PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 2, 5:31 AM CST810
FXUS63 KPAH 021131
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
531 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow expected today with the passing of a weak upper
level disturbance. Light snow accumulations are possible.
- Cold conditions hold through Tuesday with temperatures well
below seasonal norms.
- Temperatures will moderate closer to seasonal norms by
Wednesday, before another cold blast by the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024
Recent WV imagery shows an upper level disturbance descending
out of the MN/IA vicinity at the time of this discussion. This
disturbance is moving within an amplified longwave trof that
encompasses much of the central and eastern CONUS. It makes its
way into the Quad State region later today with only a weak
surface reflection depicted in models with weak sfc convergence.
Overall lift and moisture associated with this system has been
limited at best, and that trend continues. Much of the lift will
likely be tied to the upper vort max and in fact there appears
to be little low level WAA in the guidance. Along with the weak
ascent, moisture availability isn't the best with modeled QPF
amounts only a few hundreths of an inch at best. It will be
plenty cold for snow though. Guidance has trended slower with
the system including the onset of precipitation. There is a lot
of dry air to overcome and this may eat at the snow falling, at
least initially. Forecast amounts haven't change much with only
a dusting to half of an inch expected at best for a good portion
of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and much of western
Kentucky. The only change has been maybe a very slight southward
shift in the snow. I think the higher end scenario would be
around an inch or so if we were to see better ascent and/or
moisture content. Still this may cause some slick roadways with
temperatures as cold as they are. The special weather statement
will continue.
High pressure quickly moves in behind this system bringing a
continuation of cold temperatures but drier air as well. Low
temperatures will bottom out into the lower teens across the
northern counties to upper teens to near 20 across our SEMO
counties. Temperatures begin to moderate on Wednesday as the
high moves off to the east and lower pressure develops across
the plains setting up southerly flow at the surface. These
warmer temperatures will be short lived however as another cold
airmass makes its way into the region behind a front late
Wednesday. High pressure settles across the region for the end
of the week providing light winds, clear skies, and cold
temperatures. Its possible another system comes into the area
for next weekend but confidence is low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024
A disturbance aloft is set to bring light snow to the terminals
today. Cigs will lower throughout the morning to MVFR by the
afternoon. Periods of light snow may reduce cigs and visby
further at times. Given the uncertainty surrounding the coverage
of snow, continued to highlight this as PROB30's. Cigs will
recover back to VFR around 00z tonight with clearing skies
thereafter. Winds will remain light, generally around 5-10 kts
from the north.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 2, 5:31 AM CST---------------
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