ThreatWeb

119 
FXUS64 KMOB 031743
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1143 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

 - A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area
   beaches through Tuesday night. Surf heights up to 5 feet are 
   expected through Tuesday, with rough surf expected. 

 - Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous
   conditions for small craft through midweek.

 - A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday into
   Thursday, with a few periods of showers and thunderstorms
   possible across the area. The threat for severe thunderstorms
   is low at this time. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1043 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Rather calm night tonight looking at observational trends and recent 
GOES-16 IR/WV and Night Microphysics. Only item to mention is patchy 
upper-level clouds, with greater coverage increasing over the NW 
Gulf in association with a deepening upper-level low over the 
central US, accelerating upper-level moisture northeast over the 
Mexican Plateau. Meanwhile at the surface, downstream divergence 
ahead of the eastward drifting trough has resulted in surface low 
genesis over northern OK/southern KS, with a cold front draped south 
into north-central Texas where a few strong to severe storms 
continue. This will be the main focus in the short-term as this 
system approaches our area, so let's dive right into it!

We'll be seeing many notable changes over the next 12-24 hours in 
regards to the evolution in the system to our west. Beginning aloft, 
the greatest PVA/vorticity loaded at the apex of the shortwave 
impulse slingshots northeast, allowing in most jet dynamics/synoptic-
scale lift to eject quickly towards the Midwest along with the 
occluding surface low. This evolution is highly important in regards 
to what we'll experience here locally, as now we're within the 
depths of the convection allowing model time windows, and are 
acquiring a better idea of timing/windows and subtle threats 
possible. 

That aside, a pretty interesting feature in the western Gulf; 
lingering energy and broad cyclonic rotation aloft from a subtle 
inverted trough, responsible for recent heavy rains over the 
Florida Peninsula retrograding west, slowly. Can see this spin 
well on WV/IR trends tonight, and reflected in SPC 
Mesoanalysis/RAP trends. Zooming in towards the surface, we'll 
continue to see increasing southeasterly gradient surface winds 
offshore, around the northern apex of the surface trough. The 
combination of the approaching central US system and southerly 
moisture advection off the Gulf tries to amplify a small-scale 
zone of SE to NW oriented confluence banding, resulting in bands 
of showers and a few storms late Tuesday morning thru the 
afternoon and evening. These could need to be watched. Small-scale
banding like this can result in a very localized enhancement of 
shear/surface vorticity, when interacting with shallow cells can 
uptick the risk for a few waterspouts or even an isolated tornado.
Nothing substantial, by all means and conditional risk is rather 
low, but can sometimes be a curve ball and will need monitoring.

Otherwise, this activity drapes east overnight, mainly east of I-65 
and again, will continue to monitor as the mesoscale confluence 
banding orients more due south to due north thanks to deepening 
unidirectional low-level southerly flow taking over in response to 
the trough approaching. We could see a brief lull in rain chances 
overnight into early Wednesday, but still can't rule out periods of 
light drizzle at times. Meanwhile going later into the day, the 
front approaches and as mentioned earlier with the better/greater 
jet dynamics eject well north away from the area, the only lift 
left is mainly frontogenetic and supported with subtle instability 
for a broken line of showers/few storms at times sweeping slowly 
west to east. Will monitor far northern counties where a few gusty 
bands on radar can't be ruled out along the line, but coverage will 
thin out the closer you get to the coast. 

Thereafter going into Wednesday night and Thursday, will watch the 
front slow down as it aligns parallel to H5 flow aloft, resulting in 
almost no large-scale ascent left over than weak frontogenetic 
lift but likely will rain out with time as showers slowly drift 
into eastern areas (south-central AL/NW Florida) Wednesday night. 
Aloft, we're between impulses with quasi-zontal flow persisting, 
then the next shortwave impulse dives into the central US. With 
the front lingering around, will have to keep an mention of a few 
showers at times through Thursday, as any subtle frontogenetic 
lift lingering combined with destabilization during the day could 
support a few isolated showers at times. PoP's coming in from the 
recent 01Z NBM are a tad low, in the 10-20% range with better 
chances over eastern areas, which makes sense, but would not be 
surprised to see this increase some over the next few days but
should remain rather isolated regardless.

Best rain chances will return again on Friday as the impulse over
the central US dives southeast into our area, re-amplifying 
associated PVA/lift for more widespread showers at times. Nothing 
impactful standing out with guidance, and quickly gets a push out 
of here just in time for the weekend. 

The weekend is looking nice and cooler overall as ridging amplifies 
in the west-central US owing in downstream convergence aloft and 
surface high to dive into the region. Lows in the 30's can't be 
ruled out for northern parts of the area Sunday thru Tuesday, 
perhaps even tapping into the mid to low 30's for northern areas 
Tuesday morning once winds relax under the surface high and we're 
within the window of maximized radiational cooling - some of the 
coldest air so far this season. Something we'll look closer at in 
the coming days. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR ceilings improve to mostly VFR this afternoon, then lower to
MVFR this evening, with the potential for IFR/LIFR ceilings with
possible fog late tonight. Conditions improve to MVFR/VFR
Wednesday morning. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible
through much of the period. Southeasterly winds around 10 knots
diminish to 5 knots or less this evening, then a mainly southerly
flow at 5-10 knots develops Wednesday morning. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1211 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A moderate to strong easterly flow continues through Tuesday with 
a tight pressure gradient over the northern Gulf. Winds will 
shift southeasterly Tuesday night as a system approaches the area 
from the west. Winds gradually decrease and turn southerly 
Wednesday, becoming offshore Wednesday night through the weekend. 
Seas remain near 5-7 feet today and will gradually decrease 
throughout the week. 
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      66  83  63  82 /  20  30  30  10 
Pensacola   70  81  68  80 /  50  20   0  20 
Destin      71  80  69  80 /  70  40  10  20 
Evergreen   64  83  61  81 /  60  60  30  40 
Waynesboro  64  81  53  81 /  20  40  10  10 
Camden      64  80  59  77 /  70  70  30  10 
Crestview   67  83  64  82 /  70  50   0  30 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

&&

$$

137 
CDUS41 KCLE 032226
CLICLE

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH
526 PM EST TUE NOV 03 2026

...................................

...THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 3 2026...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0515 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1871 TO 2026


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         75    251 PM  79    1961  57     18       55       
  MINIMUM         58   1221 AM  19    1951  41     17       38       
  AVERAGE         67                        48     19       47     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  TODAY            T                         0.13  -0.13      T       
  MONTH TO DATE    0.01                      0.37  -0.36      T       
  SINCE SEP 1      4.37                      7.90  -3.53     4.62     
  SINCE JAN 1     29.85                     35.04  -5.19    34.59     

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
  TODAY            0.0                       0.1   -0.1      0.0      
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                       0.2   -0.2      0.0      
  SINCE SEP 1      0.0                       0.3   -0.3      0.0      
  SINCE JUL 1      0.0                       0.3   -0.3      0.0      
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                              
  TODAY            0                        17    -17       18        
  MONTH TO DATE    9                        49    -40       55        
  SINCE SEP 1    315                       444   -129      405        
  SINCE JUL 1    319                       450   -131      438        

 COOLING                                                              
  TODAY            2                         0      2        0        
  MONTH TO DATE    2                         0      2        0        
  SINCE SEP 1    175                       128     47       84        
  SINCE JAN 1    930                       946    -16      898        
...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                            
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    21   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (200)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    29   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SW (210)       


SKY COVER                                                             
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                                 
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.6                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                    
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.                             
  LIGHT RAIN                                                          
  FOG                                                                 


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST    97          1200 AM                                      
 LOWEST     52           400 PM                                      
 AVERAGE    75                                                        

..........................................................


THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   56        79      2003                      
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   40        16      1991                      


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                    
NOVEMBER  3 2026......SUNRISE   701 AM EST   SUNSET   520 PM EST     
NOVEMBER  4 2026......SUNRISE   703 AM EST   SUNSET   519 PM EST     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

564 
FXUS63 KIND 031143
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
643 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and near record warmth are expected today with 
  highs in the mid 70s, wind gusts up to 30-35 mph are possible today

- Widespread rain arrives late tonight and continues into Wednesday

- A return to more seasonable, cooler temperatures is expected late 
  this week through early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

A low pressure system and parent deep trough currently located near 
the Central Plains will lift northeastward through the day today. 
The low pressure system is expected to continue deepening as it 
pushes into the Midwest before eventually occluding on Wednesday. 
Meanwhile, a strong LLJ continues to shift eastward which will help 
to advect warm, rich Gulf moisture northward late today into 
tonight. 

Increasing dynamics from the approaching system combined with deeper 
moisture surging northward supports widespread precipitation by late 
tonight. The greatest precipitation chances are from late tonight 
through Wednesday morning as a narrow corridor of strong isentropic 
ascent moves across an anomalously moist warm sector. The strongest 
forcing should then begin to shift east of the area Wednesday 
afternoon leading to lower coverage of showers. Lingering moisture
and marginal forcing will likely still support scattered light 
showers or drizzle at times though. QPF amounts over an inch 
appear possible across southeast portions of central Indiana, 
where the strongest forcing and deeper moisture are likely to 
overlap.

Diurnal mixing into the strong LLJ may promote strong wind gusts up 
to 35 mph during the day today. Isolated higher gusts cannot be 
completely ruled out. Near record temperatures in the mid 70s are 
also possible from the strong southerly flow. The forecasted high 
temperature for Indianapolis this afternoon is 76F and the record 
high temperature is 77F. Clouds may limit overall heating slightly 
which leads to some uncertainty. It is worth noting though that the 
latest guidance has trended towards less cloud cover during the day 
thanks to drier air briefly filtering in ahead of the low pressure 
system.
  
Quiet weather conditions are expected Wednesday night into Thursday 
once drier air filters in behind a cold front. Model guidance 
generally depicts multiple shortwaves moving through the region 
within northwest flow aloft late this week through early next week. 
Weak forcing from these features could support low rain chances at 
times, mainly Friday and Sunday, but limited moisture return due to 
the Gulf remaining cutoff leads to lower confidence. Cold air 
advection will lead to cooler more seasonable conditions later this 
week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s by Friday. Seasonable 
conditions then persist through early next week, featuring highs 
generally in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 643 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Impacts:

- Southerly wind gusts between 22-32 kt are possible during the day 
  today

- Marginal non-convective LLWS conditions are possible through 15Z 
  today at the outlying TAF sites

- Widespread showers expected late tonight into Wednesday morning

 Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through this evening. However, Marginal 
non-convective LLWS conditions are possible through 15Z before winds 
pick up and begin to gust. This appears most likely near HUF/BMG 
with a low chance near LAF. This will remain brief enough to not 
warrant a mention in the TAF for LAF. Expect southerly winds through 
most of the period. Wind gusts as high as 22-32 kt are possible 
during the day today. Expect widespread showers by late tonight as a 
low pressure system moves in.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Melo

Sorry, product text is unavailable.

241 
NOUS41 KILN 011232
PNSILN
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-020045-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
732 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

...GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO
AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA...

As of November 1st, the National Weather Service office in
Wilmington, OH will no longer issue Frost/Freeze headlines for the
following counties:

In Ohio...

Mercer, Auglaize, Hardin, Darke, Shelby, Logan, Union, Delaware,
Licking, Miami, Champaign, Clark, Madison, Fairfield, Preble, 
Montgomery, Greene, Fayette, Hocking, Butler, Warren, Clinton. 

In Indiana...

Wayne, Fayette, Union, Franklin. 

All other counties remain in an active growing season, with
Frost/Freeze headlines continuing as needed until November 7th
unless a hard freeze occurs before then. 

A map of the counties that remain in the program can be found at
www.weather.gov/iln/fallfrostfreeze.

$$