IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 29, 2:38 AM EST764
FXUS63 KIWX 290738
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
238 AM EST Fri Nov 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lake effect snow showers with accumulations up to 1-4" with
isolated higher amounts be possible for southwest Lower
Michigan and far northern Indiana tonight through Friday
night. Lake effect snow showers will mainly be along and north
of the I-80/I-90 corridor.
- There is another possibility for some additional lake effect
snow showers north Sunday into Monday.
- Cold through the middle of next week with highs in the upper
20s to low 30s with lows in the teens.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 AM EST Fri Nov 29 2024
A cold upper trough will be over the region through Sunday
before it shifts east. West to northwest flow over Lake Michigan
coupled with a shortwave is currently bringing lake effect snow
showers to much of western Michigan with some lighter snow
extending down into northern Indiana. The heaviest snow can be
expected through around mid-morning. Outside of the heavier
showers, flurries can be expected across the area. This will
diminish Friday afternoon and evening. Where snow does
accumulate, 1 to 3 inches is possible through Saturday morning,
with some isolated 4 to 5 inch amounts in southwest Lower
Michigan.
The flow will shift more northwesterly on Sunday, and lake
effect snow will again get going, but with lighter amounts
unless amplified by another shortwave. Models suggest this may
be the case on Sunday night into Monday. A larger scale weather
system is then forecast to arrive on Wednesday with more
widespread snow, although exact details and amounts are
uncertain at this time. It will be very cold through midweek
with highs only in the 20s to low 30s, and overnight lows in the
teens to low 20s. Temperatures will be slightly warmer or
Wednesday and Thursday, but then drop back down at the end of
the week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1211 AM EST Fri Nov 29 2024
Have updated the SBN TAF to remove IFR visibilities and made TAF
more optimistic and kept CIGs & VSBYs above the critical fuel
alternates. Lake Michigan surface water temps the mildest in
over 30 years for this time of year according to the latest
GLERL analysis. Delta T values close to 25C support active snow
showers over the lake. However, the upstream fetch west of SBN
was unfavorable for snow shower development, especially
moderate to heavy snow showers. Residence time just not
sufficient enough for development on the south end of the lake.
Some weak upstream disturbance may briefly allow lower
conditions later today, but for now have opted with visibilities
above 3 miles and CIGs above 020.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 29, 2:38 AM EST---------------
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