LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 14, 5:28 PM CST ...New AVIATION...281
FXUS64 KLIX 142328
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
528 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 237 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024
A warmer day across the region with temperatures ranging from the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds are starting to becomes somewhat
less gusty out there as surface pressure gradient relaxes just a
bit. Upstream, we are watching a negatively tilted shortwave
trough spread east and eventually northeast toward the Great
Lakes. The surface cold frontal boundary will move just a bit
more before stalling well to our north and west. The low level ESE
or SE fetch continues, which has brought moisture back to the
region with dew points ranging from the upper 50s to the north to
60s further south. This fetch will continue into the night. This
brings two mentionable items to the forecast. First, due to the
influx of low level moisture and frictional convergence, some very
light shower activity will be possible, mainly along the
immediate coast or offshore. Next, with a moist environment
advecting over cooler SSTs, this will help generate fog or low
stratus across the region overnight tonight. Surface flow may be
just enough to keep stratus from building all the way to the
surface, but some visibility issues may arise in the form of
advection and/or stratus build down fog.
Going into Sunday the front to our north begins to lift away from
the region as a very weak H5 ridge sets up over the north Gulf of
Mexico. This naturally will promote above average temperatures
and mostly keep enough subsidence around to limit vertical extent
of any low level/boundary layer shower activity. As the surface
flow continues to relax, a decent signal for advection fog is
present for Sunday night and early Monday, so AM commutes may be
a bit tricky to start the new workweek. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 237 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024
Going into the new workweek, the H5 ridge remains over the
northern Gulf, which again will keep most of our region in above
average temperatures. To our north, a rather robust mid/upper
level short wave will be spread eastward over the Cornbelt region
and MO Ozarks. Thanks to our friendly ridge remaining to our
south, this feature will stick well to our north. Again, nonzero
rain chances with the low level fetch of slightly better quality
moisture over our region, but outside of frictional showers, not
much lift to help bust through the dry upper levels. Eventually,
the surface front hangs up after getting stuck in the mean flow
(generally southwesterly).
Tuesday and Wednesday look to be rather benign from a weather
perspective. Again, mostly a continuation of Sunday and Monday,
although the surface flow continues to decrease out ahead of our
next surface cold front due into the region sometime Thursday. I
say sometime because the globals don't seem to get along in terms
of timing with the ECMWF being about 12 hours or so faster with
the frontal passage on Thursday than the GFS. One change from the
package 24 hours ago is the QPF signal has really backed off
amongst the globals. Went from talking about potential storms to
barely any QPF at all with the frontal passage. Didn't go
completely dry yet, but we did hedge POP values downward from the
consensus blends to stay ahead of the dry trend. Behind the front,
CAA takes over dropping our temperatures back below average
through the end of the forecast period. And just beyond that a
secondary push of cold air is expected as a Canadian trough
amplifies over the eastern half of the country. For this timeframe
went with consensus blends for temps, but it's very likely that
the medium range temps may be a bit on the warmer side and
additional downward adjustments may ne necessary as time and
confidence evolves. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024
Mostly VFR conditions are expected this evening into the early
overnight hours when more widespread MVFR to IFR conditions will
be possible due to lower ceilings and visibilities due to fog. The
places most vulnerable to fog will be ones near bodies of water
(GPT, NEW). It should begin to dissipate after sunrise with some
possible lingering in the aforementioned terminals. -BL
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024
Southerly or southeasterly fetch will continue through the weekend
as pressure gradient remains intact over the local waters.
Although moderate winds and seas are expected, the thresholds for
SCA are no longer being met at this juncture. That said, intermittent
cautionary headlines expected through around midweek and perhaps
beyond depending on the evolution of the surface high pressure
along the eastern US Coast and an arctic push behind a cold front
later on in the week. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 57 72 58 73 / 10 10 10 30
BTR 61 78 63 78 / 10 10 10 30
ASD 59 75 59 75 / 0 10 0 10
MSY 61 76 62 75 / 0 10 0 10
GPT 58 70 58 72 / 10 10 0 0
PQL 56 74 57 75 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 14, 5:28 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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