ThreatWeb

992 
CDUS44 KMOB 130630
CLIMOB

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
130 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026

...................................

...THE MOBILE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 12 2026...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1842 TO 2026


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         89   3:16 PM  97    2019  88      1       92        
  MINIMUM         73   3:17 AM  53    1940  70      3       65        
  AVERAGE         81                        79      2       79     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  YESTERDAY        T             8.23 1979   0.18  -0.18     0.00     
  MONTH TO DATE    2.90                      2.20   0.70     0.02     
  SINCE SEP 1      2.90                      2.20   0.70     0.02     
  SINCE JAN 1     48.48                     49.98  -1.50    51.10     

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                              
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0        
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0        
  SINCE SEP 1      0                         0      0        0        
  SINCE JUL 1      0                         0      0        0        

 COOLING                                                              
  YESTERDAY       16                        14      2       14        
  MONTH TO DATE  213                       180     33      163        
  SINCE SEP 1    213                       180     33      163        
  SINCE JAN 1   2467                      2159    308     2336        
...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                            
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    13   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (190)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    18   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     S (180)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     3.0                                        


SKY COVER                                                             
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.5                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                    
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                         
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                                  


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST   100           3:00 AM                                      
 LOWEST     61          11:00 AM                                      
 AVERAGE    81                                                        

..........................................................


THE MOBILE CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   88        97      2019                      
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   70        55      1940                      


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                    
SEPTEMBER 13 2026.....SUNRISE   6:36 AM CDT   SUNSET   7:01 PM CDT     
SEPTEMBER 14 2026.....SUNRISE   6:37 AM CDT   SUNSET   7:00 PM CDT     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

243 
FXUS61 KCLE 150550
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
150 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The forecast largely remains on track and no significant changes
were needed with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool temperatures and dry weather expected tonight.

2) An unsettled and humid weather pattern returns Tuesday
through late week. A few strong storms are possible in Northwest
Ohio Tuesday night, although confidence is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... 
High pressure will remain in place over the region through 
tonight. Clear skies will allow for efficient radiational 
cooling and expect lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s. A few 
spots across interior NE PA may manage to drip into the low to 
mid 40s if cooling ends up being more efficient than currently 
anticipated. This will be the last chilly night of the workweek 
before temperatures warm up Tuesday onwards.

KEY MESSAGE 2... 
After a brief break in the unsettled weather pattern, multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely impact the area
late Tuesday through at least Thursday. The first round of
showers and thunderstorms will arrive behind a warm front and 
with a pre-frontal trough Tuesday evening. There is a small 
chance of a couple of stronger storms Tuesday evening into 
Tuesday night, although most CAMs suggest that the best 
instability will be to the west of the local area and storms 
will be coming in during a diurnally unfavorable time of day. 
The severe weather risk may be a little bit higher if storms end
up moving in earlier than currently anticipated, but either way
bulk shear values of around 30 knots supports an SPC Marginal 
Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather with damaging wind gusts
being the main concern.

From there, a cold front will push southeast across at least a
portion of the area before slowing and wavering over the region
Wednesday through late Thursday. This will result in periodic 
showers and thunderstorms for the mid to late week timeframe. 
There may be opportunities for a few stronger storms given the 
proximity of the front, but there is still uncertainty in the 
exact placement of the boundary and the amount of instability in
place each afternoon. Will need to keep an eye on the forecast 
and update as needed. 

It will also be quite humid and warm across the area with highs
in the 80s and dew points in the upper 60s and low to mid 70s 
Wednesday and Thursday. PWAT values will increase to 1.5 to at 
least 2 inches during this time and flow parallel to the 
boundary may result in potential in heavy rainfall rates and 
training showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions will continue for the bulk of the TAF period with
high pressure exiting out of the region. On the back side of
this system, winds are becoming southerly across the region with
a mix of mid- and high-level clouds entering with a warm front.
Some low cumulus clouds will try to develop during the afternoon
hours today and some mixing in the warm sector behind the warm
front could allow for some brief 20 to 25 kt wind gusts. A
weakening cold front will approach from the west toward the end
of the TAF period, bringing lowering ceilings along with some
rain and storm chances. With the front on a slowing and
weakening trend and entering during a diurnal minimum, rain will
be fairly scattered and any thunder activity will be limited to
Northwest Ohio, where some PROB30s for TS have been introduced.
Otherwise, the bulk of rain activity will hold off until after
the TAF period and TS chances will remain low until Wednesday
for most sites.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible at times in scattered showers/storms
Wednesday through Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds will continue through early this
evening before shifting to the southeast and increasing to 10 to
20 knots ahead of an approaching warm front tonight into Tuesday
morning. There may a brief period where winds in the nearshore
zones (especially in the western basin) touch 20 knots Tuesday
morning, however confidence in winds of 20+ knots is highest in
the open waters. Have opted against a Small Craft Advisory for
the time being, but will need to keep an eye on wind speeds.
The offshore winds will mitigate wave heights and keep the risk
of rip currents relatively low. Offshore winds will diminish to
roughly 10 to 15 knots Tuesday evening with flow becoming more
southwesterly behind the warm front Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Northeast winds of 10 knots or less are expected on
the lake as a frontal boundary wavers over the region Wednesday
with flow becoming variable Thursday through the end of the
week. Winds/waves should remain below Small Craft Advisory 
limits late this week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...15

428 
FXUS63 KIND 140701
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
301 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and less humid today

- Hot and humid conditions returning Tuesday and lasting 
  potentially through late week with highs reaching the 90s

- Periodic thunderstorm chances late Tuesday through the end of the 
  week

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A brief break from the warmer weather comes today as high pressure 
in tandem with a quick moving upper trough within the band of 
westerlies will move into New England by this evening. Upper ridging 
will expand back north into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday with a 
resumption of hot and humid conditions through midweek along with a 
periodic threat for thunderstorms as a frontal boundary becomes 
quasi-stationary over the lower Great Lakes. The ridge will persist 
over the southeast U S through the weekend with the front drifting 
into the area during the second half of the week before retreating 
back north. Above normal temperatures will continue for much of the 
period with slightly cooler air holding off until early next week.

Today through Wednesday Night

Clear skies early this morning as Canadian high pressure has taken 
over across the region. With dewpoints into the 50s and northeast 
winds...comfortable temperatures at 06Z ranging from the mid 50s to 
the mid 60s. 

The presence of the high as it moves east from the Great Lakes into 
New England by this evening will produce a brief break from the 
warmer weather experienced much of the first half of September so 
far. The heat and humidity however will return in earnest as early 
as Tuesday with return flow on the back side of the departing high 
advecting a hot and humid airmass back into central Indiana through 
midweek.

A notable area of deep subsidence will accompany the high pressure 
today and pivot across the northeast half of the forecast area. This 
will aid in a spectacular day highlighted by sunny skies...much 
lower humidity levels and cooler temperatures. Diurnal cu will be 
limited to the lower Wabash Valley primarily where afternoon 
humidity levels will be subtly higher. As mentioned...this is 
temporary with the hot and humid airmass suppressed to the south 
drawing back into the area Tuesday as ridging aloft expands into the 
Ohio Valley Tuesday. 

A cold front will track into the Great Lakes and mid Mississippi 
Valley on Tuesday. A broad area of convection will develop this 
evening over the upper Midwest aided by a strong low level jet and 
accompany the boundary as it drifts south into Tuesday morning. 
There does appear to be potential for convection and remnant cloud 
debris to make it as far south as the northern Wabash Valley prior 
to the weakening of the 850mb flow during the morning hours 
otherwise expect much of the day will be dry for the forecast area. 
By late day...the remnant outflow boundary from the complex tonight 
and early Tuesday may serve as a focus for renewed convection within 
a highly unstable airmass across the northern half of the forecast 
area. A capping inversion will be present south of Interstate 70 
where mainly sunny and hot conditions will persist. Model soundings 
show steep lapse rates through 700mb with DCAPE values over 1000 
j/kg. A lack of BL shear will keep convection pulsating in intensity 
but stronger cells will carry a damaging wind risk that will last 
into the evening. 

The front will slip into the northern half of the forecast area 
Tuesday night and Wednesday with the potential for periodic storms 
overnight Tuesday then again Wednesday afternoon and night as subtle 
waves aloft ripple through the region. With PWATs in the 1.75 to 2 
inch range and ample instability in place...convection will carry a 
risk for locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Temps...low level thermals today support highs ranging from the mid 
70s northeast to the lower 80s in the lower Wabash Valley with 
comfortable humidity levels. Highs will recover into the low and mid 
90s Tuesday with heat indices around 100 degrees in the afternoon. 
Temperatures for Wednesday are more conditional and are dependent on 
convective coverage. Have highs ranging from the upper 80s north to 
mid 90s south but if the boundary can make it further south and 
there are more clouds and storms...daytime temperatures will end up 
lower.

Thursday through Sunday

The Ohio Valley will remain in between the strong upper ridge to the 
south and the band of westerlies to the north...resulting in the 
frontal boundary retreating back north at the end of the week as 
heights aloft rise yet again. Convection will largely be isolated 
and diurnally driven both Thursday and Friday. A sharper upper level 
wave will track across the northern tier of the country this weekend 
suppressing the ridge back to our south. Consequently the front will 
be pulled back south into the forecast area as well with an increase 
in clouds and scattered convection. 

Temperatures will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s for much of 
the area Thursday through Saturday falling back into the lower and 
mid 80s as the boundary drops into central Indiana on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1240 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

Mainly clear skies early this morning as high pressure settles over 
the region. The high will move across the Great Lakes today and into 
New England tonight. This will result in continued VFR conditions 
with northeast winds early this morning veering to easterly for much 
of the day and then to southeast tonight. Thin cirrus will drift 
across the area at times but not expecting a subtle increase in 
clouds until predawn Tuesday as return flow develops.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. 

&&

$$

AVIATION...Ryan
DISCUSSION...Ryan

807 
FXUS63 KLMK 132344
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
744 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* This evening and tonight, a weak cold front could bring an 
  isolated shower or storm, mainly across southern Indiana and 
  northern Kentucky.

* Tuesday, overall drier and hotter conditions arrive as an upper 
  ridge builds. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Tuesday 
  afternoon.

* Heat remains through at least Thursday this week, before chances 
  for showers and storms enter the forecast at the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

The cold front will move through the region this evening. Very 
isolated showers will be possible over southern Indiana. Otherwise, 
tonight we will see temperatures cool down into the upper 50s and 
low 60s. 

On Monday and into Monday night, surface high pressure centered over 
the Ohio Valley will move east and southerly flow will return to the 
region. High temperatures will be in the 80s, and most likely the 
coolest day of this week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

On Tuesday, ridging will be centered over the Ohio Valley. Surface 
high pressure will keep pushing east, which will promote 
southwesterly flow into the region. A low pressure system will move 
through southern Canada, which will tighten the pressure gradient 
over the region. Breezy winds, increased moisture, and hot 
temperatures are expected for Tuesday. Peak heat indices will be 97-
100F (in the Bluegrass) and 100-106F elsewhere. A heat advisory has 
been issued for the western half of the region for Tuesday.

Similar conditions will last through at least mid week. High 
temperatures will remain in the mid 90s through Thursday. A heat 
advisory will likely need to be continued through mid week. Given 
the time of year, these temperatures and heat indices are unusual 
(about 10-12 degrees above normal). HeatRisk is expected to be Major 
(level 3/4) Tuesday through at least Thursday. NBM (and associated 
guidance) is likely not handling temperatures as well, given decent 
southwesterly flow and the beginnings of the transition season. 
Therefore, have bumped temperatures bit a bit, specifically 
overnight. Looking at records, we may approach both high 
temperatures and warm mins this week.

Moving into Friday and the weekend, ridging remains over the 
southern CONUS, though multiple shortwaves will attempt to move 
across the region. This would bring isolated to scattered showers 
and storms and slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 743 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions will continue this evening and likely through the 
whole TAF period. Winds will be gradually shifting from the NW to 
the N in the next few hours across LEX-RGA-BWG, eventually becoming 
a light NE wind for all by Monday morning. Passing SCT-FEW clouds 
will move through overnight but remain at VFR heights. Mostly clear 
skies by morning will prevail with likely enough wind to prevent fog 
formation. NE winds and SKC-FEW clouds at VFR heights will linger 
through Monday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ 
     Tuesday for KYZ023>030-038-045-053-061>064-070>076.
IN...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ 
     Tuesday for INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...BKF

270 
FXUS61 KILN 132334
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
734 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and storms possible this afternoon and evening with a 
marginal risk of severe weather.

2) Additional chances for precipitation are expected during the 
middle part of next week, along with warming temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

A cold front will progress through the area this afternoon and 
evening. Isolated showers and storms are possible ahead of the 
front. A marginal risk for severe storms exists given fairly robust 
deep layer shear (50+ knots winds aloft) and low to moderate 
instability in place (~1000 J/kg MLCAPE). However, storm coverage 
appears to be on the lower end and shear is mostly straight line 
without much veering in the wind profile. Damaging wind gusts are 
the most likely threat in any strong storms. The most likely area for
storms to occur is across central Ohio.

The shower and storm chances end this evening after FROPA. There 
will be a noticeable drop in dew points behind the front as winds 
shift to the northwest tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Southerly flow redevelops across the Ohio Valley by Tuesday 
afternoon/evening after a warm front lifts through the region 
bringing the return of warm, humid conditions. Rain chances start to 
increase Tuesday night north of I-70 and spread south through the 
end of the work week. A stationary front slowly sagging south likely 
will act as a focus for rainfall. Zonal upper level flow could 
support weak shortwave troughs periodically increasing chances for 
rain through the week. 

Tuesday likely features the most widespread heat before temperatures 
across the north slowly moderate with the front slowly sinking into 
the area. Areas south of the Ohio River may not experience FROPA 
until the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the taf period.
Surface winds remain near 10 kts through most of the night, shifting
from the N to NE by daybreak. Some mid level clouds may pass during
the overnight period.

Diurnal cu expected to develop on Monday. Surface winds may actually
trend slightly lower throughout the day, but remain between 5-10 kts
and continue to veer towards the ENE.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Campbell
AVIATION...Clark