MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 7, 6:18 AM CST ...New AVIATION...446
FXUS64 KMOB 071218
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
618 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Light
northwest to northeast winds early this morning, becoming more
easterly (and even southeasterly near the coast) this afternoon.
Light and variable winds are expected across most of the region
tonight, with an increase in mid and high level cloudiness (but
not impacts to aviation at the terminals). DS/12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 402 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
Cool and dry to start the weekend; however, things will quickly
switch as we head into Sunday and Sunday night as our next system
approaches from the west. Shortwave ridging will continue to build
over the central US today and begin to slide eastward with time.
This push east will be in response to an upper level cutoff low
over the four corners region that will slowly begin to move
eastward and will be the first system of an active start to next
week. Prior to that system dry northwesterly flow will gradually
become more zonal over the weekend. This will likely keep us dry
through today and into Saturday morning; however, moisture is
expected to steadily increase with time in preparation for that
system. Rain will begin to creep into the forecast from the west
late Sunday afternoon into early Sunday night with most of the
rain likely focused over the western half of the area. Don't worry
everyone will have plenty of opportunity for rain later in the
week as this is just the start of multiple rounds. Temperatures
will start the weekend off chilly but quickly rebound as moisture
surges back northward. We will start the day in the 20s and 30s
this morning and highs will only top out in the 50s today. By
Saturday night temps wont cool off as much likely dropping into
the 40s but highs Sunday will likely climb into the mid to upper
60s as the warming trend continues into early next week. Rip
currents will likely remain low risk trough the weekend but will
start to come up with more persistent onshore flow by the start of
next week. BB/03
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 402 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
As the upper-level support from a weakening shortwave over the
Tennessee Valley region early Monday quickly lifts away from the
local area a surface boundary will begin losing momentum and will
likely stall somewhere over the local region on Monday (probably
just west of our forecast area) and then remain generally over the
same area through Tuesday night as mid and upper level southwesterly
flow will be parallel to this surface boundary. Multiple shortwaves
will continue to move along this stalled boundary in the southwesterly
flow aloft, bringing several rounds of rain to the area Monday through
Tuesday night as an amplifying longwave trough over the central
US quickly dives southeastward. This amplifying trough will finally
push the cold front through the area late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, with rains gradually ending from west to east
across the area and a much colder/drier airmass begins to build
into the region by Wednesday afternoon and continues through the
remainder of the period. Throughout the Monday through Tuesday
night timeframe, instability values appear to remain quite low due
to limited diurnal heating and generally poor lapse rates. This
should help to keep storms sub-severe through the period. The
primary concern will be the multiple rounds of rainfall. Most of
this rainfall will be beneficial due to the ongoing drought across
the area, however, with the possibility of localized swaths of
heavy rainfall rates (due to the high PWAT values and the stalled
surface boundary), a few instances of flooding cannot be ruled
out, especially in our urban/poor drainage areas.
Temperatures will be mild for the first half of the period, with
highs on Monday and Tuesday topping out mainly in the low to mid
70s (but a few upper 60s possible over interior-most zones). After
the front passes late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, highs
will drop into the low to mid 50s for most locations Wednesday and
Thursday, before rebounding slightly (to the upper 50s and lower
60s) on Friday. Lows Monday night will generally range from the
upper 50s to mid 60s from north-south across the area and then
cool into the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday night. Should be much
colder once again Wednesday and Thursday nights lows dropping
into the the 20s and 30s for most of the area, with maybe a few
lower 40s along the coast. DS/12
MARINE...
Issued at 402 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
Light to moderate offshore flow will slowly become more easterly
throughout the day. A moderate southeasterly flow likely develops
on sunday in advance of our next system. Moderate to strong
onshore flow likely develops early next week as seas increase
through the first half of the week. Showers and Storms will be
likely Monday through Wednesday before a cold front sweeps through
the marine waters by the end of the week. Strong offshore flow
will develop in the wake of the front and Small Craft Advisory
conditions will be likely by the end of the week. BB/03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 59 44 69 60 71 60 73 41 / 0 0 10 40 80 90 90 60
Pensacola 60 48 69 63 73 65 74 44 / 0 0 0 20 60 80 90 80
Destin 61 51 68 64 76 66 75 49 / 0 0 0 10 50 80 90 90
Evergreen 58 38 65 54 72 59 72 41 / 0 0 10 40 80 90 100 70
Waynesboro 56 40 65 55 70 58 70 36 / 0 10 30 70 90 90 80 40
Camden 56 38 64 53 69 58 68 37 / 0 0 20 70 90 90 90 60
Crestview 61 38 68 55 75 61 74 43 / 0 0 0 20 60 80 90 80
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 7, 6:18 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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