LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 24, 2:47 AM EST908
FXUS63 KLMK 240747
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
247 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Brief light rain or sprinkles possible this morning. Temperatures
fairly steady in the 40s today.
* Above normal temperatures Tuesday through the end of the week.
Multiple disturbances to bring rain chances most days.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024
An upper level shortwave trough is dropping southeast over eastern
Canada and the Great Lakes this morning. A very weak sfc boundary
extends southwest through DTW and STL. A 30-35 kt WSW LLJ is in
place over southern IN and north-central KY early this morning,
where scattered light rain and sprinkles are ongoing. The parent
wave will swing east to New England this morning, leaving behind a
diffuse frontal zone. The loss of low to mid-level ascent will
result in diminishing radar returns through the mid to late morning
hours. Relatively dry conditions should then linger through the
afternoon and early evening hours.
Overall, it looks like a rather dreary and damp day. The chance for
measurable precipitation is actually fairly low, with only very
light rain and sprinkles early in the day. Temperatures are in the
low to mid 40s in most places early this morning and should only dip
slightly through daybreak. Expect a small diurnal temperature range
through the next 24 hours with abundant moisture and cloud cover.
Highs today will be in the mid to upper 40s for most. Temperatures
may briefly reach the low 50s in southern KY. Temperatures are
forecast to drop back into the upper 30s to lower 40s early
Christmas morning.
Tonight, the next upper level shortwave trough begins to move east
from the Plains toward the MS Valley. With the moisture already in
place, weak low-level ascent and WAA should be enough to generate
light rain in southern IN and western KY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024
Cloudy and warm for late December with chances for rain on Christmas
Day as stationary frontal boundary remains positioned over the area.
Highs in the lower 50s on Wednesday will be about 7 to 10 degrees
above normal. The frontal boundary will start to move northward as a
warm front Thursday into the coming weekend with high temperatures
reaching well above normal for late December into the upper 50s and
lower 60s (on the order of 14-17 degrees above normal) with more
chances for rain as a cold front approaches from the west
Saturday/Sunday. At this point, early indications show that a
decrease in temperatures heading into next week is unlikely.
Model atmospheric profiles show a lack of instability and
temperatures above freezing, so not expecting any snowfall or severe
weather potential for the long term forecast through the coming
weekend. However, GFS model soundings are starting to hint at a
more unstable atmosphere for a storm system heading into the middle
of next week around NYE with CAPE and wind dynamics (0-1 KM and 0-6
KM shear numbers) elevated. While confidence is low at this point
for any severe weather, we'll have to keep an eye on this system
evolution in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024
Impacts...
* MVFR CIGS developing late tonight at HNB and Tue AM at SDF, then
LEX.
VFR to begin this forecast period, but CIGS are likely to
deteriorate to MVFR from NW to SE across HNB, SDF, and then LEX
between 08-15Z Tue. A very weak front currently extending from near
DET to LAF to STL will sink southeast over the Ohio Valley today.
Scattered light rain and sprinkles are ongoing this morning, and
this activity will diminish during the mid-morning hours.
Expect MVFR stratus to stick around at HNB, SDF, LEX and RGA through
the afternoon and evening hours. Low clouds will lift back to the
north late tonight.
SW winds 5-10 kt early this morning will go light and variable this
afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...EBW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 24, 2:47 AM EST---------------
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