CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 13, 9:15 PM EST276
FXUS61 KCLE 140215
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
915 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will depart to the
northeast Saturday night. Low pressure will weaken as it tracks
from the Plains towards the western Great Lakes over the
weekend. A warm front will lift north across the area on Monday
followed by a series of cold fronts sweeping east through the
middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
9:15 PM Update...
Lake effect showers across Northwest Pennsylvania have come to
an end this evening as high pressure continues to build over the
region. Clear and chilly tonight will low temperatures dropping
into the teens areawide. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged.
Previous discussion...
Residual lake effect snow showers continue off Lake Erie
despite high pressure being centered overhead and inversion
heights of 7K feet or less. Snow ratios remain high with a light
fluffy snow that has amounted to several inches in a few
locations in Erie County PA. The snow is expected to finally
diminish this evening across Lake, Ashtabula, and Erie counties
as moisture depth decreases and convergence weakens through 00Z.
Temperatures will fall quickly this evening with light winds.
Passing cirrus in the west will keep temperatures a little
warmer for NW Ohio while NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania will see
some locations dip to near 10 degrees. Wind chills will not be
much of a factor tonight given wind speeds generally less than 5
mph.
Saturday will trend warmer into the 30s with the upper level ridge
axis overhead. As a trough moves out of the Plains into the
western Great Lakes on Saturday night we will see moisture
return to the area. Rain is forecast to reach the I-75 corridor
by late evening then expand east through the I-77 corridor
through sunrise. The main concern heading into Saturday night
are boundary layer temperatures that may be near or below
freezing with an inversion aloft reinforced by a low level jet
pumping warm air north in the layer above. Locations south of a
Findlay to Bucyrus line will likely be warm enough to experience
a cold rain while locations to the north and east have a chance
of seeing a window of freezing rain. That window looks pretty
brief in NW Ohio as dewpoints climb above the freezing mark with
higher qpf amounts. Any trace amounts of icing in NW Ohio will
likely melt quickly. The eastward extent of precipitation is a
little less clear with high pressure and drier air to the east
limiting the qpf. However this area will be colder and
dewpoints will remain in the mid 20s. Evaporational cooling
will pull temperatures down a degree or two at the onset and
have lowered mins slightly for Saturday night. Icing amounts
between a trace and tenth of an inch are possible, depending on
the timing of the rain and the gradually warming boundary layer.
By Sunday temperatures will continue to warm and lingering ice
will melt. Stay tuned for updates as we refine details. A Winter
Weather Advisory may be needed for Saturday night for a portion
of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An active short term period is in store as a pair of low pressure
systems impact the Great Lakes region.
The first system will be weakening as it arrives Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Cold air will be in place ahead of the system, aided
by strong 1048 mb surface high pressure across New England.
Continued mention of mixed precipitation, including the potential
for freezing rain Sunday morning as low-level cold air will be slow
to retreat underneath a stout temperature inversion. Expect all
precipitation to eventually transition over to rain by the
afternoon. Total ice accumulations will be less than a tenth of an
inch, but may result in isolated slick spots where ground
temperatures are cooler.
Strong warm air advection is expected to arrive Sunday night into
Monday as another stronger system lifts a warm front north through
the region, ushering in above-average temperatures in the 50s.
Confidence is high that broad isentropic ascent aided by a strong
southwesterly LLJ of 50 to 60 knots will result in widespread
precipitation across the region on Monday, with moderate to perhaps
heavy rainfall at times. Between the two systems, total rainfall
amounts will range between 1 and 1.50 inches. Isolated higher
amounts up to 2 inches are also possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A low confidence forecast is in store for the long term period,
particularly Wednesday through Friday as a pair of potent upper-
level troughs sweep east across the Eastern CONUS. Quiet weather is
favored on Tuesday as an upper-level ridge briefly builds across the
Eastern CONUS.
A sharp and deep upper-level trough will move east through the Great
Lakes on Wednesday into Thursday, extending a cold front through the
region. This upper-level trough will elicit a surface cyclogenesis
response in the right entrance region of the jet streak across the
Southeast CONUS on Wednesday, though confidence remains low on any
potential impacts to our area. The second upper-level trough appears
both deeper and broader and will likely bring down much colder air
across the Great Lakes by Friday night. Will need to monitor this
second upper-level trough for potential accumulating lake effect
snow concerns into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Continued VFR conditions across all TAF sites through the
period. High pressure over the region will allow for dry
conditions to persist through Saturday evening. High level
clouds will gradually increase Saturday afternoon from west to
east ahead of our next system.
Light easterly winds between 5-8 knots will gradually turn
southeasterly while increasing to 8-12 knots by the end of the
TAF window.
Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are possible Saturday night
through Monday with rain showers moving into the region. There
is a low probability of light icing as rain arrives Saturday
night at CLE/MFD/CAK/YNG.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions are expected to persist into Sunday with
light, offshore flow of 10 to 15 knots. Offshore flow will increase
to 15 to 20 knots on Sunday, though think conditions will stay just
below Small Craft criteria. Stronger offshore flow of 15 to 25 knots
will arrive ahead of another system Monday night into Tuesday,
followed by westerly winds of 20 to 25 knots behind a cold front on
Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed across the central
and eastern basins of Lake Erie Monday night through Tuesday. Quiet
marine conditions appear to return on Wednesday as westerly winds
decrease to 10 to 15 knots.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/Iverson
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...Kahn
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 13, 9:15 PM EST---------------
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