LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 22, 2:42 AM EST885
FXUS63 KLMK 220742
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
242 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry and chilly today with a warming trend beginning Monday.
* Above normal temperatures Tuesday through the end of the week.
Multiple disturbances to bring rain chances most days.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 242 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024
Upper pattern will deamplify as the longwave trof pushes off the
East Coast and zonal flow sets up over most of the CONUS. Dry and
chilly weather continues as a 1036mb sfc high NE of Georgian Bay
remains in control.
The high will retreat eastward across southern Quebec today and into
northern New England by Monday morning. We'll see a slight wind
shift through the day here in the Ohio Valley, but only weak warm
advection after a cold start will only support persistence temps
with afternoon highs just either side of 40. Light SE winds tonight
will keep the boundary layer on the mixy side, so we'll see a quick
drop into the 20s this evening with nearly steady temps after
midnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 242 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024
Monday... Broad surface high pressure will be stretched over the
east coast, placing the Ohio Valley on the western side of the high.
Southwesterly flow and WAA will bring increased moisture and
temperatures into the region on Monday. The best moisture will still
remain to the west and northwest of the region, allowing for dry
conditions to continue on Monday. High temperatures will rise to
near normal values in the upper 40s and low 50s.
Monday Night - Tuesday (Christmas Eve)... Troughing and associated
low pressure center will move along the Great Lakes bringing a cold
front into the Ohio Valley. As this low pressure system moves to the
northeast, the aforementioned high pressure will retrograde back
west over the southeastern CONUS. the retrograding high pressure
will help to stall the front over the Ohio Valley. As the front
approaches the region, scattered showers will move into southern
Indiana and northern Kentucky. As upper forcing continues off to the
northeast, showers will steadily wane along the front.
Tuesday Night - Wednesday (Christmas Day)... Upper ridging will
build over the region and WAA will increase moisture and
temperatures to slightly above normal ahead of a dissipating surface
low pressure moving in from the ArkLaTex. Deep layer moisture over
the region and weakening (though present) upper troughing will bring
more scattered PoPs to the region on Wednesday. PoPs will diminish
as the system moves northeast over the region.
Thursday - Weekend... Guidance shows a good signal for ridging
centered over the eastern CONUS and WAA over the region on Thursday,
allowing temperature and moisture to rise above normal through the
weekend. EFI also confirms this signal for warmer than normal highs
and lows. Beyond these forecast elements, forecast confidence is
quite low. Seems that the Ohio Valley will be between deep troughing
over the Plains and ridging along the Appalachians, so PoPs will be
possible each day as even weak disturbances could easily bring
scattered showers into the region, given ample deep-layer moisture
that will be present. Amongst ensembles, PWATs are progged to be
within 1.0-1.3 inches, which is in the upper 90th percentile of
climatology.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024
VFR conditions and light winds expected as cold and dry high
pressure over the Great Lakes remains in control. Light winds from
the east during the day will veer to SE in the afternoon/evening as
the sfc high retreats toward New England.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...SRM
AVIATION...RAS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 22, 2:42 AM EST---------------
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