JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 23, 7:30 AM EST149
FXUS63 KJKL 231230
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
730 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warming trend is expected through the rest of the week.
- There will be a potential for rain at times from tonight into
early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 AM EST MON DEC 23 2024
No major changes were made. Recalculated diurnal temperature
trend based off recent observations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM EST MON DEC 23 2024
High pressure will remain over the state today, leading to dry
conditions under southerly winds. Warm advection will help drive
temperatures up into the upper 40s to lower 50s this afternoon.
Clouds will begin to work in around sunset, from the northwest
ahead of the next system. Lows Monday night will drop into the mid
to lower 30s.
Tuesday, a weakening cold front will move out of the Ohio Valley
providing some shower chances confined mainly north of the
Mountain Parkway, with low chances of seeing any accumulating
rainfall (> 0.01"). In fact, looking at the Grand Ensemble,
Fleming and Rowan counties were the only counties with 40-50%
probability of seeing a hundreth of an inch. As such, most areas
will see mostly cloudy skies, with northern counties seeing a
sprinkle or two in the morning. Winds will be light out of the
southwest, leading to highs in the upper 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 425 AM EST MON DEC 23 2024
The period is expected to begin with several rather narrow ridges
and troughs across or extending across portions of North America.
At that time, a trough is expected to extend across the
Maritimes to the Mid Atlantic coast, a shortwave ridge with an
axis from the southeast Conus across the Lower OH Valley/KY to
the Great Lakes to portions of Ontario and Quebec, a trough from
near Hudson Bay south to portions of the Southern Plains, another
ridge to the west with an axis from Mexico across NM and CO to
the western parts of the Dakotas to near the Manitoba and
Saskatchewan border, while yet with another trough further west
from BC to the Northwest Conus to CA with yet another shortwave
upstream of that in the Pacific. Within the trough from near
Hudson Bay to the Southern Plains, a more norther shortwave is
anticipated over Canada into the Upper MS Valley while another
shortwave is expected from KS/OK to TX. At the surface, an area
of low pressure is expected to be centered near the Arklatex
vicinity as the period begins and would be associated with this
more southern shortwave. Further north and northeast, a sfc low
is expected to be centered to the east of Cape Cod initially,
with a weakening cold front south and then southwest to NC across
parts of the Southern Appalachians to the Lower OH and MS Valley
where is should be stationary. Meanwhile a ridge of high pressure
centered in Quebec should extend into the Mid Atlantic states to
the central and northern Appalachians.
From Tuesday night to Wednesday night, the rather low amplitude
ridges and troughs are expected to shift east and northeast with
the initial more northern shortwave that extended into the Upper
MS Valley working across the western and Central Great Lakes and
into the eastern Great Lakes while the shortwave ridge axis should
shift across the Commonwealth Tuesday night to Wednesday morning
while the shortwave initially over parts of the Southern Plains
is progged to move into the Lower OH Valley to TN Valley and
dampen considerably. Meanwhile the trough that begins the period
nearer to the west coast of the Conus should reach the
Plains/Central Conus at that point while the next trough should
reach the west coast of the Conus. During this time, the weak
frontal zone should lift a bit north and northeast across KY
toward the OH River with the first sfc low weakening as it moves
along it in response to the dampening associated shortwave
trough. A new sfc low should begin to take shape over TX by Wed
into Wed night.
Thursday to Friday night, the weakening shortwave trough should
cross KY on Thu with shortwave ridging in behind that crossing KY
late on Thu into Thu night. There remains model spread with how
quickly the ridge axis moves east of eastern KY with the last two
operational GFS runs and the 12Z operational ECMWF from the 22nd
slower than the 00Z operational ECMWF and there is also spread
with its strength and the evolution and position of a trough over
the Central Conus as well. The faster solutions have another
shortwave moving from the southern Plains to the Lower OH
Valley/Mid MS Valley regions more quickly and across the area late
Thu to Fri while guidance with a stronger ridge to the east bring
the next shortwave across the Commonwealth Fri night or even
later. The sfc low initially over TX on Thu morning should track
to the KS City vicinity through around dawn on Fri per the
guidance consensus and then toward the IA/MN/WI border region by
late Fri night. The frontal zone initially stretching across the
OH Valley should lift toward the Great Lakes.
Saturday to Sunday, guidance suggests a more amplified pattern by
this point with the axis of trough initially over the Central
Conus moving into the eastern Conus and perhaps across eastern KY
by the end of the period while ridging builds across portions of
the western Conus by the end of the weekend. There remains
considerable spread in the details/evolution of this trough as it
moves east and the timing of when it might cross eastern KY. The
sfc system preceding the next trough axis moving toward and
eventually into the eastern COnus should track to the northern
Great Lakes and toward portions of Ontario with the trailing cold
front entering and perhaps crossing the Commonwealth.
With the initial boundary over the region at midweek and passing
disturbances to interact with it, showers cannot be ruled out on
Christmas Day, but the last two GFS operational runs and the 00Z
ECMWF are suggesting that the day could end up dry (drier than
some previous operational runs such as the 12Z ECMWF. If this
trend continues, pops would need to reduced in future forecast
cycles. With system moving into the OH Valley expected to
generally dampen and then be followed by a period of shortwave
upper ridging, a minimum in pops to 10 percent or lower is
anticipated from Wed night to Thu night. Again, depending on
trends, this period of a minimum in pops could begin earlier on
Christmas Eve night or Christmas Day.
Although uncertainty in timing remains, the end of the week/
weekend appears unsettled at this point the next trough approaches
along with a sfc boundary by the end of the weekend. Slight chance
or greater pops were forecast from late Friday through the weekend
in the NBM and this fits the general anticipated pattern with the
highest pops areawide Saturday into Sunday.
With the region largely in the warm sector much of the period,
temperatures will be mild with lows mainly from the mid 30s to mid
40s for Tue night to Fri night and even milder in the mid 40s to
around 50 range for Sat night ahead of the sfc cold front. Highs
will also be mile and trend to 5 to 10 degrees above normal for
Wed to Thu and then 10 to 15 degrees above normal by the weekend.
With the mild pattern in place, precipitation during the entire
period will fall as rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EST MON DEC 23 2024
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. High clouds creep
in from the west today. Winds will remain light and variable
under 5 kts tonight into this morning before increasing to
between 5 and 10 kts (strongest toward Central Kentucky) from the
south on this afternoon. Mid level clouds will work in heading
into this evening, leading to low end VFR conditions ahead of the
next weather system.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 23, 7:30 AM EST---------------
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