PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 11, 2:01 AM CST302
FXUS63 KPAH 110801
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
201 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler temperatures today and tomorrow.
- Warming back up late week into early next week.
- Rain chances return Friday evening through Sunday. More rain possible
again on Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024
A large trof axis aloft is passing through this morning and has
brought some light snow and flurries to eastern portions of the area
overnight. A tightening of the sfc gradient today will also bring
breezy winds this afternoon. Model consensus on precip chances for
this afternoon have trended drier. Soundings show a significant dry
layer up to around 5,000 ft. The HRRR in particular shows some
saturation above this layer and in the DGZ, so we could maybe
squeeze out a few sprinkles/flurries (depending on sfc temp) up
north this afternoon. So went with some silent 14 PoPs up north and
out east to cover this. A plunge of colder air hits tonight with
lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.
Flow aloft turns more zonal on Thursday and this begins a warming
trend through Monday. This brings highs back up into the 50s through
Monday. Southerly sfc flow returns by Friday and funnels some Gulf
moisture northward. By Friday evening a system is emerging into the
Central Plains and brings back rain chances Friday evening through
Sunday afternoon. This system also drags a front through Saturday
night. Behind this system appears to be another trof but there are
model discrepancies over timing. The GFS is faster and brings back
precip chances on Monday vs the EC which is slower and doesn't bring
precip in until Monday night. This system also brings another front
through sometime on Monday (dependent on timing).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1034 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours. Other than a few
sprinkles or flurries, do not anticipate any precipitation
impacting the terminals. Mostly mid to high level clouds are
expected with a few bases between 4-5kft this morning and into
the early afternoon. Winds remain light overnight before
becoming breezy from the WNW on Wednesday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...AD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 11, 2:01 AM CST---------------
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