PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 29, 11:12 PM CST843
FXUS63 KPAH 300512
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1112 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold conditions hold through Tuesday with temperatures well
below seasonal norms.
- Light snow is forecast over the northern half of the Quad
State Saturday afternoon and evening. 1 to 2 inches in a
narrow band is the current forecast...but isolated higher
totals north of I-64 are possible.
- Temperatures will moderate closer to seasonal norms by
Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024
Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024
The trend today is approaching Advisory criteria for some of
our northern-most counties, with respect to snow amounts tmrw. A
few problematic features suggest holding off on headlines, the
main one being our sustained southerly component to the wind in
the low levels. However, it just might be offset with the slight
uptick in QPF. The best chance of accumulating snow is just to
our north, but along and north of I-64 in southern IL, there is
a signal for upwards to 2" and we have that in the grids. A few
localities nearest the CWA border might push 3" if max of max
amounts are realized, but we suspect some of the upward totals
will be buffered down via melting on fall and on ground contact,
with best pops in the afternoon with temps in the mid 30s and
ground temps in the upper 30s or better. The accumulating
portion of the event s/b mainly afternoon-early evening, and
impacts during that time we think will be minimal.
Even though the event is winding down Saturday night,
temperatures drop markedly with everyone sub freezing after
midnight. Another tenth of an inch or two after midnight in our
far northeast might pose as much or more of a problem than an
inch during the afternoon, so we'll go ahead and issue an SPS
for both the accumulating snow chance and the sub freezing
night-time temperatures for the entirety of the northern
portions anticipated to get a little accumulation.
Beyond that, there is little else significant in the forecast.
After a cold weekend and start to the new week, we moderate back
toward climo by mid week...when small rain chances return to the
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024
Confidence is increasing that a band of moderate to possibly
heavy snow from a clipper system will impact MVN and EVV during
the 21z/30 to 03z/01 window. Further south, temperatures will
be too warm to support much more than a rain/snow mix.
Mostly clear skies overnight will yield to lowering cigs during
the morning and afternoon hours, with MVFR cigs accompanying
the precipitation's arrival at EVV, MVN, and OWB.
The heaviest snow bands look to impact MVN after 21z, when
IFR/LIFR cigs and vsbys are possible due to the snow. Light and
variable winds overnight will become S to SW at 5-10 kts during
the morning and afternoon hours, then weaken to light and
variable again Saturday evening.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 29, 11:12 PM CST---------------
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