ThreatWeb

LIX extends time of Flood Warning for West Hobolochitto Creek near McNeil [MS] till Apr 8, 1:00 AM CDT

527 
WGUS84 KLIX 071423
FLSLIX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
923 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeil affecting Pearl River County.

For the West Hobolochitto Creek...including McNeil...Minor flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/lix.  Click 
on the Rivers and Lakes menu for forecasts and observations.

The next statement will be issued this evening.late tonight at 100 
AM CDT.

&&

MSC109-080600-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-250408T0600Z/
/MNLM6.1.ER.250407T1030Z.250407T1800Z.250408T0000Z.NO/
923 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...West Hobolochitto Creek near McNeil.

* WHEN...Until just after midnight tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 15.0 feet, Some secondary roads near the stream north 
  of Picayune will be inundated. Beech Street and Westchester 
  Subdivision below the confluence of the east and west branches 
  will be subject to flooding in low places.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:45 AM CDT Monday the stage was 15.2 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is near its crest of 15.3 feet. It will
    then fall below flood stage this evening.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3066 8971 3079 8966 3080 8961 3066 8959


$$

MEFFER

Source: LIX extends time of Flood Warning for West Hobolochitto Creek near McNeil [MS] till Apr 8, 1:00 AM CDT

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PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 9, 6:38 PM EDT

111 
FXUS61 KPBZ 092238
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
638 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow possible overnight through early morning, followed
by primarily rain chances lingering through Saturday. Temperatures
rise through Monday with dry weather, until another frontal 
passage is possible early-to-mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Increasing clouds and precipitation chances overnight.
- Rain chances linger through Thursday night, with some
  uncertainty if rain turns convective late-day Thursday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Made some minor adjustments to slow down PoPs through the early
overnight hours as, despite what the radar reflectivity returns
are suggesting, copious sub-cloud layer dry air below 700 mb on
recent PIT ACARS soundings is preventing rain from reaching the
ground; dew point depressions locally remain in the 20-30 
degree range. Thus, a period of wet-bulbing will be necessary to
overcome the dry air, and latest HRRR/RAP data shows wet-bulb 
temperatures above freezing everywhere south of I-80, so the 
area with the highest chance of seeing a brief period of snow at
onset remains up in that corridor. The forecast otherwise 
remains on track this evening...

A mid-level low continues to dig into the upper Ohio Valley 
tonight through Thursday, forcing some surface cyclogenesis. 
Low-level warm advection and lift is expected along a trough, 
that will force precipitation across the area overnight. Initial
precipitation may struggle to overcome initial dry air, but it 
will eventually break through by, at-least, sunrise for most. 
Wet bulbing effects with temperatures near freezing may result 
in an onset of snow (50% to 70%) along and north of the I-80 
corridor, primarily between 3am and 9am, though accumulations 
are forecast be less than 1" with 90% probability. Given 
marginal or above-freezing temperatures, impacts are expected 
to be limited save the potential for some slick bridges in 
northern Venango and Forest County.

As the warm front and adjacent cold front pull through, rain
will be most likely in the mid-morning and early afternoon, 
before the cold-core low settles in for the afternoon and 
overnight period in the upper Ohio Valley. There is some 
uncertainty whether precipitation ends, or if there will be 
enough instability under the upper low to increase shower 
chances into the evening. Should the precipitation turn more 
showery, dependent on instability, there is the potential for 
cold air funnels in any shallow updrafts tomorrow. Roughly 60% 
of ensembles show little (<10 J/kg) or no instability with 
overcast conditions favored, but there is a 10% chance of up to 
100 to 150 J/kg advecting from the southwest, which when 
combined with 100-200 0-1km SRH, could result in some spinning 
showers. Once again, this generally remains low probability but 
will warrant watching.

This environment persists into the overnight, though with the
loss of a heating component from the surface, the funnel threat
may end, though scattered showers may remain possible under the
destabilizing, cold-core low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances linger through Saturday.
- Wrap around snow possible Saturday in the highest terrain.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

A reinforcing shortwave is expected to dig into the upper-
Midwest, rounding the trough, and forcing secondary low 
development in the southern Appalachians. This mid-level forcing
may briefly make for a secondary closed low, before an 
elongated area of closed flow develops along the east coast. 
This will, in turn, bring the surface low up along its eastern 
flank, overspreading rain from Georgia to Maine. 

In the current forecast, the main low track utilizing the best 
moisture and forcing is to the east of the Appalachians, but 
depending on upper low placement, there is still a 10% chance 
the low could sit farther east and drop up to 1.5" along the 
high terrain , with up to an 1" in Pittsburgh. This would lead 
to more marginal flooding threats, but again, this remains only 
10% probable, with the rest of the ensembles taking the main 
storm to the east. 

Some snow is again possible in the highest terrain Saturday with
cold air wrapping around the backside of the low. Since most of
this is forecast during the day with marginal freezing 
temperatures, no impacts are expected, pockets of eastern Tucker
could see more than 1" if the snow rates remain high enough 
with orographic enhancement.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Uncertainty in early-to-mid week cold frontal passage.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensemble clustering is much more confident in the upper low
departure late Saturday into Sunday with ridging through Sunday
and Monday, which will warm temperatures back up to near/above
normal. By late Monday, the next trough is forecast to pass,
though there is timing uncertainty with the trough and adjacent
cold front, which would allow the next chances of rain and a 
cool down. By Tuesday at 8pm, roughly 60% of the ensemble 
guidance has eastern troughing behind a cold front, and 40% has 
a continued ridge. Should the trough pass, there is also 
uncertainty as to the strength of the trough and cold. 

By Wednesday and into late next week, uncertainty decreases yet
again with almost all ensembles and clusters showing that the 
trough has passed, with building ridging yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR is expected through early this evening as high pressure
moves east across the region, though mid and high level clouds 
will increase ahead of an approaching warm front.

Low pressure will track eastward across the Midwest tonight, as
the associated surface warm front lifts slowly north across the
Upper Ohio Valley region. Rain is expected to overspread the
region as the front approaches, with a gradual deterioration to
MVFR later tonight. Areas near and north of I 80 will likely see
a period of snow, or a rain/snow mix, with IFR conditions. 

Any snow will change to rain Thursday morning, with MVFR
continuing in rain. The rain will likely taper to showers during
the day following the passage of the warm front. 

Outlook... 
Restrictions ar expected through Thursday night in rain as low 
pressure crosses the region. Restrictions are likely to
continue, along with rain and snow showers, Friday through
Saturday night as an upper low drifts across the region. VFR
returns Sunday under high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Milcarek
NEAR TERM...MLB/Milcarek
SHORT TERM...Milcarek
LONG TERM...Milcarek
AVIATION...WM

Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 9, 6:38 PM EDT

---------------
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IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 9, 2:46 PM EDT

741 
FXUS63 KIWX 091846
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
246 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread light to moderate rain is expected this evening  
  and overnight, possibly mixing with light snow across far 
  northern areas along the IN/MI state line into northwest OH.

- A gradual warming trend is expected through the remainder of
  the week into the weekend, with temperatures returning back to
  above normal by Sunday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

A broad area of rain (and perhaps a rain/snow mix for some areas) 
will continue to expand in coverage and intensity through the late 
afternoon and evening hours, courtesy of substantial isentropic lift 
on the 290k surface ahead of a fast moving, shallow short wave 
trough poised to track across the area overnight. As the isentropic 
upglide weakens, strengthening PVA aloft will maintain precipitation 
chances through the night as the trough axis translates eastward 
across the CWA. In general, expect precipitation to primarily be 
rain as thermal profiles appear quite marginal for snow, but cannot 
entirely rule out a brief mix especially along the IN/MI state line 
into northwest OH where temperatures may drop into the middle 30s 
tonight. Any accumulations would likely be insignificant, with 
perhaps a couple tenths of an inch possible on grassy or elevated 
surfaces should a heavier snow shower move overhead. Rain chances 
should decrease markedly by 09-12z Thursday on the back side of the 
trough as a much drier air mass moves in, along with some larger 
scale subsidence. There will be some potential for patchy fog around 
this general time frame as gradients weaken given the recent 
widespread precipitation and lowering inversions, but at this time 
do not expect widespread dense fog. In general, expect Thursday to 
be mainly dry but did maintain some low-end (~15%) PoPs as some 
light instability driven showers cannot be entirely ruled out. The 
best chance for anything measureable should remain along/south of US-
24. A gradual warming trend can be expected through the weekend as 
upper-level ridging builds back into the region, with widespread 60s 
returning by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Developing rain today and deteriorating cigs later this
afternoon into tonight will be the primary aviation weather
forecast issues. Initial airmass is still quite dry and will 
take some time to moisten, so timing of rainfall has been pushed
back some. Latest thinking is now that rain shower chances will
increase at KSBN after 19Z and possibly closer to 21Z at KFWA. 
A lull in rain is possible early this evening before primary 
upper trough drops into the region with additional rain 
expected. Will maintain idea of trend to IFR conditions this 
evening as sfc low reflection tracks across central Indiana. 
Combination of low clouds and even some fog north of this low 
track could promote LIFR conditions later tonight. Visibilities 
should improve late morning Thursday, but ceilings are expected 
to remain IFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hammer
AVIATION...Cobb

Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 9, 2:46 PM EDT

---------------
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PAH continues Flood Warning for Mississippi River at New Madrid [MO] until further notice

526 
WGUS83 KPAH 121629
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1129 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...Kentucky...

  Mississippi River at New Madrid affecting Mississippi, New Madrid 
  and Fulton Counties.

  Mississippi River near Hickman affecting Fulton County.

For the Mississippi River...including Cape Girardeau, Thebes, 
Hickman, New Madrid...Major flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&

KYC075-MOC133-143-131830-
/O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NMDM7.1.ER.250407T0326Z.250412T1400Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1129 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River at New Madrid.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 38.0 feet, Heavy agricultural damage begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:00 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 39.7 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:00 AM CDT Saturday was 39.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 35.7 feet
    Tuesday, April 22.
  - Flood stage is 34.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3662 8962 3670 8935 3654 8935 3650 8935
      3648 8935 3648 8964


$$

KYC075-131830-
/O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HKMK2.3.ER.250405T1734Z.250412T1600Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1129 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River near Hickman.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:00 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 45.6 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:00 AM CDT Saturday was 45.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 40.8 feet
    Tuesday, April 22.
  - Flood stage is 34.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3669 8935 3671 8929 3664 8908 3654 8918
      3654 8935


$$

JGG

Source: PAH continues Flood Warning for Mississippi River at New Madrid [MO] until further notice

---------------
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JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 10:10 PM EDT

840 
FXUS63 KJKL 110210 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1010 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A series of cold fronts will bring a potential of showers and
  thunderstorms, with precipitation from the first front affecting
  the area at times mainly into Friday, and a good potential of 
  more rain with a second front Monday and Monday night. 

- Temperature swings can be expected over the next week due to the
  quick moving nature of significant weather systems.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT THU APR 10 2025

01Z sfc analysis shows an area of low pressure slowly pivoting
through eastern Kentucky tonight. This latest push brought 
scattered strong to severe storms to the area, just after peak
heating, with numerous reports of hail up to the size of quarters
and a few trees blown down. Now that the instability has waned 
look for a lull in activity through the rest of the evening 
before showers and a potential for storms redevelop. Currently, 
temperatures are rather mild across the area - running in the 
lower to mid 50s. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, 
dewpoints have come up dramatically from 24 hours ago and are now 
generally ranging from the low 40s north to the upper 40s 
southeast. Have updated the forecast to add in the latest obs and
trends for the T/Td grids along with a lull in the PoPs and 
thunder into the start of the overnight per radar and CAMs 
guidance. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web 
servers along with a freshening of the zones, SAFs, and HWO.

UPDATE Issued at 427 PM EDT THU APR 10 2025

Issued a quick update to raise PoPs area-wide in response to 
radar trends over the last couple of hours. This trend continues 
into the evening before blending back in to the previous PoPs. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 308 PM EDT THU APR 10 2025

Current surface analysis is rather active as a surface low is 
working out of the Central Plains toward the Eastern Seaboard. The 
occluding low is currently centered over southern Iowa; however, the 
quasi-stationary/warm front is extended eastward toward the Ohio 
Valley. The showers this morning were associated with the warm front 
lifting through the CWA. Behind the exiting warm front, the CWA has 
shifted into the regime of the warm sector which will bring the 
daytime highs into the low to mid-60s. Lastly, the cold front is 
draped southwestward into Missouri and back toward the Colorado High 
Plains.

The upper-level trough responsible for the surface low is forecast 
to continue to dive southeast with the area situated under the left 
exit region of the upper-level jet. As that upper-level jet moves 
over the area overnight into early Friday morning the surface low 
will dive southeast into the region with the trailing cold front. 
The cold front is expected to stay to the south of the the CWA but 
the surface low itself will cross into the CWA and as that occurs, 
increasing showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight tonight 
into Friday morning. The SPC has a Marginal Risk for the entire 
forecast area but in the early afternoon update, the SPC introduced 
a Slight Risk to portions of Wayne and McCreary Counties. Isolated 
strong to severe storms will be possible as the area has largely 
been able to clear out after this morning's shower activity but due 
to the timing of the low moving through the area, the severe threat 
should be limited. As the upper-level trough pivots eastward and the 
forcing moves with it, the surface low will eject out of the area 
slowly Friday morning/afternoon. 

Surface high pressure will build into the region throughout the day 
Friday but low-level moisture will keep cloud cover over the area. 
The immense cloud cover and CAA, behind the exiting system, will 
favor cooler temperatures on Friday; therefore, highs will only 
climb into the low to mid-50s. Continued clearing skies are expected 
for Friday night going into Saturday. However, the timing of the 
clouds exiting and peak cooling can and will present an issue for 
the development of frost overnight Friday into Saturday morning. 
Current guidance and forecast grids represent the area mostly under 
cloud cover, however, areas along and west of the I-75 corridor are 
forecast to be cloud-free or have limited clouds and therefore, 
frost development will be possible into Saturday morning. Otherwise, 
after the system exits late Friday morning, surface high pressure 
will build into the region and remain in place through the remainder 
of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT THU APR 10 2025

A significant upper level trough will be over the far eastern CONUS 
at the start of the long term period, with its axis to our east 
along or near the Eastern Seaboard. Most precip should have also 
advanced to our east with the trough. However, we should still be in 
a cool, upslope low level flow will be diminishing Saturday morning. 
This may keep low clouds and a few sprinkles lingering in our far 
eastern counties. Surface high pressure building in from the west as 
the upper trough shifts further east should bring dry weather area 
wide by late Saturday. 

The surface high is expected to pass over on Saturday night with 
light winds. Decreasing clouds with the cool and dry air mass in 
place will probably result in frost once again for much of the area 
by dawn on Sunday. The eastward departure of the surface high on 
Sunday combined with upper level ridging building in from the west 
will result in a sizable daytime warm-up.

A progressive pattern will continue, and the next upper level trough 
is forecast to deepen as it moves eastward from the northern and 
central plains on Sunday night to the Great Lakes Monday night. An 
associated surface low will send a cold front southeast toward our 
area on Monday, and then passing through on Monday night. Moisture 
return will be cut short by the fast moving system, but the system 
itself may be strong enough to overcome the limited moisture and 
bring showers/thunderstorms. The current forecast POP peaks in the 
chance category Monday night. 

Another chilly air mass by mid-April standards arrives behind the 
system's cold front for midweek, with a potential for more frost by 
dawn on Wednesday, and again on Thursday, for some places.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT THU APR 10 2025

As a surface low moves into the area scattered showers and storms
will affect the terminals this evening with a potential for MVFR
CIGs and visibilities - mainly handled with a Prob30. Otherwise,
conditions will be VFR with light winds into the first part of 
the overnight before CIGs lower. With this, terminals will fall 
into MVFR generally between 07 and 11Z. Showers and a 
thunderstorm or two are expected to move into the region with the
falling CIGs - persisting into the day Friday. These low CIGs and
pcpn chances will improve late in the period. Outside of any 
thunderstorm, winds will be light and variable for the period
though favoring the northerly direction on Friday proper. 

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAL/CMC 
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF

Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 10:10 PM EDT

---------------
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