BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 16, 10:08 PM EST834
FXUS61 KBOX 170308
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1008 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A period of showers is expected late tonight into early Tuesday
morning, then drying out the rest of the day and unseasonably mild.
Dry weather prevails Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon, but
a fast moving weather pattern likely yields another period of rain
late Wednesday into early Thursday, and perhaps again Friday into
Saturday. This will be followed by very cold and blustery weather
this weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM update...
Periods of warm frontal rain continue to overspread the region
late this evening and will continue overnight. Surface temps
have warmed above freezing across western/central MA, thus the
risk for any slippery travel has ended. Becoming breezy along
the south coast, as low level jet approaches. SSE winds gusting
up to 30 mph from BID to Long Island and CT coastline. This is
advecting dew pts into the low 50s across the area, thus warming
temps overnight. This moisture advection will lead to areas of
patchy fog. Previous forecast captures these details, therefore
no changes with this update.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Drying out and much warmer Tuesday.
By mid morning Tuesday much of the rain has exited or is just
exiting far eastern MA as the transient shortwave exits east and
mid level heights begin to rise. While we'll start the day
cloudy, increasingly drier air filters in and and the afternoon
should feature plenty of sun across SNE. Very warm temperatures
will accompany the sun as the mild S/SW flow continues through
part of the day, resulting in high temperatures in the mid to
upper 50s. For comparison, the average would be the low to mid
40s. A cold front will drop in from NW to SE late in the day
bringing cooler temperatures to the interior by late Tue and for
southeast MA overnight, though even these lows (30s) will be a
bit above normal. The overnight hours will be quiet as surface
high pressure moves overhead with weak ridging in the mid
levels.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Active weather pattern through this weekend, featuring the
passage of several systems accompanied by periods of
precipitation.
* Arctic air moves into region by end of this week, bringing
below normal temperatures for this weekend.
Latest guidance suite does not show the active pattern settling
down much. Have moderate confidence in the details into
Thursday, then confidence in the details, such as timing and
location, lowers into this weekend. The overall theme looks
consistent, but the timing may change with later forecasts.
Generally expecting two rounds of precipitation during this part
of the forecast. The first looks to be sometime Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday morning, and the second some time Friday
into Saturday. Expecting mainly rainfall with this first event,
with snow possible across the higher terrain of western and
central MA, especially at night. A similar situation for the
late week system, where a mix of rain and snow is possible. Snow
appears to be more likely across the interior, but where the
rain/snow line sets up is still uncertain. Southern New England
looks to be sandwiched between a low pressure moving from the
Great Lakes into Canada and an offshore low pressure. Still a
lot of things to be resolved with later forecasts this week.
Above normal temperatures expected into Thursday, then should
trend below normal by Friday into this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
03z update...no changes. Downward trends overnight with
improvement towards 12z from west to east, but waiting until
12z-15z across eastern MA. Earlier discussion below.
-------------------------------------------------------
Tonight...Moderate Confidence
Conditions will lower to mainly IFR levels. While a few
scattered showers are possible this evening, a period of steady
rain should impact the area late tonight into early Tue morning.
S winds 5 to 15 knots and we do expect some gusts near 25 knots
toward daybreak across the Cape/Islands. LLWS will also be an
issue for the terminals as a modest low level jet develops.
Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.
The last of the remaining showers should exit the southeast New
England coast by mid-morning or so on Tue. Otherwise, MVFR-IFR
conditions early in the morning should improve to mainly VFR by
mid afternoon. This process may take a few hours longer towards
the Cape and Islands.
Tuesday night...High confidence.
VFR. W winds 5-10 kts.
KBOS TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF... Moderate Confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
RA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.
Thursday Night: VFR.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, slight chance
SN.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SN,
RA likely.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SN.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight and Tuesday...High Confidence.
A shortwave trough passing to our north will induce a modest
southwest low level jet tonight into Tue. Despite the inversion
over the relatively cool waters, still expect SW wind gusts of
20 to 30 knots tonight into the middle of Tue afternoon before
gradually starting to diminish. Small craft headlines posted
most waters tonight into Tue.
Tuesday night...High confidence.
W winds 15-20 kts, decreasing toward sunrise. Seas 2-5 ft
decreasing through the overnight hours.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Rain likely.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain
likely, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 20 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of snow, chance of rain.
Visibility 1 to 3 nm.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237-
251.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/BW
NEAR TERM...Belk/BW/Nocera
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/BW/Nocera
MARINE...Belk/BW
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 16, 10:08 PM EST----------------
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