thursday night. After its passage, there is another
relative pause before the primary energy that sweeps the mean
long wave trof thru the area ejects Saturday night into Sunday.
The flow is parallel with the front and offers good training
potential for this round of potentially heavy rain, with the
main axis showing up south of here but potentially hitting our
area east of the Lakes in the southern Pennyrile...something to
keep an eye upon. Some small probs associated with the CIPS
analogs suggest perhaps a first hint at stronger storm potential
but again, placement is everything and with that the model main
themes have been south of here but close enough to keep a close
eye upon. Overall, weekend storm total qpf upward to about 2
inches is currently forecast.
Temperatures will be warming up nicely, with Saturday offering
the warmest such day with highs in the mid 60s as dew points
climb into the mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 503 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
MVFR conditions at mainly KMVN will lift to VFR later tonight.
Intermittent light rain will continue overnight into Wednesday
across the region, with the highest risk impacting the western
terminals. As another disturbance approaches, MVFR cigs and vsby
reductions will return at both KCGI/KMVN around midday. Light &
variable winds tonight will be easterly between 5-7 kts on
Wednesday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DW
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 24, 5:04 PM CST---------------
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