11
Cranberry farmer hoping someone else will carry on the tradition he started decades ago The owner of one eastern Ontario farm is retiring after three decades of harvesting cranberries. Lyle Slater of Upper Canada Cranberries offers a behind-the-scenes look at how the fruit is harvested. Source: Cranberry farmer hoping someone else will carry on the tradition he started decades ago----------------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
12
BOX upgrades Storm Watch to Storm Warning valid at Oct 12, 2:00 PM EDT for Block Island Sound, Rhode Island Sound [AN] till Oct 13, 8:00 AM EDT723
WHUS71 KBOX 111714
MWWBOX
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
114 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
ANZ236-120800-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0016.251012T1800Z-251014T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0028.251012T1800Z-251013T1800Z/
Narragansett Bay-
114 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY...
* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and
waves around 3 feet expected.
* WHERE...Narragansett Bay.
* WHEN...From 2 PM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Monday.
* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.
&&
$$
ANZ230-120800-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0016.251012T1800Z-251014T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0028.251012T1800Z-251014T0000Z/
Boston Harbor-
114 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...
* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and
waves 1 to 3 feet expected.
* WHERE...Boston Harbor.
* WHEN...From 2 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday.
* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.
&&
$$
ANZ231-120800-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SR.A.0002.251012T1800Z-251014T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0028.251012T1500Z-251014T0000Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
114 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...
* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and
seas 5 to 8 feet expected.
* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay.
* WHEN...From 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday.
* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could
capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.
&&
$$
ANZ233-234-120800-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SR.A.0002.251012T1800Z-251014T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0028.251012T1500Z-251014T0000Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
114 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...
* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and
seas 5 to 8 feet expected.
* WHERE...Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay.
* WHEN...From 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday.
* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could
capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.
&&
$$
ANZ250-254-120800-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SR.A.0002.251012T1800Z-251014T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0028.251012T1500Z-251014T0000Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
114 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...
* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and
seas 11 to 16 feet expected.
* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen
Bank National Marine Sanctuary and Coastal waters from
Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm.
* WHEN...From 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday.
* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could
capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.
&&
$$
ANZ251-120800-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SR.A.0002.251012T1800Z-251014T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0028.251012T1500Z-251014T0000Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
114 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...
* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and
seas 7 to 12 feet expected.
* WHERE...Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.
* WHEN...From 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday.
* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could
capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.
&&
$$
ANZ255-256-120800-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SR.A.0002.251012T1800Z-251014T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0002.251012T1800Z-251013T1200Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
114 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY...
* WHAT...Northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and
seas 12 to 17 feet expected.
* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters
extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from
Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of
Block Island.
* WHEN...From 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday.
* IMPACTS...Storm force winds and hazardous seas will capsize or
damage vessels and reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.
&&
$$
ANZ235-237-120800-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SR.A.0002.251012T1800Z-251014T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0002.251012T1800Z-251013T1200Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
114 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY...
* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and
seas 8 to 13 feet expected.
* WHERE...Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound.
* WHEN...From 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday.
* IMPACTS...Storm force winds and hazardous seas will capsize or
damage vessels and reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.
&&
$$
ANZ232-120800-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SR.A.0002.251012T1800Z-251014T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0002.251012T1800Z-251013T1200Z/
Nantucket Sound-
114 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY...
* WHAT...Northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and
seas 6 to 9 feet expected.
* WHERE...Nantucket Sound.
* WHEN...From 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday.
* IMPACTS...Storm force winds and hazardous seas will capsize or
damage vessels and reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.
&&
$$
Source: BOX upgrades Storm Watch to Storm Warning valid at Oct 12, 2:00 PM EDT for Block Island Sound, Rhode Island Sound [AN] till Oct 13, 8:00 AM EDT---------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
13
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 8:47 PM CDT ...New UPDATE...444
FXUS64 KLIX 070147
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
847 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 838 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
- Areas of dense fog possible overnight in areas that
received heavy rain in the last 24 hours.
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue
through the short term.
- Dry conditions expected beyond midweek.
- Hazardous marine conditions develop later this week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Have opted to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for a large portion of
the area overnight. It's not a slam dunk event, but with a large
area of heavy rain last night, little in the way of clouds, and
light winds, elements are in place for fog development. A
significant amount of model guidance also pinging on low
visibilities. Won't rule out the need to add additional
counties/parishes later in the evening. Will send updated ZFP
shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
A band of heavy rain/storms has developed along and just west of
the I55 corridor this morning. Low level wind shear increased just
enough with LLJ increasing beyond what guidance had suggested
going into the morning, which caused a few updrafts to rotate.
Additionally, training of this band of broken cells have caused
extremely heavy rainfall rates/totals leaving some roads
impassable in Livingston, St Helena, and Tangi Parishes at the
time of this discussion. The LLJ is breaking down and any severe
weather potential will be minimized going into the afternoon and
evening. CAMs also have this band of convection lifting northward
as the surface trough continues to lift north out of the forecast
area. Behind the trough, still isolated to scattered convection
will be possible through the evening. That said, if a band or two
of showers and storms develop over those areas that received the
heaviest rainfall this morning get additional even isolated to
scattered convection, additional hydro threat will continue.
Going further into the short term into tonight and Tuesday, a
modest H5 ridge will spread westward into the region. This will
help set up a drying trend at least from an overall mean QPF
perspective, however, there still remains at least some QPF signal
across the region through the short term period. As the rain
chances drop slightly toward the end of the short term, expect
temperatures to rebound with some areas near the Atchafalaya
reaching the 90 degree mark on Tuesday. As for the ongoing coastal
flood potential, as tides continue to lower and the stronger
easterly flow relaxes, think the overall threat will continue to
drop with each high tide cycle. The only other entity to mention
is overnight tonight with the wet grounds, some lower visibilities
will be possible for those areas. Will need to pay closer to this
potential as locally dense fog certainly isn't out of the realm of
possibility for the Tuesday commute. In fact, the latest SREF
guidance has most areas in the Florida Parishes with a high prob
of 1SM fog around sunrise. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Going into the long term the overall temperatures remain somewhat
above average for early to mid October. Overall, moisture quality
will start to decrease, especially as a weak cold front moves
southward Wednesday and into Thursday before stalling across the
northern Gulf. Ahead of the front lower-end POPs will continue
through Wednesday before any rain chances shift offshore with the
surface feature late in the week. Perhaps lower Plaquemines will
keep rain chances, but that will be only landbased zones with any
type of rain potential. Behind the front dry northwesterly flow
sets up aloft, which will keep the mid and upper level quite dry.
With a broad scale trough settling over the eastern US, late week
looks to be somewhat average or a bit cooler than what we're
seeing early this week with some locations nearing or exceeding 90
degrees at times. As for the overnight, lows along and north of
I10 may drop down to around 60 if not the upper 50s again as dry
northwest flow and lower heights and humidity values all work to
provide a very comfortable overnight temperature...at least away
from warmer water bodies. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
All forecast terminals were VFR at issuance time. If there is
going to be precipitation at a terminal tonight, it will be at
KBTR, where there are currently isolated SHRA to the northwest of
the terminal area. Will carry VCSH there for a few hours. The main
question overnight will be the potential for fog development.
Considering the amount of rain that has fallen in the last 24
hours, the potential for light winds and lack of cloud cover,
tonight seems as good a night for development as any we've had
recently. Will carry IFR or lower conditions from about 10z to 14z
at KBTR/KMCB/KHDC/KASD. As things heat up in the morning, likely
to be a period of MVFR ceilings as cumulus field develops.
Greatest threat for TSRA tomorrow afternoon will be at KGPT. As
areal coverage is expected to be scattered at best, will use
PROB30 for now.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
High pressure will start to become more dominant over the waters
early this week, allowing easterly to southeasterly winds to relax a
bit to between 10 and 15 knots. Seas will also decrease to 2 to 4
feet as the fetch relaxes. This brief respite in rougher conditions
will end on Wednesday as another low in the Gulf develops and
gradually pushes to the west. Northeasterly winds will increase back
to near advisory levels in the offshore waters and seas will
increase to 4 to 6 feet from Wednesday through Friday and perhaps
beyond. As for tidal lakes and nearshore waters, cautionary
headlines are likely, but cannot rule out the need for Small Craft
Advisories even in a general weaker offshore flow regime. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 87 69 85 / 20 20 10 20
BTR 71 89 71 89 / 20 10 10 10
ASD 70 86 69 88 / 20 20 10 20
MSY 75 88 74 90 / 10 20 10 20
GPT 73 85 71 88 / 30 30 10 20
PQL 70 85 69 88 / 30 50 10 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056>058-071-076-079>086.
GM...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-
077.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...RDF
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 8:47 PM CDT ...New UPDATE...--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
14
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 9, 11:00 AM AST866
WTNT45 KNHC 091441
TCDAT5
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025
The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating
Jerry this morning, and the radar and flight-level wind data show
that the storm remains lopsided with nearly all of the strong winds
and convection on the system's east side. The center itself has
been difficult to fix, but the data generally support a position
that is located south-southeast of the previous track. The initial
intensity is held at 55 kt based on a combination of the aircraft
data and satellite estimates.
The initial motion of Jerry is somewhat uncertain given its poor
low-level structure, but our best guess is west-northwestward at 16
kt. A west-northwest to northwest motion should occur today,
bringing the center of the storm just east of the northern Leeward
Islands later today and tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds are
expected in Barbuda and possible on some of the other islands,
however, given Jerry's asymmetric structure, the strongest winds
should pass to the east of the island chain. A turn to the north is
expected to occur tomorrow, and that motion should continue through
most of the weekend as the storm moves in the flow on the western
side of a subtropical ridge. Early next week, a faster eastward or
east-northeastward motion is forecast in the mid-latitude
westerlies. All of the models show Jerry passing east of Bermuda in
3 or 4 days, and given its expected eastward asymmetry, significant
impacts appear unlikely there. The new track forecast is a little to
the left of the previous one in the short term, due to the initial
position adjustment, but ends up near the previous track from 48 to
120 h. This prediction is in good agreement with the HCCA and
Google Deep Mind ensemble mean.
Significant strengthening seems unlikely given Jerry's elongated
low-level structure. However, the shear is expected to let up some
while Jerry remains over warm water and in a moist air mass.
Therefore, slow strengthening is predicted during the next few
days. Slow weakening seems like a good bet beyond a few days when
Jerry is forecast to be moving over slightly cooler SSTs and into
stronger shear. The NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the
previous one and is in best agreement with the HCCA model.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Jerry is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to Barbuda
later today and tonight, and could bring tropical storm conditions
to other portions of the northern Leeward Islands by tonight.
2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas and in steep terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 15.9N 59.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 17.1N 60.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 19.0N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 21.7N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 24.2N 63.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 26.5N 62.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 28.5N 62.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 31.3N 59.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 31.4N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Source: NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 9, 11:00 AM AST--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
15
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 1:47 AM EDT692
FXUS61 KPBZ 110547
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
147 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over New England continues dry and cool conditions
through Saturday. Rain chances rise Saturday night and remain
through the early week especially across the eastern ridges as a
weakening Great Lakes low combines with a developing coastal
storm.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Increasing cloud cover and southerly flow will lead to warmer
overnight temperatures than previous nights.
---------------------------------------------------------------
An upper level situated just north of Michigan will shift
southeast overnight and draw a narrow column of mid-level
moisture into the forecast region. Along with a weak jet streak
aloft, each will foster increasingly broken cloud cover but lack
any precipitation chances. Add in subtle southerly surface flow
ahead of a cold front, and the result is moderation of overnight
temperature compared to previous nights. Low readings are
expected to be near to just slightly below average (for
reference, the average low temperature at the Pittsburgh
International Airport is 45 degrees).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Slight warming trend and dry conditions through Saturday.
- Rainfall through Monday favors northern and eastern areas.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Our pattern begins to shift as we move through the day Saturday. At
the upper levels the closed upper low from the Great Lakes slides
over central PA and begins to open up as it interacts with the
closed upper low over the Southeast. At the SFC, a Great Lakes low
and its associated cold front begin to drown out and transfer energy
to a budding coastal low climbing the Eastern Seaboard. The coastal
low slowly moves north and east hindered by stubborn high pressure
Sun-Mon.
These interactions look to work in tandem to lower rain chances
across our region as the highest POPs and rainfall totals shift
eastwards over the mountains nearer the developing coastal low. Rain
chances peak across our northern tier counties late Saturday as the
Great Lakes low weakens (near 30%) and then across our eastern ridge
counties Sunday and Sunday night as energy transfers to the coastal
low (40-60%). POPs in the Pittsburgh Metro peak between 25-40% on
Sunday and quickly fall off the further west you go. At this point
it looks as though northern and eastern counties see the highest
chances for showers during this time. Rainfall totals are likely to
be lower across our area, with most of the rain falling across our
eastern counties (0.25-0.50") and then a very sharp gradient
immediately west as totals decline to a few hundredths across the
remainder of western PA. Instability is quite low but there could be
a couple of rumbles of thunder Saturday night mainly north and east
of Pittsburgh as the Great Lakes upper low slides through the area.
High temperatures on Saturday are expected to be in the middle 60s
across the north with more stout cloud cover closer to the
approaching trough and ramping up to the low 70s as you move farther
south. The gradient in temperatures becomes more east-west oriented
by Sunday as the upper trough settles across Pennsylvania. High
temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to be near normal
(mainly 60s) across western PA but slightly above average (upper
60s/lower 70s) across eastern OH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry/warm weather continues into Tuesday
- Uncertainty builds mid-week with large-scale pattern
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A persistent ridge axis east of the Rocky Mountains, reaching
into the Ohio River Valley, will bring dry weather and warmer-
than-average temperatures through Tuesday.
By mid-week, it remains uncertain if a trough will form over the
Great Lakes or if the ridge will stay, and long-range ensemble
temperatures indicate about a 10-degree spread between the 25th
and 75th percentile. Should a trough pattern dominate, freezing
conditions could return, accompanied by lake-enhanced
precipitation under a northwest flow.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through most of the day. Mid-level
clouds in the 6-8kft range will increase for FKL/DUJ by sunrise
as a weak cold front crosses the area, coincident with decaying
low pressure digging across the eastern Great Lakes. Mid
clouds should then spread farther southeast after sunrise.
Broad upper level ascent could result in a few scattered
showers around FKL/DUJ after 11z, but given the lower
probability and scattered nature, kept a PROB30 group. These
shouldn't bring much in the way of restrictions with a dry sub-
cloud layer making it tough for visibility-reducing showers.
The best forcing should remain north of the remainder of the
terminals and preclude shower mention elsewhere. Light southerly
wind will veer more northerly through the morning, becoming more
northeasterly by the evening.
A coastal low tracking up the eastern seaboard will return
restrictions and potential for showers Sunday morning. There
will likely be an east-west cutoff of to the restrictions with
the highest probability lying farther east, but some uncertainty
exists with how far west sufficient moisture exists.
.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions and shower chances will likely linger through much
of Sunday and into Monday as the coastal low lifts north.
Probabilities for both ceiling restrictions and showers will
remain highest farther east with an east/west cutoff likely.
High pressure will build back into the region midweek.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger/AK
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger/AK
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Rackley/MLB
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 1:47 AM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
16
ERIE PA Oct 12 Climate Report: High: 69 Low: 46 Precip: Trace Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"589
CDUS41 KCLE 122117
CLIERI
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH
517 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
...................................
...THE ERIE PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 12 2025...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0515 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1873 TO 2025
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 69 102 PM 84 1893 64 5 65
MINIMUM 46 238 AM 30 1891 48 -2 50
AVERAGE 58 56 2 58
PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY T 0.14 -0.14 0.82
MONTH TO DATE 2.23 1.75 0.48 1.08
SINCE SEP 1 4.15 6.07 -1.92 2.78
SINCE JAN 1 29.65 32.43 -2.78 27.01
SNOWFALL (IN)
TODAY 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SINCE SEP 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SNOW DEPTH 0
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
TODAY 7 10 -3 7
MONTH TO DATE 66 98 -32 73
SINCE SEP 1 106 182 -76 90
SINCE JUL 1 136 194 -58 96
COOLING
TODAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 18 11 7 6
SINCE SEP 1 59 101 -42 139
SINCE JAN 1 746 750 -4 910
...................................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 18 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NE (50)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 24 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NE (50)
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.3
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 90 100 AM
LOWEST 61 1200 PM
AVERAGE 76
..........................................................
THE ERIE PA CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 63 83 1983
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 47 33 1934
1957
2012
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
OCTOBER 12 2025.......SUNRISE 730 AM EDT SUNSET 643 PM EDT
OCTOBER 13 2025.......SUNRISE 731 AM EDT SUNSET 642 PM EDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: ERIE PA Oct 12 Climate Report: High: 69 Low: 46 Precip: Trace Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
17
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 3:14 AM EDT214
FXUS63 KIWX 100714
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
314 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A weak front may bring some light showers or sprinkles to
areas along and north of the Toll Road later this afternoon
and evening.
- Much of the next 7 days will feature near to occasionally
somewhat above normal temperatures with the warmest days
likely occuring Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Light SE flow and slowing increasing 850 mb temps seem to be keeping
temperatures in check with everyone still in the low to mid
40s. Suspect frost potential will be very isolated if at all
through sunrise, but no changes planned for the headlines.
Focus then shifts to a weak disturbance, currently located from SW
Iowa to central Wisconsin. A broken lines of showers and even a few
storms were drifting east, assisted by some elevated instability.
The greatest coverage of the storms resided in SW/S central IA. With
time this instability weakens as do the showers, leading to low
confidence in any measurable precipitation falling in the 21Z
to 3Z period as the trough approaches. Models generally
confirming this with fairly saturated soundings AOA 800 mb, then
a dry layer below that. As a result of these factors, pops have
been lowered even more with at best low chc in the far NW. QPF
will be limited to a few hundredths at best. From 6Z Sat on, a
few sprinkles or light showers may linger in S lower MI.
Next feature of interest will be closed upper low which is well
depicted on water vapor in SW Ontario will drop ESE, grazing NE Lake
Huron by 6Z Sat and then reaching western NY by 00Z Sun. Main
impacts into the weekend will be a slowing of the arrival of warmer
temps and a shift in winds back to NW and N, which may stir up waves
some in SE Lake MI.
Modest upper level ridging will try to bring in warmer air, at least
briefly with highs in the low to mid 70s for Mon and Tue before
it flattens out as a weak, moisture starved boundary drops
south. Main impacts from this appear to be a return to more
seasonable temps in the mid 60s and lows in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
VFR conditions expected at the terminals through the period,
with mainly increasing high-mid level clouds to contend with.
Warm air will advect in towards the late morning with a passing
warm front, with E-SE flow shifting south-southwest through the
period. A cold front approaches KSBN around 00z, then crosses
through KFWA by Saturday morning. Light showers are possible
along this front, but moisture is lacking so confidence in any
specifics is low. For now, have VCSH at KSBN from 21z-03z--
though don't expect much of an impact at the terminal from
these. Left out of KFWA for this issuance as best chances
arrive around or just after the end of the TAF period. Will add
greater detail with the 12z TAFS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ005>009-
013>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-116-216.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ079>081.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...MCD
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 3:14 AM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
18
SHELBYVILLE IN Oct 11 Climate Report: High: 74 Low: 48 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing688
CDUS43 KIND 120531
CLIGEZ
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
131 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
...................................
...THE SHELBYVILLE IN CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 11 2025...
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 9999 TO 9999
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
.......................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 74 309 PM 70 4 81
MINIMUM 48 1242 AM 46 2 43
AVERAGE 61 58 3 62
PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.00 0.09 -0.09 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 1.19 1.08 0.11 T
SINCE SEP 1 4.89 4.22 0.67 2.23
SINCE JAN 1 34.94 34.44 0.50 37.45
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
YESTERDAY 4 8 -4 3
MONTH TO DATE 34 71 -37 26
SINCE SEP 1 66 128 -62 44
SINCE JUL 1 88 131 -43 46
COOLING
YESTERDAY 0 1 -1 0
MONTH TO DATE 27 19 8 22
SINCE SEP 1 149 152 -3 217
SINCE JAN 1 1250 1141 109 1455
.......................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 10 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION N (10)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 16 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NE (30)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 3.9
SKY COVER
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.4
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 93 200 AM
LOWEST 38 400 PM
AVERAGE 66
..........................................................
THE SHELBYVILLE IN CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 69 MM MM
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 46 MM MM
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
OCTOBER 12 2025.......SUNRISE 750 AM EDT SUNSET 708 PM EDT
OCTOBER 13 2025.......SUNRISE 752 AM EDT SUNSET 707 PM EDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: SHELBYVILLE IN Oct 11 Climate Report: High: 74 Low: 48 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
19
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 1:30 AM CDT479
FXUS63 KPAH 110630
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
130 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure will keep the next 7 days dry and seasonally
mild.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Despite the Omega blocking-like pattern's hold, there are
subtleties at play in the otherwise 7 day forecast of dry and
seasonally mild conditions. One example is our current cloud
cover associated with a subtle pva kink in the overtop-the-ridge
flow. Gridded time/height cross sections suggest this ribbon of
moisture manifest with the associated deck of clouds lingers
into the mid morning hours before it disperses. If that holds,
fog chances should lessen. But if/where breaks occur, fog can
quickly become an issue, esp in our far east. We'll have to keep
a close eye upon it thru daybreak but will stick with our
inherited/persistence strategy nowcast for now.
The warmest temps of the period look to be in the early half of
the next work week, when H5 heights peak into the 588 DM range,
reflecting a 60+ DM increase from now. This will lead to a bump
back into the lower 80s starting Monday but esp Tuesday and
potentially bleeding into Wednesday, which by then will
represent an almost 10 degree above seasonal normal high. Lows
move similarly, into the mid 50s, also close to 10F above norms
by then.
The high stays strong enough to maintain its predominant
influence thru the remainder of next week, but does show signs
of breaking down a little as low pressure presses in upon it
from the west by week's end. In response, temps should retreat
back a little, more solidly into the 70s for highs, but still
round out a few degrees above normal on the daily. Rain chances
look scarce until 200+ hours into the forecast, so perhaps
before the end of the following weekend we'll see them
re-emerge.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Current satellite trends suggest enough clear skies/scattered
clouds, esp in our east, for patchy fog to offer at least
temporary vsby restrictions as a potential flight hazard thru
daybreak. Otherwise the forecast features a high pressure
dominated pattern with SCT-BKN VFR bases generally 5-7K FT AGL
thru the effective valid time of the terminal forecast package.
Obviously, where clouds are more robust pre-daybreak, fog will
be less of a concern; gridded time/height cross sections do hint
at that potential evolution with a narrow ribbon of moisture
showing thru about mid morning, after which it squeezes out with
time.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 1:30 AM CDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
20
FRANKFORT KY Oct 12 Climate Report: High: 73 Low: 45 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing334
CDUS43 KLMK 130639
CLIFFT
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
239 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
...................................
...THE FRANKFORT KY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 12 2025...
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1895 TO 2025
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 73 305 PM 89 1953 71 2 80
1963
MINIMUM 45 700 AM 28 1988 47 -2 45
AVERAGE 59 59 0 63
PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.00 1.71 1919 0.11 -0.11 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 4.35 1.37 2.98 0.09
SINCE SEP 1 10.20 4.72 5.48 5.95
SINCE JAN 1 58.19 37.94 20.25 36.92
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
YESTERDAY 6 7 -1 2
MONTH TO DATE 36 65 -29 37
SINCE SEP 1 50 105 -55 50
SINCE JUL 1 56 106 -50 51
COOLING
YESTERDAY 0 1 -1 0
MONTH TO DATE 26 21 5 20
SINCE SEP 1 187 187 0 234
SINCE JAN 1 1341 1318 23 1483
...................................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 7 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NE (60)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 13 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NW (310)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 1.9
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.0
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 99 700 AM
LOWEST 44 300 PM
AVERAGE 72
..........................................................
THE FRANKFORT KY CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 71 90 1947
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 47 26 1988
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
OCTOBER 13 2025.......SUNRISE 747 AM EDT SUNSET 704 PM EDT
OCTOBER 14 2025.......SUNRISE 748 AM EDT SUNSET 703 PM EDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: FRANKFORT KY Oct 12 Climate Report: High: 73 Low: 45 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
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