JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 6, 11:43 PM EST163
FXUS63 KJKL 070443
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1143 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures continue through Saturday night,
though temperatures do continue to moderate.
- Temperatures will warm to above normal readings for Sunday into
early next week, along with the arrival of wet conditions.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2024
No major changes made to the grids aside from loading and
adjusting trends based on the latest surface observations. Grids
have been saved and sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 405 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2024
Late this afternoon, an upper level trough extended from eastern
Canada into the Northeastern Conus to the Carolina coast to east
of Fl. Further west an upper level ridge extended from the
eastern Pacific into the Northwest Conus and portions of the
northern Rockies while a closed low was located near the AZ/Mexico
border. Northwest flow extended from Alberta and Saskatchewan
across the Northern Plains/upper MS Valley to the OH Valley and
Appalachians. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure extended
from the Appalachians across the southeast and into TX and was
centered near Memphis TN at this time. Under sunny skies,
temperatures had moderated a bit compared to yesterday with
temperatures mainly in the low to mid 30s, with 20s for locations
above 2000 feet. These readings are about 15 degrees below normal
highs for this time of year. Dewpoints were in the upper single
digits to mid teens.
Tonight through Saturday, gradual 500 mb height rises are expected
across eastern KY as the upper level trough axis moves further
east and the trough to the north and northeast become more broad.
Shortwave upper ridging will shift from TX and the southern Plains
to the Lower MS Valley and southeast leading to the gradual
height rises locally. Further to the west and southeast, the
closed low initially near the AZ and Mexico border will trek
toward southern NM. At the surface, the ridge of high pressure
will shift across eastern KY this evening and settle across the
Southeast Conus on Saturday. The pattern will lead to return
southerly flow overnight and especially Saturday between the
departing high pressure and lower pressure in the Upper MS Valley
to Plains. Following a moderate ridge/valley split forecast for
tonight in the mid teens if not some instances of lower teens to
the low to mid 20s for coalfield ridges, a continued moderating
trend for highs is expected on Saturday. Despite the warming
trend, highs will still be about 5 degrees below normal.
Saturday night, as the axis of the shortwave ridging moves east,
moisture will begin to increase across the Lower MS to TN Valleys
with this poised to arrive in the long term period along in
advance of the upper low as it it moves into the TX panhandle and
approaches OK. Surface high pressure will remain southeast of
eastern KY with ridging extending into the Southern Appalachians.
This pattern will lead to another ridge/valley split over eastern
KY, with mid 20s if not some lower 20s in deeper eastern valleys
to mid 30s for coalfield ridges.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2024
Sunday, warmer weather can be expected, with clouds increasing
heading into the afternoon. Highs generally in the low to mid 50s.
An upper level low will work its way across Texas, Oklahoma, and
Missouri, advecting moisture northeast, out ahead of the lows
center. The cold front will arrive around sunset, bringing showers
to the area. Rain will continue through Monday. Lows Sunday night
are expected to be warmer, in the lower 40s.
Monday, rain continues through the evening, with highs in the upper
50s, approaching 60 in some spots, and lows in the upper 40s. During
the day Monday, a secondary, positively-tilted trough begins to dig
southeast out of the Pacific Northwest. This trough will
substantially deepen, digging as far south as Texas, and drawing
moisture poleward from the Gulf Of Mexico. Shower chances will
remain through mid week.
Tuesday, highs will warm into the mid 50s to low 60s, with rain
showers continuing through the day. Temperatures at night drop into
the mid to upper 30s. A wintry mix could result heading into
Wednesday. Little to no impacts are currently expected at this time.
Highs Wednesday will remain chilly, in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Rain and snow showers continue with breezy conditions. Lows
Wednesday are expected to dip into the low to mid 20s. This long
amplitude trough is forecasted to become negatively tilted, ushering
in colder air behind the front.
Snow showers look to taper off Wednesday overnight into Thursday, as
the frontal system is modeled to push east of the state. Highs
Thursday are forecasted in the mid to upper 30s, with lows in the
low to mid 20s under partly cloudy skies.
Friday, brief ridging is modeled with rising heights across the
area. Currently dry conditions are expected with highs in the mid
to upper 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2024
VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites and sites will
remain VFR through the period. Light southwest or variable winds
are expected through the night; however, increasing southwesterly
winds are expected toward 18Z tomorrow afternoon, becoming gusty
especially toward KSYM in the early to mid afternoon, which will
persist through around ~00z Sun. LLWS will then become an
increasing likelihood as a low-level jet develops just above the
nighttime inversion beginning shortly after dark and lasting
beyond the end of the TAF period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 6, 11:43 PM EST---------------
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