ThreatWeb

IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 12:35 AM EDT

973 
FXUS63 KIND 100435
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1235 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog possible late tonight.

- Drier weather expected on Thursday.

- Generally very warm/humid through this weekend greatest rain/ with 
best chance for storms late Saturday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Convection has been slow to diminish in northern and eastern zones, 
so have kept isolated shower/thunderstorm wording for the next 2 
hrs in these areas with precip chances dropped elsewhere. For the 
rest of the night, as temperatures fall combined with light winds 
and clear skies patchy fog is expected to develop after midnight. 
Areas of fog are expected in valleys, especially in southern areas
of Central Indiana. The rest of the forecast temps, winds and sky
cover remain in good shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a weak, poorly defined 
frontal boundary across Central Indiana. Radar shows an area of 
showers and isolated thunderstorms over SE Indiana, associated with 
the passing of an upper trough. Meanwhile convective temperatures 
are being touched allowing a few isolated showers to develop in NW 
Central Indiana. All of these echos were continuing a slow eastward 
progression. Water Vapor showed a plume of moisture streaming across 
the SE 1/2 of Indiana, and subsidence across the northwest parts of 
Central Indiana, marking the relative position of the upper trough 
progressing across the area. Winds remained light and variable 
across the forecast area due to the weak and poorly defined pressure 
gradient across the area. Dew point temperatures remained quite high 
in the middle 60s to around 70.

Late this afternoon, diurnal heating may still allow a few isolated 
pop-up showers or storms across Central Indiana in the wake of the 
trough. HRRR continues to depict this, but most locations will 
remain dry. Some low chance pops will be needed through the 
afternoon.

Tonight...

The trough axis will continue to depart to the east, allowing 
subsidence to build across Indiana. This will result in clearing 
skies through the evening and into the overnight hours. Forecast 
soundings overnight show a dry column and winds are expected to 
become light to calm. This may result in some patchy/areas of fog 
toward daybreak as dew point depressions will become small. Given 
our current dew points, lows are expected to fall to the middle and 
upper 60s.

Thursday -

Models suggest that upper ridging in place over the northern plains 
and upper midwest will continue build slowly east, but this will 
still result in lee side subsidence and NW flow across Indiana. 
Meanwhile at the surface, weak but broad high pressure stretching 
from the Great Lakes across Indiana to Arkansas will be in place. 
Forecast soundings show a dry column through the day with very dry 
mid and upper levels. However, some hint of lower level CU 
development are suggested as convective temperatures are reached. 
Thus after a foggy start, skies should become partly cloudy with 
warm temperatures by afternoon. Look for highs in the middle to 
upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Overall typical midsummer weather is expected through the long term 
as generally warm and humid conditions with mostly scattered, 
diurnally-driven convection expected for much of the period.

Aloft, troughing with embedded short waves will bring chances for 
rain for the end of the week and into the weekend. Friday's chances 
are mainly for the afternoon while better forcing later in the day 
Saturday bring best chances for precip in the long term. Above 
normal PWATs are expected for late Saturday, so could see some 
localized flooding potential within heavy showers or should storms 
pass over the same area numerous times. Also can't rule out a few 
stronger storms producing higher wind gusts; otherwise, 
widespread severe weather is not expected at this time. 

Global models have been slowing the exit of the rain as a boundary 
looks to linger over the region, so could see storms continue 
through the day Sunday. High pressure still looks to bring a brief 
break in precipitation early next week before another upper wave 
returns midweek, bringing additional storms and continued warmth. 

Aside from the near normal mid 80s high temps early next week, 
slightly above normal highs are expected, upper 80s to near 90, 
while overnight lows will be in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Impacts:

- Brief IFR/LIFR conditions in fog likely towards sunrise Thursday, 
especially in low lying areas near KBMG, KLAF and KHUF

Discussion:  

Isolated convection and most clouds have largely diminished early 
this morning...leaving mainly clear skies with near calm winds. With 
abundant moisture still present in the near surface layer...the 
setup for areas of fog to develop looks favorable over the next 
several hours. Potential is there for visibilities to briefly fall 
below 1SM at the outlying terminals in the predawn through daybreak 
before fog dissipates quickly as the morning progresses.

Weak high pressure over the region will enable drier air to make a 
brief appearance over central Indiana later today. While diurnal cu 
will form into the afternoon...the presence of a mid level cap will 
likely be sufficient to keep much if any showers from forming late 
day. Cu will diminish near sunset.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. 

&&

$$

UPDATE...Crosbie
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Ryan

Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 12:35 AM EDT

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LMK issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Jul 10, 3:20 PM EDT

689 
FLUS43 KLMK 101920
HWOLMK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
320 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-111930-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-
Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-Marion-
Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
320 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 /220 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana
and central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening. 
These storms will be capable of producing lightning, localized gusty
winds, and brief heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

$$

Source: LMK issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Jul 10, 3:20 PM EDT

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HEAT WARNING, Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara Region

Issued: 10:41 PM EDT Friday 11 July 2025
Source: HEAT WARNING, Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara Region

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3 E Mount Carmel [Clermont Co, OH] Broadcast Media reports Tstm Wnd Dmg at 4:28 PM EDT -- A couple of trees had large limbs split off of them, downing several power lines in the area along with one power pole.

031 
NWUS51 KILN 092234
LSRILN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
634 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 E Mount Carmel        39.10N 84.25W
07/09/2025                   Clermont           OH   Broadcast Media  

            A couple of trees had large limbs split off 
            of them, downing several power lines in the 
            area along with one power pole. 


&&

$$

Source: 3 E Mount Carmel [Clermont Co, OH] Broadcast Media reports Tstm Wnd Dmg at 4:28 PM EDT -- A couple of trees had large limbs split off of them, downing several power lines in the area along with one power pole.

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Fall River [Bristol Co, MA] Emergency Mngr reports Flash Flood at 1:00 AM EDT -- Several roads flooded throughout town.

509 
NWUS51 KBOX 091526
LSRBOX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1126 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     Flash Flood      Fall River              41.70N 71.15W
07/09/2025                   Bristol            MA   Emergency Mngr   

            Several roads flooded throughout town. 


&&

$$

Source: Fall River [Bristol Co, MA] Emergency Mngr reports Flash Flood at 1:00 AM EDT -- Several roads flooded throughout town.

----------------
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