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LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 11:37 AM CST ...New AVIATION...

673 
FXUS64 KLIX 171737
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1137 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 742 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Updating forecast to drop the coastal flood advisory from this
morning. The coastal flood advisory for tonight will continue
unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

The east coast sfc high is holding strong and will continue to do so 
over the next 24 to 36 hours. A cold front will start to develop 
over the southern foothills of the Rockies as well. The synoptic 
flow between these two will cause a deep fetch to set up in the wind 
field. This field will be found from the NW Caribbean through the 
entire gulf and into the southern US. Wind speeds over the gulf will 
begin to set up today and will eventually be at a constant speed of 
around 20-25kt across this fetch length. This part of the discussion 
may sound like it belongs in the marine section, but it has a lot to 
do with the coastal flood advisory/warnings that will be posted over 
the next few days. As this starts to set up today, it simply would 
not have the time to bring much higher water levels than what we are 
seeing this morning which means that we will stay with a coastal 
flood advisory for tonight and since the fetch will be over the 
entire northern gulf coast, we will also stretch this advisory out 
to include all coastal areas. Once this fetch and wind strength
maximize for a good 12+ hours, it will be fully capable of 
bringing even higher water levels to our shorelines. This would 
very likely tip us into coastal flood warnings for some coastal 
areas for Mon night. 

The second mid-upper level high is now developing its centroid 
over the gulf and this can be seen very well in sat imagery. This 
large deep high is moving east and as its western periphery moves 
over the western and central gulf, it will allow the deep tropical
moisture associated with what will be the remnants of Sara to 
begin flowing northward. This should start to occur late today or 
tonight. This moisture will stream into and ahead of the cold 
front that will be progressing toward our area Monday. This should
help some shower activity and maybe a few storms break out during
the day Monday. Rainfall rates and spatial residence will simply 
increase the remainder of the day Mon through Mon night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Tuesday we will see the cold front start to move into the western 
portion of our area by late morning to around noon pushing all this 
mess east. The heavy rainfall will be ongoing Tue until the front 
moves through each location and it should be leaving coastal 
Mississippi by sunset Tue. Rainfall totals could show a strong 
gradient over the area as timing of this deep moisture reacting with 
the front will make all the difference. This should occur over 
mainly coastal locations which could see 3 to 5 inches while areas 
in the NW sector of the areas see an inch or less. Another 
reinforcing front will move in behind this first front at a much 
higher speed by early Wed bringing the stronger dry cool air and 
higher NW wind speeds with it. If this front can get enough 
northerly flow over the entire gulf, it should be able to finally 
push water levels lower where the next return flow doesn't cause 
coastal flooding, but that is yet to be seen. These water levels are 
normally moving lower by the end of October or first part of 
November. High pressure will settle in and winds will weaken as we 
approach the weekend with overall good weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Moisture trapped under an inversion near 850 mb will continue to
produce areas of broken clouds between FL025-035 over the next 24
hours. Don't expect to see ceilings much below FL020 until very
close to 00z Tuesday, if that soon. Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots
should continue through about mid-morning Monday. As pressure
gradient tightens beyond that point, sustained winds will increase
to 15 to 20 knots at most terminals with occasional gusts above 25
knots. Any significant threat of TSRA is not expected until 00z
Tuesday or later.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Impacts well ahead of the next front could start as early as this 
evening as SErly wind speeds begin to reach advisory criteria. We 
will try to make this as efficient as possible since wind speeds 
will be higher overnight than during the day. So even as some marine 
areas fall below criteria for a few hours during the day, we will 
leave the orientation of headlines as is. Most of the sh/ts activity 
will begin to move through Monday. The remants of Sara will couple 
with a cold front bringing more widespread sh/ts activity as we move 
through the day Monday through Monday night and linger into Tue 
morning ahead of the cold front that should clear the northern gulf 
by Tue evening. NW winds will begin to rise to around 25-30kt on the 
back side of the front during the day Wed and remain through Wed 
night. Winds and seas will slowly settle through the end of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  61  80  69 /   0   0  10  90 
BTR  84  67  85  72 /   0   0  20  90 
ASD  80  65  82  72 /   0   0  20  80 
MSY  81  68  83  73 /   0   0  20  90 
GPT  77  67  80  70 /   0   0  10  80 
PQL  82  64  84  72 /   0   0  10  70 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday 
     for LAZ058-060-066>070-076>078-080-082-084-086-087.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday 
     for GMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday 
     for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday 
     for GMZ552-555-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...TE

Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 11:37 AM CST ...New AVIATION...

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Pitcairn [Allegheny Co, PA] Public reports Tstm Wnd Dmg at 5:14 PM EST -- Tree down on Broadway Boulevard in Pitcairn. Time estimated via radar.

880 
NWUS51 KPBZ 202320
LSRPBZ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
620 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Pitcairn                40.41N 79.78W
11/20/2024                   Allegheny          PA   Public           

            Tree down on Broadway Boulevard in Pitcairn. 
            Time estimated via radar. 


&&

$$

MLB

Source: Pitcairn [Allegheny Co, PA] Public reports Tstm Wnd Dmg at 5:14 PM EST -- Tree down on Broadway Boulevard in Pitcairn. Time estimated via radar.

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IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 6:15 PM EST

395 
FXUS63 KIWX 162315
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
615 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloud cover continues to keep us warmer at night, but a little
  cooler during the day through Sunday. Temperatures look to
  trend warmer by Tuesday with highs securely into the 60s.  

- Next best chance for rain arrives later Monday and continues
  into Tuesday.  

- Windy and cool conditions expected later next week as our next
  system arrives. Wintry precipitation is possible depending on
  the placement of the low pressure system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2024

As an upper low pressure system moves northward into Central Canada, 
it pushes a cold front east, into the area Sunday morning. The ECMWF 
does push its moisture plume into the area after 12z and there is a 
connection to the Gulf of Mexico. However, model time sections 
indicate there are areas of dryness in the low to mid levels 
that may create drizzle or virga as it comes through. Hedging 
towards nothing happening at this point, but future shifts will
want to watch for drizzle. An area of strung/sheared out 
vorticity on the southern side of the aforementioned upper low 
indicates the cold front stalling out. Given the lingering 
moisture and residual lift, cannot rule out more sprinkles or 
drizzle through the area, especially Sunday night. Have left 15 
PoPs in there to blend with neighbors. The cold front pushes 
through Monday morning allowing for peeks of sunshine. At the 
tail end of the strung out area of vorticity is an upper low 
that gets pushed northeastward Monday. This helps to push the 
aforementioned stalled boundary northward as a warm front. Low 
levels of the atmosphere are once again dry, leaving the chance 
for rain low during the day. Better forcing and columnar 
moisture finally arrives Monday afternoon/night just after 6z 
and the cold front pushes through Tuesday morning. A mid level 
dry slot likely shuts off rain Tuesday morning, but some 
sprinkles/drizzle could linger on. 

Behind this northeastward departing upper low, much cooler air 
filters into the Central United States and encroaches on our door 
step Wednesday. Meanwhile, the energy from the departing low 
combines with a trough moving eastward from the western US and a 
large upper low is created across the Central US. There is model 
confluence in creating a development surface low in the I-69 
corridor and, with cold air wrapping in, we could see some wintry 
precip across the area, especially at night. Given the
intricacies of the dance of the energy of the aformentioned 
pieces, it's hard to give any specifics, especially since model 
solutions have flip- flopped during this time period. Either 
way, the second half of next week looks cooler and windy.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2024

Low and mid level clouds have persisted throughout the day 
today and will remain overnight. GOES satellite imagery and
forecast soundings hint that a few breaks in the clouds may be
possible overnight, but that ceilings should remain on the high
end MVFR to low end VFR range. Winds will increase tomorrow
morning with gusts to 20 kts possible.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Johnson

Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 6:15 PM EST

---------------
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EVANSVILLE IN Nov 17 Climate Report: High: 69 Low: 41 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"

660 
CDUS43 KPAH 172230
CLIEVV

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
430 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024

...................................

...THE EVANSVILLE IN CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 17 2024...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0425 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1896 TO 2024


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         69    321 PM  80    1958  55     14       66       
                                      2016                           
  MINIMUM         41    709 AM  10    1959  36      5       45       
  AVERAGE         55                        46      9       56     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  TODAY            0.00          2.24 1906   0.14  -0.14     0.12     
  MONTH TO DATE    4.61                      2.25   2.36     0.12     
  SINCE SEP 1      9.63                      8.95   0.68     4.15     
  SINCE JAN 1     42.22                     42.27  -0.05    39.02     

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
  TODAY            0.0                                       0.0      
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                                       0.0      
  SINCE JUL 1      0.0                                       0.0      
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 

...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                            
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    15   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    SW (230)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    21   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SW (210)       


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST    93                                                        
 LOWEST     57                                                        

..........................................................


THE EVANSVILLE IN CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   55        78      2016                      
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   36         9      2014                      


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                    
NOVEMBER 17 2024......SUNRISE   634 AM CST   SUNSET   436 PM CST     
NOVEMBER 18 2024......SUNRISE   635 AM CST   SUNSET   436 PM CST     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

Source: EVANSVILLE IN Nov 17 Climate Report: High: 69 Low: 41 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"

---------------
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JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 3:33 PM EST

144 
FXUS63 KJKL 192033
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
333 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder temperatures arrive Wednesday night, and much of the area
  will likely see precipitation change over to snow at times 
  Thursday through Friday. 

- At this time, elevations above 2,000 feet are favored to receive
  impactful snow accumulations, primarily Thursday night into
  Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 332 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024

Active weather pattern setting up across the country over the next 
several days, as series of low pressure systems move through. The 
overall large scale pattern will start off with a ridge of high 
pressure situated just offshore of the southeastern part of the 
country, with a large trough moving through the northern Atlantic 
off the coast of southeast Canada. Meanwhile, another large trough 
of low pressure will be in place over southern Canada, and will be 
moving through the Great Lakes and into southern New England from 
Wednesday onward. This system will bring repeated rounds of rain to 
our area the next couple of days, as weak impulses rotate around it 
aloft. High pressure will fill the void behind the aforementioned 
low, and will bring a blast of much colder air into the region. 
Further west, a powerful and explosively intensifying storm system 
will be approaching the west coast, and will be moving onshore in 
the Pacific Northwest Friday and Friday. That system will pack lots 
of wind, rain, and mountains snows and is roars ashore.

The latest runs of the HRRR and NAMNEST models both have numerous 
rain showers moving through eastern Kentucky through early this 
evening, as a weak cold front, and an area of low pressure situated 
on the south end of the front, move slowly through the Ohio and 
Tennessee Valleys over the next several hours. Ongoing rain showers 
should slowly taper off late this afternoon into early this evening, 
before pausing briefly late tonight. By around dawn on Wednesday, a 
secondary, and much stronger, cold front is forecast to move through 
the region on Wednesday. This boundary will bring another round of 
rain to the area on Wednesday. The highest rain chances tomorrow 
should occur between roughly 16 and 22Z, as the cold front moves 
quickly through the region. Temperatures will warm up quickly during 
the first half of the day on Wednesday, ahead of the approaching 
front, but will most likely begin to fall again late in the 
afternoon/early evening time frame, as winds behind the front shift 
to the west or west northwest, and begin bringing much cooler air 
into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Any rain ahead of the front 
will steadily taper off late in the day on Wednesday, and should be 
out of the area by around 0Z Thursday.

After seeing lows in the 50s on Wednesday morning, a large 
temperature swing is on tap for Wednesday night, as a much colder 
air mass filters behind a departing cold front. In fact, Wednesday 
nights lows could fall into the mid 30s for most locations, or even 
a bit colder than that depending on how quickly skies clear off late 
Wednesday and Wednesday night. No weather hazards of note expected 
in the short term. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 548 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024

The 19/00z model suite is in good agreement at the beginning of the 
period. Multiple spokes of vorticity energy will be rotating 
around a deep ~532 dam closed low over Wisconsin on Wednesday 
evening. This system will be the dominant feature in our weather 
into Saturday. Meanwhile, a 500H ridge axis is found upstream of 
the low, initially extending from northwest Mexico to the along 
the Alberta-Saskatchewan border. Another sub-520 dam low is 
rotating over Pacific waters west of Vancouver Island/Olympic
Peninsula. At the surface, an occluding cold front sweeps out an 
arc from a sub-1000 mb low over Lake Huron and/or Erie down along 
the eastern slopes of the Central/Southern Appalachians to off the
Florida Gulf Coast. 

00z Thursday -- 00z Sunday... 

As the front occludes, a new triple point low develops near/over the 
Delmarva Peninsula Wednesday night and rapidly deepens into a 
sub-990 mb low as it lifts toward southern New England/southeast 
New York. Once this more powerful low takes shape early Thursday 
morning, the occluded low over the Great Lakes pinwheels to over 
Lake Superior and then undergoes cyclolosis as it drifts to the 
west side of its parent 500H low and into the Mid-Ohio Valley on 
Thursday night. Prior to the surface low's arrival, a particularly
potent vorticity lobe will sweep across the Ohio Valley during the
day on Thursday bringing a surge of cold air advection across 
eastern Kentucky during the day on Thursday. With 850mb temperatures
falling to near or below -6C, lapse rates will steepen while the 
low and mid-levels become more saturated, though more due to the 
cooling than moisture advection. Convective showers are likely to 
develop in this environment. While temperatures at lower 
elevations remain several degrees above freezing, dew points 
falling into the 20s will support surface wet bulb temperatures 
near freezing. Thus anticipate any stronger showers late Thursday 
morning and afternoon, though initially mixed with rain in 
valleys, will quickly switch to all snow/graupel due to wet-bulb 
cooling processes. Any daytime accumulations should be primarily 
confined to grassy/ elevated surfaces.

The more impactful period of precipitation comes Thursday night and 
early Friday with deeper moisture from the remnant surface low 
and a more northerly-oriented low-level fetch coming off of Lake 
Michigan. The combination of weak isentropic upglide from the 
remnant low into a moist dendritic growth zone as well as modest 
orographic uplift on a west to west-northwest flow should set the
stage for snowflakes to fall area-wide. Locations east of I-75 
are favored to be under the deeper moisture and thus have better 
chances for seeing measurable snowfall. Very warm ground 
temperatures and only marginally cold air temperatures at lower 
elevations (below ~2,000 feet) should keep minor accumulations 
largely confined to grassy/ elevated surface overnight. Conversely,
solidly sub-freezing air temperatures and orographically-enhanced
snowfall rates at those elevations around and above 2,000 feet 
could overcome warm pavement temperatures, allowing for a sloppy, 
slushy accumulation on untreated roadways. Due to uncertainty on 
the persistence of the deeper moisture, there is still a 
substantial range in the reasonable high/low end snow accumulation
totals over the higher elevations, ranging from less than an inch
in drier scenarios to as much as 4 or 5 inches in moister 
scenarios. If the current forecast hold, headlines will likely be 
needed for the higher elevations. Warmer air wrapping in from the 
north around the upper low (situated to our east by that time) 
will cause a gradually changeover back to all rain on Friday at 
lower elevations. Precipitation then slowly tapers off from west 
to east on Friday night and Saturday as the the upper level low 
pulls away in the Canadian Maritimes. Any additional snow 
accumulation from midday Friday onward will be minimal and 
confined to the highest elevations of Pine and Black Mountains.

In sensible terms, blustery and wintry conditions are in store
to start the long-term. After the cold frontal passage on 
Wednesday, a gusty westerly breeze will continue Wednesday night 
while temperatures fall into the middle 30s in the lowlands and 
lower 30s over the higher elevations. On Thursday, any morning 
sunshine will fade to clouds. Blustery showers are expected to 
increase through late morning and persist into the afternoon. 
Snow will be favored precipitation form though some rain or 
graupel cannot be ruled out in the valleys. Highs below 2,000 feet
will mainly be in the upper 30s to lower 40s but could drop 
quickly to near freezing in any heavier precipitation. Winds could
gusts to 30 mph or better at times. After a lull early Thursday 
evening, steadier snowfall is expected Thursday night into Friday 
morning, especially east of I-75, though a few periods of light 
snow are possible further west as well. At this point, 
accumulations are forecast to range from a trace to around an 
inch, primarily on grassy/elevated surfaces. At elevations above 
2,000 feet, accumulations could reasonably range from 1 to 5 
inches and lead to slippery travel on high-elevation roadways 
such as US-119 and KY-160. Temperatures on Thursday night dip to 
between 30 to 35F below 2,000 feet and into the mid to upper 20s 
above. Snow changes back over to rain at lower elevations on 
Friday before the precipitation slowly tapers off from west to 
east through early Saturday morning. Forecast highs range in the 
30s above 2,000 feet to the lower/middle 40s at lower elevations. 
Skies begin to clear from the southwest on Friday night yielding 
lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s over the Cumberland basin where
clouds thin up to the middle/upper 30s over the Big Sandy basin 
where clouds and precipitation linger. Partly to mostly sunny 
skies should gradually return on Saturday with highs in the 
mid/upper 40s. 
  
   
00z Sunday-Monday...

Surface high pressure becomes re-established over the Lower Ohio 
Valley on Saturday night as pieces of energy from the aforementioned 
Pacific low bombard and flatten upper level ridging aloft. By 
Sunday night, a cold front will be settling toward the Ohio Valley
from the northwest while deep southwesterly flow advects in Gulf 
moisture into the Commonwealth. Though timing is uncertain at this
juncture, this pattern will likely set the stage for one or more 
rounds of soaking rain next week. 

In sensible terms, partly cloudy skies and light winds on Saturday
night should set the stage for a hard freeze in the mid to upper 
20s outside of thermal belts and away from lakes. Warmer temperatures
and increasing clouds return Sunday and Monday with highs in the 
lower to mid 50s and mid 50s to lower 60s, respectively. Warm air 
advection could lead to a relatively large ridge-valley split on 
Sunday night, ranging in the 30s and 40s. Rain chances rise from
northwest to southeast on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024

VFR conditions prevailing across the forecast area at TAF
issuance, as we experience somewhat of a lull in what was
widespread rainfall earlier today. Based on the latest forecast
models, and upstream radar trends, it appears that rain showers
will begin filling in across eastern Kentucky between now and 20
21Z this afternoon. Once the rain begins again, we should see CIGs
lowering to MVFR or IFR levels at our airports. The next round of
rain, if the models are accurate, will last through around 1 or 2Z
this evening, before tapering off quickly overnight. The rain
should end by 8 or 9Z Wednesday. During the day on Thursday,
another incoming weather system is expected to bring rain and
continued low IFR CIGs to the area. These conditions should
steadily improve throughout the morning on Thursday, as a strong
cold front sweeps through the region. Cloud bases should raise to
1 to 2k by 15 or 16Z on Thursday. We will still see BKN to OVC
sky conditions as on Thursday as the front is moving through. As
for fog formation tonight, fairly widespread fog is expected
across the area, and could lead to IFR conditions for most
locations, with isolated instances of LIFR possible where more
rain fell today and temperatures stayed cooler than expected.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...AR

Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 3:33 PM EST

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