ThreatWeb

JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 4:32 AM EST

692 
FXUS63 KJKL 040932
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
432 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
 
- Warmer-than-average conditions continue today ahead of a cold
  front that passes through Eastern Kentucky this evening and
  tonight. 

- This cold front will bring beneficial rainfall and perhaps a few
  rumbles of thunder to the area today and into tonight.
 
- A cooling trend takes place headed into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 415 AM EST WED NOV 4 2026

Early this morning, an upper level low was centered in the Upper MS 
Valley, with a 500 mb trough south over the Central Conus. A lead
shortwave was moving through sections of the Lower OH Valley to 
TN Valley and sections of the southeast. Upper ridging was 
centered along the southeast U.S. coast. At the surface, high 
pressure was centered along the eastern seaboard, while a sfc low
was centered in the upper MS Valley with an associated cold front
extending south in the MS Valley vicinity. Winds in the lowest 
levels, roughly 925 mb and below are southeasterly between these 
systems, with winds more southerly to southwest from the 850 mb 
level and higher in elevation. A few spotty light showers or 
sprinkles have occurred over portions of eastern KY during the 
past couple of hours, with more substantial showers upstream over
central and western KY down into western and middle TN and points
south. Winds have gusted as high as the 26 to 36 mph range at the
higher elevation KY Mesonet station locations in Pike County
(2770') and Harlan County (4000') since midnight, with gusts 
generally no more than 20 mph elsewhere. A few valley locations 
remain decoupled as of 4 AM EST, with mid to upper 50s
temperatures, though most locations have been more mixy or mixed 
out. PW is currently analyzed in the 1.1 inch or less to 1.6 inch
range from far southeast to southwest, with more substantial 
values to the southeast and west.

Today and tonight, the upper level low should track into the western 
to northern Great Lakes and become an open wave and merge with a 
trough to the north in Canada. At the same time, the lead shortwave
trough should advance across the Lower OH Valley today and into 
the middle OH Valley and east of eastern KY later tonight. The sfc
low should trek to the northern Great Lakes/Lake Superior area 
tonight, while the trailing cold front moves gradually east 
across the Commonwealth, likely clearing far eastern KY late 
tonight. As the shortwave trough and cold front approach, moisture
across the region will increase with PW per the 00Z REFS reaching
around 1.1 inches near the WV border to about 1.5 inches 
southwest (88th to 97th percentile) around dawn on Wednesday, 
before peaking in the 1.4 to 1.6 inch range (96th to 99th 
percentile) this afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough and cold 
front. 

Widespread rainfall is expected from rounds of showers with this 
system that should generally be beneficial following recent dry 
weather since mid October. These will arrive in the west first, 
toward dawn or shortly thereafter and then gradually spread east 
and northeast. Convection should wind down from west to east later
this evening and into the overnight hours. Some thunderstorms are
also possible but instability will be limited with MUCAPE peaking
this afternoon on the order of 200 to 500 J/kg per the RAP. Given
the rather substantial forecast PW values, any training convection
could produce swaths of locally higher amounts. Uncertainty 
remains with storm total QPF due to the nature of the convection.
NBM based QPF ranges from around 0.25 inches downwind of the VA 
border to as much as 0.8 to 1.1 inches in the west and southwest. 
00Z REFS mean QPF is around 0.4 inches downwind of VA border 
counties (due to downsloping effects at least initially) to around
0.8 in sections of the west and northwest. Higher end event total
rainfall, 00Z REFS 95th percentile values are generally an inch 
or more with around 2 inches on the high end in the JKL CWA. Max 
amounts are in the 2 to 3 inch range. HRRR runs at times have also
have also had some swaths of higher amounts into the 2 to 3 inch 
range for totals. The 06Z HRRR has a bit lighter swaths in or near
the JKL CWA of just under 2 inches. As for FFG values, they are 
generally in the 1.5 to 2.25 inch range for 1 hour, with a few 
areas over 2.5 inches in the southwest. 3 hour FFG is generally in
the 1.8 to to 2.5 inch range with some higher values in the 
southwest, while FFG values in the 6 hour range were mainly in the
2.4 to nearly 4 inches. Based on the 00Z REFS, max 1 hour 
rainfall was in the 1.1 to 1.25 inch range while max 6 hour 
rainfall was in the 2 to 2.5 inch range. Even if the max values 
materialized over the shorter time steps, these would generally 
fall below FFG guidance values. Rainfall rates could be sufficient
for some ponding of water on roadways, particularly as leaves 
fall and could result in some clogging of ditches and culverts in 
some areas. WPC has placed all but the far southeast in a Marginal
ERO for Day 1. 

Another concern will be as the rain tapers off from west to east and 
mid and high clouds diminish, will be the development of either fog 
or low stratus. The higher resolution models generally have some 
saturation below 850 mb to end the period. For now have continued 
patchy valley fog to areas of valley fog in the grids, with lower
than average confidences if this is more of stratus event or a 
bit of a mix of valley fog and stratus pending geographic
location.

On Thursday, eastern KY should remain in southwest flow aloft with 
the 500mb trough axis progged to extend from James Bay into the 
Great Lakes to portions of the Plains. The column should continue to 
dry on Thursday, with PW falling from around 0.9 inches east to 0.6 
inches west at dawn per the 00Z REFS to roughly 0.5 to 0.65 inches 
or the 50th to 60th percentile by early Thursday evening. Weak sfc 
high pressure should build in behind the front into the Lower OH and 
TN Valleys on Thursday. A trend of drier weather with decreasing 
clouds by the afternoon is expected. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM EST WED NOV 4 2026

Another disturbance will trek from the Mid-Mississippi Valley and 
move towards the OH/TN valleys to begin the long term period. At the 
same time, a longwave trough over the Great Lakes region will 
meander southward towards the Ohio River. This trough will cross the 
area to end the week and bring a shot of colder, drier air as we 
head into the weekend. Following highs in the 60s to near 70 on 
Friday, temperatures will drop into the 50s for highs Saturday and 
into the 30s for lows particularly in valleys on Sunday morning. 
Monday morning appears to be the coldest, with lows well into the 
30s for most locations. Lingering cloud cover may impact how cold 
the sheltered valleys get, but it is not out of the question that 
some of the more sheltered valley locations may see lows in the 20s 
Monday morning. Due to the cold morning temperatures, frost appears 
likely.

At this point, a fairly quiet synoptic pattern is currently 
anticipated from early to the middle portion of next week, with 
surface high pressure building across the Ohio Valley. Model 
guidance has some spread in terms of the positioning and strength of 
troughing across the southeast CONUS early next week. The 00Z ECMWF 
and the 0Z EMCWF ensemble mean have ridging in the southeast to 
begin the week. The 0Z GFS and 0Z GFS ensemble mean keep a trough in 
the southeast at that time. Both scenarios would result in very 
minimal or no chances for rain from early to the middle of next 
week. The consensus is for temperatures to hovering near normal, 
with daytime highs in the 60s and nighttime lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST WED NOV 4 2026

VFR generally prevailed across the area at issuance time and VFR
should generally prevail through the first 6 to 9 hours of the
period though . Atmospheric moisture increases ahead of an 
approaching low pressure system, with clouds thickening and 
lowering. Ceilings gradually lower from west to east toward or 
into the MVFR range between 14Z and around 23Z. Showers may affect
western portions of the area as early as 09Z and 12Z, with areas 
of showers and MVFR or perhaps briefly lower reductions spreading 
from west to east between about 12Z and 18Z, with strengthening 
southerly winds in this same time frame. Winds will strengthen 
aloft first, so some marginal LLWS is possible initially. Surface 
winds should be the lightest at northeastern terminals like KJKL 
tonight, so confidence in LLWS remains the greatest there. Once 
the stronger winds start to mix down after around 15Z, any LLWS 
should give way to surface wind gusts of 15-25KT. Additional 
showers are anticipated during the last 12 hours of the period as 
well along and in advance of the cold front, with MVFR or lower 
reductions. Winds become southwest to west at 10KT or less behind 
the boundary late. Overall, expect flight conditions to 
deteriorate beyond the first 6 to 9 hours of the period as the
storm system approaches and moves into eastern KY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HORTON/JP
AVIATION...JKL

Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 4:32 AM EST

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Police cracking down on dangerous driving in south Ottawa

Ottawa police say they are topping up their usual traffic patrols in the city's south end in the coming months as a response to bad, dangerous driving and public complaints about it.

Source: Police cracking down on dangerous driving in south Ottawa

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LIX continues Coastal Flood Advisory valid at Nov 2, 1:00 AM CST for Eastern Orleans, Lower St. Bernard, Southeast St. Tammany [LA] and Southern Hancock [MS] till Nov 2, 9:00 AM CST

242 
WHUS44 KLIX 020422
CFWLIX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1022 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

LAZ070-076-078-MSZ086-021500-
/O.CON.KLIX.CF.Y.0016.261102T0700Z-261102T1500Z/
Lower St. Bernard-Southeast St. Tammany-Eastern Orleans-
Southern Hancock-
1022 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Minor coastal flooding expected.

* WHERE...In Louisiana, Lower St. Bernard, Southeast St. Tammany 
  and Eastern Orleans Parishes. In Mississippi, Southern Hancock 
  County.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only 
  isolated road closures expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

$$

Source: LIX continues Coastal Flood Advisory valid at Nov 2, 1:00 AM CST for Eastern Orleans, Lower St. Bernard, Southeast St. Tammany [LA] and Southern Hancock [MS] till Nov 2, 9:00 AM CST

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PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 6:33 AM EST

613 
FXUS61 KPBZ 041133
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
633 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to timing of rain were made today and tonight,
with minor adjustments to the weekend forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm today, then rain returns this afternoon and evening 
into early Thursday. 

2) Cooler Friday into the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... 
A closed low will continue to drift across the Upper Midwest
today. Southerly flow ahead of this trough, and mixing, should
result in high temperatures around 15 to 25 degrees above
average, with the warmest readings across PA and nrn WV. Some
sites could approach record highs before clouds thicken through
the day ahead of an approaching shortwave. This shortwave (and
associated cold front,) ahead of the main upper low, will 
approach the region in SW flow aloft this afternoon, crossing
the region this evening into early Thursday. Moisture and 
ascent with the wave, assisted by a jet aloft, should result in 
rain overspreading the region from W-E this afternoon through 
this evening. A low level jet and minimal elevated instability 
could also result in an isolated thunderstorm. 

Rainfall amounts are expected to range from 0.25 to 0.5 inches
for most areas. Low end QPF (10th percentile) is around 0.10,
with high end amounts (90th percentile) around 0.8 inches. 

The shortwave and surface front should exit the region Thursday
morning, with decreasing rain chances. Temperatures will be
cooler than recent days, though still around 10 degrees above
average.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Model ensembles indicate the upper low will open into a trough
Thursday, as it tracks across the Great Lakes region. Another
deepening upper low is then progged to drop SE through the
trough, reaching the Great Lakes region again on Friday. This 
low should continue eastward across the Upper Ohio Valley region
through Saturday. This should spread areas of rain across the 
region again later Friday into Saturday. 850 mb temperatures are
also progged to drop to between 0 and -2 deg C during this time
according to the latest ensembles. This should bring temperature
back down to near seasonable levels over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid and upper clouds will continue to increase this morning ahead
of an approaching shortwave trough and surface cold front. The 
front should slowly cross the region between late evening and
Thursday morning. Rain will overspread the region this afternoon
and evening ahead of the front, with ceilings and visibilities
falling into the MVFR category from west to east. Rain and 
MVFR/patchy IFR restrictions are likely to continue overnight 
with the crossing front, with MVFR ceilings hanging on even as
the rain starts to end towards sunrise.

Outlook... 
Restrictions should continue into early Thursday as the front
completes its passage. After some improvement later Thursday
into Friday, restriction and rain potential returns later
Friday through Saturday with a crossing upper trough. Cold NW
flow behind the trough could maintain ceiling restrictions into
Sunday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CL/WM

Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 6:33 AM EST

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IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 7:17 PM EST

980 
FXUS63 KIWX 040017
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
717 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sporadic wind gusts to 25 to 30 mph are possible later this
  evening into the early overnight hours. Breezy conditions will
  continue on Wednesday.

- Rain showers are expected to shift from west to east tonight
  into Wednesday.

- Periods of lake enhanced rain showers are expected into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Gusty conditions this afternoon with winds 25-35 mph.

Warm air advection driven by southerly flow has led to quite the 
warm day across the Michiana region and northwestern Ohio this 
afternoon with highs already in the low to mid 70s. Mostly clear 
skies combined with ample mixing may allow highs today to challenge 
the daily record of 76F. Regardless, it will feel more like late 
summer than November across the area. Increased mixing depth around 
peak heating this afternoon will also tap into an approaching LLJ 
with gusts as high as 35 mph, highest across Northwest Indiana into 
Southwest Michigan.

- Breezy conditions and rain showers expected Tuesday Night into 
Wednesday

Water vapor imagery shows a robust trough across the middle 
Mississippi Valley at present forecast to move into the region 
tonight into Wednesday. The surface reflection of this will be in 
the form of a cold front crossing the area during the day, with 
widespread showers out ahead of it. Expect rain much of the day 
Wednesday given the slow moving nature of the front as the surface 
low becomes vertically aligned with the parent trough. A dry slot 
moving in later Wednesday ends the rain showers, with northwest Ohio 
last to dry out in the evening. REFS probabilistic guidance favors 
less than 1/4" for most, with rainfall as high as 0.5" across our 
southeast Indiana counties into NW Ohio.

- Cooler with lake driven rain showers into the weekend

More robust cold air arrives with persistent troughing Friday into 
the weekend behind a cold frontal boundary. 850 mb temps fall to 
near zero, with lake temps still in the mid teens. This will be 
sufficient instability wise to generate lake effect rain showers 
Thursday Night into Friday. The trough and coldest mid-level air 
will depart to the east Saturday with northwest flow into early next 
week. How much if any precipitation we receive if any will depend on 
shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow as well as whether a 
ridge across the central CONUS drives flow be more zonal for a 
period early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 703 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions will begin this forecast but should deteriorate
to MVFR late tonight into Wednesday. Strong low level flow will
continue this evening, and in particularly late evening into 
the overnight hours as pre-frontal low level jet axis across 
Illinois shifts east. This should produce a period of LLWS 
conditions being met at both KSBN/KFWA later this evening into 
portions of the overnight. A vort lobe progressing through base 
of larger scale upper trough should lift northeast to the 
western Great Lakes overnight into Wednesday AM with a period of
some rain showers. A lull in these rain showers is possible for
a time Wed AM before additional scattered shower potential in 
closer vicinity to the cold front from west to east during the 
day. The current expectation is that axis of better pre-frontal 
pooled moisture could result in MVFR cigs lifting north in the 
09Z-12Z timeframe at KSBN and more likely later in the morning 
at KFWA. Breezy conditions are expected to persist into 
Wednesday afternoon with onset of low level cold advection. 
Mixed layer depths should remain shallow through this valid 
period, but even shallow mixing should support wind gusts into 
the 20 to 25 knot range.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...Marsili

Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 7:17 PM EST

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