MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 30, 5:23 PM CST ...New AVIATION...659
FXUS64 KMOB 302323
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
523 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle with clear skies and
light northerly winds. 07/mb
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024
We might have started out November hot but we are closing the
month on the cold side. The coldest air of the season will settle
in tonight as high pressure builds over the central US. No precip
is expected for quite some time so the main talk will be
temperatures. With a light north wind, clear skies and low
dewpoints, expect about as good of a radiational cooling night as
we are going to get. This will allow for most of the area to dip
to below freezing with low temperatures in the mid 20s along
highway 84 to near freezing along the immediate coastline. As a
result we have issued a freeze warning for the entire area. This
will likely be our last freeze warning for most of the area
assuming we do not have an extended warm period. Sunday will be
pleasant with highs in the low 60s before dipping back into the
20s and 30s on Sunday night. BB/03
SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024
A mean upper trough over the eastern Conus shifts east into mid
week, with surface high pressure moving southeast over the Plains
towards the Southeast in response. A reinforcing front moves
southeast ahead of the surface high over the Southeast Monday night
in response. As the surface high moves to the East Coast mid week,
onshore flow is restored to the Lower Mississippi River Valley
(LMRV) Tuesday night and the Southeast on Wednesday. Moisture levels
creep up, from <0.5" forecast area wide sunrise Wednesday to around
1.5" by Thursday evening as shortwave energy passing over the
Southern Plains/LMRV/Southeast Wednesday through Thursday brings
isentropic upglide rainshowers to areas mainly south of I-20. A
surface boundary organizing near the northern Gulf coast provides
the main focus for the upglide. Thursday on, the latest guidance is
advertising the shortwave energy moving off. Looking back at
previous runs and latest ensembles, there has been more energy
streaming south over the Southeast from a weakening/reorganizing
upper low over the US/Mexico border Thursday into the weekend, with
isolated to scattered rainshowers lasting into the weekend. Have
went this way with the forecast. Mainly elevated instability
continues to be confined to areas generally west of the Tombigbee
River and limited at that. Have kept any mention of rumbles to areas
west of the Tombigbee. With the stronger convection remaining west
of the forecast area, am not anticipating any water issues at this
time, but continue to monitor.
Looking at temperatures, the reinforcing front will bring a drop in
temperatures early in the week, then with the return of onshore
flow, temperatures rise back to around seasonal norms for the
latter half of the week. High temperatures ranging from the upper
50s north of Highway 84 to low 60s south of I-10 Monday drop into
the low 50s north of Highway 84 to near 60 close to the coast.
High temperatures then rise to near seasonal norms for Thursday
through Saturday with the return of southerly flow. For low
temperatures, the reinforcing front will bring two more nights of
freezing temperatures to the forecast area, with mid to upper 20
north of Highway 84 to mid 30s to near 40 south of I-10 monday and
Tuesday nights. Wednesday night on, low temperatures generally
range from the low to mid 40s north of Highway 84 to the mid to
upper 50s south of I-10.
Even with the northerly flow shifting to southerly mid week,
the magnitude of the onshore flow is not expected to be high
enough for significant swell, keeping the risk of rip currents low
through the week.
/16
MARINE...
Issued at 348 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024
A light to moderate offshore flow is expected for the
remainder of the weekend and into early next week. Light onshore
flow returns midweek.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 32 63 33 61 33 57 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 37 63 39 61 38 57 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 41 63 42 63 42 59 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 28 62 30 58 27 53 25 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 27 62 29 58 27 54 26 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 27 60 29 54 25 50 23 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 26 62 28 61 29 57 26 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday for
ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday for
FLZ201>206.
MS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday for
MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 30, 5:23 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
