ThreatWeb

587 
FXUS63 KIND 092333
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
733 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rivers have already reached or are expected to reach moderate to 
  major flood stage in Central and South Central Indiana, primarily 
  in the White and East Fork White River basins

- Widespread, significant river flooding continuing through at
  least the next 1 to 2 weeks in some spots

- Thunderstorms possible on Thursday, mainly south of I-74. A few 
  storms may be strong with gusty winds and small hail.

- Brief warming trend begins this weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Another dreary, wet day across Central Indiana. Latest satellite and 
observations show an area of low pressure over Northern MO with 
widespread clouds and showers extending eastward into Central IL and 
IN. A quasi-warm frontal 925-850mb boundary extends from the low 
along the I-74 corridor while the region remains in an area of large 
scale lift ahead of an approaching jet streak. A 35-45 kt 
southwesterly low level jet is advecting moisture aloft over the 
boundary where widespread showers have developed today. Despite a 
good set up for rain, ACARs soundings reveal very dry air within the 
boundary layer that is slowly saturating as precipitation falls 
aloft. Wet bulbing within the lowest layer and a saturated DGZ has 
allowed for snow to make it down to the surface at times this 
afternoon along and north of the I-70 corridor. Despite surface 
temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s, this set up is good for 
snowflakes to reach the surface. Little to no impacts from snow 
expected. 

This first round of showers will move through over the next several 
hours as the low to mid level boundary lifts northward ahead of the 
approaching low pressure system. Surface quasi-warm frontal boundary 
likely remains south of the area today as upstream ACARs and forecast 
soundings keep a low level inversion over the region through tomorrow 
morning. The low level jet ramps up after sunset tonight, further 
strengthening the low level inversion while steepening mid level 
lapse rates. Expect additional convective showers to develop along 
the trailing cold front this evening. MUCAPE values are fairly weak, 
so not expecting much lightning with this second round; however an 
isolated lightning strike is not out of the question for portions of 
South Central Indiana. Main threat will be brief periods of moderate 
to heavy rain within the 8PM to 2AM timeframe tonight.

Overall rainfall amounts today should remain below a third of an 
inch over the next 24 hours. This rainfall is Not expected to 
exacerbate the ongoing flooding threat in Central and Southern 
Indiana; however it may delay and slow down the rate water recedes 
over the next several days. 

Thursday...

The area of low pressure from Wednesday passes by to the east 
southeast leaving the region within a west-northwesterly flow 
pattern. Cold air advection behind this system is relatively weak... 
in fact stronger surface heating will result in much warmer 
temperatures tomorrow within the low to mid 60s. Another weak mid 
level wave rounds the base of a deepening trough overhead, which may 
spark off showers and a few thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon along 
and southwest of the I-74 corridor. Shear is relatively weak, but 
steepening lapse rates, sufficient low level moisture, and CAPE 
upwards of 1000j/kg may result in an environment conducive for brief 
strong storms capable of producing small hail and gusty winds. This 
threat is mainly for South Central Indiana. Rainfall amounts 
Thursday afternoon likely will not be uniform due to the scattered 
nature of the convection. Any shower or storm may be able to produce 
a quick quarter to half inch of rainfall...further slowing down the 
rate of river levels receding from recent floods.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Thursday night...

Some lingering showers or thunderstorms will be across mainly 
southern sections of central Indiana during the evening hours as 
forcing from the system shifts south. 

Some uncertainty remains on the timing of the cold front, which 
leaves some questions about the amount of instability left in the 
evening hours. If the front is slower, then enough instability will 
remain for a few strong to potentially severe storms in the far 
southwestern portions of the area. If it's faster, the severe threat 
will be south of the area. Will continue to monitor. Damaging winds 
and large hail would be the severe threat.

Rain chances will diminish into the night as the system moves out of 
the area.

Friday and Friday night...

Colder air will move back in for this period with upper troughing 
still over the area. Clouds will diminish Friday night as high 
pressure builds into the area. This will allow temperatures to fall 
to around freezing by Saturday morning.

Saturday and Sunday...

The weekend will be dry and warmer with high pressure in control at 
the surface and upper ridging aloft. 

Monday...

As an upper low moves into the northern Great Lakes area, a surface 
cold front will move through the area. This should have some 
moisture to work with given southerly flow ahead of it. Thus, will 
have some chance PoPs for this. Thunderstorms will be possible, but 
with uncertainty remaining in just how much moisture (and thus 
instability) will be present, the severe threat remains unclear.

Temperatures may climb into the lower 70s ahead of the front.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Cooler temperatures return with an upper trough in the vicinity. 
Odds of rain remain low though through the day Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 733 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Impacts: 

- Showers developing tonight

- MVFR conditions expected with periods of IFR possible late tonight 
  into Thursday morning

Discussion:

Weak low pressure will push through the area overnight into 
Thursday, with showers expected to persist and increase in coverage 
overnight. Significant low level dry air has been a limiting factor 
thus far, and will likely keep much of the evening VFR.

Widespread MVFR conditions will likely develop later tonight once 
precipitation moistens the lower levels from aloft. Guidance appears 
a little aggressive with IFR conditions, but cannot rule it out 
entirely. Will carry SCT007 at all sites and PROB30s for 
showers/fog/IFR ceilings for a period late tonight to account for 
this.

Conditions will return to VFR during the late morning/midday hours 
Thursday, though additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will 
become possible. These chances are far too uncertain for inclusion 
at this point in the TAF cycle.

Winds will be between easterly and southerly depending upon the site 
early in the period, with all gradually becoming northwesterly later 
in the period as the low center passes. Sustained winds will be at 
or below 10KT through the period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Nield

913 
WGUS83 KLMK 110146
FLSLMK

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
846 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Green River at Rochester affecting Butler, Ohio and Muhlenberg 
  Counties.

  Green River at Woodbury affecting Butler and Warren Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Rough River near Dundee affecting Ohio County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. Most flood related deaths 
occur in automobiles. Do not attempt to cross water covered bridges, 
dips, or low water crossings. Never try to cross a flowing stream, 
even a small one, on foot. To escape rising water find another route 
over higher ground.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/lmk.

The next statement will be issued by Friday afternoon at 115 PM CDT.

&&

KYC031-177-183-111815-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-250415T1415Z/
/RCHK2.3.ER.250403T2232Z.250409T0715Z.250415T0815Z.NO/
846 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Green River at Rochester.

* WHEN...Until late Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 34.0 feet, Rochester Ferry stops operation. 
  At 37.0 feet, Reeds and Rochester Ferries remain closed. KY 369 
  floods one mile north of Rochester.
  At 44.0 feet, KY 1117 floods near Mining City.
  At 45.0 feet, KY 70 floods between Dunbar and South Hill. Water 
  enters basements in some homes along river in Rochester.
  At 46.0 feet, KY 70 floods one mile north of Rochester.
  At 47.0 feet, Rochester is cutoff.
  At 50.0 feet, Water approaches first floor of some homes in 
  Rochester. Several county roads closed.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:45 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 51.8 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 34.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 7:45 PM CDT Thursday was 52.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    early Tuesday morning and continue falling to 35.3 feet
    Tuesday evening.
  - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    50.7 feet on 03/07/1997.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3728 8680 3718 8690 3727 8697 3739 8678


$$

KYC031-227-111815-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-250414T0316Z/
/WDHK2.2.ER.250403T2210Z.250407T0430Z.250413T2116Z.NO/
846 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Green River at Woodbury.

* WHEN...Until late Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 26.0 feet, KY 403 at James McKinney Bridge floods. 
  Water overflows lock wall.
  At 30.0 feet, Several county roads flood near Woodbury.
  At 32.0 feet, Low spots on North and South Church Streets in 
  Woodbury flood.
  At 33.0 feet, Old Ferry River Road in Aberdeen floods.
  At 36.0 feet, Many parts of Woodbury flood.
  At 38.0 feet, KY 403 between James McKinney bridge and Three Tile 
  Lane floods. US 231 south of Sawmill Road in Morgantown floods.
  At 40.0 feet, US 231 at Russellville Road and the William Natcher 
  Parkway interchange floods. Morgantown High School is cutoff.
  At 41.0 feet, Water approaches KY 403 on opposite side of town 
  near levy. Travel is difficult into town.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 39.3 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 24.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:00 PM CDT Thursday was 41.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    Sunday afternoon and continue falling to 18.1 feet Tuesday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    37.3 feet on 11/20/1984.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3713 8641 3716 8665 3728 8680 3739 8678
      3728 8659 3724 8641


$$

KYC183-111815-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DUNK2.2.ER.250403T1918Z.250406T1400Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
846 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Rough River near Dundee.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 25.0 feet, County roads between Dundee and Narrows 
  flood.
  At 26.0 feet, County roads near Sunnydale flood.
  At 27.0 feet, KY 919 flood at Underwood and Clifty Huff Roads near 
  Narrows.
  At 28.0 feet, Trailer courts in Hartford flood.
  At 29.0 feet, KY 136 at Heflin Road floods near county line. KY 69 
  floods near intersection of US 231 in Hartford.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 27.9 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 23.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:00 PM CDT Thursday was 28.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 26.1 feet Tuesday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    27.4 feet on 03/02/2021.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3755 8649 3743 8694 3743 8710 3752 8713
      3751 8696 3766 8653


$$

BTN

213 
FXUS61 KILN 092353
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
753 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the middle Mississippi River Valley will slowly
move across the Ohio Valley tonight and Thursday. This will bring
warmer temperatures and increased chances of precipitation. Cooler
temperatures will follow to close the work week before a ridge of
high pressure offers a warm up heading into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A southwesterly low level jet will provide impetus for isentropic
lift tonight. This will combine with a warm front draped across the
Ohio Valley to bring rain through the early morning hours. Lows will
generally remain in the 40s tonight due to thick clouds and
precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface low pressure will arrive into the region on Thursday.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the low will lift temperatures into the
upper 50s to middle 60s by afternoon. There could be a few showers
and storms develop in the warm sector across our southern counties
for the afternoon due to the arrival of modest instability. Late in
the day, a sagging cold front will bring colder air into the CWA from
north to south. Low temperatures will dip into the upper 30s to lower
40s in the cold air advection behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep mid level trough over the region at the beginning of the period 
will develop into a closed low over the Appalachians. This will then 
translate eastward early next week. As that occurs, mid level 
ridging will move across the area on Sunday. Next short wave will 
move into the Great Lakes on Monday with a trailing short wave 
tracking into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday.

At the surface, a low will move from the southern Appalachians into 
the Tidewater, becoming rather expansive over time. This will keep 
clouds across eastern counties with less cloud cover further west. 
Where this gradient in cloud cover sets up is still a bit of a 
question. This will affect the potential for frost Friday night as 
temperatures fall into the 30s. High pressure will finally build in 
over the weekend allowing skies to clear areawide, with more 
potential for frost Saturday night.

As the high moves off to the east and a cold front approaches, the 
pressure gradient will tighten on Monday allowing for some gusty 
winds. There will be showers and possibly some thunder as the front 
moves through Monday afternoon and evening. Some additional showers 
will be possible on Tuesday with a secondary front. 

Cool temperatures to start the period, but there will be a warming 
trend with readings near normal on Sunday and above normal on 
Monday. But then temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 

Periods of rain will continue into the overnight hours. Some IP may
mix in during the first few hours of the taf period before converting
to all rain. Rain will be light and intermittent to start the taf
period, but there should be an increase in coverage during the middle
of the night. Some MVFR vsby reductions possible with the rainfall. 

CIGs still likely drop to MVFR, but this is trending later in the
night. MVFR CIGs expected to continue into tomorrow as the surface 
low tracks through the area. Cold front eventually moves through 
Thursday afternoon, resulting in a wind shift from the SSE to NW.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday evening. MVFR CIGs 
likely Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Clark

128 
CDUS41 KBOX 060631
CLIBDL

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
231 AM EDT SUN APR 06 2025

...................................

...THE HARTFORD CT CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR APRIL 5 2025...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1904 TO 2025


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         49   1036 AM  82    1921  56     -7       49       
  MINIMUM         39   1142 PM  19    1982  35      4       33       
                                      1995                           
  AVERAGE         44                        45     -1       41     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  YESTERDAY        0.45          1.92 1952   0.12   0.33      T       
  MONTH TO DATE    0.99                      0.61   0.38     1.97     
  SINCE MAR 1      5.50                      4.42   1.08     9.96     
  SINCE JAN 1     10.13                     10.83  -0.70    20.20     

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
  YESTERDAY        0.0           1.2  2006   0.1   -0.1      0.0      
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                       0.4   -0.4      0.6      
  SINCE MAR 1      T                         9.8   -9.8      0.6      
  SINCE JUL 1     21.7                      51.0  -29.3     24.6      
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                              
  YESTERDAY       21                        20      1       24        
  MONTH TO DATE   86                       104    -18      106        
  SINCE MAR 1    773                       949   -176      734        
  SINCE JUL 1   4581                      5286   -705     4492        

 COOLING                                                              
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0        
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0        
  SINCE MAR 1      0                         0      0        0        
  SINCE JAN 1      0                         0      0        0        
...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                            
  RESULTANT WIND SPEED   3   RESULTANT WIND DIRECTION   E (110)       
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    17   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    SE (140)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    21   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     S (160)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     6.6                                        


SKY COVER                                                             
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                                 
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.9                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                    
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                         
  HEAVY RAIN                                                          
  RAIN                                                                
  LIGHT RAIN                                                          
  FOG                                                                 


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST   100           900 PM                                      
 LOWEST     48           900 AM                                      
 AVERAGE    74                                                        

..........................................................


THE HARTFORD CT CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   56        81      1921                      
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   35        17      1982                      


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                    
APRIL  6 2025.........SUNRISE   625 AM EDT   SUNSET   722 PM EDT     
APRIL  7 2025.........SUNRISE   623 AM EDT   SUNSET   723 PM EDT     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

378 
WGUS84 KMOB 080848 RRA
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
348 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Leaf Near Mclain affecting Greene, George and Perry Counties.

For the Leaf River...including Mclain, New Augusta...Minor flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-111-090900-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0025.250408T1123Z-250411T0742Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.250408T1123Z.250409T1800Z.250411T0142Z.NO/
348 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Leaf near Mclain.

* WHEN...Until early Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:15 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 17.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this morning to a crest of 20.0 feet early tomorrow
    afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage Thursday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3116 8892 3123 8892 3116 8877 3100 8871
      3098 8879 3109 8884


$$