PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 19, 10:48 PM CST163
FXUS63 KPAH 200448
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1048 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Flurries to light snow are possible in the Evansville Tri-
State late tonight through Friday, with accumulations
currently projected to be limited to grassy and elevated
surfaces.
- Cooler weather is expected through the weekend.
- Warm and active weather is forecast next week with daily rain
chances, though the highest potential is Monday night through
Christmas Eve.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024
WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper lvl disturbance moving
into the Great Lakes. Surface ridging is breaking down as an
upstream surface low is moving in from the northwest. Moisture
will increase ahead of and with the passage of this upper
disturbance bringing increasing cloud cover tonight and into
Friday. A front with increasing CAA behind it may bring a few
flurries or light snow to northeast portions of the area as well.
Breezy northwest winds develop behind the front with winds
15-20 mph and gusts as high as 25-30mph. The cloud cover and
northerly winds should keep temperatures down into the 30's for
most areas with lows dropping into the 20's Friday night.
Northwest flow will remain across the area through the weekend
keeping below normal temperatures in place and dry weather.
A more active pattern returns for next week with a few systems
likely to bring chances for precipitation. After a disturbance
moves across the Great Plains early in the week, a boundary
looks to set up near the Quad State region. Chances of rain
enter the forecast late Monday and look to continue into
Christmas, with the highest chances expected late Monday into
Christmas Eve associated with another upper level disturbance.
Ensemble guidance supports cyclonic flow aloft centered over the
plains late in the week into the weekend. Several disturbances
are progged to move through this flow providing for additional
chances of rain/storms in the forecast. Temperatures during the
week will warm above normal, into the 50's by Christmas Day, and
near 60 degrees on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024
VFR conditions will linger through late tonight/early Friday
morning before MVFR ceilings between 2000-3000ft filter in from
the north. Wind will also become gusty overnight into Friday on
cold air advecting into the region. Gusts could easily reach
into the 20 to 30 kt range through Friday afternoon before
diminishing in the evening.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 19, 10:48 PM CST---------------
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