ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 23, 6:49 AM EST146
FXUS61 KILN 231149
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
649 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the region today and tonight,
dissipating on Tuesday as high pressure builds to the north.
This high will slowly transit to the east, leaving an easterly
flow over the Ohio Valley through Thursday. A low chance of
rain will remain over the area as disjointed mid level energy
transits the region through this time.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Partly cloudy skies early will see increased mid and high level
clouds this morning, then lower stratus and an increasing chance
of rain in the late day. This is occurring well ahead of a cold
front that remains northwest of the CWA until Tuesday, when it
crosses over and dissipates in the late day. Low chances of rain
will be found as the funnelled moisture is wrung out late today
and this evening underneath upper level s/w energy that is
moving eastward.
Highs will be in the low 40s north to mid 40s south and some
upper 40s further south of the Ohio River.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Exiting s/w energy will bring a chance of rain to the region
tonight and early Tuesday as an upper low in lower MI moves
eastward. The best chance will lie over central OH, beginning a
earliest in west central OH and ending later over southeast OH.
With upper ridging and a dissipating cold front any lingering
rain will disperse on Tuesday. However, cloud cover will hang
tough and some passing sprinkles will remain a possibility.
Tonights lows will drop to the mid 30s and Tuesday will be
slightly cooler in the south with readings ranging from 40-45.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For Tuesday night into Wednesday, Christmas Day, some weak
embedded mid level disturbances will pass across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley region. This will result in mostly cloudy skies
along with a chance of rain. Forcing will be weak, so any rain
would be light. Lows in the 30s will give way to highs in the
40s.
A lull in the precipitation threat is then expected Wednesday
night into Thursday as the mid level disturbances continue to
weaken as they move east. This will then allow a weak mid level
ridge to develop over the region. This period will also mark the
start of a warming trend. After lows mainly in the 30s, highs
will range from the mid 40s north to the lower 50s south.
A couple of more weather systems will affect our area Friday
and into the weekend, with the stronger system arriving on
Sunday. This will result in more chances of rain (higher PoPs)
along with warm temperatures for late December. Lows will warm
into the 40s with highs warming into the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail over the north this morning, and a
5-6kft sc deck will nose into the region from the west between
15-18Z. MVFR cigs will be working in with upper level s/w
energy. Rain will develop as it crosses, reaching DAY first,
CMH/LCK, then ILN and finally CVG/LUK. Vsbys are expected to
remain VFR, but cigs should lower to IFR at the end of the
forecast period.
Southwest flow ahead of the front will increase to 10-15kt,
strongest at DAY which will see some gusts to maybe 20kt. Not a
particularly gusty day as warm advection in sw flow will be the
driving force. Warm advection just does not mix down winds as
the overturning cold air would with a fropa which is not in the
cards with this brief period of expected rainfall.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions likely into Tuesday. MVFR/IFR
ceilings possible Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Franks
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 23, 6:49 AM EST---------------
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