ThreatWeb

315 
FXUS61 KBOX 031058
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
558 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast since the last update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonable warmth and dry weather hold through at least mid
  to late week. Maximum temperatures peak in the upper 60s to 
  low and mid 70s potentially putting daily records in jeopardy.

- Unsettled weather with continued warmer temperatures expected
  later this week heading into the weekend, which would feature
  periodic chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry with anomalous warmth continuing into mid-week. 
Daily high  in the upper 60s to low 70s, with isolated readings into 
the  mid-70s flirting with daily records.

High confidence in continued dry and warm conditions through late 
week. Mid-level ridge remains dominant across the eastern CONUS, 
with the ridge axis moving over the region through at least 
Wednesday. Deep-layer subsidence combined with 925mb temps in the 
+11C to +14C range will yield an uncharacteristically warm airmass 
through Friday. Dry soil conditions and full solar insolation will 
continue the chance for high temps to overperform vs the NBM/MOS 
consensus. Thus, have bumped high temperatures on Wednesday and 
Thursday in the CT and Merrimack Valleys up 3-5 degrees. Doing so 
yields highs in the mid and even upper 70s across these 
regions. These readings would potentially challenge daily 
maximum temperature records both Wednesday and Thursday. 
Additionally, a SSW return flow will help to increase surface 
dew point temperatures into the 50s and 60s Wednesday night 
through Friday. This results in elevated nocturnal minimums and 
so both high and low maximum temperature records may be 
challenged through the week. More details in the climate section
below. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather with continued warmer 
temperatures expected later this week heading into the weekend, 
which would feature periodic chances for rain.

A thermal ridge is expected to continue building over southern New 
England towards the midweek timeframe, which will be supportive of 
above-normal temperatures continuing for Wednesday and Thursday this 
week. 925 mb temperatures between 12-16C along with SW to S flow 
will bring the possibility of highs in the upper 60s into the 
low/mid 70s across southern New England Wednesday and Thursday. 
Ensembles have quite high probabilities of highs exceeding 70F 
Wednesday afternoon, and these remain somewhat elevated (up to 90% 
in southern parts of the coastal plain) for Thursday afternoon as 
well. Guidance doesn't indicate much with regards to a return to 
more mild temperatures until the second half of the weekend as the 
ridging shifts off to the east, but that could vary depending on how 
the approaching system evolves and tracks across the region.

Ensembles have continued to show a consensus with regards to the 
return of more unsettled weather for the second half of this week. A 
mid to upper level trough is expected to move in from the west, 
which will help advect in an anomalous moisture plume around 2 to 3 
standard deviations above normal over southern New England. Closer 
to the surface, a frontal system associated with a previously more 
developed low pressure is expected to track across the region, 
bringing good chances for wetting rains towards the end of the week. 
Exact timing is still a bit uncertain, but latest guidance is 
leaning towards onset being Thursday evening at the earliest in 
western MA and CT, then tracking eastward through Friday. Showers 
may even linger into Sunday for parts of the region. Ensemble 
probabilities with regards to totals have not changed much from the 
overnight forecast, with probabilities for 24-hr totals >= 0.5" 
(period ending Saturday morning) generally between 30-70% across 
ensemble suites. Notably, though, the Canadian and ECMWF ensembles 
distribute these probabilities across the majority of southern New 
England as the front tracks from west to east, while the GEFS has a 
more focused footprint of higher probabilities and totals over Cape 
Cod and some of the coastal plain in SE MA. Given the spread in 
guidance, there is still decent uncertainty regarding the 
progression and development of the surface features that would 
really enhance rainfall totals and even introduce the chance for 
some rumbles of thunder.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update...High confidence.

VFR. This will persist through the middle of the week. Mid to
high level cloudiness expected periodically. Winds generally SW
at 5-15 kt in the afternoons. Low chance of MVFR/IFR and fog 
across the south coast and islands tonight into early Wednesday 
morning. Greatest chance will be between 06-12z Wednesday
morning.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. 

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. 

Wednesday Night: VFR. 

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance RA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
RA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. RA likely, slight
chance TSRA.

Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. RA, slight
chance TSRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Wednesday...High confidence.

An upper level ridge of high pressure will keep winds/seas below 
small craft advisory thresholds through the middle of the week. 
Nonetheless...we may have some SW wind gusts of 20+ knots at times 
particularly nearshore during the afternoons. This may result in 
some choppy seas at times...but thinking we should remain below the 
need for headlines. Greatest chance of 20+ knot winds is this 
afternoon across the SE waters.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Patchy fog. Local visibility
1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain. 

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely,
slight chance of thunderstorms. 

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain,
slight chance of thunderstorms. 

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain
likely, slight chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Persistent unseasonable warmth over the next several day will
challenge calendar-day record highs and record high minimums
across southern New England climate sites.

Daily Record Highs to Watch:

Boston (BOS): Wednesday 78F (1987)|Thursday 79F (1994) 

Hartford/Bradley (BDL): Wednesday 78F (1987)|Thursday 75F (2022)

Providence (PVD): Wednesday 77F (1987)|Thursday 75F (1994)

Worcester (ORH): Wednesday 74F (1987)|Thursday 73F (1994)


Daily Record Lows to Watch:

Boston (BOS): Thursday 56F (1994)|Friday 57F (2020)

Hartford/Bradley (BDL): Thursday 55F (1994)|Friday 56F (2020)

Providence (PVD): Thursday 56F (1994)|Friday 58F (2020)

Worcester (ORH): Thursday 55F (1994)| 55F (2020)

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hrencecin/FT
AVIATION...Hrencecin/FT
MARINE...Hrencecin/FT
CLIMATE...FT

125 
FXUS64 KMOB 030447
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1047 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1043 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

 - A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area
   beaches through Tuesday night. Surf heights up to 5 feet are 
   expected through Tuesday, with rough surf expected. 

 - Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous
   conditions for small craft through midweek.

 - A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday into
   Thursday, with a few periods of showers and thunderstorms 
   possible across the area. The threat for severe thunderstorms 
   is low at this time.
 &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1043 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Rather calm night tonight looking at observational trends and recent 
GOES-16 IR/WV and Night Microphysics. Only item to mention is patchy 
upper-level clouds, with greater coverage increasing over the NW 
Gulf in association with a deepening upper-level low over the 
central US, accelerating upper-level moisture northeast over the 
Mexican Plateau. Meanwhile at the surface, downstream divergence 
ahead of the eastward drifting trough has resulted in surface low 
genesis over northern OK/southern KS, with a cold front draped south 
into north-central Texas where a few strong to severe storms 
continue. This will be the main focus in the short-term as this 
system approaches our area, so let's dive right into it!

We'll be seeing many notable changes over the next 12-24 hours in 
regards to the evolution in the system to our west. Beginning aloft, 
the greatest PVA/vorticity loaded at the apex of the shortwave 
impulse slingshots northeast, allowing in most jet dynamics/synoptic-
scale lift to eject quickly towards the Midwest along with the 
occluding surface low. This evolution is highly important in regards 
to what we'll experience here locally, as now we're within the 
depths of the convection allowing model time windows, and are 
acquiring a better idea of timing/windows and subtle threats 
possible. 

That aside, a pretty interesting feature in the western Gulf; 
lingering energy and broad cyclonic rotation aloft from a subtle 
inverted trough, responsible for recent heavy rains over the 
Florida Peninsula retrograding west, slowly. Can see this spin 
well on WV/IR trends tonight, and reflected in SPC 
Mesoanalysis/RAP trends. Zooming in towards the surface, we'll 
continue to see increasing southeasterly gradient surface winds 
offshore, around the northern apex of the surface trough. The 
combination of the approaching central US system and southerly 
moisture advection off the Gulf tries to amplify a small-scale 
zone of SE to NW oriented confluence banding, resulting in bands 
of showers and a few storms late Tuesday morning thru the 
afternoon and evening. These could need to be watched. Small-scale
banding like this can result in a very localized enhancement of 
shear/surface vorticity, when interacting with shallow cells can 
uptick the risk for a few waterspouts or even an isolated tornado.
Nothing substantial, by all means and conditional risk is rather 
low, but can sometimes be a curve ball and will need monitoring.

Otherwise, this activity drapes east overnight, mainly east of I-65 
and again, will continue to monitor as the mesoscale confluence 
banding orients more due south to due north thanks to deepening 
unidirectional low-level southerly flow taking over in response to 
the trough approaching. We could see a brief lull in rain chances 
overnight into early Wednesday, but still can't rule out periods of 
light drizzle at times. Meanwhile going later into the day, the 
front approaches and as mentioned earlier with the better/greater 
jet dynamics eject well north away from the area, the only lift 
left is mainly frontogenetic and supported with subtle instability 
for a broken line of showers/few storms at times sweeping slowly 
west to east. Will monitor far northern counties where a few gusty 
bands on radar can't be ruled out along the line, but coverage will 
thin out the closer you get to the coast. 

Thereafter going into Wednesday night and Thursday, will watch the 
front slow down as it aligns parallel to H5 flow aloft, resulting in 
almost no large-scale ascent left over than weak frontogenetic 
lift but likely will rain out with time as showers slowly drift 
into eastern areas (south-central AL/NW Florida) Wednesday night. 
Aloft, we're between impulses with quasi-zontal flow persisting, 
then the next shortwave impulse dives into the central US. With 
the front lingering around, will have to keep an mention of a few 
showers at times through Thursday, as any subtle frontogenetic 
lift lingering combined with destabilization during the day could 
support a few isolated showers at times. PoP's coming in from the 
recent 01Z NBM are a tad low, in the 10-20% range with better 
chances over eastern areas, which makes sense, but would not be 
surprised to see this increase some over the next few days but
should remain rather isolated regardless.

Best rain chances will return again on Friday as the impulse over
the central US dives southeast into our area, re-amplifying 
associated PVA/lift for more widespread showers at times. Nothing 
impactful standing out with guidance, and quickly gets a push out 
of here just in time for the weekend. 

The weekend is looking nice and cooler overall as ridging amplifies 
in the west-central US owing in downstream convergence aloft and 
surface high to dive into the region. Lows in the 30's can't be 
ruled out for northern parts of the area Sunday thru Tuesday, 
perhaps even tapping into the mid to low 30's for northern areas 
Tuesday morning once winds relax under the surface high and we're 
within the window of maximized radiational cooling - some of the 
coldest air so far this season. Something we'll look closer at in 
the coming days. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

In association with an approaching trough, an MVFR cloud deck is 
expected to overspread the area overnight. This MVFR deck will 
persist through tomorrow afternoon accompanied by increasing winds 
turning southeasterly as the day goes on. A couple of showers and 
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the afternoon.  

KL/31

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1211 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A moderate to strong easterly flow continues through Tuesday with 
a tight pressure gradient over the northern Gulf. Winds will 
shift southeasterly Tuesday night as a system approaches the area 
from the west. Winds gradually decrease and turn southerly 
Wednesday, becoming offshore Wednesday night through the weekend. 
Seas remain near 5-7 feet today and will gradually decrease 
throughout the week. 
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  80  67  82 /   0  50  60  60 
Pensacola   68  79  70  81 /   0  20  70  60 
Destin      68  80  70  80 /   0  10  60  70 
Evergreen   61  80  64  80 /   0  20  50  90 
Waynesboro  61  80  64  80 /   0  30  70  60 
Camden      62  78  64  78 /   0  10  60  90 
Crestview   63  82  66  81 /   0  20  50  80 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

893 
CDUS41 KCLE 030735
CLICLE

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH
235 AM EST TUE NOV 03 2026

...................................

...THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 2 2026...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1871 TO 2026


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         67   1213 PM  78    2016  57     10       56       
  MINIMUM         56    459 AM  25    1895  41     15       33       
  AVERAGE         62                        49     13       45     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  YESTERDAY        0.01                      0.12  -0.11     0.00     
  MONTH TO DATE    0.01                      0.24  -0.23     0.00     
  SINCE SEP 1      4.37                      7.77  -3.40     4.62     
  SINCE JAN 1     29.85                     34.91  -5.06    34.59     

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
  YESTERDAY        0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0      
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                       0.1   -0.1      0.0      
  SINCE SEP 1      0.0                       0.2   -0.2      0.0      
  SINCE JUL 1      0.0                       0.2   -0.2      0.0      
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                              
  YESTERDAY        3                        16    -13       20        
  MONTH TO DATE    9                        32    -23       37        
  SINCE SEP 1    315                       427   -112      387        
  SINCE JUL 1    319                       433   -114      420        

 COOLING                                                              
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0        
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0        
  SINCE SEP 1    173                       128     45       84        
  SINCE JAN 1    928                       946    -18      898        
...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                            
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    18   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (190)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    27   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SW (210)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     9.2                                        


SKY COVER                                                             
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                                 
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 1.0                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                    
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                         
  LIGHT RAIN                                                          
  FOG                                                                 


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST    87          1000 PM                                      
 LOWEST     47          1200 PM                                      
 AVERAGE    67                                                        

..........................................................


THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   57        79      1961                      
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   41        19      1951                      


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                    
NOVEMBER  3 2026......SUNRISE   701 AM EST   SUNSET   520 PM EST     
NOVEMBER  4 2026......SUNRISE   703 AM EST   SUNSET   519 PM EST     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

003 
FXUS63 KIND 030543
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1243 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions expected for Tuesday with highs in the low 
  70s

- Widespread rain arrives late Tuesday night and continues into 
  Wednesday

-  A return to more seasonable, cooler temperatures is expected late 
  week through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 242 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Tonight.

The short term period will be characterized by anomalous warmth and 
increasing low level moisture ahead of an approaching central US 
trough. For tonight, the main forecast challenge relies on low level 
saturation and stratus trends. Model soundings and HREF 
probabilities indicate a persistent subsidence inversion aloft 
trapping boundary layer moisture. This will result in widespread 
stratus overnight. With weak forcing and lack of deep moisture, 
precipitation will be mostly limited to patchy drizzle and even this 
should end no later than midnight. Overnight lows will remain quite 
mild, generally in the middle 50s, due to the blanket of stratus and 
steady southerly surface flow.

Tuesday and Wednesday.

A deep upper level trough positioned over portions of the Great 
Plains and Rockies Monday will continue to amplify and eject towards 
the upper Midwest. In response, a tightening pressure gradient and 
subsequent height/pressure falls will aid in sustaining 35-40 kt of 
southerly flow at 850mb, transporting unseasonably warm, moist air 
from the Gulf across Indiana tomorrow. Strong WAA and vertical 
mixing supports near-record high temperatures in the mid to upper 
70s. However, a trailing cold front approaching from the west may 
provide a small amount of synoptic ascent during the daytime for the 
development of a few mid-to-high level clouds that could hinder high 
temperatures by a few degrees, and prevent any records from being 
broken.  

By Tuesday evening, the trailing cold front associated with the 
trough will be approaching areas to the west bringing with it a thin 
corridor of 60+ dew points along the leading edge. Strong isentropic 
ascent in the warm sector, PWAT values ~1.5 in slightly exceeding 
the 99th percentile for early November will support the development 
of widespread rain and thunderstorms in Illinois that will traverse 
into Indiana with time. Despite 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear, 
near-zero convective instability will preclude any widespread severe 
threat. However, a damaging wind gust or two cannot be ruled out due 
to 50-55 kt winds just above the surface.

In addition, the CAMs are indicating the potential of a dry air 
intrusion to occur as the cold front passes through our area. In 
turn, combined with very limited instability, convection, and 
consequently rain rates, should weaken as the cold front traverses 
across Indiana. As a result, rainfall totals could range anywhere 
from 0.3-0.6 in, with areas in southern Indiana having the best 
chance for higher rainfall amounts where less of the dry air may 
preclude totals. However, in the event where the dry air intrusion 
may be weaker or training of convective cells occurs, rainfall 
totals could be as high as 1.5 in. Any flash flood potential will be 
mitigated due to the onset of dry soil conditions over the last 
month. 

Once the cold front traverses the region Tuesday night, Wednesday 
will bring light residual shower activity in the CAA region behind 
the cold front, and more seasonable air with highs reaching into the 
low 60s and lows reaching into the mid 40s.

Wednesday Night Through Monday.

Broad cyclonic flow and a cold core aloft may allow for lingering 
stratocumulus through Thursday, but sensible weather will remain 
dry. Highs will retreat into the low 60s on Thursday. Heading into 
Friday and the weekend, ensemble guidance paints a high confidence 
picture of a pattern shift toward more seasonable November weather. 
Surface high pressure will slowly build eastward out of the Plains 
while persistent northwest flow aloft dominates. Thermal profiles 
highlight 850mb temperatures falling near or slightly below 0C. This 
CAA regime will keep daytime highs suppressed in the 50s Friday 
through Monday, with overnight lows dipping into the 30s and 40s. A 
few weak shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow may pass 
through the Great Lakes over the weekend, but moisture return looks 
largely cut off by the Gulf of Mexico trajectory, keeping 
precipitation chances minimal. We will maintain a largely dry 
forecast through Monday with near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Impacts:

- Southerly wind gusts between 20-30 kt are possible during the day 
  today

- Marginal non-convective LLWS conditions are possible between 10-
  15Z today at the outlying TAF sites

- Widespread showers expected at the end of the TAF period

 Discussion:

Ceilings have lifted over the past few hours due to drier air 
advecting in at the lower levels. VFR conditions are expected 
through the period. However, Marginal non-convective LLWS conditions 
are possible towards daybreak as the LLJ ramps up ahead of an 
approaching system. This appears most likely near HUF/BMG with a low 
chance near LAF. This will remain brief enough to not warrant a 
mention in the TAF for LAF. Expect southerly winds through most of 
the period. Wind gusts between 20-30 kt are possible during the day 
today. Widespread showers are expected towards the very end of the
period as a low pressure system moves in late tonight into
Wednesday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...SM/White

285 
FXUS63 KLMK 040018
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
718 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread rainfall tonight into Wednesday will benefit the 
  ongoing drought. Amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be most common, 
  though a few locations (10% chance) may see totals surpass 
  3 inches. The risk of flooding is low.

* The risk for severe weather is low, though brief and localized 
  gusty winds exceeding 40 mph may (20-30% chance) accompany showers 
  tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Now - Wednesday Night...

Mild and gusty this afternoon with temperatures approaching record 
highs in the upper 70s and low 80s as we speak. Gusts have mostly 
been in the 20-30 mph range, and will start to slacken by late 
afternoon. Otherwise, look for increasing mid and upper sky cover, 
but conditions will stay dry through sunset.

Records:

SDF - 82 (2003) 
LEX - 78 (2024) 
BWG - 82 (1974)

As we move through tonight, expect intense low level jetting to 
increase up around 50-60 knots beneath the right entrance region of 
strong mid to upper level jetting (70+ knots). Meanwhile, a surface 
cold front will approach the lower Ohio/Wabash River Valleys by dawn 
on Wednesday. This will provide the setup for widespread rainfall 
later tonight into Wednesday as forcing from the dynamics mentioned 
above combine with high PWATs (1.6 - 1.7"). It is worth noting that 
the low level jet fetch does appear to tap into an Atlantic and Gulf 
moisture feed in addition to the deep moisture already associated 
with this system. Precipitation has trended with an earlier start 
time tonight (likely some scattered showers before Midnight EST), 
likely due to that combined moisture fetch from the western 
Atlantic/eastern Gulf initially before the main plume arrives a bit 
later.

Although the widespread rainfall will be beneficial to ongoing 
drought conditions, especially southern KY where D1-D2 is currently 
observed. There are going to be a couple of concerns as we navigate 
the system later tonight through much of the daylight hours on 
Wednesday. Recent model runs have trended more aggressive with 
overall rainfall totals as a few hundred J/KG of MUCAPE allows for 
some convective elements in the presence of high PWATs. Previous 
discussion mentioned a seasonably deep warm cloud layer combined 
with some training potential could lead to localized high amounts. 
We're seeing this in the CAM data has the latest runs of the REFs 
suggest localized amounts over 4" on the 48 hour PMM data. This may 
very well be weighted a bit too heavy from the FV3 and WRF ARW, but 
also can't rule it out given that NBM probabilities of > 4" through 
tomorrow have risen to around 10%, and probabilities over 3" are 
about 20-30% across south central KY. Given all this for 
consideration, like the messaging of a widespread 1 to 2", with 
localized amounts of 3-4" possible. For the most part, we should be 
able to handle these amounts, however the higher end could cause a 
few localized issues, especially in urban areas. The good news is 
that the signal for the highest totals does seem to line out with 
the worst current drought conditions.

The overall shear profile later tonight into Wednesday is quite 
impressive given the strong low level jet, and somewhat backed 
surface winds. The good news is that any surface or near-surface 
based instability looks to be pretty much non-existent. This will 
mostly mitigate the threat for any of the higher momentum air aloft 
to make it down to the surface with stronger showers/storms. That 
being said, can't completely rule out a few stronger gusts over 40 
mph possible early Wednesday through the afternoon. REFS probs of 
500 J/KG of SB CAPE do show a few pixels of 5-10% over southern KY 
tomorrow afternoon ahead of the front, so something we'll have to 
watch. SPC did bring a 2% Tor threat up to our SW CWA border, and 
could see a sliver of this threat extending into south central KY 
into Wed, but not sure the threat is even that high. Will call it 
non-zero for a brief spin-up, but not likely at all given the low 
level thermodynamic profile evident on soundings.

Thursday - Tuesday...

General troughing will continue to hold over the region through the 
late week time frame, ending with a closed upper low slowly exiting 
the eastern Great Lakes into the weekend. Expect this to be mostly 
dry stretch with the bulk of the data keeping the deeper moisture 
far enough north that we stay dry. Do expect some increases in cloud 
cover, especially as the trough axis and weak frontal boundary 
passes Friday.

Temperatures are expected to trend downward Thursday through 
Saturday with successive reinforcing (but dry) cool fronts. Highs in 
the upper 60s to around 70 on Thursday will give way to highs only 
in the 55 to 60 degree range by Saturday. Thursday night lows look 
to be in the 40s with Friday night lows more into the 30s to around 
40. Some frost is likely for early Saturday morning. Same as we 
trended downward with temps through Saturday, they will then trend 
steadily warmer Sunday through Tuesday, ending up back in the mid 
60s by early to middle next week. 

This should also continue to be a dry stretch of weather as 
unremarkable NW flow aloft and high pressure at the surface control 
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 718 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions and breezy SE winds to begin this TAF period. 
However, expect deteriorating conditions after 04Z Wed with the 
arrival of rain showers and a strengthening 40-50 kt low-level jet. 


A band of rain showers will work east across all five terminals 
between 04-09Z tonight, and scattered rain showers will be possible 
out ahead of the primary band. In addition, a developing 40-50 kt 
LLJ overhead will produce LLWS overnight into Wednesday morning. 
Between 09-17Z, expect low-end MVFR ceilings to envelope the region 
from west to east. Brief IFR/MVFR vsbys will also be possible in 
heavier rain showers. Cannot totally rule out an isolated rumble of 
thunder, either, but have kept the mention of TSRA to just BWG at 
this time. Low ceilings and steady to occasionally gusty SW winds 
will continue through the end of the TAF period, but with some 
improvements in ceilings by late Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJS
AVIATION...EBW