IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 4:01 AM EST680
FXUS63 KIWX 050901
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
401 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lake effect snow, gusty winds, blowing snow, and reduced
visibility are expected through Thursday. Wind gusts up to 45
mph are possible, especially near the lake.
- A winter storm warning and winter weather advisory are in
effect for southwest Michigan and northern Indiana. Hazardous
travel is possible in these areas.
- Arctic airmass in place will drop wind chills at times into
the single digits to below zero. The cold will last through
Friday.
- Friday and Saturday will be dry before a warmer system
increases chances of rain Sunday night and Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2024
Arctic modified airmass now in place in the wake of yesterdays
Alberta clipper system and associated cold front. Temperatures
yesterday in the mid 30s now currently as of 3:30 AM in the mid
to upper teens. A northwesterly flow across the still
relatively warm Lake Michigan waters (lake water temperatures in
the 40s) is also bringing widespread bands of light to moderate
snowfall from about Michigan City to well north near Grand
Haven, MI. Winds have also been gusting from about 35 to 45 mph
at times mainly near Lake Michigan and will continue through
today with the very tight gradients surrounding the mid level
closed low that is centered over northern Lake Huron. In the
cold airmass the snow is light and fluffy with about a 20:1 SLR
and coupled with the gusty winds will bring periods of blowing
snow to many locations and may at times drop visibilities due to
the lofted snow. Have made some slight downward modifications
to the snow amounts especially for the western and southern
parts of the CWA as the much drier airmass advects into the
region. Current thinking is additional snow amounts will range
from a trace to around 8 inches. The heaviest totals will occur
in southern Michigan in Cass and St. Joseph counties. Have kept
the winter weather products as-is with the forecast still pretty
much on track and have allowed the wind advisory for areas
outside of the winter weather products to drop off as winds
still very much breezy but have trended lower in the wake of
the FROPA.
Cold temperatures will remain through Friday. Highs today
through Friday will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s. A
zonal flow arrives this weekend and will allow for warming
temperatures with highs on Saturday in the mid 30s to low 40s
and even warmer on Sunday with highs which will feel balmy
compared to what we have been experiencing over the last week or
so getting into the mid to upper 40s. Some locations will see
the 50 degree mark. Monday will be slightly warmer yet with more
locations getting into the lower 50s. This warmer airmass will
also be accompanied with increased chances of precipitation in
the liquid form beginning Sunday afternoon and through Tuesday
morning. By Tuesday afternoon another trough will dip southward
bringing a return to colder temperatures (however not as cold
as of lately) with highs in the 30s by Wednesday and more
chances for some mixed precipitation on Tuesday evening and
mostly snow showers on Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2024
The cold front has moved southeast of FWA with strong winds
associated with much colder air spreading southeast over
northern Indiana. One quick burst at FWA caused the VSBY to drop
to 1/4SM in SW+. Given at 310 fetch for the next several hours,
both SBN and FWA will not get into any of the preconditioning
from upstream northern Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. Thinking
is lowest visibility will be only 4SM. Much uncertainty with
veering winds and snow bands likely to drift west, so have not
put any detail into the latter portion of the TAFs.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for INZ005-006-104.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Friday
for INZ007>009-014-103-116-204.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ early this morning for
INZ012-013-015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-203-216.
OH...None.
MI...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for MIZ078-079-177-
277.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for MIZ080.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Steinwedel
DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 4:01 AM EST---------------
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