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LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 30, 11:13 PM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

446 
FXUS64 KLIX 010513
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1113 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
 
 - A surface low will approach the area today from the southwest,
   spreading light to moderate rain across the area. Best timing
   will be from late morning through around daybreak Tuesday.  
   Area averaged rainfall totals of 0.5-1.5" can be expected, but 
   could see a band of locally greater rainfall totals of 1.5-2+" 
   for NW or central areas. 

 - Much colder air filters into the region following this system,
   providing another freeze for areas along/north of I-10/12
   Wednesday morning. 

 - This active pattern continues going into Thursday and Friday,
   with another system expected to deliver rain to the area. More
   details on this system will become clearer over the next few
   days. 


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Plenty to discuss tonight as we've entered a temporary lull
between two systems. The first one earlier today produced light
showers for a few areas, dissipating towards the east leaving only
drizzle behind and since, has turned fully dry across the entire
area. Meanwhile, CAA has built into the region following a frontal
passage introducing noticeably cooler air to the area. Had to 
play a little catchup with temperatures earlier as CAA overwhelmed
the diurnal curvature late afternoon into the evening, revealing 
a slight reduction and has since lowered MinT's towards Monday 
morning towards the cooler side of guidance (blend of 75th and 
50th, deterministic was above the 75th) to follow this trend. 

Monday starts out cool and cloudy for all areas, while we shift
our focus to the southwest at our next system. A subtle impulse
crossing the Mexican plateau, coupled with an approaching positive
tilt shortwave trough over the central/southern Rockies will 
support downstream divergence and eventual low-genisis in the 
western Gulf, riding this low northeast over the remnant frontal 
boundary during the day on Monday into Monday night. Quite the 
overall dynamic meteorological setup with a broad low passing 
generally over out coastal/marine areas, with plenty going on in 
the meteorological realm. Greatest/strongest 300k isentropic 
lift/ascent will remain confined near the low and to the east, 
supporting increasing shower activity spreading inland over 
coastal MS/AL, meanwhile, overrunning deeper curl-back of H6-H7 
isentropic ascent combined with dynamic ascent will support an 
elevated shield of stratiform precipitation to the northwest. As 
mentioned for a few days now, the synoptic support for a 
deformation band to form remains possible somewhere from Lafayette
to Hattiesburg, as the RRFS-A continues to depict and now, to a 
slightly lesser extent, recent HRRR runs. Going through the HREF 
suite shows a diverse number of solutions representing different 
banding intensities (NAM Nest and HRW NSSL being the most
prominent along with the RRFS-A, with the recent HRRR and ARW/FV3
mix being a bit more "watered down" - no pun intended). 
Regardless, the more extreme members depict a very noticeable 
higher QPF corridor, somewhere in the 2-3" range in the corridor 
mentioned earlier, with more widespread 0.5-1.5" elsewhere. I'm 
not seeing any distinctly concerning impacts related to this 
potential band, as rainfall intensities in an elevated stratiform 
shield should be relatively moderate and over a longer duration, 
at best. Probably slow enough to allow the ground to soak up some 
of this water, which we need. We'll monitor if this band is more 
intense and is slow in any eastward progression (resulting in 
training), where flooding could occur but for now, concur with the
area- wide marginal risk of excessive rainfall. 

Additional notes include seeing some 100-200j/KG MUCAPE across the
region, could have a rumble of thunder or two but kept the best
probabilities/mention of thunder confined closer to the
steepest/strongest isentropic ascent near and to the east of the
low's track. Might also get a few strong to locally severe storms
in the warm sector or closest to the lift associated with the low.
Also, highs during the day on Monday were nudged down due to 
widespread cloud cover and light stratiform showers building into 
the region during the morning/afternoon, probably starting as 
virga as we've got quite the dry layer aloft between H7-H5 per the 00Z
KLIX RAOB.

All rain departs early Tuesday morning to around daybreak Tuesday,
becoming lighter with time and CAA/NW winds build into the region.
Skies clear out as we get into the late morning/afternoon but
still overall chilly with highs primarily in the 50's with a
breezy NW wind. 

That'll bring us to Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as the bulk of
the continental polar airmass settles into the region supported by
a surface high over the northern Gulf. Clear skies and calm winds
will support maximized radiational cooling to bring a cold night
for all areas. Guidance coming in pretty warm, above the 75th
percentile and did add in a nudge down below the 75th, this brings
below freezing temperatures along and north of the I-10/12
corridor, where Freeze Warnings will likely be in effect. Not
reaching the Southshore yet with upper 30's to low 40's. KLG


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night) 
Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

High pressure builds east of the region during the day on
Wednesday, producing a steady E to SE sfc return flow back to the
area. The next system is ready to take shape over the southern
US/western Gulf in a similar setup to what we'll see today - a
positive tilt trough diving into the central/southern Rockies and
a secondary upper-level low over Baja ejecting energy NE across
the Mexican Plateau. Build WAA and dynamic ascent in the region
will support yet another round of showers Thursday into Friday.
Still have some questions on specifics, but will wait for as we
get closer but it is looking likely we'll see another soaker
Thursday and Friday. We try to see a brief dry period getting into
Saturday, but it looks short-lived as long-range guidance hints at
a pretty active quasi-zontal H5 pattern over the US, providing
quick-hitting systems to continue. Something to monitor. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Focus tonight will continue to be low CIGs for almost all
terminals, providing IFR to times of LIFR across the region. 
Could see a brief period of some improvement from 10-14Z this 
morning, but will be intermittent, potentially providing MVFR at 
times. The next system approaches the area from the southwest 
later Monday morning, lasting into the overnight hours. Expecting 
SHRA for all terminals, causing periodic lower VIS and low CIG's 
reducing flight categories. SHRA activity departs after 06Z TUE 
before being fully out of the area around 12-15Z TUE and NW winds 
build into the region. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Changes since last update: Added Small Craft Advisory for GMZ575 and 
577 in effect through noon Monday. Exercise caution for all waters 
expect MS sound and Lake Pontchartrain/Maurepas from Noon Monday 
through 9PM Monday night. 

New: Small Craft Advisory in effect for all waters 9PM Monday 
through 3PM Tuesday.

Tonight, a recent frontal passage has introduced gusty wind at 
around 18-22kts from the NE, which will persist overnight into 
Monday morning ahead of the next developing surface low over the 
western Gulf. As this low drifts northeast, it'll cross gulf waters 
providing a round of heavy rain and thunderstorms primarily from 
Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. In any one storm, 
waterspouts, winds <34kts and locally higher waves/seas can be 
expected. As this low passes, confidence on how strong winds will 
remain outside of thunderstorms remains in question. There is now 
exercise caution headlines as the low passes, but could be upgraded 
to advisory if conditions warrant. Then, as the low passes early 
Tuesday to the NE, strong NW winds will increase across waters at 
around 15-20kts, with the 2nd round of Advisory headlines in effect. 
Waves/seas will respond reaching around 5-7ft in this time frame 
mainly for Gulf waters, 3-5ft for protected waters. High pressure 
builds into the region mid-week, with winds and waves/seas calming 
down, but still expecting another system to impact the region 
Thursday and Friday, with increasing winds and shower/thunderstorm 
activity expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  41  53  37  49 /  20  90 100  10 
BTR  44  59  39  52 /  20  90 100  10 
ASD  42  64  42  55 /  10  70 100  10 
MSY  51  64  47  56 /  10  70 100  10 
GPT  47  64  46  57 /  10  60 100  10 
PQL  44  64  46  58 /  10  60 100  20 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 3 PM CST Tuesday for 
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 3 PM CST Tuesday for 
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...KLG

Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 30, 11:13 PM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

---------------
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6 W Reedsville [Monongalia Co, WV] Amateur Radio reports Snow of 4.00 Inch at 13 Dec, 11:00 PM EST --

927 
NWUS51 KPBZ 141205
LSRPBZ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
705 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     Snow             6 SE Fairmont           39.42N 80.07W
12/13/2025  M5.3 Inch        Marion             WV   Amateur Radio    

             

1100 PM     Snow             6 W Reedsville          39.51N 79.92W
12/13/2025  M4.0 Inch        Monongalia         WV   Amateur Radio    

             

1100 PM     Snow             1 SW Glover Gap         39.61N 80.41W
12/13/2025  M3.0 Inch        Marion             WV   Amateur Radio    

             


&&

$$

Source: 6 W Reedsville [Monongalia Co, WV] Amateur Radio reports Snow of 4.00 Inch at 13 Dec, 11:00 PM EST --

---------------
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SOUTH BEND Dec 10 Climate Report: High: 38 Low: 31 Precip: 0.21" Snow: 0.8"

043 
CDUS43 KIWX 110041
CLISBN

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025

...................................

...THE SOUTH BEND CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 10 2025...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0700 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2025


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         38    430 AM  64    1971  38      0       42       
  MINIMUM         31    659 PM -10    1919  24      7       32       
                                      1958                           
  AVERAGE         35                        31      4       37     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  TODAY            0.21          1.39 1971   0.07   0.14     0.00     
  MONTH TO DATE    0.61                      0.78  -0.17     0.24     
  SINCE DEC 1      0.61                      0.78  -0.17     0.24     
  SINCE JAN 1     32.03                     37.61  -5.58    37.61     

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
  TODAY            0.8           6.5         0.3    0.5      0.0      
  MONTH TO DATE    5.6                       3.3    2.3      6.1      
  SINCE DEC 1      5.6                       3.3    2.3      6.1      
  SINCE JUL 1     32.7                       8.6   24.1      9.0      
  SNOW DEPTH      MM                                                  

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                              
  TODAY           30                        34     -4       28        
  MONTH TO DATE  420                       326     94      334        
  SINCE DEC 1    420                       326     94      334        
  SINCE JUL 1   1546                      1635    -89     1215        

 COOLING                                                              
  TODAY            0                         0      0        0        
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0        
  SINCE DEC 1      0                         0      0        0        
  SINCE JAN 1    986                       723    263      958        
...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                            
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    29   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    SW (220)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    44   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SW (220)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED    16.2                                        


SKY COVER                                                             
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                                 
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 1.0                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                    
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.                             
  LIGHT RAIN                                                          
  SNOW                                                                
  LIGHT SNOW                                                          
  FOG                                                                 
  FOG W/VISIBILITY <= 1/4 MILE                                        


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST    96           700 AM                                      
 LOWEST     75           600 PM                                      
 AVERAGE    86                                                        

..........................................................


THE SOUTH BEND CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   38        64      1949                      
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   24        -7      1917                      


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                    
DECEMBER 10 2025......SUNRISE   802 AM EST   SUNSET   515 PM EST     
DECEMBER 11 2025......SUNRISE   802 AM EST   SUNSET   515 PM EST     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

Source: SOUTH BEND Dec 10 Climate Report: High: 38 Low: 31 Precip: 0.21" Snow: 0.8"

---------------
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Newburgh [Warrick Co, IN] Fire Dept/Rescue reports Snow of 1.30 Inch at 11 Dec, 8:25 PM CST -- Moderate snow still falling and roadways are now covered.

617 
NWUS53 KPAH 120232
LSRPAH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
832 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     Snow             Newburgh                37.95N 87.40W
12/11/2025  M1.3 Inch        Warrick            IN   Fire Dept/Rescue 

            Moderate snow still falling and roadways are 
            now covered. 


&&

$$

DW

Source: Newburgh [Warrick Co, IN] Fire Dept/Rescue reports Snow of 1.30 Inch at 11 Dec, 8:25 PM CST -- Moderate snow still falling and roadways are now covered.

---------------
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JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 13, 7:15 AM EST

930 
FXUS63 KJKL 131215 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
715 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
 
- Areas of dense freezing fog will affect mainly the mid to high
  terrain of much of eastern Kentucky south of the Mountain
  Parkway for another hour or two this morning.

- Another light, to possibly moderate, snowfall is on its way for
  this evening into early on Sunday, mainly north and east of a 
  Stanton to Jackson to Whitesburg line. 

- An arctic airmass moves into our region for late tonight and
  Sunday with significantly below normal temperatures and bitterly
  cold wind chills on tap.

- Nearer to, if not above normal, temperatures can then be
  expected from Tuesday through the end of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025

Watching the area web and traffic cams there appears to be signs
of improvement to the dense freezing fog situation. Will keep 
monitoring for a possible temporal extension to the current advisory.
Otherwise, have included the latest obs and trends for the 
T/Td/Sky grids with this update. These minor adjustments have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the 
zones and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 515 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025

09Z sfc analysis shows an area of deep low pressure to the north
of Kentucky with an approaching cold/Arctic front off to the 
northwest of the state. Ahead of this impactful boundary, earlier
clear skies and the recent snow allowed areas of dense fog and a 
low stratus to develop through much of eastern Kentucky generally 
along and south of the Mountain Parkway nearly to the Tennessee 
border. With temperatures for much of that area at 32 degrees or 
less this has resulted in dense freezing fog. Accordingly, a 
Dense Freezing Fog Advisory is in effect until 13Z. Otherwise, 
temperatures are running in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the
JKL CWA. Meanwhile, amid mostly light westerly winds, dewpoints 
are running in the upper 20s to lower 30s, as well, with most 
places reporting near 100 percent RH on account of the fog - 
though a little bit of a dewpoint depression shows up north of 
the Mountain Parkway. 

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in 
pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the 
forecast. They all depict a large eastern trough at 5h centered 
north of the eastern Great Lakes. This feature amplifies greatly 
through the next 24 hours with a sharp pivot southeast that sends
an impressive node of mid-level energy through the lower Ohio 
Valley and much of Kentucky by 12Z Sunday. This wave and its 
height falls sweep over eastern Kentucky later tonight through 
Sunday morning before departing to the east. This process will be 
enhanced by the right rear entrance of a 3h jet streak passing 
just north of the Ohio River between 00 and 06Z tonight. This 
extra enhancement will contribute to the lift available for the 
sfc system and its snow as it passes through. The still pretty 
small spread among the models generally supported using the NBM as
the starting point of the forecast grids with minimal adjustments
needed - mainly to include more of the CAMs details in PoPs along
with some terrain enhancement late this afternoon through Sunday 
morning.

Sensible weather features a very active 24 to 36 hour period for
eastern Kentucky with what appears to be the grand finale of this
recent bout of colder than normal start to the cool season. We
start off this morning with the potential trouble caused by the
dense freezing fog for most of the area south of the Mountain 
Parkway - perhaps lingering into the mid morning hours in some 
places. Earlier the SPS for this concern was upgraded to a Dense 
Freezing Fog Advisory as the threat lingered. Next up, the Arctic
front will blow in here starting late this afternoon in the north
and then dropping southeast through the night with its enhanced 
lift from upper level dynamics likely able to give the northeast 
quarter of the JKL CWA some 1 to 2 inches of snow - perhaps as 
much as 3 inches in northern Fleming County. Falling temperatures 
through the column will lead to climbing SLRs making for fluffier 
snow that should maximize its fairly meager QPF. Accordingly, a 
Winter Weather Advisory is in place for that portion of eastern 
Kentucky from late this afternoon (in the northwest) through this 
evening and into the morning on Sunday. The blustery northwest 
winds behind the front will bring in easily the coldest air of the
season so far with single digits expected towards dawn west and 
wind chills sub zero for those parts of the area. This prompted 
the issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory based on the different 
climatological regions of eastern Kentucky with the southernmost 
tier having slightly milder criteria for an advisory. The CW 
Advisory starts at 1 am tonight for the western and southern 
counties running through 1 pm on Sunday. Should the cold air come 
in a bit quicker or winds stay up enough post frontal this may 
need to be extending areal-ly through the rest of the CWA. Either
way, Sunday will be a bitterly cold day in that Arctic air mass 
with afternoon temperatures only in the mid teens northwest and 
low 20s in the southeast. This is a very complicated situation 
into Sunday morning with overlapping advisories in effect. 
Definitely a day to stay weather aware and prepare for the snow 
and cold to come tonight. 

The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on 
adding in more details for the PoPs from the latest CAMs guidance
and some terrain enhancement to the snow later tonight. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 530 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025

While one more night of bitterly cold weather is expected at the 
beginning of the long term forecast period, a prominent pattern 
shift is poised to produce much milder conditions for the upcoming 
work week. The northwesterly flow responsible for the advection of 
an arctic airmass into the forecast area at the end of the short 
term forecast is expected to back towards the west and then the 
southwest as the week progresses. The resultant return of ridging 
and midlevel height rises favor a warming trend before two late-
period storm systems approach. Warmer antecedent temperatures will 
limit the potential for widespread winter weather with these two 
systems, a welcome relief from the snowy and cold start to December. 

When the period opens on Sunday evening, the ground will likely be 
covered in a dry, powdery snow. Northwesterly mid-/upper-level flow 
will remain in place for one more night around the backside of an 
eastward-propagating trough. At the surface, a high pressure system 
will be passing directly overhead. Together, these features favor 
efficient radiational cooling, and MinTs are accordingly forecast to 
drop in the single digits area-wide by Monday morning. However, the 
surface high's proximity will keep winds light and variable and 
reduce the wind chill effect. Models collectively depict 850mb 
temperatures warming above the -10 degrees Celsius threshold in this 
time frame. Therefore, confidence in reaching Cold Weather Advisory 
criteria is lower on Sunday night than it is on Saturday 
night/Sunday morning. Higher-terrain locations near the Virginia 
state line are most likely to do so, but decided hold off on 
issuance for now. Interests are still encouraged to bundle up for 
the Monday morning commute though, as these low temperatures are 20-
25 degrees cooler than climatological averages for mid-December in 
Eastern Kentucky.

Surface flow becomes southwesterly on Monday as the high pressure 
system settles into the Southeastern CONUS. The winds aloft will 
weaken and adopt more of a westerly component, and 850mb 
temperatures should finally climb above freezing on Monday 
afternoon. Under mostly clear skies, surface temperatures in the 
southern half of the forecast area should recover into the mid 30s. 
The cold air will hang on for the longest in areas north of the 
Mountain Parkway, where the snowpack is highest and where there 
could be some cloud cover. Thus, one more day of freezing high 
temperatures appears likely in our northern counties. There is some 
model disagreement on the magnitude of potential ridge-valley MinT 
splits on Monday night into Tuesday. Some of the available 
deterministic MOS guidance drops valley locations into the single 
digits again, but the ensemble probabilities for temperatures less 
than 10 degrees Fahrenheit are less than 20 percent. The coarser-
resolution long term forecast guidance doesn't necessarily pick up 
on small-scale local geographic effects, but the bias-corrected 
baseline NBM guidance populated widespread MinTs in the lower half 
of the 20s. For this forecast package, temperatures were bumped into 
the upper teens in the typically colder shaded/sheltered valley 
locales as a middle-ground solution. If higher-resolution guidance 
reinforces confidence in the more dramatic splits, future forecast 
packages may require further edits. 

Quasi-zonal flow aloft and the southern surface high will keep the 
sensible weather quiet on Tuesday and during the daytime hours 
Wednesday. Southwesterly winds will become breezy in response to a 
system passing well to the north of the forecast area. This 
displaced disturbance looks rather weak and moisture starved, but it 
should still foster a noticeable mid-week warming trend. The entire 
forecast area should warm up above freezing and perhaps into the 40s 
on Tuesday afternoon, allowing any remaining snow to melt off. 
Increasing cloud cover could limit the amount of radiational cooling 
on Tuesday night, and ridge-valley temperature splits look less 
likely then. Pre-midnight lows near freezing are possible, but the 
persistence of warm air advection should result in temperatures in 
the mid 30s by the time the run rises on Wednesday morning. Expect 
afternoon highs to warm further into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 

A second, stronger disturbance will dig into the Great Plains on 
Wednesday night into Thursday, leading to renewed precipitation 
chances in the forecast area. With surface temperatures well above 
freezing, any overrunning precipitation with this system's warm 
frontal passage will fall as rain. The warm air advection regime is 
expected to strengthen behind that boundary. The flow aloft will 
become southwesterly ahead of the approaching trough axis, and 
southerly to southwesterly surface winds will strengthen amidst a 
tightening pressure gradient. Southwesterly wind gusts of 25-30mph 
are possible out ahead of the system's cold front. High temperatures 
in the mid/upper 50s will yield widespread rain showers, and some 
convective activity cannot be ruled out. The negative tilt of the 
parent troughing aloft and a strengthening 850mb jet points towards 
potentially favorable shear parameters, but modeled instability 
remains meager due to slower dewpoint recovery. Model trends will 
need to be monitored closely with this late-week system, but for 
now, the set-up favors generic gusty rain showers amidst seasonably 
warm highs in the upper 50s/near 60. Once the cold front sweeps 
through the area on Thursday night, temperatures should quickly drop 
into the 30s. The colder airmass will also be drier though, and a 
widespread changeover to snow on Friday is not anticipated.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025

Dense fog and freezing fog, due to stratus build down and/or 
where there has been some snowmelt will impact TAF locations such 
as KJKL, KLOZ, KSJS, and KSME through 13 or 14Z. Low clouds, at 
IFR or lower, will also hold on at all sites and nearby ridgetop 
locations into dawn. Some small improvement can be expected into 
the afternoon, even as a cold front nears and moves across eastern
Kentucky. With this, some MVFR and IFR reductions linger in the 
northeast portions of the area through the end of the period. 
Snow is also forecast to develop in the more northern locations 
before the end of the day, and this will probably affect KSYM 
after about 22Z shifting southeast through the night with a 2 to 4
hour of impact on VIS at any terminal. Generally, light and 
variable winds are expected through the bulk of the period 
becoming northwest at 5 to 10 kts late.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST 
Sunday for KYZ044-050>052-059-060-104.

Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106-108-111.

Freezing Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for KYZ058-059-
068-069-079-080-108>118-120.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST 
Sunday for KYZ106>110-112-113-115-118>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GREIF

Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 13, 7:15 AM EST

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