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LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 11:17 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

415 
FXUS64 KLIX 081617
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1117 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Starting the work week with overall less coverage in daily
  afternoon rain/storm chances. However, rain chances pick up
  later in the week into the weekend.

- Afternoon max heat indicies reach into the 100-105F range late
  week and into the weekend. 
  
- Further slow easing of tide levels is expected over the next few
  days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Starting off with late this morning taking a look at the upper-
levels, we've entered a bit of a broad ridging pattern taking 
over most of the southern and SE US. This has led to a steady 
decrease in available lift/dynamic forcing for enhanced 
shower/storm coverage like we've seen the past several days, 
turning back to a more summertime-like diurnally driven isolated 
storm risk. GOES-16 satellite trends, as mentioned in the morning 
update highlights a few patchy mid/upper-level clouds coinciding 
with a tongue of H5-H3 moisture advecting from south Texas to the 
SE US. Coverage is thin/broken up enough to not impact Cu 
development as we're continuing to see. Proximity soundings 
illustrate what's going on outside the window well, showing an 
evident dry slug/compressional warming in the low- levels, and 
noticeable positive buoyancy between the bottom of this inversion
and LCL supporting shallow Cu development. 12Z HRRR came in a bit
more with coverage later today, which supports the morning uptick
in PoP's that will remain in place today as we should see 
diurnally- supported shallow showers/storms primarily across the 
Atchafalaya Basin to the Florida Parishes/SW MS. Again, not a 
whole lot of coverage (15% currently) but could see a passing 
shower or storm at times.

Quiet tonight, then rinse/repeat for tomorrow. However, could see
a rather evident lake/seabreeze boundary, skewed to the west some
due to SE winds. This typically sets up the zone of greatest 
confluence from the Lake Pontchartrain/Maurepas lakebreeze 
pressing SW from the lakes and coastal SE LA seabreeze racing 
north to support a zone of greatest scattered shower/storm chances
along the MS river parishes or Atchafalya Basin, in a broader 
sense areas west of I-55. Same story for Thursday. 

As for temps all days, we'll see highs uptick a little bit each 
day, likely reaching the low 90's for many areas Wed and Thu as we
become settled under the center of a southern US 588dm ridge. No 
adjustments were needed for highs as deterministic values are 
coming in reasonable. KLG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Late-week, indications are pointing at the dominant ridge to
steadily break down, revealing an uptick in mainly late morning
through evening scattered rain/storm chances. Don't want to get
into the weeds this far out with details, but there are hints of a
strong upper-level trough diving into the northern/central plains,
breaking down the ridge and providing NW flow, or even a front 
eventually into the northern Gulf coast states. This could lead 
to a few MCS's into SE US or coastal areas, just remains to be 
seen. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Primarily VFR conditions are expected for all area terminals
through the forecast period. CIGs this afternoon from SCT/BKN Cu
will bounce around 025-040 with times, with winds primarily light
in the 06-10kt range. Could see a a few SCT RA/TSRA mainly for
terminals east of I-59, but impacts will be limited with only
brief/temporary VIS/CIG reductions but will be VFR outside of any
of this activity. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

High pressure anchored off the mid-atlantic coastline will continue 
to provide onshore, primarily weak SE flow which will promote 
weak/calm waves seas through the rest of the week. Scattered 
rain/storm chances will increase later in the week into the weekend. 
Winds and seas will be higher in and near any thunderstorm activity 
that does occur. KLG

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...KLG

Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 11:17 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

---------------
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4 NE Antrim [Guernsey Co, OH] Public reports Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg at 11 Jun, 3:37 PM EDT -- Multiple trees down near Londonderry.

116 
NWUS51 KPBZ 120043
LSRPBZ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
843 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 4 NE Antrim             40.15N 81.30W
06/11/2026                   Guernsey           OH   Public           

            Multiple trees down near Londonderry. 


&&

$$

Milcarek

Source: 4 NE Antrim [Guernsey Co, OH] Public reports Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg at 11 Jun, 3:37 PM EDT -- Multiple trees down near Londonderry.

---------------
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SOUTH BEND Jun 11 Climate Report: High: 84 Low: 65 Precip: 1.48" Snow: Missing

001 
CDUS43 KIWX 120635
CLISBN

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
235 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026

...................................

...THE SOUTH BEND CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 11 2026...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2026


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         84    254 PM 100    1933  79      5       87       
  MINIMUM         65    558 AM  35    1972  57      8       59       
  AVERAGE         75                        68      7       73     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  YESTERDAY        1.48          2.81 2009   0.14   1.34     0.00     
  MONTH TO DATE    4.79                      1.52   3.27     2.24     
  SINCE JUN 1      4.79                      1.52   3.27     2.24     
  SINCE JAN 1     21.59                     16.53   5.06    14.68     

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                              
  YESTERDAY        0                         2     -2        0        
  MONTH TO DATE    0                        28    -28       19        
  SINCE JUN 1      0                        28    -28       19        
  SINCE JUL 1   5849                      6386   -537     5602        

 COOLING                                                              
  YESTERDAY       10                         4      6        8        
  MONTH TO DATE   87                        40     47       28        
  SINCE JUN 1     87                        40     47       28        
  SINCE JAN 1    146                        96     50       63        
...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                            
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    39   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     W (280)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    56   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     W (280)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED    10.7                                        


SKY COVER                                                             
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.5                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                    
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                         
  THUNDERSTORM                                                        
  HEAVY RAIN                                                          
  RAIN                                                                
  LIGHT RAIN                                                          
  FOG                                                                 


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST    97           600 AM                                      
 LOWEST     61           300 PM                                      
 AVERAGE    79                                                        

..........................................................


THE SOUTH BEND CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   79        94      1901                      
                                             1956                     
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   57        42      1936                      


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                    
JUNE 12 2026..........SUNRISE   610 AM EDT   SUNSET   920 PM EDT     
JUNE 13 2026..........SUNRISE   610 AM EDT   SUNSET   921 PM EDT     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

Source: SOUTH BEND Jun 11 Climate Report: High: 84 Low: 65 Precip: 1.48" Snow: Missing

---------------
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PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 11, 5:25 PM CDT

161 
FXUS63 KPAH 112225
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
525 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms accompany a cold frontal passage late this
  evening through the night, primarily exiting our area by
  Friday morning. The overall severe threat is fairly low, but a
  few stronger storms could produce pockets of damaging winds
  along with brief heavy rainfall.

- Soupy conditions return Saturday afternoon and may linger into
  Sunday. Another round of showers and storms appears likely
  Saturday into Saturday night, and this may linger into at
  least the first half of Sunday. A few stronger storms are
  possible which includes the threat for heavy rainfall and
  flash flooding.

- Early next week is trending cooler and less humid. There is a
  70-90% chance at dew points remaining below 60 degrees on 
  Monday and Tuesday! This appears short-lived though as higher 
  humidity and warmer temperatures look to return later in the 
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 525 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Shortwave troughing across the northern plains early this 
afternoon is expected to quickly eject northeast into the Great 
Lakes tonight. A cold front will extend into the central plains
making its way through the area during the overnight hours. A 
line of showers/storms will develop along the front as it moves 
southeast. Modest instability will remain in place despite 
nocturnal cooling with MLCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg. 
Shear will be lacking and decreasing further south and east as 
the line pushes in. The current thinking is that the line 
overall will be weakening as it pushes through but a few storms
could intensify to severe levels with a damaging wind threat. 
Localized flooding can't be ruled out but the line should be 
moving quick enough to limit the flood risk. 

Showers and storms exit the area Friday with high pressure 
building in providing northeast winds and much lower humidity. 
Dewpoints are expected to fall into the 50s across portions of 
the region. Zonal flow develops aloft over the weekend with a 
weak boundary draped across the Midsouth. As this boundary lifts
north a weak shortwave will traverse the region aiding in 
showers and storm development late Saturday into early Sunday. 
Depending on instability and shear trends, some strong storms 
can't be ruled out. High PW's will be in place for a flash 
flooding threat as well. Early next week features drier and 
cooler temperatures as a result of high pressure to the north. 
LREF continue to paint 70-90% chances of dewpoints below 60 
degrees Monday into Tuesday. A system to the south could offer 
low end rain chances to southern portions of the area but at 
this time the forecast is dry into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A cold front's approach and passage late tonight will bring
lowering bases with restrictions to CIGS/VSBYS with SHRA/TSRA.
Upon its immediate passage, expect a wind shift to northwest,
then becoming northerly and diminishing thereafter. Bases will
then scatter and eventually clear heading into the planning 
phase hours of the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075-081-
     085.
MO...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ100.
IN...None.
KY...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ007>009-
     011-012.

&&

$$

Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 11, 5:25 PM CDT

---------------
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The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jun 11, 12:58z for portions of JKL

281 
WUUS01 KWNS 111300
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026

VALID TIME 111300Z - 121200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02   42908141 41348406 40428620 39148852 38009035 37409249
       38279485 39349472 40229473 40969441 41819439 42339424
       42849339 43529174 45768247 
0.05   43078184 41508436 40508649 39008980 38239151 38639327
       40359394 41579387 42269346 43549026 45348188 
0.10   43119041 43348903 42888783 41688721 40808746 39529116
       39859265 40319328 41739335 42439238 43119041 
0.15   40369171 40989218 42049159 42518999 42478834 42148801
       41408777 40758827 39999058 40049095 40369171 
CIG1   41999348 43379004 44408618 44808398 43718278 42098365
       40298822 39619068 39469120 39449126 39759260 40279340
       41999348 
CIG2   42488994 42508848 41628803 40698851 39969057 40379171
       41049215 42059161 42488994 
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   42768102 41858220 40628365 38858691 37189028 35949324
       34539577 33010045 32680128 32520229 32670275 33240279
       33590247 34350115 35669920 36459771 37639671 39139550
       39839520 41009443 42829419 43799278 46898327 
0.05   38567504 37337621 36967818 36827926 37098060 37588142
       38548158 39308038 39817866 40647793 41507626 42297479
       42177368 41347275 39667412 38567504 
0.15   42658171 41248427 38389019 36569396 34959602 33580085
       33990097 35239896 36139771 37049643 39179476 39669474
       40399474 41109417 42049412 43139241 46508282 
CIG1   42059412 42449386 43789096 43908958 43318818 41818751
       41488777 40958847 39929013 38169397 38529509 39119528
       39659514 41139420 42059412 
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   37127484 36637613 36097748 35988061 36118170 37078227
       38048306 38488432 38188514 36668793 34529392 33759680
       33020094 32860199 33070232 33490220 34170129 35629923
       36489769 37609679 39089550 40149489 41119465 42029456
       42939416 43779276 46718374 99999999 42897996 42257919
       43057719 43097455 42477253 40597144 
0.15   42718153 40578362 37578946 36719138 35379410 34589563
       34019903 33590018 33270140 33730142 35079927 36219739
       36999645 37909570 39259473 39979473 41499413 42139406
       43149242 46368320 
0.15   38767484 37297634 37077763 36827921 37118063 37618143
       38508161 39448113 40358020 40817906 41367646 41777567
       42297483 42217368 41437274 40707301 40347362 38767484
0.30   43139101 43828943 44738618 44968427 44068291 41718392
       40108723 38579147 38859315 39319392 39449415 39789441
       40209452 40549436 41029412 41569384 41999326 43139101
0.30   38627808 39707677 40497590 41117476 40767434 40147435
       39477506 38877569 38347664 37937732 38347805 38627808
0.45   40039147 40539282 40979317 41599312 42099230 43009015
       43118887 42878591 42598537 41968559 41438618 41038708
       40708817 40089032 40039147 
0.60   40538952 40399052 40359169 40989216 41699205 42069157
       42479064 42738959 42718785 42428742 41968739 41478756
       40778827 40538952 
CIG1   41539379 42459240 43758948 44408746 44798595 44998428
       44068293 41938420 40168775 39618878 38589150 38849314
       39519420 39819445 40269450 41539379 
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

MDT    41699205 42069157 42479064 42738959 42718785 42428742
       41968739 41478756 40778827 39999058 40359169 40989216
       41699205 
ENH    41539379 42359256 43758948 44738618 44968427 44068293
       41938420 39618878 38589150 38859315 39519420 39789441
       40259450 41539379 
SLGT   42558169 40578362 37578946 36719138 34589563 34019903
       33590018 33270140 33730142 35419871 37049643 39219476
       40399474 40829439 41439415 42139406 43149242 46378319
SLGT   39448113 40358020 40817906 41367646 42297483 42217368
       41437274 40707301 40347362 38767484 37297634 36827921
       37118063 37618143 38508161 39448113 
MRGL   42897996 42257919 43057719 43097455 42477253 40597144
       99999999 36977524 36097748 35988061 36118170 37078227
       38048306 38488432 38188514 36668793 34529392 33759680
       33229980 32680128 32520229 32670275 33240279 33590247
       34350115 35669920 36489769 39139550 39839520 40409483
       41119465 42029456 42939416 43799278 46748373 
TSTM   30720568 31850427 36080378 36870268 37219974 37459770
       38699634 39019617 39549567 40169561 40549560 41139558
       42789603 44069726 44419816 44599933 45380384 45800546
       45310707 45550844 47071034 48451183 49471416 99999999
       28928353 30648367 31428460 31898690 32918753 33678688
       34528595 35508544 35818613 35288670 34618816 33798959
       33758996 32769383 32119719 31789944 31690075 31200203
       29310239 99999999 30379663 31219539 31389412 31389216
       30368967 29308893 28949035 29689275 29929420 29089561
       28689671 29649694 30379663 99999999 47576949 46266871
       43187010 41516882 

&&
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SW CID 15 NNE CID  0 - DBQ 30 SSW MSN  0 - RAC 30 SE RAC 40 NNW
VPZ 30 W VPZ 40 ENE BMI 35 E UIN 40 NW UIN 15 ESE OTM 20 SW CID

THERE IS A ENHANCED RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
0 - DSM 15 SSW ALO 45 N MSN 30 N MBL 35 WSW APN 20 N BAX 25 SSE
JXN 15 SSE DEC 35 NNE VIH 25 ENE SZL 35 NE MKC 25 E STJ 40 NNE STJ
0 - DSM

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80
N CLE 30 S FDY 20 SW MDH 25 E UNO 20 SSE MLC 30 W SPS 60 S CDS 35
SE LBB 25 E LBB 30 ENE CSM 30 NW BVO 10 NW MKC 45 NNE STJ 30 WNW
LWD 25 WSW DSM 30 SSE FOD 40 N ALO 55 E ANJ

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15
ENE PKB 10 S PIT 25 SSW DUJ 25 ENE IPT 40 N MSV 25 SW PSF 25 NE
BDR  0 - ISP 20 SSE JFK 40 SE DOV 30 NNW ORF 20 NNE DAN  0 - PSK
20 SW BKW 10 N CRW 15 ENE PKB

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 NNE ERI 10 NNE JHW 25 E ROC 45 WNW ALB 25 NNE BAF 40 S BID
...CONT... 55 E ORF 25 SSE RZZ 40 WSW GSO 30 NNW HKY 40 N TRI 40
NNE JKL 35 NNE LEX 30 WNW LEX 25 W HOP 40 NE DEQ 10 WNW GYI 55 N
ABI 35 NNE BGS 40 N MAF 25 E HOB 45 NNE HOB 40 W LBB 35 ENE PVW 25
N CSM 15 NE END 10 ENE TOP 15 WNW STJ 45 N STJ 45 ENE SDA 40 SSW
FOD 25 N FOD 15 WSW RST 35 ENE ANJ

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE ELP 35 S CNM
45 SW CAO 30 S SPD 40 SSE DDC 20 SW ICT 25 NNW EMP 30 ESE MHK 35 N
TOP  0 - FNB 15 SSW SDA 20 SE OMA 30 NE SUX 25 SW BKX  0 - HON 55
N 9V9 20 SW 2WX 25 N 4BQ 40 N SHR 20 SSE BIL 50 NNW 3HT 30 ESE CTB
80 N GPI ...CONT... 55 SSW CTY 25 WSW VLD 25 WSW ABY 30 S SEM 20
SSE TCL 10 NW BHM 40 N GAD 35 NNW CHA 40 SE BNA 45 N HSV 30 WSW
MSL 35 NE GWO 20 NNE GWO 20 N SHV 35 N ACT 30 W BWD 25 NNW SJT 55
S MAF 50 SSW 6R6 ...CONT... 20 SW CLL 35 N UTS 40 ENE LFK 10 E ESF
10 E ASD 30 E BVE 50 SSE HUM 40 W 7R4 10 W BPT 10 WSW LBX 15 SE
VCT 55 N VCT 20 SW CLL ...CONT... 85 NW CAR 45 WNW HUL 35 SSE PWM
65 ENE ACK

Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jun 11, 12:58z for portions of JKL

---------------
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