1
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 6, 12:33 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...148
FXUS64 KLIX 061733
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025
Weak upper ridging has retreated westward and a second upper
ridge has built across the western Atlantic. This has left an
overall weakness/weak troughing in the upper levels across the
local area and will lead to a typical summertime convective
pattern with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. Currently seeing isolated convective cells popping up
across land areas, and activity should become more scattered
through the remainder of this afternoon. Convection should
quickly diminish near or shortly after sunset as the instability
associated with daytime heating similarly wanes.
The main convective threats today and tomorrow will be gusty
winds and periods of locally heavy rainfall. While organized
severe weather isn't likely, the environment looks supportive of
wind gusts generally in the 30 to 40 mph range, with one or two
storms possibly becoming severe, mainly across areas nearer the
Atchafalaya River. Precipitable water values are not out of the
ordinary for this time of year - sitting around 1.5-1.8 inches -
but slow storm motions could still lead to localized accumulations
of 1-2" in a short-ish period of time.
Temperatures will continue to be near to slightly above normal
with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s and daytime highs in
the low to mid 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025
Longer term forecast is generally one of persistence as the local
area remains situated between two upper highs located over the
southwestern CONUS and western Atlantic. Some of the minutiae will
change from day to day, but for the most part, expect scattered to
numerous showers and storms each day staring to fire across land
areas during the late morning, peaking in the afternoon, and
diminishing in the evening. Fairly typical temperatures will also
continue with lows in the mid to upper 70s and highs in the low to
mid 90s.
During the second half of the week, deep moisture will increase
across the area with precipitable water forecast to be near or
just above 2 inches across most of the area. This should lead to
a further increase in convective coverage with storms becoming
more numerous to widespread Wednesday through Friday. The increase
in moisture will also lead to potential for more efficient
rainfall. While widespread heavy rain is not forecast, individual
storms will be capable of producing high rainfall rates with a
couple inches of accumulation in a relatively short period of
time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025
Outside of any convective impacts, VFR conditions will prevail
through the period. Isolated showers and storms have begun popping
up across land areas and should become more scattered as the
afternoon progresses. Have included PROB30 groups at all terminals
to account for variable wind directions and lower vis associated
with storms. For now have included MVFR conditions, but if a
heavier storm moves over any of the terminals, a brief period of
IFR conditions cannot be ruled out. Convection should wane around
or shortly after 00z, with benign conditions overnight and a
repeat of similar conditions tomorrow.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025
Marine conditions will be benign through the period outside of
any localized impacts from convection. Winds will take on a more
onshore direction this afternoon and that will persist through
the work week generally ranging from southerly to southwesterly.
A fairly typical summertime convective pattern is expected with
showers and storms developing during the late night, peaking
during the morning hours, and diminishing through the afternoon
and evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 92 71 93 / 30 60 10 40
BTR 73 93 74 93 / 40 70 10 50
ASD 72 93 73 93 / 20 60 10 40
MSY 77 93 77 93 / 20 70 10 50
GPT 75 91 75 92 / 10 50 10 40
PQL 72 92 73 93 / 10 40 10 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 6, 12:33 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
2
National Hurricane Center issues ADVISORY 8 for TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL371
WTNT33 KNHC 061436
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025
...CHANTAL MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES AS RAINBANDS MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 79.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF LUMBERTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal
was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 79.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast
is expected this evening and that motion should continue into
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected
to move over eastern North Carolina through tonight.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
24 hours, and the system is expected to degenerate into a trough of
low pressure on Monday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Chantal will continue to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of central North Carolina into Monday.
Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6
inches, is expected. An elevated risk for flash flooding will
continue.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible today over parts
of eastern North Carolina.
SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are expected
to continue at beaches along the U.S. east coast from northeastern
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Chantal. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 500 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Source: National Hurricane Center issues ADVISORY 8 for TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
3
PBZ issues Patchy Fog will Reduce Visibility this Morning for Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton, Guernsey, Harrison, Jefferson, Monroe, Muskingum, Noble, Tuscarawas [OH] and Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Fayette, Fayette Ridges, Forest, Greene, Higher Elevations of Indiana, Indiana, Jefferson, Lawrence, Mercer, Venango, Washington, Westmoreland, Westmoreland Ridges [PA] and Brooke, Eastern Preston, Eastern Tucker, Hancock, Marion, Marshall, Monongalia, Ohio, Preston, Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston, Western Tucker, Wetzel [WV] till 8:30 AM EDT161
WWUS81 KPBZ 100804
SPSPBZ
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
404 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-
031-073>078-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-101230-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-
Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-
Fayette-Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana-
Higher Elevations of Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton,
Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Coshocton, Cadiz,
Steubenville, Zanesville, Cambridge, Martins Ferry,
St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Sharon, Hermitage,
Grove City, Oil City, Franklin, Tionesta, New Castle,
Ellwood City, Butler, Clarion, Punxsutawney, Brookville,
Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area,
Kittanning, Ford City, Washington, Canonsburg, Waynesburg,
Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Lower Burrell, Latrobe,
Monessen, Ligonier, Donegal, Uniontown, Champion, Ohiopyle,
Indiana, Armagh, Weirton, Follansbee, Wellsburg, Wheeling,
Moundsville, New Martinsville, Fairmont, Morgantown,
Coopers Rock, Kingwood, Bruceton Mills, Terra Alta, Rowlesburg,
Hazelton, Parsons, Hendricks, Saint George, Davis, Thomas,
and Canaan Valley
404 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
...Patchy Fog will Reduce Visibility this Morning...
Patchy fog is expected across the region this morning. Some of
the fog will be locally dense, reducing visibility to a quarter of
a mile or less in some locations. Use caution if traveling, and
be alert for rapidly changing visibility, slow down, and use your
low beam headlights when encountering dense fog.
$$
Source: PBZ issues Patchy Fog will Reduce Visibility this Morning for Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton, Guernsey, Harrison, Jefferson, Monroe, Muskingum, Noble, Tuscarawas [OH] and Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Fayette, Fayette Ridges, Forest, Greene, Higher Elevations of Indiana, Indiana, Jefferson, Lawrence, Mercer, Venango, Washington, Westmoreland, Westmoreland Ridges [PA] and Brooke, Eastern Preston, Eastern Tucker, Hancock, Marion, Marshall, Monongalia, Ohio, Preston, Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston, Western Tucker, Wetzel [WV] till 8:30 AM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
4
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 2 Slight Convective Risk at Jul 11, 7:10z for portions of CLE851
WUUS02 KWNS 110711
PTSDY2
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
VALID TIME 121200Z - 131200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 2
... TORNADO ...
0.02 42188220 40948329 40368387 39898450 39318532 39368610
39938634 40828581 41928531 43778411 44248277 44218175
&&
... HAIL ...
0.05 31200689 33290678 35660666 38220648 39560608 39890519
39610402 38190363 36810306 35640258 34300242 34400099
35420051 36619954 37209723 37699588 38449338 39969096
41068997 41878985 43418983 45449002 47028977 48478946
99999999 42808066 40308151 38318374 36238963 34989337
33539630 32499778 31539923 30260096 29330188
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 42808066 40308151 38318374 36238963 34989337 33539630
32499778 31539923 30260096 29330188 99999999 31200689
33290678 35660666 38220648 39560608 39890519 39630403
38680372 37670225 37440021 37509816 37839606 38449338
39969096 41068997 41878985 43418983 45449002 47028977
48478946
0.15 42408189 41628238 40398341 40028490 40378573 42278528
43668477 45068388 46348297
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 2
... CATEGORICAL ...
SLGT 42408189 41628238 40398341 40028490 40378573 42278528
43668477 46288301
MRGL 42808066 40308151 38318374 34989337 33539630 30260096
29330188 99999999 31290689 38220648 39560608 39890519
39630403 38680372 37670225 37440021 37509816 37839606
38449338 39969096 41068997 41878985 43418983 45449002
48478946
TSTM 46617055 44407060 42467193 41597294 40547413 39337502
38567596 37757616 36457500 99999999 27629588 27689783
29660029 29860082 29360146 99999999 31021059 32440986
33291003 34241128 34831142 35031025 34910943 36440872
38140877 40350796 41420628 41640465 41130286 40260248
39300233 38740179 38539967 39269682 41049421 42599256
45419182 47239211 49119383
&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE
MTC 30 WNW CLE 40 NW CMH 30 ESE MIE 20 WNW MIE 15 ENE AZO 35 WNW MBS
65 E ANJ.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW
ERI 30 NE ZZV 50 ENE LEX 25 SW RUE 25 ESE GYI 60 N DRT 55 SSE 6R6
...CONT... 45 SW ELP 30 SE GUC 45 E EGE 20 WNW DEN 30 NW LIC 40 S
LIC 35 NE SPD 25 SSW DDC 25 ENE P28 35 WNW CNU 20 SSE SZL 15 E UIN
30 NNW PIA 45 NE MLI 20 NE LNR 30 WSW RHI 65 NE GNA.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 120 W CAR 35 ESE BML
15 N ORH 30 SW BDL 10 S EWR 25 WSW ACY 30 WNW SBY 40 SSE NHK 65 E
ECG ...CONT... 80 SSE PSX 15 ESE ALI 45 ENE DRT 35 N DRT 35 W DRT
...CONT... 40 SSW FHU 30 SSW SAD 40 NW SAD 65 SSW INW 25 SSE FLG 25
E INW 55 NE SOW 35 SW FMN 55 WSW MTJ 25 WSW CAG 35 WNW LAR 35 NNE
CYS SNY 40 E AKO ITR 45 S GLD 50 WSW RSL 10 NW MHK 35 NNW LWD 10 WNW
ALO 40 NNW EAU 30 N DLH 40 NNW INL.
Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 2 Slight Convective Risk at Jul 11, 7:10z for portions of CLE--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
5
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 2:01 AM EDT593
FXUS63 KIWX 100601
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
201 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry for the rest of the overnight with potential of patchy fog
development. The fog may be locally dense.
- There is a Moderate Swim Risk for southeast Lake Michigan
beaches this morning.
- Hot and humid by the weekend with chances for rain/storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025
A cold front is located from Grand Rapids southwest towards Des
Moines, and it will slowly sink south and east this afternoon and
evening. Ahead of the front, destabilization is already occurring
across our forecast area. A growing cumulus field is evident on
visible satellite imagery and showers have been percolating
throughout the area already today. Because of cloud cover across
much of the area, temperatures have struggled to get out of the 70s
today. Scattered multicell clusters of showers and a few storms are
ongoing east of IN 49, while a lake shadow is keeping conditions dry
along the lakeshore. Additional diurnally driven showers and storms
will be possible until sunset. Much like setups over the past few
weeks, it will be feast or famine for storms. Some locations may get
nothing while others get several inches of rain in a short amount of
time. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for the far northeast portion of the forecast area,
meaning a few storms could be strong to severe today. The setup for
severe weather appears fairly unimpressive as there is ample
instability for storms to work with (2000-2500 J/kg SBCAPE), but no
source of lift (until the front arrives) and little to no shear in
place as vertical wind profiles are unidirectional out of the
southwest. Confidence in severe weather is very low. Given ample low
level moisture (dewpoints in the 70s) and high PWATs of 1.5-1.75",
flooding is a much more likely scenario today than severe weather.
Backbuilding will be possible with low level low from the
west/southwest parallel to the boundary and slow Corfidi upshear
winds. Precipitation rates should be very efficient today given
long, skinny CAPE profiles, a deep warm cloud layer, and PWATs
above the 75th percentile of normal. WPC has much of the area in
a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for localized flash flooding,
which definitely is plausible given the favorable environment.
Additionally, there is a High Swim Risk for southeastern Lake
Michigan beaches today through early Thursday. As winds switch from
the southwest to northwest/north along the lakeshore behind the cold
front, waves will build to 3 to 4 feet. Strong rip, structural, and
longshore currents will all be possible, especially on the north
side of piers. Stay out of the water!
winds will shift to be coming from the northwest after the front
passes through and skies will start to clear out. Forecast soundings
show an inversion developing tonight as well as a stable airmass
moves in. With mostly clear skies, light winds, and residual ground
moisture, patchy ground fog may develop Thursday morning. Confidence
is medium in fog developing, but low as to the extent of visibility
impacts. Thursday will be dry as high pressure briefly builds into
the Upper Great Lakes region for 24-36 hours.
An upper level ridge expands across the southwest and central US
this week and progresses eastward. Heat and humidity will build
across the Midwest as the upper level ridges expands and WAA
increases later in the week. Depending on where the periphery of
the ridge sets up and how much destabilization occurs, we could
see some showers/storms on Friday. Better chances for
rain/storms arrive by the weekend as another cold front moves
through, although long term models disagree on exact timing and
positioning.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
A weak sfc cool front has become more diffuse across extreme NE
Indiana/NW Ohio early this morning. Residual low level moisture
and near sfc moisture source from yesterday's rainfall will
likely yield a zone of most preferred fog formation immediately
in the wake of this low level front from west central Indiana
through KFWA vicinity extending into NW Ohio. Have maintained
previous TEMPO IFR mention at KFWA in the 10Z-13Z timeframe,
with a potential of some shorter-lived vsby restrictions at
KSBN. A weak intrusion of low level dry air behind the front
should limit the overall potential at KSBN. Mainly dry
weather is expected through the remainder of the period, with
VFR conditions prevailing.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 1 AM CDT early this morning for
INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
MIZ177-277.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 2:01 AM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
6
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 2 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 10, 17:30z for portions of IND253
WUUS02 KWNS 101731
PTSDY2
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
VALID TIME 111200Z - 121200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 2
... TORNADO ...
0.02 39399576 40459479 41499395 42519154 43098960 43278802
43588542 43518246 42958226 41928263 41628352 41458471
41048792 40468978 39649174 39269285 38869409 38789529
39399576
&&
... HAIL ...
0.05 48739101 47209166 45449318 43189566 42029829 40469949
39810085 39470169 38740219 38150214 38000150 38420048
39039907 40009751 41389429 42588988 43278633 43438480
43548397 43298350 42878332 42128400 41508578 41088742
40708890 39759230 38819487 37769674 36759871 36729876
34910100 34140273 32450326 31990370 31990451 32720496
33880521 35500502 36490482 38450542 39950582 41590625
42190633 42430565 42020357 41850164 42190040 44359945
45369891 46549779 48009639 49609611
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 30740637 31460540 32090522 33580512 34990506 36480472
38430480 40010540 41190544 41680492 41920384 41570174
42020030 43089987 45159841 47099670 49619426 99999999
48769007 47309157 46399141 45139181 44049314 42299532
41809544 42469322 43428968 43738702 43818370 43428197
42488148 41298159 40908431 40408698 39088961 37749345
36689718 35509960 33590220 31900338 30400418 28890435
0.05 41017587 39947730 38997776 36447857 35707903 34508011
33138054 32708075 32588139 32698177 34098343 35158343
36868184 37228078 37748025 38717961 39907882 41527786
42767629 43267235 42987170 42547169 42037196 41567349
41177481 41017587
0.15 38899627 40109544 41259363 42119180 42778864 42848733
43148392 42938275 42548253 41858304 41568394 41388582
40838768 40138959 39589119 38949309 38629429 38899627
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 2
... CATEGORICAL ...
SLGT 40109544 41259363 42119180 42778864 43148392 42938275
42548253 41858304 41568394 41388582 40838768 38949309
38629429 38899627 40109544
MRGL 35158343 36868184 37228078 37748025 39907882 41527786
42767629 43267235 42987170 42547169 42037196 41177481
41017587 39947730 38997776 36447857 35707903 34508011
33138054 32708075 32588139 32698177 34098343 35158343
MRGL 48569027 47309157 46399141 45139181 42299532 41809544
43428968 43738702 43818370 43428197 42488148 41298159
40908431 40408698 39088961 37749345 36689718 35509960
33590220 31900338 30400418 29010434 99999999 30890617
31460540 32090522 33490513 33880521 35500502 36490482
39950582 41590625 42190633 42430565 42020357 41850164
42190040 44359945 45369891 48009639 49489613
TSTM 43248021 42458014 43127870 43297802 43337667 43617610
44867599 99999999 46156661 44846900 43777048 42727102
41647127 40787279 40277388 39537426 38777391 99999999
48868756 47318828 45858857 45198860 44868677 46188524
46938372 99999999 27279609 28309769 29559859 30399821
31509588 32559349 33899283 36759300 35809475 34879715
34049890 32040222 31020269 28860251 99999999 30871184
31881174 32621120 32791029 32430863 32540772 33210634
34910615 36520629 37170787 38140844 39620848 40790834
41890941 43471123 44851052 44940867 45510749 47080268
47840100 48330136 48680293 49560395
&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
FNB 20 S DSM 15 NNW CID 20 ENE JVL 15 NW FNT 25 N MTC 15 ESE MTC 30
SSE DTW TOL 35 SE SBN 45 N DNV 30 ENE SZL 30 ESE OJC 25 SE MHK 10
ENE FNB.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW
AVL 40 NE TRI 10 NW PSK SSU 40 SW AOO 45 ESE BFD 20 NNE ITH 25 N EEN
20 SSW CON 20 NNE ORH 15 SSW ORH 35 S MSV 25 SSW AVP 30 NE HGR 30
SSE MRB 35 WSW AVC 20 SW RDU 30 NW FLO 30 SE OGB 45 WSW CHS 35 NNW
SAV 50 SSE AGS 10 NNW AHN 55 WSW AVL.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N
GNA 10 NW BFW 25 WSW ASX 25 NW EAU 20 N DNS 15 SSW DNS 25 NW MSN 45
SE MTW 25 NE MBS 55 ESE BAX 70 E MTC 15 SE CLE 35 WSW FDY LAF 25 ENE
ALN 35 N SGF PNC 25 WNW CSM 25 WSW LBB 15 NW INK 10 WNW MRF 95 SSW
MRF ...CONT... 65 S ELP 45 SW GDP 30 NW GDP 25 E SRR 30 ESE 4CR 15
SE LVS 25 SW RTN 50 WNW DEN 35 WNW LAR 50 S CPR 25 SSW DGW 10 N BFF
30 WSW MHN 35 SW ANW 40 N 9V9 25 WSW ABR 10 WSW TVF 50 NNW ROX.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WNW BUF 25 N ERI
15 N BUF 20 WNW ROC 30 WNW SYR 25 S ART 55 W MSS ...CONT... 55 E HUL
10 WNW BGR 10 NW PWM 25 N BOS 10 SE PVD 15 E ISP 25 SSW JFK 20 ENE
ACY 60 SE ACY ...CONT... 125 NNE CMX 15 NE CMX 20 W IMT 50 SSW IMT
50 NNW MBL 45 WSW ANJ 45 NE ANJ ...CONT... 95 ESE CRP NIR SAT 30 WNW
AUS 45 SE CRS 20 ENE SHV 45 SSE HOT 35 NNE HRO 35 WSW FYV 40 N ADM
25 WNW SPS MAF 15 ENE FST 85 SSW 6R6 ...CONT... 100 SSW TUS 50 WSW
TUS 40 NNW TUS 40 W SAD 30 WSW SVC 20 N DMN 30 NNW ALM 25 ESE ABQ 50
NE 4SL DRO 40 SW MTJ 35 N GJT 50 WNW CAG 25 NW RKS 25 WSW JAC 30 ENE
WEY 35 NNE COD 55 ESE BIL 20 NNE DIK 25 ENE N60 MOT 45 NE ISN 95 N
ISN.
Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 2 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 10, 17:30z for portions of IND--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
7
PAH issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Jul 10, 3:55 AM CDT677
FLUS43 KPAH 100855
HWOPAH
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
355 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025
ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-110900-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
355 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 /455 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025/
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 8 AM CDT for parts of
southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. Refer
to the Advisory for more details.
There is a small chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly
over western Kentucky and southwest Indiana.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday
A daily chance of scattered to numerous thunderstorms returns to
the forecast beginning Saturday and looks to continue through
Wednesday. While widespread severe weather or flash flood is not
expected, isolated gusty winds and torrential downpours are
possible.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated.
$$
DWS
Source: PAH issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Jul 10, 3:55 AM CDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
8
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 11, 1:31 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...982
FXUS63 KLMK 110531
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
131 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A few stray showers are possible mainly east of I-65 for the rest
of the afternoon. Patchy fog will be possible early Friday
morning.
* Warm and humid conditions continue into the weekend, with
additional shower and storm chances for Saturday and especially
Sunday as a cold front approaches the area. Severe weather is
not expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
Scattered cu field has blossomed over the region this afternoon,
with temps warming into the 80s for most, and low 90s for SDF. A few
isolated pop-up showers are observed by radar, though the lack of
deep layer shear and weak lapse rates have kept convection from
growing. A few more isolated showers are possible this afternoon,
but with no real trigger in place, and the upper shortwave shifting
to our east, coverage will be very localized, and most of the region
will remain dry.
For tonight, less cloud coverage is expected, along with lighter
winds and lingering low level moisture. Patchy fog may develop
before sunrise due to good radiational cooling.
For tomorrow, zonal flow will be centered over the Ohio Valley,
resulting in another day with no strong trigger to fire off
convection. Still can't rule out an isolated chance in the
afternoon, mainly for KY, but coverage should be minimal, and just
about all of the region is expected to remain dry. Temps peak in the
lower 90s tomorrow, with heat indices expected to remain in the
upper 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
===== Saturday - Monday =====
Upper level troughing over the central US will support a sfc low to
track across the Great Lakes over the weekend. An associated cold
front will stretch across the Midwest, providing a better forcing
mechanism for increasing precip coverage over the forecast area.
While precip chances exist for Saturday, the overall best chances
will come Sunday afternoon as the front begins to approach the
region. SBCAPE exceeding 200 J/kg will be possible due to sfc
heating temps up to the low 90s, with dewpoints reaching the mid 70s
possible. PWATs nearing 2 inches will be possible leading to heavy
rain and thunderstorm chances. Shear parameters continue to appear
weak and unidirectional in model soundings, so severe weather
chances appear low at this time. Still can't rule out some stronger
storms, capable of strong wind gusts and lightning, but torrential
downpours will be main hazard.
The front may not make it through the forecast area until Monday,
and the upper shortwave may be taking its time to shift east of the
area. This will promote additional PoPs for Monday. With the front
possibly bisecting the CWA, higher rain chances will be focused
south of the KY Parkways.
The warmest temps of the weekend are expected on Saturday, with
highs possibly hitting the mid 90s. With muggy dewpoints in the low
to mid 70s, that should yield heat indices around 100F during Sat
afternoon.
===== Tuesday - Wednesday =====
Brief upper ridging to our south may extend over the lower Ohio
Valley by Tuesday and Wednesday. As mentioned in the prior
discussion, being on the northern periphery of the ridge could
subject us to continued diurnally driven shower and storm chances.
Will continue with a lower confidence forecast for the end of the
period regarding PoPs. However, given the ridging pattern, we may
end up having the warmest temps of the period on Wednesday, with
temps possibly reaching the mid 90s. Will be something to keep an
eye on, as that could yield some heat indices over 100F.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Quiet night across the area with dry conditions only a few-sct mid
level clouds at times. Any gradient winds will be light out of the
SSW or SW, but could also see periods of calm. The fog signal isn't
strong enough at the TAF sites to advertise much, but will monitor
obs/trends through the early morning hours. Otherwise, look for
steady SSW to SW winds later today with Sct cumulus developing
around 5-6 k feet through the afternoon. Perhaps a stray shower or t-
storm but coverage/confidence not high enough to include any mention
for direct impact at TAF sites.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...BJS
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 11, 1:31 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
9
JKL issues Flood Advisory for Floyd, Knott, Pike [KY] till Jul 10, 9:30 PM EDT371
WGUS83 KJKL 102218
FLSJKL
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Jackson KY
618 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
KYC071-119-195-110130-
/O.NEW.KJKL.FA.Y.0127.250710T2218Z-250711T0130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Floyd KY-Knott KY-Pike KY-
618 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
* WHAT...Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive
rainfall is expected.
* WHERE...A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following
counties, Floyd, Knott and Pike.
* WHEN...Until 930 PM EDT.
* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 617 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream
flooding. Between 0.5 and 1.75 inches of rain is estimated to
have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of up to 1.5 inches are in the
advisory area. This additional rain will result in minor
flooding.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Pikeville, Estill, Coal Run Village, Wayland, Osborn,
Boldman, Grethel, Harold, Aluba, Coal Run, Betsy Layne,
Galveston, Justell, Honaker, Craynor, Blue Moon, Dana, Ivel,
East McDowell and McDowell.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
LAT...LON 3757 8272 3761 8266 3760 8240 3744 8243
3739 8249 3741 8283 3752 8284
$$
JP
Source: JKL issues Flood Advisory for Floyd, Knott, Pike [KY] till Jul 10, 9:30 PM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
10
HEAT WARNING, Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara RegionIssued: 10:28 AM EDT Saturday 12 July 2025 Source: HEAT WARNING, Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara Region--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
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