MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 16, 11:05 PM CST ...New AVIATION, UPDATE...601
FXUS64 KMOB 170505
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1105 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024
...New AVIATION...UPDATE...
.UPDATE (Tonight into Tuesday)...
Issued at 1102 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024
VISBYs at points across the forecast area have begun to drop, with
the satellite loops showing decks of stratus moving north over
southeast Mississippi. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for most of
southwest Alabama and all of inland southeast Mississippi at this
point. This may need to be expanded as the night progresses.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024
IFR/LIFR conditions due to dense fog/stratus have begun to mix in
with MVFR/VFR conditions over the area. Am expecting the lower
conditions to expand and affect most areas along and west of the
Alabama River by sunrise. Conditions will mix out after sunrise,
with general MVFR/VFR conditions expected. Decreases in conditions
tonight is less clear at this point for Tuesday night.
/16
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 527 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024/
..New AVIATION...
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024
Mostly VFR conditions across the forecast area will drop to MVFR
levels this evening, with IFR/LIFR likely west of the Tombigbee
River as dense fog develops overnight. East of the river, the chance
of dense fog is less, with low end MVFR/local IFR expected. After
sunrise, conditions are expected to rise to general VFR levels, with
local MVFR CIGs.
/16
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024/
.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday night)
Issued at 402 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024
Nearly zonal upper flow tonight becomes more southwesterly
Tuesday and Tuesday night as an upper level shortwave moves east
across the central CONUS. At the surface, riding will continue to
extend down across the area from the northwest, with a mainly
light easterly to southeasterly low level flow continuing. A
frontal boundary will be gradually moving into the southeast CONUS
by late Tuesday night and will bring our next chance for rain,
but this looks to hold off into the early part of the longer term
forecast period beginning on Wednesday. The low level east to
southeasterly flow has allowed more moisture to work back into the
area, and as such the overnight fog potential is gradually
increasing. The question will be is it fog or low stratus, as low
level flow may remain just high keep it similar to last night
(when it was mainly low stratus). Models do have a little better
signal for fog tonight than they did last night though, and the
pattern and time of year is becoming more supportive for this, so
have maintained the patchy to areas (over the western zones) of
fog for tonight and Tuesday night as well. There could potentially
be some dense fog in some areas, particularly around the Mobile
Bay region and southeast MS, but after coordination with
surrounding offices will hold off on a Dense Fog Advisory for now.
Depending on how things develop, a Dense Fog Advisory may become
necessary for portions of the forecast area later this evening or
overnight, and we will continue to monitor for this possibility.
Skies will generally remain mostly cloudy through the period, with
a few stray showers possible (especially near the coast) but not
enough of a potential to warrant any PoPs. This pattern will keep
generally mild conditions across the area. Lows tonight and again
on Tuesday night will generally be in the low to mid 50s over
inland areas and mid to upper 50s closer to the coast and maybe a
few lower 60s along the beaches. Highs on Tuesday should be in the
low to mid 70s across the entire area. DS/12
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 402 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024
A change in pattern is one the way as dryer and cooler conditions
arrive late in the week. The only weather comes on Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening as an upper level shortwave tough
quickly moves across the Ohio River Valley. As this shortwave
lifts northeast, an associated strong surface cold front will
quickly sweep through the forecast area late Wednesday afternoon
through mid-evening. Precipitation chances remain about a 20-30
chance for some areas Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the
best chance across areas along and north of highway 84. Dry
conditions follow through the remainder of the forecast as a dome
of cold and dry high pressure builds into the region in the wake
of the front. Highs ahead of the front on Wednesday will be around
the mid 70s, and lows Wednesday night dropping off into the mid
40s to lower 50s, except for mid 50s along the coast. Temps trend
much colder in the wake of the front with the lowest temperatures
occurring over the weekend courtesy of a reinforcing cold front.
Lows Friday night through Sunday night will dip into the upper 20s
and 30s (about 5 to 10 degrees below normal), with the lowest
apparent temps in the 20s. High temps Saturday and Sunday struggle
to reach the low to mid 50s, or around 10 degrees below normal.
/22
MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024
A light, mainly east to southeast wind flow is expected over the
marine area through mid week. Patchy marine fog may be possible
tonight and Tuesday night, especially around the Mobile Bay area
and could potentially be locally dense at times. A strong but
mostly rainfree cold front moves across the marine area late
Wednesday and Wednesday night, with a stronger northerly flow and
higher seas expected in the wake of the front. Only hazards will
be the potential for dense fog and reduced visibility tonight and
Tuesday night, and then winds and waves could be hazardous to
small craft by mid to late week as the stronger offshore flow
develops. DS/12
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Tuesday for ALZ051>056-059-
261>266.
FL...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 16, 11:05 PM CST ...New AVIATION, UPDATE...---------------
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