PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 2:54 AM CST409
FXUS63 KPAH 120854
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
254 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather conditions are in store for Thursday and Friday as
high pressure builds into the region. A warming trend will
cause high temperatures to return to the 40s and 50s.
- Saturday begins a period of unsettled weather with the next
disturbance bringing a period of rain midday Saturday into
Saturday night. Another system quickly follows on Monday with
the potential for some embedded thunderstorms. Rainfall
totals between 1 to 2 inches are expected.
- Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal Saturday
through Monday, followed by a return to more seasonable
conditions through the middle of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024
Rising heights aloft will lead to a warming trend after a cold start
to the morning as a 120 kt jet streak at 250 mb passes over the
FA. In the wake of a 500 mb shortwave that will move onshore
over California today, a ~1036 mb sfc high pressure will build
SE of the Dakotas across the FA through Friday providing
tranquil weather conditions. As a warm front lifts north,
southerly return flow and WAA around 850-700 mb will support
some passing mid-level clouds; otherwise, dry weather conditions
will prevail through the end of the week. A large diurnal range
can be expected from north to south with maxTs ranging from the
upper 30s to upper 40s with minTs in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
Meanwhile, Friday will be milder across the entire FA with maxTs
in the mid 40s to low 50s and minTs in the mid to upper 30s.
The weekend will begin a period of transient unsettled weather as a
series of waves move across the CONUS through the middle of next
week. Saturday will be the wetter of the two days over the weekend
as the aformentioned shortwave develops into a closed low and ejects
across MO/IA proving forcing for ascent. This energy will be
responsible for the first wave of stratiform pcpn on Saturday. Did
slow NBM PoPs down a bit as the 0z deterministic models have trended
slower with the bulk of the rain now moving through midday
Saturday into Saturday night from west to east. While a few
lingering showers remain possible on Sunday with a frontal
boundary nearby, a lull is likely until the next disturbance
arrives Monday into Monday night with a trailing cold front.
Unlike the first system, the moisture transport will be less
modest with dewpoints rising into the upper 50s to near 60
degrees. This may support some convective and thunder potential
as a 850 mb LLJ ramps up in the afternoon. While the shear looks
to be favorable, instability is very meager on most of the
model guidance. The one exception is the 00z ECMWF with
individual ensemble members supporting ~250-750 J/kg of MUCAPE.
Confidence is still very low if this could translate to any
severe potential, but if dewpoints trend closer to 63-64
degrees, the thermodynamics would become more favorable. Total
QPF between the two systems looks to be between 1 to 2 inches.
While WPC is leaning slightly higher, there is some uncertainty
in where the heavy axis will setup as it is contingent on
convection.
Temps Saturday through Monday will be running 5-10 degrees
above normal with maxTs in the 50s. Monday in particular will
be even warmer with maxTs rising near to slightly above 60
degrees. MinTs each night will fall into the 40s. Meanwhile,
while temps trend more seasonable for the middle of the week,
the pattern remains unsettled with the potential for another
system into the latter half.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 535 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024
High pressure is building into the region this evening. Winds
will become light overnight, before veering toward the south
around 5-6 kts on Thursday. Skies will continue to clear out,
with some high level clouds moving back into the MVN vicinity
Thu morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...AD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 2:54 AM CST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
