ThreatWeb

061 
WUUS03 KWNS 291928
PTSDY3

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025

VALID TIME 311200Z - 011200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3

... ANY SEVERE ...

0.05   28939291 31839254 33798959 37358402 42897783 43997568
       44307360 43247200 41847274 40687355 38947356 99999999
       29788052 29428213 28538330
0.15   28549118 31509072 32548985 34908555 37108315 41977760
       43437562 43247403 42397336 40477441 38517423 99999999
       31568042 30858251 29408443
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3

... CATEGORICAL ...

SLGT   31568039 30868251 29428442 99999999 28579120 31479070
       32478996 33638781 34858557 36948320 42207741 43437566
       43257404 42417335 40517439 38597419
MRGL   29009279 31769261 33658981 37358398 42757786 43997571
       44307362 43267200 41857275 40707362 39037355 99999999
       29778046 29428213 28458341
TSTM   28839437 29849492 30589510 31579463 32629314 33669139
       34459009 42817974 99999999 49680993 46330494 43980251
       41770125 39010099 37370229 36830339 36850540 37130751
       38240939 38511222 38791555 38351712 37871843 37941965
       38802163 39272293 39682506

&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE
SAV 30 SSW AYS 45 ESE AAF ...CONT... 75 SSW HUM 25 NNW MCB 70 W MEI
30 NNW TCL 25 WSW CHA 40 SSE JKL 25 W ELM 25 NW UCA 20 WSW GFL PSF
15 SW EWR 65 SSE ACY.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW
7R4 30 E IER 20 NE GWO 20 NNE LOZ 30 SSW ROC 15 E ART 25 WSW BTV 25
W CON 10 SW BDL 10 ENE JFK 60 ESE ACY ...CONT... 55 ESE SGJ 20 NNE
OCF 60 NW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE GLS 25 ENE HOU
25 ESE UTS 25 NNE LFK 40 ENE SHV 20 E LLQ 30 W UOX 50 NNW JHW
...CONT... 80 N HVR 35 W BHK 25 E RAP 20 SSW MHN 45 ESE GLD 20 ENE
SPD 30 NNW CAO 50 SSE ALS 15 E DRO 40 SSE CNY 45 E MLF 50 SW ELY 20
N TPH 35 N BIH 65 NE MER 20 NNW SAC 15 ENE UKI 90 SSW EKA.

137 
WHUS54 KMOB 311525
SMWMOB
GMZ633>635-650-655-670-675-311700-
/O.NEW.KMOB.MA.W.0043.250331T1525Z-250331T1700Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1025 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...
  Coastal waters from Okaloosa-Walton County Line to Pensacola FL out
  20 NM...
  Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM...
  Pensacola Bay Area including Santa Rosa Sound...
  Perdido Bay Area...
  Waters from Okaloosa-Walton County Line to Pensacola FL from 20 to
  60 NM...
  Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM...
  Western Choctawhatchee Bay...

* Until noon CDT.

* At 1024 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 24 nm northwest of Escambia Bay Bridge to 16 nm
  north of Lillian Bridge to 8 nm east of Farewell Buoy to 19 nm
  south of Sand Island Lighthouse, moving east at 35 knots.

  HAZARD...Wind gusts to 40 knots.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and 
           suddenly higher waves.

* Locations impacted include...
  Fort Walton Beach, Big Lagoon, Pensacola Beach, Shalimar, Fort
  Pickens, Okaloosa Pier, Pensacola Bay, West Choctawhatchee Bay,
  East Santa Rosa Sound, and West Santa Rosa Sound.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 3032 8765 3037 8764 3040 8749 3047 8746
      3049 8738 3044 8730 3036 8739 3042 8723
      3049 8719 3056 8726 3063 8722 3055 8706
      3063 8703 3042 8685 3043 8668 3054 8643
      3036 8639 2981 8671 2936 8805 2988 8831
TIME...MOT...LOC 1524Z 282DEG 36KT 3081 8747 3068 8751 3011 8791 2987
8816

HAIL...0.00IN
WIND...40KTS

$$
Black

243 
FXUS61 KCLE 030801
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
401 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and frontal boundaries oscillating back and forth
through the area will bring waves of showers and thunderstorms 
with moderate to heavy rain at times through the weekend.
Conditions then turn cold early next week with light snow 
possibly making a brief return.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The synoptic scale upper level pattern through the near term, and at 
least the short term also, is going to continue to be dominated by a 
persistent deep trough over the four corners region with 
southwesterly flow through the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. 
This will keep a continuous feed of low level moisture into the 
southern Great Lakes with oscillating frontal boundaries carrying 
waves of low pressure through them, and thus, multiple rounds of 
rain. For the current near term period, cold front will push the 
extensive line of convection through the CWA by morning, with 
lingering light amounts through around the noon hour. After this 
second wave of moderate/heavy rainfall since Wednesday morning, will 
get another needed hydro break with some recovery time this 
afternoon. 18Z Thursday to 00Z Friday is largely dry with POPs 
getting reintroduced this evening. Cold front will begin to lift 
back northward through the Ohio Valley as a warm front Thursday 
night into Friday, although staying south of the CWA. Strong low/mid 
level frontogenesis sets up in this area north of the warm front. 
The biggest question will be the northward extent, in which the NAM 
is most aggressive in putting the highest concentration of the 
low/mid level forcing in our CWA. Much of the other guidance keeps 
it more south of the CWA, and will go with this favored solution for 
now. Another brief period of drier weather for Friday keeping most 
of the precipitation south through 21Z or so, then lifting back 
north again as the warm front nears the southern CWA border with yet 
another round of rain into the short term forecast period. 
Temperatures remain on the milder side for today, but cool into the 
50s for Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The low and mid level flow largely remains parallel to the frontal 
boundary cutting through the CWA, in this case, a warm front that 
continues to slowly push northward. This is the next round of 
convection/rain Friday night, assisted by the low level jet over 
65kts again now that the CWA is back in the warm sector. Cold front 
then drops back through again 12-18Z Saturday. One final wave of low 
pressure to ride up along the frontal boundary towards the Ohio 
Valley, but by now, the four corners trough is exiting, weakening, 
and now awaiting absorption into a larger trough axis to the north 
that is dominating the middle third of the country. With the upper 
level energy exiting, the surface low pressure system will do so as 
well. Colder air will also begin to make its presence known Sunday 
as cold air advection has a better chance to anchor into place over 
the southern Great Lakes. Prior to the cold front Saturday, 60s 
should be prevalent for the CWA. Total QPF from this morning through 
Saturday night remain at 2.5 to 4 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Colder in the long term and back into a snow shower potential after 
a sharp cold front drops southward through the lakes Monday with a 
reinforcing shot of colder air. Late Monday night into Tuesday 
becomes more winter like, and snow shower potential ramps up, 
possibly for the Tuesday morning commute. Cannot ignore the 
potential for light accumulations during this time frame, and highs 
largely in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the CWA. Improvement 
expected Wednesday and Thursday with gradual airmass modification 
under high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A line of thunderstorms between I-71/I-77 continues to move 
east across the area, generally consisting of ceilings around 
2-5kft, visibilities in the 2-6SM range, and the potential for 
gusts in the 30-40 knot range. General tendency should be for 
thunderstorms to weaken in intensity as they move east. The 
cold front will move through the area late in the TAF period 
with rain coverage decreasing and winds veering while remaining 
with westerly gusts in the 20-30 knot range. MVFR ceilings 
should still remain for a couple hours after the bulk of the 
thunderstorms exit this morning but should quickly improve to 
VFR conditions by mid to late morning. Rain showers return from
the south after 00Z this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings may continue across the region
Thursday night into Friday with some non-VFR visibility possible
in showers and storms, mainly towards the southern part of the
forecast area. Non-VFR more likely areawide in showers and 
thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday with non-VFR ceilings 
continuing into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will gradually ease out of the southwest to 10-15kts 
later today before turning westerly and then northwesterly 
tonight at the same rate. Expect constantly varying wind 
directions around 10- 15kts thanks to frontal boundaries that 
travel north and south across Lake Erie with areas of low 
pressure also moving through, and wave heights averaging 1-3ft 
through the weekend. A late Monday cold front brings northwest 
winds 20kts Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ003-006>011-017>021-
     027>032-036>038-047.
PA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for 
     LEZ142>145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for 
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26

554 
WGUS43 KIND 031102
FLWIND

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
702 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...The National Weather Service in Indianapolis IN has issued a 
Flood Warning for the following streams in Indiana...

  Sugar Creek at New Palestine.

  Haw Creek near Clifford.

  Youngs Creek at Amity.

  Big Blue River at Carthage.

.Minor to moderate flooding is expected to continue into this weekend
following additional moderate to heavy rainfall this week.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/ind.

The next statement should be issued this afternoon by around 315 PM 
EDT.

&&

INC059-040015-
/O.NEW.KIND.FL.W.0044.250403T1102Z-250404T0009Z/
/NPLI3.1.ER.250403T0815Z.250403T1300Z.250403T1808Z.NO/
702 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING TO THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sugar Creek at New Palestine.

* WHEN...From this morning to this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 9.0 feet, Extensive flooding along Sugar Creek in 
  southern Hancock and western Shelby Counties.  After reaching this 
  level, and when the Big Blue River was near 16.5 feet, one day 
  later several homes along the creek west of Shelbyville were 
  evacuated.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:30 AM EDT Thursday the stage was 8.6 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 6:30 AM EDT Thursday was 8.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 8.8
    feet late this morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    this afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3978 8583 3961 8591 3961 8595 3979 8586


$$

INC005-031945-
/O.NEW.KIND.FL.W.0043.250403T1102Z-250403T1936Z/
/HCCI3.1.ER.250403T0654Z.250403T1000Z.250403T1335Z.NO/
702 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING TO LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Haw Creek near Clifford.

* WHEN...From this morning to late this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 12.5 feet, Rocky Ford Road just west of Marr Road 
  closes because of flooding. Rocky Ford Road floods on the westside 
  of the bridge. Columbus People Trail also flooded. CR 450 N 
  outside of the City of Columbus is closed according to Columbus 
  Flood Response Plan.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:30 AM EDT Thursday the stage was 12.8 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 6:30 AM EDT Thursday was 12.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late this morning and continue falling and remain below flood
    stage.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3926 8585 3923 8587 3918 8590 3920 8593
      3925 8589 3927 8586


$$

INC081-031915-
/O.NEW.KIND.FL.W.0042.250403T1102Z-250403T1908Z/
/AMTI3.1.ER.250403T0743Z.250403T1000Z.250403T1307Z.NO/
702 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING TO LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Youngs Creek at Amity.

* WHEN...From this morning to late this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 7.0 feet, Youngs Creek at flood stage.  Most low 
  areas along creek are flooded.   Approaches to CR 400S bridge over 
  Youngs Creek begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:15 AM EDT Thursday the stage was 7.7 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 6:15 AM EDT Thursday was 7.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late this morning and continue falling and remain below flood
    stage.
  - Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3945 8602 3943 8599 3938 8598 3937 8602
      3942 8602 3945 8605


$$

INC065-139-145-040215-
/O.NEW.KIND.FL.W.0045.250403T1256Z-250404T0718Z/
/CARI3.1.ER.250403T1256Z.250403T1900Z.250404T0117Z.NO/
702 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Big Blue River at Carthage.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 8.5 feet, A frequent high water level. This occurs 
  about two or three times a year. Local roads near the Big Blue 
  River flood. Water surrounds a few homes in Carthage, enters dog 
  houses in southern Carthage and affects used auto parts yard in 
  Carthage. Water is in yards in the southern outskirts of 
  Knightstown and extreme eastern Raysville.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:45 AM EDT Thursday the stage was 6.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this morning to a crest of 7.9 feet late this afternoon. It
    will then fall below flood stage late this evening.
  - Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3980 8547 3967 8564 3951 8574 3954 8580
      3971 8573 3982 8553


$$

AW

485 
WGUS53 KLMK 031931
FFWLMK
KYC005-029-155-167-179-211-215-229-032230-
/O.NEW.KLMK.FF.W.0025.250403T1931Z-250403T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Louisville KY
331 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Anderson County in central Kentucky...
  Bullitt County in central Kentucky...
  Northwestern Marion County in central Kentucky...
  Western Mercer County in central Kentucky...
  Nelson County in central Kentucky...
  Southern Shelby County in central Kentucky...
  Spencer County in central Kentucky...
  Washington County in central Kentucky...

* Until 630 PM EDT.

* At 331 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are 
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Bardstown, Shepherdsville, Lawrenceburg, Lebanon, Springfield, 
  Taylorsville, Mount Washington, Ballard, Hillview and Lebanon 
  Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3807 8556 3814 8541 3813 8502 3810 8483
      3776 8488 3747 8534 3747 8547 3756 8553
      3752 8557 3754 8563 3760 8559 3762 8561
      3762 8557 3764 8560 3769 8559 3773 8569
      3774 8568 3800 8593

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

AMS