LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 15, 5:42 PM CST ...New AVIATION...623
FXUS64 KLIX 152342
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
542 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024
Well above average temperatures across the region this afternoon
with BTR nearing records high territory for the date. At this
juncture just one degree shy of a tie. So, why so warm? Upper
level ridging is taking shape across the northern Gulf. Albeit
modest, it's just enough coupled with low level return flow to
allow at least inland locations to warm about 15 degrees above
climo. This pattern will remain in place through the start of the
new workweek. Outside of this and perhaps a few streamer showers
developing in the low level fetch over the Gulf, the only other
mentionable item would be fog potential. The overall signal is
there in the PROB guidance etc., but one thing that does stand out
is surface winds and the more easterly direction. With a bit
lighter low level flow, think that low stratus/fog will again be
possible for the Monday morning commute. For now, no headlines,
but we'll need to monitor the inversion on the 16/00z LIX RAOB,
which will likely fill in most of the uncertainty gaps. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024
Long term begins rather benign with just a continuation of the
short term pattern into Tuesday. Surface pressure gradient should
be relaxing further, and again cannot rule out some fog potential
that morning. From this point on the pattern begins to change. A
cold front will finally begin marching southward toward our region
as the parent upper trough begins to amplify over the Mississippi
River Valley. Globals are in a bit better agreement with
timing...late Wednesday or early Thursday. As for rain potential,
models are still trending dry so once again dropped POPs from the
consensus blend output. Cannot rule out a shower or two up in
Wilkinson or Amite Counties, but overall rain chances with this
feature have dropped a good bit this weekend.
As the front moves through CAA will take shape and low level flow
will switch to a moderate northerly flow. Overnight low and
daytime highs will be at or slightly below normal, but nothing
really to write home about for this time of year Thursday and
Friday. That said, a stronger front moves through early next
weekend allowing temperatures to drop well below average with the
potential for freezing temperatures coming into view. The last few
cycles, the upper trough looks to have overall shifted slightly
east of our CWFA at least the axis, which means perhaps not nearly
as cold as we were seeing just a couple of days ago, but
nevertheless back to below average for the weekend before
Christmas. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024
Mixture of VFR to IFR conditions are ongoing right now but
terminals are expected to have deteriorating conditions down to
IFR or lower overnight into the early morning hours either due to
low ceilings or low visibility (or both). Conditions then should start
to improve around 15/16z. -BL
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024
Relatively light and moderate easterly or southeasterly winds will
continue through midweek or so. At times, winds, especially beyond
20nm may flirt with cautionary headline criteria. A strong cold
front will push through the waters late Wednesday and into
Thursday increasing northerly surface winds in its wake. Cannot
rule out the need for SCAs on Thursday, especially beyond 20nm.
(Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 60 74 58 75 / 10 30 30 10
BTR 64 79 61 79 / 0 30 20 10
ASD 61 76 56 76 / 0 10 10 0
MSY 63 76 59 73 / 0 10 10 0
GPT 60 72 55 72 / 0 10 0 0
PQL 57 76 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 15, 5:42 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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