ThreatWeb

991 
FXUS64 KMOB 140422
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1122 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1122 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

 - Heat index values of 100-107 are expected for Monday and
   Tuesday.

 - A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and
   Thursday.

 - Moderate to strong easterly winds may create hazardous
   conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late Tuesday
   night through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

An upper ridge builds over the region through Monday and persists
until retreating from the area later in the week in response to 
an upper low which advances from the far western Atlantic into the
eastern Gulf. A surface ridge over the interior eastern states 
builds into the southeastern states through midweek which results
in an easterly surface flow setting up over the forecast area on
Tuesday. Despite subsidence associated with the upper ridge 
building into the area, may see isolated showers and storms 
develop Monday afternoon over southeast Mississippi and 
southwestern Alabama aided by the sea breeze and a series of weak 
upper level shortwaves. With subsidence effects becoming more 
pronounced on Tuesday, anticipate dry conditions to prevail 
although may see some convective development over extreme 
southeast Mississippi. A surge in the easterly winds accompanying
the surface ridge building into the region looks to lead to 
isolated to scattered showers and storms developing mainly over 
the marine area Tuesday night which then moves off to the west on
Wednesday. While dry conditions otherwise prevail over land areas
Tuesday night and Wednesday, this may bring some isolated
convection mainly to coastal Alabama late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.

Dry conditions follow for Thursday, then as the upper low and an
associated inverted surface trof move into the eastern Gulf and
adjacent coastal areas will have slight chance pops near the 
coast on Friday with slight chance to chance pops areawide for 
Saturday. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 90s with 
mostly mid 90s for Tuesday. Heat index values on Monday will be 
100-107 with similar values for Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday will 
be 90-95, then highs on Thursday through Saturday typically range 
from around 90 near the coast to the lower 90s further inland. An 
easterly surface flow for Wednesday through Friday ushers in lower
surface dewpoints which keep heat index values limited. While 
surface dewpoints begin to trend higher on Saturday, high 
temperatures mostly in the lower 90s will keep heat index values 
at 95-100. A low risk of rip currents on Monday and Tuesday trends
to a high risk for Wednesday and Thursday, with a moderate risk 
following for Friday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Scattered showers and storms moving toward the coast will diminish 
by 01-02Z, though outflow could produce a brief northerly wind shift 
at the Mobile TAF sites. VFR conditions will prevail through the 
period outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday 
afternoon (10-20% chance), mainly near the coast and parts of 
southeast MS. There is also a low chance (<30%) of isolated patchy 
fog north of I-10 late tonight. Visibility reductions to MVFR or 
briefly lower will be possible with any of this activity. Light 
and variable winds tonight will become northerly in the morning, 
turning generally southerly to southwesterly during the afternoon 
at around 5-10 knots over coastal counties. JGC/98

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

An upper high moving over the Tennessee River Valley/Southeast 
will shift a surface high over the northern Gulf, bringing a 
more variable flow to area waters early in the coming week. 
A surface ridge develops on the east side of the Appalachians 
through the coming week, bringing a tighter gradient over area 
waters and a moderate easterly flow to protected waters, with 
moderate to strong flow over open Gulf waters. A Small Craft 
Advisory is expected mid week.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  94  74  93 /  10  10   0  10 
Pensacola   77  93  77  92 /   0   0   0  10 
Destin      77  92  78  92 /  10   0   0  10 
Evergreen   71  97  72  96 /   0  10   0   0 
Waynesboro  72  97  72  97 /   0  20   0   0 
Camden      72  97  72  96 /   0  20   0   0 
Crestview   72  94  73  94 /  10   0   0  10 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

573 
CDUS41 KCLE 162122
CLITOL

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH
522 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026

...................................

...THE TOLEDO OH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 16 2026...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0515 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1873 TO 2026


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         76    127 PM  97    1939  78     -2       82       
  MINIMUM         70    828 AM  35    1966  55     15       54       
                                      2007                           
  AVERAGE         73                        66      7       68     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  TODAY            0.37                      0.10   0.27     0.00     
  MONTH TO DATE    1.52                      1.58  -0.06     0.60     
  SINCE SEP 1      1.52                      1.58  -0.06     0.60     
  SINCE JAN 1     27.77                     25.98   1.79    22.74     

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
  TODAY            0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0      
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0      
  SINCE SEP 1      0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0      
  SINCE JUL 1      0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0      
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                              
  TODAY            0                         2     -2        0        
  MONTH TO DATE    5                        18    -13       34        
  SINCE SEP 1      5                        18    -13       34        
  SINCE JUL 1      5                        23    -18       56        

 COOLING                                                              
  TODAY            8                         4      4        3        
  MONTH TO DATE  124                        80     44       20        
  SINCE SEP 1    124                        80     44       20        
  SINCE JAN 1    939                       967    -28      874        
...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                            
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    12   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    NE (60)        
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    16   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    NE (50)        


SKY COVER                                                             
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                                 
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.8                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                    
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.                             
  RAIN                                                                
  LIGHT RAIN                                                          
  FOG                                                                 


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST   100           600 AM                                      
 LOWEST     88          1200 PM                                      
 AVERAGE    94                                                        

..........................................................


THE TOLEDO OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   78        96      1955                      
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   55        34      1959                      


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                    
SEPTEMBER 16 2026.....SUNRISE   717 AM EDT   SUNSET   743 PM EDT     
SEPTEMBER 17 2026.....SUNRISE   718 AM EDT   SUNSET   741 PM EDT     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

483 
FXUS63 KIND 161323
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
923 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures will continue at times into Saturday, especially
  south. Heat indices around 100 again today and Thursday.

- Scattered showers and storms today, but severe storms are not 
  expected

- Shower and storm chances persist for much of the time into
  next week, with temperatures turning cooler next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 923 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

A mid to low level trough with a weak low level jet is passing 
through the region today. Moisture advection within this LLJ is 
allowing more weakly forced convection and numerous showers with 
embedded thunder over the northern to mid Wabash Valley. This will 
continue to push E/NE throughout the morning with most of the I-69 
corridor and points to the NW getting rainfall. 

The residual airmass across the region will be rather unstable this 
afternoon and evening as convective temperatures are reached. The 
primary forcing is likely to be old outflow boundaries, of which 
will be the main area focus for additional convection later today. 
Generally speaking, the main hazards for this afternoon remains 
heavy rainfall and lightning, but a few cores may be large enough 
for an isolated damaging wind threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Early This Morning...

Energy riding around an upper high with help from a surface front 
has been generating convection from northern Missouri into the 
northern forecast area. Looking upstream, there may be a brief lull 
as convection remains just west and north of the area, but more will 
move in closer to sunrise. Outflow from the convection has reached 
the I-70 corridor, and this may spark an isolated shower in that 
area. Will continue with mainly chance PoPs from about I-70 north 
through 12Z.

Some gusty winds and heavy rain are possible, but odds of severe 
remain low given lessening instability.

Today...

Some stronger upper energy looks to bring showers and some storms to 
portions of the northern forecast area after 12Z, so will go with 
high chance to likely category PoPs there. Will keep chance PoPs 
south of this area this morning in case outflow is enough to trigger 
more isolated to scattered convection.

There looks to be less upper support this afternoon for convection, 
but with various old outflows in the area as well as the surface 
front, will go with at least slight chance PoPs most areas this 
afternoon. The far southern area may be far enough from outflow and 
close enough to the upper high to remain dry. Severe parameters look 
low enough that severe storms are not expected, but a gusty storm is 
possible. Locally heavy rain will remain a threat with a moist 
atmosphere.

Convection/clouds will help keep temperatures cooler across the 
northern forecast area, so went middle to upper 80s. The central 
forecast area looks more uncertain thanks to the questions about how 
much convection will be generated by outflows and the surface front. 
Will go lower 90s there. The south should still be able to reach the 
middle 90s. Heat indices will reach around 100 again this afternoon 
for much of the area.

Tonight and Thursday...

More energy riding around the slowly retreating upper high along 
with the old surface front will keep chances for convection around, 
mainly across the northern half of the area. Similar to today, 
clouds/convection Thursday will keep temperatures cooler north with 
hot conditions persisting south. Heat indices will remain around 100 
south during Thursday afternoon. 

Friday and beyond...

The upper high will continue to gradually retreat southwest. The 
surface front will sink far enough south initially to keep PoPs low 
on Friday, but it will return north again on Saturday as an upper 
wave interacts with the front. This will bring more rain chances, 
mainly north. 

After a brief reprieve from heat for many areas Friday, hot 
conditions return on Saturday as the front moves back north.

Sunday into next week, larger upper waves moving through will keep 
chances for rain around. Cooler air will filter back into the area, 
with highs by Tuesday in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 638 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Impacts:

- Convection will be around this morning, mainly at KLAF
- Additional isolated to scattered convection possible this 
  afternoon
- Variable winds at times
- MVFR possible at KLAF overnight tonight

Discussion:

Convection will continue to impact KLAF at times this morning as 
additional convection moves in from Illinois. Additional convection 
may develop from outflow out of these storms, which may be reach 
KHUF or KIND. However, confidence is low, so only used a VCSH for 
those.

This afternoon, more scattered convection may develop along old 
outflows and near a weak front across the area. Confidence is too 
low in details for anything other than a VCSH mention.

The presence of multiple outflow boundaries and the front will lead 
to variable winds at times today. Behind the front, MVFR ceilings 
and visibility may develop at KLAF overnight.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Updike
AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...50

539 
WWUS73 KLMK 151748
NPWLMK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Louisville KY
148 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>034-038-045-046-053-054-061>065-
070>077-081-161015-
/O.EXT.KLMK.HT.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-260918T0000Z/
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-
Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Spencer-
Nelson-Washington KY-Larue-Marion-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Cumberland-
Including the cities of Paoli, Elizabethtown, Salem, Franklin,
Hartford, Brownsville, Scottsville, Shelbyville, Edmonton,
Jeffersonville, English, Corydon, La Grange, Horse Cave,
Campbellsville, Leitchfield, Scottsburg, New Albany, Lebanon,
Hodgenville, Brandenburg, Bardstown, Louisville, Tompkinsville,
Milton, Burkesville, Hawesville, Tell City, Madison, Lewisport,
Taylorsville, Glasgow, Columbia, Bedford, Greensburg, New Castle,
Jasper, Morgantown, Russellville, Bowling Green, Providence,
Hardinsburg, Springfield, and Shepherdsville
148 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 /1248 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026/

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 105 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana and north central,
  northwest, and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
  illnesses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of
the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in
shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat
should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an
emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

BTN

499 
WWUS81 KILN 162117
SPSILN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
517 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026
 
OHZ042-162200-
Darke OH-
517 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN DARKE
COUNTY THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 517 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Greenville,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around 
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to 
         vegetation.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Arcanum, Wayne Lakes, Pitsburg, Union Corners, and
Abbottsville.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building. 

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4001 8466 4007 8470 4011 8467 4010 8443
      3997 8443
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 277DEG 14KT 4006 8460 

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

$$

McGinnis