PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 10:59 PM CST601
FXUS63 KPAH 060459 AAA
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1059 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Arctic cold will linger across the Quad State through
tomorrow. Wind chill readings may drop as low as the lower
teens above zero tonight.
- Temperatures moderate over the weekend into early next week,
followed by another cold blast for the latter half of the
week.
- The next storm system will bring widespread rainfall Sunday
into Monday with averages from almost a half inch in the
northwest to nearly an inch and a half in the southeast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
High pressure will build from the Plains late this afternoon
eastward, becoming centered over the Quad State area late tonight
through Friday night. PWATs are expected to be around 25% percent of
normal tonight, which will allow the temperatures to drop rapidly.
The one thing that may keep the temperatures from tanking is the
pressure gradient on the east side of the high. This may keep just
enough breeze through the night to keep temperatures in the mid to
upper teens. If the gradient relaxes early enough in the night, lows
could easily drop into the lower teens with the dry air in place and
clear skies. Temperatures on Friday will only warm into the mid 30s
for most of the area.
As the surface ridge shifts east of the area, southerly flow will
return with Gulf moisture lifting northward. As this happens, an
upper-level low is progged to move from the Panhandle of Texas late
Saturday night to northeast Missouri by Sunday evening. The lift
associated with that feature along with isentropic upglide on
southerly flow, will increase chance of rain across the area from
Sunday afternoon through at least Monday morning. PWAT values jump
up to around 200% of normal for that time frame pointing at the
potential for heavier rainfall. In fact, some locations could see
more than an inch of rain. The heaviest totals are expected over
west Kentucky into southwest Indiana, where the greatest chances of
seeing an inch or more are expected. Southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois will likely see totals in the quarter to half inch range.
Temperatures will warm to near or above normal over the weekend into
early next week with highs warming into the 50s Saturday and Sunday
and around 60 for Monday.
A break in the precipitation can be expected for most of the area on
Tuesday; however, a much deeper trough is progged to dig south
across most of the central CONUS. This will lead to another round of
colder temperatures along with at least small chances for
precipitation toward mid week. There are model differences in how
deep the trough is and timing of any waves rounding the base of the
trough as well. The trend back to colder temperatures looks
reasonable, but confidence in precipitation remain normal to low for
that time period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1059 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
Very light to near calm winds can be expected tonight under
clear skies amid very cold conditions as high pressure settles
overhead. A light southwesterly wind is expected to develop by
late morning on Friday, diminishing after sunset.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 10:59 PM CST---------------
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