LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 27, 11:40 AM CST ...New AVIATION...913
FXUS64 KLIX 271740
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1140 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024
Dense fog advisory will be canceled for this morning. Stratus
decks from 1500 to 2500ft are moving over the area causing the fog
at the sfc to lift and dissipate.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024
This is a conglomerate of radiation and advective variables for
producing fog this morning. There are some obs coming in with
ceilings of 2k+ft but sat imagery does not show this deck. If it is
a deck at this level, it is very thin or the ceilometers are
bouncing off the very strong inversion at that level. Since there is
efficient cooling of the sfc and an advecting strat deck at 1kft and
lower, we have issued a dense fog advisory for this morning. This is
also the kind of fog that does not lift easily, so the timing will
be out to 10am. This could lift within the hour between 9-10am
though. The locations that may not have as much dense fog would be
right along the coast or where the 3kft deck tries to develop this
morning which would be coastal Miss and the open gulf coast of SELA.
But we will bring these areas in as well since decks there are at or
below 600ft. The front that is causing all this is stalled this
morning over the northern gulf. The thermal gradient with this will
quickly move northward later this morning and we will be back into
the warmer section later today. This won't last long as the next
front will be moving in fast behind this warm fronts departure.
Turkey Day is not looking all that great to be outdoors since there
will be showers and some storms around. The front should be entering
the area around 6am Thursday and move out by 3pm. Some showers will
be present ahead of the front but storms will be mainly along the
front. This would be the only window that would give the marginal
risk that SPC is advertising since all of this will be elevated once
the front moves through. Cloudy all day with temps falling during
the day once the front passes, so the high temp for some of the
area will be during the early morning hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024
We could see some clearing skies by Fri as high pressure settles in.
This will hold through the weekend and possibly into the middle of
next week before return flow starts again. A slow warming trend will
take hold next week but dry conditions look to hang on until the end
of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024
Low stratus continues to cause MVFR, clearing to VFR through the
afternoon and evening. Conditions deteriorate to IFR late night
to early morning due to low stratus with some light, patchy fog.
Cold front passes west to east early morning to noon-ish bringing
wind out of the north.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024
The cold front that stalled over the coastal waters will move back
north today shifting these wind back to southerly. These winds are
expected to be light around 10kt but some gusts could reach as high
as 20kt. The next front is expected during the day Thu which should
clear the northern gulf with much stronger northerly winds around 20
to 25kt and cold temps. SCA flags will likley be hoisted for Thu
night into Fri. Winds will slowly ease by the weekend back to around
10kt as winds shift to NE. Reinforcing frontal passages should help
keep the northerly winds over the coastal waters through much of
next week although light.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 58 65 40 54 / 50 50 10 0
BTR 64 72 45 60 / 40 40 10 0
ASD 65 74 45 59 / 20 40 10 0
MSY 66 74 49 59 / 20 40 10 0
GPT 66 75 46 60 / 10 40 10 0
PQL 65 78 45 62 / 10 40 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...TE
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 27, 11:40 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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