JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 23, 3:17 AM EST909
FXUS63 KJKL 230817
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
317 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warming trend is expected through the rest of the week.
- There will be a potential for rain at times this evening through
Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM EST MON DEC 23 2024
High pressure will remain over the state today, leading to dry
conditions under southerly winds. Warm advection will help drive
temperatures up into the upper 40s to lower 50s this afternoon.
Clouds will begin to work in around sunset, from the northwest
ahead of the next system. Lows Monday night will drop into the mid
to lower 30s.
Tuesday, a weakening cold front will move out of the Ohio Valley
providing some shower chances confined mainly north of the
Mountain Parkway, with low chances of seeing any accumulating
rainfall (> 0.01"). In fact, looking at the Grand Ensemble,
Fleming and Rowan counties were the only counties with 40-50%
probability of seeing a hundreth of an inch. As such, most areas
will see mostly cloudy skies, with northern counties seeing a
sprinkle or two in the morning. Winds will be light out of the
southwest, leading to highs in the upper 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
Generally amplified, progressive flow aloft through the extended.
A series of troughs/lows will track generally west to east across
the TN/OH valleys during the period. However, overall wind fields
will be relatively weak through the extended, which speaks to the
general strengths of these systems being somewhat unimpressive.
At the surface, a weak frontal zone...at times frontal boundary
will be in the vicinity of the forecast area. The frontal zone in
combination with these weak disturbances (toughs aloft) will be
enough to kick of some isolated to scattered showers at times
through the period. However, our next best chance of significant
weather will hold off until the end of the week, or even next
weekend.
Sensible weather features a warming trend, with a small chance of
rain at times through the period. There is little if anything
with respect to hazardous weather. There is no indication of
thunder and ensemble probabilistic data does not highlight any
significant threats. Temperatures will run above normal, and daily
highs climbing to around 60, or possibly into the lower 60s by
the end of the week. Our temperatures, including overnight lows
will likely remain above freezing from Wednesday through the
remainder of the period. Total QPF through the period ranges from
around a half inch our far east to around an inch across our
western zones.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST MON DEC 23 2024
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. High clouds creep
in from the west today. Winds will remain light and variable
under 5 kts tonight into this morning before increasing to
between 5 and 10 kts (strongest toward Central Kentucky) from the
south on this afternoon. Mid level clouds will work in heading
into Monday evening, leading to low end VFR conditions ahead of
the next weather system.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 23, 3:17 AM EST---------------
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