MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 3:54 PM CST ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...688
FXUS64 KMOB 052154
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
354 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday Night)
Issued at 354 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
Light rain showers will come to an end later this afternoon as a
strong cold front moves through the area and pushes offshore this
evening. This will bring in a much colder and drier airmass. Temps
tonight will fall into the mid and upper 20s inland to low 30s
along the coast. These temperatures coupled with a stiff north
wind will result in rather cold wind chills ranging in the 18 to
25 degree range. As a result, a Cold Weather Advisory continues
across the area for wind chills below 20 to 25 degrees. Sunny
skies return on Friday, however temps will struggle to reach the
upper 40s and low 50s in many areas. Lows Friday night again fall
into the mid/upper 20s inland to mid 30s along the coast. /13
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 354 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
An active period is expected for much of the extended term. After
a dry and chilly day on Saturday, upper-level flow turns
southwesterly on Sunday as a southern stream shortwave trough
begins to eject to the northeast. Additionally, high pressure at
the surface pushes to our east, allowing for winds to shift from
northeasterly on Saturday to southeasterly on Sunday. The onshore
component of this flow, both at the surface and aloft, will allow
for a warm air advection regime to set up across the region. PWATs
in response quickly increase to around 1.5 to 1.7 inches by
Sunday night. In response to the ejecting shortwave, a surface
boundary/trough appears to develop to our west and will move into
the area Sunday night. Numerous to widespread showers, and a few
embedded thunderstorms, will be ongoing as the surface boundary
moves in. By Monday morning, the upper-level shortwave, along with
the better forcing, will have already lifted far to the north
before becoming absorbed by a larger longwave trough that begins
moving into the central US. By this point, the surface boundary
will begin losing momentum and will likely stall somewhere over
the local region (probably along the I-65 corridor). Weaker
shortwave energy will continue to stream across the region,
however, which will help to keep rain chances high throughout the
day on Monday and into the overnight hours, especially along the
stalled boundary. Instability throughout the day appears rather
meager due limiting diurnal heating and poor lapse rates. So
although shear values would be supportive of storm organization,
the limited instability and the displacement of the best forcing
will keep the overall severe risk low.
By Tuesday, the positively-tilted longwave trough will begin digging
southward across much of the CONUS. As it starts to amplify, the
longwave will tighten up and begin moving to the east through
midweek. This will help to send a strong cold front to the south.
High rain chances will continue through the day on Tuesday and into
Tuesday night as the stalled surface boundary lingers across the
area and the cold front approaches from the northwest. Similar to
Monday, instability continues to remain rather low as cloud
cover/high rain chances limit daytime heating and the warm air
advection is not strong enough to push in the better instability
that resides offshore. The front moves through by Tuesday night and
we start to dry out throughout the day on Wednesday. Cold, dry
conditions return on Thursday.
As of now, the primary concern with this Sunday night through
Wednesday morning event will be multiple rounds of heavy rainfall.
Most of this rainfall will be beneficial due to the ongoing drought
across the area, however, a few instances of flooding, especially in
our urban and poor drainage areas, cannot be ruled out. We will
continue to monitor trends over the coming days. /96
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
A strong cold will move through the coastal waters this
afternoon. In the wake of this front, strong offshore flow and
building seas are expected tonight into early Friday morning. Winds
and seas diminish Friday and Saturday. Onshore flow will strengthen
again by Sunday night ahead of the next approaching front. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 29 51 33 57 42 69 61 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 50 80
Pensacola 33 53 37 59 45 70 64 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 70
Destin 36 56 39 60 47 68 64 73 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 20 60
Evergreen 25 50 27 57 35 66 55 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 80
Waynesboro 25 49 28 55 37 63 56 72 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 70 80
Camden 24 46 26 55 34 62 52 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 70 80
Crestview 27 54 28 60 35 69 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Friday
for ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Friday
for FLZ201>206.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Friday
for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ630>636.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ650-655-670-
675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 3:54 PM CST ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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