IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 17, 6:20 PM EST122
FXUS63 KIWX 172320
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
620 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* There is a chance for a mix of light snow and rain late tonight
through early Wednesday afternoon. Roads should remain wet with
little to no accumulation.
* A clipper system tracks through Thursday night into Friday with
chances for light snow. Accumulations up to 1" possible.
* Colder with lake effect snow possible near Lake Michigan
Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024
Late tonight into Wednesday morning still featuring the
potential for a quick hit of light snow/rain for some as a
disjointed Central Plains shortwave tracks east through the
area. The associated weak sfc frontal wave and better moisture
advection will be displaced well south across KY during this
time, though models do print out some spotty light QPF with more
elevated isentropic upglide and a brief higher based fgen
signal that pivots east through the local area Wednesday morning
into early Wednesday afternoon. Thermals are marginal for rain
vs snow with expectations for a light mix to start, changing to
a brief period of primarily wet snow (mainly north and east).
Colder air does wrap in behind this system with scattered lake
effect flurries/light snow showers in the north Wednesday
afternoon-evening. Travel impacts are currently not anticipated.
Clipper system then follows through late Thursday into Friday with
next chance for light precipitation, this time primarily snow. This
system does outrun a more substantial baroclinic zone into a drier
air mass, with a resulting weakening trend to the associated sfc
reflection and precip shield as it drops southeast into the local
area Thursday night into Friday morning. An inch of system snow
appears possible, best chances north of US 30.
Later Friday into the upcoming weekend will feature colder
northerly flow in wake of the clipper system. This will bring
periodic lake effect snow chances into the forecast Friday PM into
Saturday near Lake MI, though deterministic and ensemble model
guidance continue to differ with low level flow trajectories at this
forecast range. Trending milder then into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024
VFR will persist through most of the overnight period. Another
weak shortwave will cross the region Wed morning and bring a
brief period of light rain/snow (mainly at KSBN where the better
fgen signal resides). Brief IFR is likely at KSBN with much lower
confidence in IFR at KFWA. This activity will exit by the
afternoon but MVFR stratus will likely remain into the evening.
There is also a chance for some light lake effect snow/drizzle
at KSBN Wed evening but confidence is much too low to mention
this far out.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM EST Thursday
for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 17, 6:20 PM EST---------------
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