ThreatWeb

JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 13, 6:35 PM EST

981 
FXUS63 KJKL 132335 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
635 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
 
- Another light, to possibly moderate, snowfall is on its way for
  this evening into early on Sunday, mainly north and east of a 
  Stanton to Jackson to Whitesburg line. 

- An arctic airmass moves into our region for late tonight through
  Sunday night with significantly below normal temperatures and
  bitterly cold wind chills in store.

- Near normal to above normal temperatures can then be expected 
  from Tuesday through the end of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025

Sent out a quick update for temperatures and to refresh wording to
remove "late afternoon" wording in the zone forecasts. The
forecast is overall on track. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 450 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025

Late this afternoon, an upper level low was centered over the
northern Great Lakes/Ontario with an upper trough extending south
into the MS Valley and eastern Conus. A shortwave trough moving
through the upper level trough was nearing the Lower OH valley. At
the surface, a frontal zone continues to move further into VA and
TN. Cold high pressure was centered in the Dakotas and extended 
through much of the central and northern Plains. The approach of 
the shortwave trough as well as some jet dynamics/jet streak north
of the OH River is leading to widespread snow mainly near and 
north of the OH River. A north to south temperature gradient is 
also in place with low clouds having persisted in the north.

This evening and tonight, the upper level low is expected to track
to near the Lake Huron vicinity while the shortwave trough will
track through the OH Valley this evening and working east of
eastern KY late tonight. The 500 mb trough axis will begin to
approach late tonight. Ongoing cold advection will increase in
earnest this evening with 850 mb temperatures expected to fall to
near or below 0C during the evening and then to roughly the -10C 
to -16C range around dawn on Sunday. Along with the passing
shortwave and some favorable jet dynamics/right entrance region in
the north this evening, the low level flow between the front to
the south and east and the cold high pressure over the Central
Conus will become increasingly upslope/northwest and low level
lapse rates will steepen. These factors should ultimately
determine QPF and ultimately amounts as moisture increases as the
shortwave nears and crosses the area. Low level moisture into and
above the DGZ should linger behind the shortwave. 850 mb
temperatures will cool to -16 to -20C late Sunday morning to early
Sunday afternoon as the mid level trough axis passes. Mid level
height rises follow. However, the lingering low level moisture, 
upslope northwest flow, and continued cold advection should 
support some isolated to scattered flurries at times during much
of the day on Sunday. The low level moisture will become 
increasingly shallower Sunday evening and Sunday night and this
combined with warm advection should lead to some of the low clouds
decreasing though some could remain through the night as the sfc 
high builds from the MS Valley into the Lower OH Valley and 
settles across eastern KY. Lows could near the 0 degree mark
possibly to more of an areal extent than currently forecast 
especially where there is any clearing and snowcover.

A period of snow is expected to gradually develop early this 
evening in the north, with the precipitation more spotty and 
likely mixed initially with rain in the southwest as the area of 
precipitation gradually spreads south this evening into the 
overnight hours. The snow should taper to snow showers from 
northwest to southeast late tonight to early on Sunday. By late 
evening into the overnight, the snow should also be more 
convective in nature through the night and again, precipitation 
should be more spotty in the southwest where the duration of omega
and deeper moisture will be shortest. 

The convective allowing models, especially the HRRR have generally
been more pessimistic with snowfall for this evening into Sunday
morning though the most recent 20Z run is a bit higher than
several previous run. The recent RAP runs and NAMNEST have 
generally a bit higher in the advisory area as are the global 
models including the ECMWF AI. This leads to uncertainty in 
snowfall totals. However, some snow expected to fall in the 
advisory area combined with falling temperatures travel impacts 
are anticipated even if totals end up only marginal for advisory 
criteria on the southern and western edge of the advisory. 

Wind chills late tonight into Sunday morning are forecast to near
and in some spots, mainly the westernmost tier of counties, reach
the lower end of the Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Wind chills
and or air temperatures should again near 0 degrees Sunday night.
For simplicity and better agreement with surrounding WFOs opted 
to add Harlan County to the Cold Weather Advisory and also extend 
the Advisory through Sunday night. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025

Monday morning, surface high pressure will be situated right over 
Eastern Kentucky, which will bring mostly clear skies and light 
southerly winds to the region. It will also feel like a frozen 
tundra, as some of the coldest air of the season will remain 
entrenched across the area from the previous arctic air mass that 
moved through the Commonwealth over the weekend. Temperatures and 
wind chills will be in the single digits early Monday morning. With 
high pressure continuing to build across Kentucky, rising heights 
will lead to temperatures warming into the low 30s around and north 
of the Mountain Parkway, and mid to upper 30s along and south of the 
Hal-Rodgers/KY-80 Highway. 

Dry conditions should last through the better part of Wednesday, as 
Eastern Kentucky remains in somewhat zonal flow through then. There 
is some moisture that may creep into the Lower Mississippi Valley 
Wednesday, morning, but at current POP chances for the southwestern 
most counties remain just under 15%. North of the area, an upper 
level low will be passing through the Upper Great Lakes, which pack 
isobars through that area. Breezy conditions may translate as far 
south as Eastern Kentucky. At current, gusts up to 20 mph look 
possible, but conditions should otherwise remain fairly uneventful. 

POP chances increase heading into Wednesday evening and Thursday, as 
and another upper level trough begins to deepen over South-Central 
Canada. Showers will develop out ahead of the systems warm front 
early Thursday morning. While these showers are ongoing, a surface 
cold front will be further west, somewhere through the Upper and Mid-
Mississippi valley. This trough looks to progress east and looks to 
become somewhat negatively tilted by Thursday afternoon and evening. 
There may be a chance for thunderstorms, however current chances 
remain under 15%, so mention of thunderstorms have been left out of 
the forecast at this time. Winds are expected to be out of the south 
to southwest and could gust as high as 25-30 mph. By Thursday, 
temperatures across the region could be in the upper 50s, and near 
60 in some places. Once the cold front moves through the area Winds 
become westerly and eventually light an variable later Friday. 
Temperatures may be 10-15 degrees cooler than Thursday, with high 
temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s. There are some signals of 
another system approaching for next weekend, which would likely be 
rain, but model spread is to great at this point to nail down any 
specifics. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025

Arctic cold front continues to move southeast across the
terminals, and as of 23z is on the cusp of reaching KJKL and KSJS,
and will shortly thereafter reach KSME and KLOZ by ~02z. Low 
clouds to low-MVFR cigs or lower can be expected immediately after
frontal passage, with snow producing MVFR/IFR viz still north of
KSYM but expected to move southeast across the area between now
and 12z. KSYM and KSJS should see the longest duration of snow and
KSME and KLOZ the shortest duration. Skies will generally clear
gradually after 12z, likely first at KSME and KLOZ, but then
gradually reaching all terminals by the end of the TAF period,
with KJKL and KSJS seeing clouds and possible flurries lingering
the longest. 

Generally, light and variable winds are expected initially before
winds become northwest at 5 to 10 KT by the 03Z to 06Z timeframe
as the arctic front passes, with potential gusts to near 20 KT in
the first several hours tonight after frontal passage. 

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for KYZ044-
050>052-059-060-104.

Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for 
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106-108-111.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for KYZ106>110-112-
113-115-118>120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC

Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 13, 6:35 PM EST

---------------
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Ottawa-Gatineau companies show off their defence tech

A tour organized by Invest Ottawa gave local companies a chance to show off some of the products they're developing for defence, safety and security.

Source: Ottawa-Gatineau companies show off their defence tech

-----------------------
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LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 1, 12:56 PM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

600 
FXUS64 KLIX 011856
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1256 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1158 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
 
 - A Light to moderate rain will spread across the area today and
   continue through tonight. Most places are forecast to see
   between 0.5 and 1.0 inch of rain. Isolated thunderstorms could
   result in locally higher amounts in the 1-2 inch range.

 - Much colder air will move into the region following this
   system, with the coldest temperatures forecast Wednesday
   morning. Another light freeze is forecast along/north of the
   I-10/12, with generally 3-7 hours of subfreezing temperatures
   forecast.
 
 - Another storm system will bring widespread rain and embedded
   thunderstorms to the area Thursday through Friday night. There
   will be at least a low-end threat of heavy rain with this 
   system and two-day rainfall totals are currently forecast in 
   the 2-3 inch range. Please check the forecast for updates in 
   the coming days as forecast rainfall totals and associated 
   flood threats will continue to be refined.
   

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Light to moderate rain and a few embedded thunderstorms is
beginning to spread into northwestern portions of the area, and
will continue to spread across the remainder of the area as the
afternoon and evening progress. This is in response to an
approaching upper level trough and developing surface low over the
northern Gulf.

The surface low is forecast to remain south of local land areas,
limiting the threat of severe weather as any thunderstorms will
likely not be surface-based. Rainfall totals through tonight are
generally forecast in the 0.5-1.5" range. However, a few 
thunderstorms could result in locally higher amounts. Given how
dry the local area has been, not overly concerned about the threat
of flash flooding. However, if a couple thunderstorms move over
any given area in relatively short succession there is at least a
low-end threat of heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding.
This will be highly dependent on rainfall rates.

The low should be east of the local area by about midnight tonight
as the upper level trough axis approaches. In the wake of this
system, colder high pressure will once again move into the area
beginning Tuesday, with afternoon highs struggling to reach the
mid-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Tuesday night will be the coldest night as the axis of the surface
high pressure moves over the area. The combination of clear skies
and light to calm winds will allow for efficient radiative
cooling and temperatures will quickly drop after sunset. The 
current forecast calls for at least a couple hours of freezing 
temperatures for most places along/north of the I-10/12 corridor 
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Most of these areas 
have already experienced two freezes this season, but we'll need 
to take a look to see if any of the more western areas around 
Baton Rouge require freeze headlines.

Wednesday itself will be a day of transition as the surface high
shifts eastward and winds return to and easterly and then
southeasterly direction by Wednesday night. The onshore winds will
gradually bring moisture back into the area, ahead of yet another
storm system.

This second storm system will begin to affect the area Thursday
with a similar setup to what we're seeing today. A deformation
zone will set up stretching from a cutoff low near Baja across the
Gulf coast and into the middle eastern seaboard as embedded and
positively tilted shortwave disturbances move through the overall
longwave trough dominating the CONUS. The local area will remain
in this favorable area for rain and isolated to scattered embedded
thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday. 

The threat of severe weather currently appears limited. There 
could be a brief window for stronger storms Friday during the day,
but it will depend greatly on the position of the surface low and
associated warm front. Currently the warm front does not look like
it will move very far inland, which will keep most thunderstorms
elevated. However, if the low and warm front move farther north,
then the thunderstorm threat could increase as storms become more
surface-based. 

Regardless of the severe weather threat, this system looks like it
will bring continued much-needed rain to the area. Two-day totals
are currently forecast in the 2-3.5 inch range. However, any 
thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavier rain.
Model forecast soundings indicate that precipitable water will
have rebounded to the 1.5-1.75 inch range by Thursday morning,
which is above the 90th percentile and approaching the daily
maximum observed value. This means any thunderstorms will be
capable of producing efficient rainfall. Wherever these
thunderstorms move, the higher rainfall rates could lead to
ponding and at least a low-end threat of flash flooding. The
specific locations that receive the heaviest rain will depend on
where these thunderstorms move and for the time being, a broad
Marginal risk appears warranted to cover the heavy rain/flash
flood threat Thursday into Friday.

Going into the weekend, there is uncertainty in whether the area
will dry out or remain in an area of scattered showers and
isolated storms as continued fast-moving disturbances move through
the overall troughy pattern in the upper levels. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

An approaching low pressure system will bring widespread showers
and a few embedded thunderstorms to the area through tonight.
Ample low level moisture will result in generally IFR conditions
at most terminals through Tuesday morning before conditions begin
to improve as dry high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A Gulf low will approach the area later today, with gradient 
winds of 15-20 knots and widespread rain with a few embedded 
thunderstorms. An exercise caution headline remains in effect 
through this evening. In the wake of the low, winds will become 
north-northwesterly and will strengthen into the 20-25kt range, with 
seas responding accordingly. A small craft advisory remains in 
effect from late tonight through mid afternoon Tuesday. Winds and 
seas will ease late Tuesday through Wednesday as high pressure moves 
across the area. Another storm system will begin to affect the area 
Thursday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms 
through Friday night. Additional headlines may be necessary during 
this time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  37  48  29  57 / 100   0   0   0 
BTR  39  52  32  61 / 100   0   0   0 
ASD  43  55  30  61 /  90  10   0   0 
MSY  47  56  41  64 /  90   0   0   0 
GPT  46  57  34  59 /  90  10   0   0 
PQL  45  58  29  60 /  80  20   0   0 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ530-532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday 
     for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ532-534-536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday 
     for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM

Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 1, 12:56 PM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

---------------
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PBZ cancels Winter Storm Warning for Allegheny, Beaver, Greene, Washington [PA] and Brooke, Hancock, Marshall, Ohio, Wetzel [WV]

147 
WWUS41 KPBZ 141413
WSWPBZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
913 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

PAZ020-021-029-031-WVZ001>004-012-141515-
/O.CAN.KPBZ.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-251214T1800Z/
Beaver-Allegheny-Washington-Greene-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-
Wetzel-
Including the cities of Waynesburg, Wheeling, Follansbee, Weirton,
Pittsburgh Metro Area, Canonsburg, Wellsburg, Ambridge, Beaver Falls,
Monaca, Washington, Aliquippa, Moundsville, and New Martinsville
913 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

$$

PAZ007-008-141800-
/O.CON.KPBZ.LE.W.0004.000000T0000Z-251215T1200Z/
Mercer-Venango-
Including the cities of Hermitage, Grove City, Oil City, Sharon, and
Franklin
913 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations
  between 1 and 3 inches.

* WHERE...Mercer and Venango Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

PAZ073-075-077-WVZ021-509-141800-
/O.CON.KPBZ.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-251214T1800Z/
Westmoreland-Fayette-Indiana-Marion-Monongalia-
Including the cities of Indiana, Fairmont, Murrysville, New
Kensington, Latrobe, Morgantown, Monessen, Greensburg, Uniontown, and
Lower Burrell
913 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 1 to 2 inches.

* WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Fayette, Indiana, and Westmoreland
  Counties. In West Virginia, Marion and Monongalia Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please report snow or ice accumulations by calling 412-262-1988,
posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using X
@NWSPittsburgh.

&&

$$

PAZ074-076-078-WVZ510>514-141800-
/O.CON.KPBZ.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-251214T1800Z/
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Indiana-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and
Northwestern Preston-Preston-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-
Eastern Tucker-
Including the cities of Ohiopyle, Hazelton, Thomas, Coopers Rock,
Canaan Valley, Champion, Donegal, Ligonier, Bruceton Mills, Terra
Alta, Rowlesburg, Hendricks, Armagh, Parsons, Saint George, Davis,
and Kingwood
913 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 1 to 2 inches.
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and western Pennsylvania and northern
  West Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely
  become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons are urged to stay indoors until conditions improve. If you
must go outside, dress in layers. Several layers of clothes will keep
you warmer than a single heavy coat. Cover exposed skin to reduce
your risk of frostbite or hypothermia. Gloves, a scarf, and a hat
will keep you from losing your body heat.

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is
winterized and in good working order.

Please report snow or ice accumulations by calling 412-262-1988,
posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using X
@NWSPittsburgh.

&&

$$

OHZ041-PAZ013-014-022-141800-
/O.CON.KPBZ.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-251214T1800Z/
Columbiana-Lawrence-Butler-Armstrong-
Including the cities of Kittanning, Salem, East Liverpool, Ellwood
City, Ford City, Butler, New Castle, and Columbiana
913 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations 1 to 2 inches.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Columbiana County. In Pennsylvania, Lawrence,
  Armstrong, and Butler Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please report snow or ice accumulations by calling 412-262-1988,
posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using X
@NWSPittsburgh.

&&

$$

PAZ009-015-016-141800-
/O.CON.KPBZ.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-251215T1200Z/
Forest-Clarion-Jefferson PA-
Including the cities of Punxsutawney, Brookville, Clarion, and
Tionesta
913 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations up to two inches.

* WHERE...Forest, Jefferson PA, and Clarion Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please report snow or ice accumulations by calling 412-262-1988,
posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using X
@NWSPittsburgh.

&&

$$

Shallenberger

Source: PBZ cancels Winter Storm Warning for Allegheny, Beaver, Greene, Washington [PA] and Brooke, Hancock, Marshall, Ohio, Wetzel [WV]

---------------
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IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 11, 9:05 PM EST

557 
FXUS63 KIWX 120205
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
905 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overnight, there is a slight chance (20%) of snow across far 
  southern portions of the forecast area, including White and 
  Cass counties in Indiana.
 
- Periods of light system snow and lake effect snow Friday 
  night through Sunday night. 

- Very cold temperatures are expected this weekend. There is at
  least a 50 percent probability of wind chills at or below -20
  degrees F on Sunday morning over much of the area. 

- Warmer weather returns next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Have updated the forecast this evening to depict less than 1/2 inch 
of snow across far southern counties and have limited POPs to only a 
slight chance (20%).

Clipper system moving from central IL through south-central IN this 
evening is on track to overall miss our forecast area. Water vapor 
imagery depicts a steady northwest to southeast track while high 
resolution guidance shows the best upper-level forcing confined to 
southern IL and eastern MO. Local dew point depressions as great as 
nine degrees beneath weak mosaic radar returns bolster confidence 
that snowfall will pass to our south. There is a small area of 
expanding radar returns across the greater Davenport, IA, area where 
dew point depressions are much smaller. However, given thick cloud 
cover, a quick drop in our temperature profiles into the teens this 
early in the night is not expected, nor is there enough forcing to 
saturate or wet-bulb the column. Time-height cross sections depict a 
deep, mid-level dry layer as well. All of these ingredients (or lack 
thereof) necessitated this forecast update. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

No major changes to the inherited forecast this afternoon. A few 
light snow showers persist across the CWA w/ some local enhancements 
noted in and around the Fort Wayne metro area likely courtesy of 
added moisture/condensation nuclei induced by steam from nearby
industrial facilities. In general, most activity has been 
limited to flurries or a quick burst of light to moderate snow 
with no notable impacts reported. Still anticipating the quick 
passage of another clipper system tonight, with frontogenetic 
forcing and isentropic ascent very briefly allowing snow to 
spread into our far southwestern zones. Trends in high-res 
models have continued to signal a southward shift in the band of
accumulating snowfall w/ HREF members suggesting around a 
60-70% probability of at least one half inch of snow. The HRRR 
has consistently trended south over the past several runs w/ the
18z iteration keeping any notable accumulation entirely south 
of the CWA. Did consider an SPS for a quick 1-2 inch snowfall, 
but given the forecast trends decided to hold off on this 
messaging for now.

Quiet weather on Friday will give way to a more active weekend, but 
winter impacts should still be relatively marginal for most. First 
short wave disturbance passes Friday night into Saturday morning 
with lake enhanced snow developing in westerly flow. Some snow 
showers may spread into the US-6 corridor as well, but the best 
chance for any accumulation would likely be found across 
Berrien/Cass counties in MI. Even so, current ensemble suites 
suggest likely accumulations in the 1-3 inch range with lesser 
chances of advisory level amounts. The second and more vigorous 
short wave arrives Saturday night w/ the best forcing focused mainly 
south of US-30. The parade of clipper systems naturally results in a 
low predictability storm track with each subsequent wave being 
influenced by the previous, so considerable uncertainty still 
exists with regard to the overall degree of winter travel 
impacts from this system. Nonetheless, some additional 
accumulation is probable. One thing is for certain, much colder 
air will filter in behind this system. 75th percentile GEFS H85 
temperatures plunge to -20 deg C by 12z Sunday, strongly 
suggesting potential for temperatures in the single digits (both
above and below zero) with wind chills possibly approaching 
Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Will need to monitor for a 
potential lake response Saturday night into Sunday. 

A pattern shift is still expected beyond Monday of next week w/ 
highs climbing above freezing and periods of rain expected through 
mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Isolated instances of VFR ceilings amid a sea of MVFR ceilings
decreases forecast confidence this evening. The synoptic 
environment favors MVFR ceilings overall, so I do anticipate 
that to be the case for most of the night before a period of VFR
can be realized near or after daybreak Friday when the low-
level inversion eases. A clipper system is tracking through 
central IL and central IN. I have removed any SN mention from 
KFWA as the track will be well south of the terminal. 

The next clipper system approaches late in this period, bringing
ceilings back down to MVFR especially at KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Brown
DISCUSSION...Hammer
AVIATION...Brown

Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 11, 9:05 PM EST

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