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IWX issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Oct 10, 4:34 AM EDT ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

312 
FLUS43 KIWX 100834
HWOIWX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
434 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

INZ012-103-104-203-204-MIZ078-177-277-110845-
Starke-Northern La Porte-Eastern St. Joseph IN-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Cass MI-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-
434 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 /334 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and 
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

INZ005>009-013>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-116-216-MIZ079>081-
OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-110845-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-
Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-
Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern Kosciusko-Southern Kosciusko-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
434 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest 
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Frost Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

LMZ043-110845-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-
434 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of 
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

$$

LMZ046-110845-
Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
434 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of 
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

$$

Source: IWX issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Oct 10, 4:34 AM EDT ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

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PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 12:12 PM CDT

136 
FXUS63 KPAH 111712
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure will keep the next 7 days dry and seasonally
  mild.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Despite the Omega blocking-like pattern's hold, there are
subtleties at play in the otherwise 7 day forecast of dry and
seasonally mild conditions. One example is our current cloud 
cover associated with a subtle pva kink in the overtop-the-ridge
flow. Gridded time/height cross sections suggest this ribbon of
moisture manifest with the associated deck of clouds lingers 
into the mid morning hours before it disperses. If that holds, 
fog chances should lessen. But if/where breaks occur, fog can 
quickly become an issue, esp in our far east. We'll have to keep
a close eye upon it thru daybreak but will stick with our 
inherited/persistence strategy nowcast for now.

The warmest temps of the period look to be in the early half of
the next work week, when H5 heights peak into the 588 DM range,
reflecting a 60+ DM increase from now. This will lead to a bump
back into the lower 80s starting Monday but esp Tuesday and
potentially bleeding into Wednesday, which by then will
represent an almost 10 degree above seasonal normal high. Lows
move similarly, into the mid 50s, also close to 10F above norms
by then.

The high stays strong enough to maintain its predominant 
influence thru the remainder of next week, but does show signs 
of breaking down a little as low pressure presses in upon it 
from the west by week's end. In response, temps should retreat 
back a little, more solidly into the 70s for highs, but still 
round out a few degrees above normal on the daily. Rain chances 
look scarce until 200+ hours into the forecast, so perhaps 
before the end of the following weekend we'll see them 
re-emerge.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated through at least the next 12
hours with generally light prevailing easterly winds. Ground fog
could be an impediment in the early morning hours Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JGG

Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 12:12 PM CDT

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JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 12, 7:40 AM EDT

919 
FXUS63 KJKL 121140 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
740 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, seasonably pleasant weather is expected to continue for the
  next seven days for eastern Kentucky.

- Temperatures will remain near or just above climatological
  averages for much of the upcoming week. 

- While confidence in specific details is low, the next chance of
  rain will likely come next weekend. 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. 
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones. Did also issue a short term
SPS for some locally dense valley fog this morning. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley
still dominating the weather for Kentucky though there is a
significant storm off the southeast coast that is sending some
high clouds into eastern parts of the area. These clouds, and some
lingering ones from a nearby dissipating front, did not slow down
the radiational cooling all that much this night. As a result, a 
moderate ridge to valley temperature difference was noted through 
the night along with the development of some fog in the river 
valleys. Currently, temperatures range from the mid 50s on the 
hills to the mid 40s in the low spots. Meanwhile, amid light 
northeasterly winds, dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper 
40s. 

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the 
forecast. They all depict a twin poled trough east of the Ohio 
Valley and through the Southeast at 5h. The northern center near
Pennsylvania will drift south with time into the start of the new
work week while the southern core slowly lifts north to 
eventually be absorbed into one minima off the Mid-Atlantic Coast 
toward the end of the period. Upstream of this trough ridging will
nose into Kentucky from the southwest keeping the pattern quiet 
and benign over this part of the state - with any mid level energy
staying well to the east through Monday and beyond. The models' 
continued small spread supported the NBM as the starting point of 
the grids with minimal adjustments needed - mainly just terrain 
driven enhancements to the hourly temperatures at night.

Sensible weather features seasonably warm temperatures during the
days with dry conditions through the start of the new work week.
Any lingering high clouds from the sfc cyclone well east of
Kentucky will likely not interfere with the dry air's ability to 
warm each day. Valley fog can be expected late at night (and early
each morning) along with modest ridge to valley temperature 
differences. 

The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
elevation/terrain differences in the temperatures at night along 
with some extra drying applied to the dewpoints and RH during the 
afternoons. Did also tweak afternoon temps a notch higher today, 
as well. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025

Once again the main changes to the extended forecast this morning
were to enhance the terrain based differences of a ridge to 
valley split to the temperatures each night through the upcoming
week, along with a touch of extra drying each afternoon from the
mix down of lower dewpoints aloft. PoPs still appear to be quite 
limited during the upcoming week but there is increasing 
confidence in chances of showers or storms returning to the area 
for next weekend. 

The previous long term discussion follows:

The beginning of the long term forecast period continues to be 
defined by atmospheric ridging and generally good agreement amongst 
the available pieces of forecast guidance. A cold front is poised to 
approach the forecast area by mid-week, but its impacts will likely 
be limited to only a modest cool down. The pattern begins to shift 
towards the end of the forecast period, but this corresponds with 
increasing model spread and decreasing confidence in the extended-
range sensible weather forecast. Therefore, confidence is high that 
conditions will remain on the dry side through at least Friday, 
October 17th. 

When the period begins on Monday morning, midlevel ridging will be 
building into the greater Ohio River Valley. The influence of this 
feature will increase headed into Tuesday, and the associated 
subsidence and height rises point towards dry and warm sensible 
weather. At the surface, the commonwealth will be positioned between 
a pair of phasing coastal cyclones off the Atlantic coast and a 
quickly-ejecting Canadian low. This leads to a broad area of 
relatively high pressure to the west of the forecast area, which 
favors persistent north-northeasterly surface flow. Together, this 
pattern favors mostly clear skies and seasonably warm temperatures 
for Monday and Tuesday. Expect highs in the low to mid 70s in the 
first half of the work week, with overnight ridge-valley temperature 
splits. While ridgetops will likely see lows in the 50-54 degrees 
range, efficient radiational cooling will allow valleys to easily 
cool into the 40s. This also favors the formation of overnight 
river valley fog, but the persistent dryness could gradually 
reduce the spatial coverage of said fog with each passing night
this week.

By mid-week, the cold front associated with the aforementioned 
Canadian low is forecast to approach the Ohio River Valley, but it 
will be in somewhat of an orphaned state. The ejection of the parent 
cyclone into the Hudson Bay and the northward displacement of all 
mid/upper level dynamic forcing will limit this system's ability to 
produce widespread cloud cover, let alone precipitation. Persistent 
northerly wind components throughout the column will keep the column 
fairly dry before, during, and after FROPA, further suppressing the 
PoPs. There is a signal for some midlevel cloud coverage in the 
northern half of the forecast area on Wednesday associated with the 
front, but the only real sensible weather impact from the mid-week 
system will be slightly cooler temperatures. Efficient diurnal 
warming could still allow cloudless southwestern portions of the 
forecast area to warm to the mid-70s on Wednesday, but overnight 
lows are poised to cool into the 40s area wide by Thursday morning. 
By Thursday afternoon, longwave troughing will have amplified over 
the Eastern CONUS and shunted the early-week ridge back towards the 
Ozarks. This translates towards cooler afternoon MaxTs (upper 60s) 
across the northeastern half of the forecast area, with low 70s 
still forecast closer to the ridge in vicinity of Lake Cumberland.  
  
The shifting of midlevel synoptic features on Thursday marks the 
beginning of an overall pattern change, although the forecast 
guidance suite begins to diverge around this same time. The forecast 
generally trends towards return flow out of the south/southwest at 
some point late next week, although the models vary upon the timing 
and magnitude of the resultant moisture influx. Temperatures tick 
back up towards the mid 70s next weekend, but this warmth could be 
met with returning rain chances just beyond the end of the period. 
It remains too early to provide specifics regarding timing/amounts, 
but there is a signal next weekend for some relief from the 
persistent dryness that we've experienced as of late here in the 
Commonwealth. Before then, expect dryness to dominate the long term 
forecast period and generally pleasant weather for any 
planned outdoor fall activities. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025

High pressure will build into eastern Kentucky from the Great 
Lakes through the rest of the weekend while a slow moving low 
pressure system creeps up the eastern seaboard. Some high clouds 
from this latter feature will pass over eastern portions of the 
area during the morning hours. VFR conditions prevailed at 
issuance time and are expected to hold across the region during 
the next 24 hours, with one caveat - fog. Valley fog, locally
dense, will dissipate by 14Z. The TAF sites should remain VFR 
through the period, with a small possibility for some of that fog 
to lift into KSME, KSJS, or KSYM during the next hour or so. There
will be more possibilities of fog interaction late tonight, as
well. Light and variable winds will prevail until around 14Z, 
before the winds become northeast to north at less than 10 kts -
diminishing again to light and variable later this evening. 

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF

Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 12, 7:40 AM EDT

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Cranberry farmer hoping someone else will carry on the tradition he started decades ago

The owner of one eastern Ontario farm is retiring after three decades of harvesting cranberries. Lyle Slater of Upper Canada Cranberries offers a behind-the-scenes look at how the fruit is harvested.

Source: Cranberry farmer hoping someone else will carry on the tradition he started decades ago

-----------------------
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LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 8:47 PM CDT ...New UPDATE...

444 
FXUS64 KLIX 070147
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
847 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 838 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

 - Areas of dense fog possible overnight in areas that 
   received heavy rain in the last 24 hours.

 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue
   through the short term. 

 - Dry conditions expected beyond midweek. 

 - Hazardous marine conditions develop later this week. 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Have opted to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for a large portion of
the area overnight. It's not a slam dunk event, but with a large 
area of heavy rain last night, little in the way of clouds, and 
light winds, elements are in place for fog development. A 
significant amount of model guidance also pinging on low 
visibilities. Won't rule out the need to add additional
counties/parishes later in the evening. Will send updated ZFP
shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

A band of heavy rain/storms has developed along and just west of
the I55 corridor this morning. Low level wind shear increased just
enough with LLJ increasing beyond what guidance had suggested
going into the morning, which caused a few updrafts to rotate.
Additionally, training of this band of broken cells have caused
extremely heavy rainfall rates/totals leaving some roads
impassable in Livingston, St Helena, and Tangi Parishes at the
time of this discussion. The LLJ is breaking down and any severe
weather potential will be minimized going into the afternoon and
evening. CAMs also have this band of convection lifting northward
as the surface trough continues to lift north out of the forecast
area. Behind the trough, still isolated to scattered convection
will be possible through the evening. That said, if a band or two
of showers and storms develop over those areas that received the
heaviest rainfall this morning get additional even isolated to
scattered convection, additional hydro threat will continue. 

Going further into the short term into tonight and Tuesday, a
modest H5 ridge will spread westward into the region. This will
help set up a drying trend at least from an overall mean QPF
perspective, however, there still remains at least some QPF signal
across the region through the short term period. As the rain 
chances drop slightly toward the end of the short term, expect 
temperatures to rebound with some areas near the Atchafalaya 
reaching the 90 degree mark on Tuesday. As for the ongoing coastal
flood potential, as tides continue to lower and the stronger
easterly flow relaxes, think the overall threat will continue to
drop with each high tide cycle. The only other entity to mention
is overnight tonight with the wet grounds, some lower visibilities
will be possible for those areas. Will need to pay closer to this
potential as locally dense fog certainly isn't out of the realm of
possibility for the Tuesday commute. In fact, the latest SREF
guidance has most areas in the Florida Parishes with a high prob 
of 1SM fog around sunrise. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Going into the long term the overall temperatures remain somewhat
above average for early to mid October. Overall, moisture quality
will start to decrease, especially as a weak cold front moves
southward Wednesday and into Thursday before stalling across the
northern Gulf. Ahead of the front lower-end POPs will continue
through Wednesday before any rain chances shift offshore with the
surface feature late in the week. Perhaps lower Plaquemines will
keep rain chances, but that will be only landbased zones with any
type of rain potential. Behind the front dry northwesterly flow 
sets up aloft, which will keep the mid and upper level quite dry. 
With a broad scale trough settling over the eastern US, late week 
looks to be somewhat average or a bit cooler than what we're 
seeing early this week with some locations nearing or exceeding 90
degrees at times. As for the overnight, lows along and north of 
I10 may drop down to around 60 if not the upper 50s again as dry 
northwest flow and lower heights and humidity values all work to 
provide a very comfortable overnight temperature...at least away 
from warmer water bodies. (Frye) 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

All forecast terminals were VFR at issuance time. If there is
going to be precipitation at a terminal tonight, it will be at
KBTR, where there are currently isolated SHRA to the northwest of
the terminal area. Will carry VCSH there for a few hours. The main
question overnight will be the potential for fog development.
Considering the amount of rain that has fallen in the last 24
hours, the potential for light winds and lack of cloud cover,
tonight seems as good a night for development as any we've had
recently. Will carry IFR or lower conditions from about 10z to 14z
at KBTR/KMCB/KHDC/KASD. As things heat up in the morning, likely
to be a period of MVFR ceilings as cumulus field develops.
Greatest threat for TSRA tomorrow afternoon will be at KGPT. As
areal coverage is expected to be scattered at best, will use
PROB30 for now. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

High pressure will start to become more dominant over the waters 
early this week, allowing easterly to southeasterly winds to relax a 
bit to between 10 and 15 knots. Seas will also decrease to 2 to 4 
feet as the fetch relaxes. This brief respite in rougher conditions 
will end on Wednesday as another low in the Gulf develops and 
gradually pushes to the west. Northeasterly winds will increase back 
to near advisory levels in the offshore waters and seas will 
increase to 4 to 6 feet from Wednesday through Friday and perhaps 
beyond. As for tidal lakes and nearshore waters, cautionary 
headlines are likely, but cannot rule out the need for Small Craft 
Advisories even in a general weaker offshore flow regime. (Frye) 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  87  69  85 /  20  20  10  20 
BTR  71  89  71  89 /  20  10  10  10 
ASD  70  86  69  88 /  20  20  10  20 
MSY  75  88  74  90 /  10  20  10  20 
GPT  73  85  71  88 /  30  30  10  20 
PQL  70  85  69  88 /  30  50  10  20 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-
     039-046>048-056>058-071-076-079>086.

GM...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-
     077.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...RDF

Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 8:47 PM CDT ...New UPDATE...

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