ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 18, 12:57 AM EST030
FXUS61 KILN 180557
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1257 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken this evening, and the next weather
system will bring rain across the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.
Cooler and drier conditions will return for Thursday, with
additional chances for light rain or snow on Friday. Arctic air
comes back into the Ohio Valley this weekend before a warming
trend evolves for Christmas week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Area of showers and embedded thunder has developed in the lower
Ohio Valley in a zone of warm air advection. This is in advance
of a short wave that will emerge out of the central Plains. The
area of precipitation will expand into the forecast area during
the overnight hours. Cannot completely rule out some thunder in
far southern counties, but most likely that will stay further
south in Kentucky. Still looks like greatest coverage of rain
will be along and south/east of I-71.
Lows will be reached this evening, then as thicker cloud cover
moves in readings will steady or even rise just a bit. Thus, if
precipitation spreads as far north as west central Ohio, expect
it to be just rain through daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Precipitation overspreads the CWA Wednesday morning. Much of
this will be rain, however can't rule out a little wet snow
mixing in at the onset across portions of west-central or
central Ohio. While much of the CWA should see measurable
rainfall, the latest trend is for the highest amounts to reside
across the southeast portion of the CWA - but even this looks
mainly in the 1/2 inch to 1 inch range. Rain chances will
generally diminish from west to east Wednesday afternoon.
Northern areas could see a little snow mix in toward the end,
but no accumulation nor impact is expected. Drier air moves in
Wednesday night.
High temperatures will range from the upper 30s north to the
upper 40s over the south. Colder air moves in Wednesday night,
with upper 20s to lower 30s common across the CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As the cold air settles into the region, cloudy but quiet conditions
under CAA for Thursday. While southerly flow returns late Thursday
into Thursday night, any attempt at WAA will be disrupted by a
clipper system approaching the region from the upper MS Valley.
Thursday night lows will be in the upper 20s.
The clipper will push through the region quickly through the day on
Friday, though not much deep moisture to work with. So while it'll
bring mostly snow and snow showers across the northern 2/3 of the
forecast area, limited moisture should struggle to yield even just a
few tenths of an inch of accumulation based on current thinking.
Have raised precipitation potential, but still expecting low QPF
amounts and therefor not much accumulation. Temperature profile a
bit tricky, with generally mid 30s most of the area, but into the
upper 30s along and east of the I-71 corridor.
Another shot of cold air but lingering clouds behind the clipper
Friday night with lows 20-25.
Colder than normal temperatures settle in for the weekend, with dry
conditions. Highs on Saturday near 30 to approaching mid 30s in the
south, with clearing skies and more optimum radiational cooling
bringing lows in the teens Saturday and Sunday night. Southerly flow
returns, bringing a return to near normal temperatures for the
beginning of the workweek, with a return to a more active pattern at
the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Although skies are mostly clear for the start of the TAF period,
widespread/thickening clouds will overspread the sites
progressively from SW to NE through 09z, with RA expanding in
coverage locally toward daybreak. VFR CIGs will transition to
MVFR, and potentially IFR, by 15z-18z, before the widespread
pcpn moves off to the SE past mid afternoon. MVFR VSBYs are
expected with the steadiest/heaviest pcpn. Drier conditions
evolve past 18z through the remainder of the TAF period,
although a few flurries will be possible by/after 00z,
especially in the N, in the CAA regime.
MVFR CIGs will linger through Wednesday night into early
Thursday. Light E winds around 5-7kts through early this
morning will go more out of the NE toward 12z, eventually going
out of the NNW following the FROPA past 18z. A few gusts to
18kts or so will be possible past 18z amidst CAA.
OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings and MVFR to IFR visibilities likely on
Friday. The MVFR ceilings may persist into Friday night and
Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 18, 12:57 AM EST---------------
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