PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 11, 5:17 AM CST246
FXUS63 KPAH 111117
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
517 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler temperatures today and tomorrow.
- Warming back up late week into early next week.
- Rain chances return Friday evening through Sunday. More rain possible
again on Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024
A large trof axis aloft is passing through this morning and has
brought some light snow and flurries to eastern portions of the area
overnight. A tightening of the sfc gradient today will also bring
breezy winds this afternoon. Model consensus on precip chances for
this afternoon have trended drier. Soundings show a significant dry
layer up to around 5,000 ft. The HRRR in particular shows some
saturation above this layer and in the DGZ, so we could maybe
squeeze out a few sprinkles/flurries (depending on sfc temp) up
north this afternoon. So went with some silent 14 PoPs up north and
out east to cover this. A plunge of colder air hits tonight with
lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.
Flow aloft turns more zonal on Thursday and this begins a warming
trend through Monday. This brings highs back up into the 50s through
Monday. Southerly sfc flow returns by Friday and funnels some Gulf
moisture northward. By Friday evening a system is emerging into the
Central Plains and brings back rain chances Friday evening through
Sunday afternoon. This system also drags a front through Saturday
night. Behind this system appears to be another trof but there are
model discrepancies over timing. The GFS is faster and brings back
precip chances on Monday vs the EC which is slower and doesn't bring
precip in until Monday night. This system also brings another front
through sometime on Monday (dependent on timing).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024
A strong cold front will pass through the area today, allowing
for gusty winds and a brief period of light snow. Tried to time
out the greatest chance for snow and briefly reduced
visibilities at each TAF site. Winds will gust in the 20 to 25
kt range by early afternoon. After the snow passes, expect
improving conditions through the rest of the TAF period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...KC
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 11, 5:17 AM CST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
