1
National Hurricane Center issues ADVISORY 2A for TROPICAL STORM JERRY INTERMEDIATE603
WTNT35 KNHC 072335
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
800 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025
...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 47.5W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, amd Montserrat.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 47.5 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A decrease in forward
speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the system is
expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands
late Thursday and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to
become a hurricane in a day or so.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday, where Tropical
Storm Watches have been issued.
RAINFALL: On Thursday, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the
Leeward Islands due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a risk of flash
flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_al5.shtml?rainqpf
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Source: National Hurricane Center issues ADVISORY 2A for TROPICAL STORM JERRY INTERMEDIATE--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
2
National Hurricane Center issues ADVISORY 11 for TROPICAL STORM JERRY381
WTNT35 KNHC 100252
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025
...JERRY NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AS IT PASSES BY JUST EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 61.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and St. Eustatius
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located by Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 18.2
North, longitude 61.6 West. Jerry is moving toward the northwest
near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a
gradual slowdown on Friday followed by a turn northward Friday night
into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will pass
just east of the northern Leeward Islands tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through tomorrow, but slow
strengthening is possible over the weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is
1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area tonight and Friday morning.
RAINFALL: Through Friday, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected across
the island of Barbuda. Elsewhere across the Leeward and Virgin
Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall brings a
risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep
terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry
combined with local orographic effects may result in up to 2 to 4
inches of rain, with isolated 6 inches possible.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service storm
total rainfall graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells
are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles over
the next couple of days, are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: National Hurricane Center issues ADVISORY 11 for TROPICAL STORM JERRY--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
3
WHEELING WV Oct 12 Climate Report: High: 66 Low: 49 Precip: Trace Snow: Missing758
CDUS41 KPBZ 130533
CLIHLG
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
133 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
...................................
...THE WHEELING WV CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 12 2025...
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1878 TO 2025
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 66 246 PM 83 1928 65 1 71
1938
MINIMUM 49 607 AM 24 1906 46 3 52
AVERAGE 58 56 2 62
PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY T 1.50 1885 0.10 -0.10 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 0.62 1.13 -0.51 0.42
SINCE SEP 1 3.48 4.34 -0.86 2.08
SINCE JAN 1 27.29 30.60 -3.31 25.28
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
YESTERDAY 7 10 -3 3
MONTH TO DATE 50 97 -47 59
SINCE SEP 1 77 180 -103 77
SINCE JUL 1 98 190 -92 85
COOLING
YESTERDAY 0 1 -1 0
MONTH TO DATE 8 12 -4 4
SINCE SEP 1 113 96 17 171
SINCE JAN 1 1010 778 232 1220
...................................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 20 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NE (60)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 24 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NE (60)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 7.9
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.6
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 93 700 AM
LOWEST 65 300 PM
AVERAGE 79
..........................................................
THE WHEELING WV CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 65 83 1947
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 46 25 1939
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
OCTOBER 13 2025.......SUNRISE 731 AM EDT SUNSET 645 PM EDT
OCTOBER 14 2025.......SUNRISE 733 AM EDT SUNSET 644 PM EDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: WHEELING WV Oct 12 Climate Report: High: 66 Low: 49 Precip: Trace Snow: Missing--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
4
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 3:28 AM EDT475
FXUS61 KCLE 140728
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
328 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A primarily dry cold front will cross the area tonight. High
pressure will then build behind the front on Wednesday and
persist through the end of the week. A warm front will lift
north through the area Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Outside of a primarily dry cold frontal passage tonight into
Wednesday morning, generally quiet weather is expected for the
near term period as high pressure builds behind the front on
Wednesday.
For this morning, beginning to see signs of fog develop on
satellite along and west of the I-71 corridor across Northwest
Ohio. This area of fog is supported by multiple HREF members and
would appear to linger perhaps into mid-morning if it can continue
to become established over the next couple of hours. Otherwise,
a cold front will move south across the area tonight into Wednesday
morning, though the current guidance favors this to be a generally
dry front with limited available low- level moisture.
High pressure will build south across the Great Lakes on
Wednesday behind the front, with temperatures falling slightly
below average in the low to mid-60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The main concern for the short term period will be the potential
for frost/freeze conditions Wednesday and Thursday night,
particularly along and east of the I-71 corridor as high
pressure continues to expand south and east across the region.
Otherwise, mainly quiet and dry weather is expected for much of the
short term period. A warm front will lift north through the
region Friday night which may result in scattered rain showers,
especially across the northern half of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A more active weather pattern will develop for the long term
period as a low pressure system sweeps east through the Great
Lakes on Saturday into Sunday, bringing much-needed widespread
rain to the region.
Widespread rain and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms are
most likely to arrive Saturday night into Sunday as a large
upper-level trough moves east through the Upper Great Lakes,
extending a cold front across the area. Forecast confidence for
timing is medium-high given the upper-level model consensus.
Forecast uncertainty begins to increase later Sunday and beyond
as the upper-level pattern begins to become more chaotic in
terms of the upper-level trough becoming negatively or
positively tilted. A cooler air mass is ultimately expected to
arrive behind the front on Monday with seasonably-cool
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s and a modest westerly
breeze of 15 to 20 mph.
Above-average temperatures will arrive ahead of the weekend
system, with highs reaching the upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s
in some spots across Northwest Ohio. Temperatures are not
expected to near record- highs at this time which currently sit
in the mid-80s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure to the northeast continues to allow for no active
weather across the region. Low level moisture will remain
trapped in Northwest Ohio and non-VFR mist and fog will once
again form in the region. The flow off Lake Erie is a touch more
northerly and will allow for fog potential to be more
widespread for KTOL and KFDY and possibly even KMFD later this
morning - will continue to hit the IFR and LIFR potential with
some dense fog expected near daybreak. MVFR ceilings continue to
creep across NW PA and far NE OH thanks to low level moisture
extending northwest from the system off the East Coast. This
system will slowly depart to the east today and MVFR will adjust
eastward by late morning. Otherwise, VFR will be expected for
this afternoon and beyond with light northeast flow and some
afternoon cumulus possible ahead of a cold front.
Outlook...VFR expected before periods of rain showers with non-
VFR on Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Overall, marine weather conditions will be fairly quiet this week.
High pressure pressure is in control of the weather pattern. For the
rest of this afternoon and tonight, northeast winds of 5 to 15 knots
are expected and waves 1 to 3 feet. A weak cold front will slide
across Lake Erie on Tuesday. Winds will be from the northeast 10 to
15 knots and waves of 1 to 3 feet on Tuesday. There will be a slight
uptick in winds and waves Tuesday night with northeast winds 10 to
20 knots and waves 2 to 5 feet possible. A Small Craft Advisory may
be needed Tuesday night for the central and eastern nearshore water.
Winds will relax from the north and northeast Wednesday and Thursday
5 to 15 knots and waves of 1 to 3 feet. By Friday, winds will shift
around from the south 5 to 15 knots and waves of 1 to 2 feet.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...77
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 3:28 AM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
5
FORT WAYNE Oct 11 Climate Report: High: 69 Low: 45 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing068
CDUS43 KIWX 112031
CLIFWA
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
431 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
...................................
...THE FORT WAYNE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 11 2025...
VALID AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1897 TO 2025
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 69 228 PM 88 1928 66 3 82
MINIMUM 45 626 AM 24 1906 44 1 42
1964
AVERAGE 57 55 2 62
PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.00 2.27 1949 0.10 -0.10 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 0.06 1.06 -1.00 T
SINCE SEP 1 1.04 4.10 -3.06 1.42
SINCE JAN 1 20.14 32.16 -12.02 28.99
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
TODAY 8 10 -2 3
MONTH TO DATE 48 95 -47 52
SINCE SEP 1 95 189 -94 74
SINCE JUL 1 119 200 -81 82
COOLING
TODAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 24 10 14 2
SINCE SEP 1 127 96 31 140
SINCE JAN 1 996 847 149 1004
...................................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 14 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NE (40)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 17 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NE (40)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 5.9
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.4
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 86 700 AM
LOWEST 35 200 PM
AVERAGE 61
..........................................................
THE FORT WAYNE CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 66 87 2008
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 44 25 1906
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
OCTOBER 11 2025.......SUNRISE 748 AM EDT SUNSET 706 PM EDT
OCTOBER 12 2025.......SUNRISE 749 AM EDT SUNSET 704 PM EDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: FORT WAYNE Oct 11 Climate Report: High: 69 Low: 45 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
6
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 6 15% Any Severe Convective Risk at Oct 13, 8:58z for portions of IND253
WUUS48 KWNS 130900
PTSD48
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
VALID TIME 161200Z - 211200Z
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 4
... ANY SEVERE ...
&&
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 5
... ANY SEVERE ...
&&
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 6
... ANY SEVERE ...
0.15 32749386 32929497 33399586 34129601 35349575 36419495
38159367 39239226 39709124 39908989 39868872 39448742
38498686 37528721 34888915 33409062 32889135 32839256
32749386
&&
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 7
... ANY SEVERE ...
&&
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 8
... ANY SEVERE ...
&&
Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 6 15% Any Severe Convective Risk at Oct 13, 8:58z for portions of IND--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
7
EVANSVILLE IN Oct 12 Climate Report: High: 77 Low: 50 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"616
CDUS43 KPAH 122125
CLIEVV
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
425 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
...................................
...THE EVANSVILLE IN CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 12 2025...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0425 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1896 TO 2025
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 77 303 PM 87 1989 72 5 84
MINIMUM 50 713 AM 29 1988 49 1 52
AVERAGE 64 60 4 68
PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.00 4.18 1901 0.10 -0.10 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 2.77 1.24 1.53 0.00
SINCE SEP 1 7.27 4.55 2.72 4.45
SINCE JAN 1 48.82 37.87 10.95 37.04
SNOWFALL (IN)
TODAY 0.0 0.0
MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0
SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.0
SNOW DEPTH 0
...................................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 9 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NE (60)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 13 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NE (50)
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 100
LOWEST 40
..........................................................
THE EVANSVILLE IN CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 72 91 1989
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 48 25 1988
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
OCTOBER 12 2025.......SUNRISE 656 AM CDT SUNSET 616 PM CDT
OCTOBER 13 2025.......SUNRISE 657 AM CDT SUNSET 615 PM CDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: EVANSVILLE IN Oct 12 Climate Report: High: 77 Low: 50 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
8
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 3:59 AM EDT226
FXUS63 KLMK 140759
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
359 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the workweek with
highs mostly in the 70s.
* Strong frontal boundary to move through the region late Saturday
and into Sunday. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
during this time frame with 1-2 inches of rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
We can expect more of the same, dry, mostly sunny weather along with
above normal temperatures for today with highs in the mid/upper 70s
to near 80 across the KY/TN border. We remain under the influence of
strong upper ridging and sfc high coming out of Canada into the
Upper Midwest during the day. Higher gusts out of the northeast are
possible this afternoon as a weak cold front works into central IN
and stalls just to our north. This will slightly tighten the
pressure gradient over the area along with added daytime mixing.
High pressure will continue to build in over the Great Lakes tonight
as winds are expected to diminish and become calm. Lows will be a
little warmer than some of the past nights in the lo2 50s to upper
40s and some patchy fog in river valleys and low lying areas are
once again possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
We will remain under the influence of both upper ridging aloft and
sfc high pressure through the end of the week. This will continue
our dry and generally above normal temperatures for the second half
of the week. Upper low Over the western US will slowly shift
eastward from Wednesday towards the Dakotas as it gets absorbed and
become a deep upper trough over the central US by Friday. This will
shift the upper ridge eastward along with the sfc high pressure by
Friday. This will set up return flow over the Ohio Valley advecting
in Gulf moisture from the south with increased clouds.
By the weekend, the well advertised upper trough will begin to work
through the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. More Gulf
moisture will continue to advect in from the south pushing dewpoints
into the upper 50s/low 60s and increasing PWAT values to around
1.50" to 1.75" as a strong cold front approaches from the west. This
will increase the chances of showers as well as thunderstorms for
late Saturday into Sunday. There remains some timing issues between
the deterministic models as the GFS remains the faster solution
wanting to bring some of the showers/storms into the area by the
afternoon, while the ECMWF remains slower with a more Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Models show increased instability axis
developing ahead of the approaching cold front with a strong LLJ of
around 35-45kts. Both the SPC, CSU Machine learning and CIPS severe
analogs key in on an area from the Ark-La-Tex into central
IL/southern IN and nosing into parts of western KY. As was mentioned
in the previous forecast, the better dynamics and instability look
to be mostly east of our area during the day on Saturday, but as the
trough axis and associated cold front work into the region Saturday
night into Sunday, we could see an increased threat of strong to
even severe storms, mainly for western KY.
The other impact could be from localized flooding as guidance
continues to show the potential of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over
the area, with locally higher amounts from heavier showers and
storms. Additional development Sunday for more convection is
possible as the cold front begins to gross the area during the day.
Limited instability and shear may help to minimize the threat but
this will continue to be monitored over the next several days.
Ahead of the cold front on Saturday, highs will be their warmest
into the low/mid 80s. Colder air arriving behind the cold front
along with increased clouds and possible showers will see highs in
the upper 60s to near 70. As the upper trough works eastward and
develops into a closed low over the eastern Great Lakes, cold air
advection behind the departing system will bring another cool day to
start next week. Highs again in the mid/upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 158 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Little to no change in the going forecast with VFR flight categories
continuing through the period as we remain under upper ridging and
under the influence of sfc high pressure. While confidence isn't
real high BWG could see a brief period or two where we get MVFR or
even IFR VIS, so went with a tempo for a few hours this morning.
Skies will remain clear the only impacts will be winds increasing
some as a cold front tightens as high pressure builds in from the
northwest as a cold front approaches and stalls over central IN this
afternoon. Could see some gusts between 15-20kts still out of the
northeast.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 3:59 AM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
9
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 8:30 PM EDT381
FXUS63 KJKL 140030
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
830 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry, seasonably pleasant weather continues across eastern
Kentucky through the work week.
- Temperatures will remain near or just above climatological
averages for the duration of the forecast period.
- While confidence in specific details remains low, the next
chance of showers/storms will come next weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
Early evening obs have been blended into the forecast. Sky cover
and fog forecasts have also been updated with the new aviation
forecast. However, all changes are minimal.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 420 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
Late this afternoon, an upper level low was located across the mid
Atlantic states and mid Atlantic coast while the axis of an upper
level ridge was centered over eastern TX northeast to the mid MS
Valley to Lower OH Valley. Meanwhile, an upper level low was
located southwest of Hudson Bay. At the surface, a ridge of high
pressure that extended from the Lower to Middle OH Valley. Cumulus
has developed across the region during the heating of the day.
This evening through Tuesday, the upper level low and associated
trough in Canada is expected to progress east and northeast
across Hudson Bay and James Bay to Quebec while the upper level
low in the mid Atlantic states moves into the Atlantic and upper
level ridging remains centered over TX/Southern Plains with the
center of the ridge moving closer to the Arklatex region and
strengthens and there is a gradual trend of height rises into the
OH Valley and Southern to Central Appalachians.
The pattern will favor another night with colder temperatures in
the valleys and an associated nocturnal inversion leading to a
moderate/ridge valley split of low to mid 40s in the more
sheltered rural valleys and low 50s on the coalfield ridges. Light
winds and clear skies will also favor fog developing around or
just after midnight and this may become dense in the typically
favored locations along the larger creeks, rivers, and area lakes.
The fog should gradually lift and dissipate through about 10 AM on
Tuesday and some fair weather cumulus possibly developing. Some
stratus development overnight is also a possibility in the
southeast nearer to the VA border and Big Sandy region as
suggested by some of the guidance. This could linger a bit longer
into the morning on Tuesday and result in somewhat suppressed high
temperatures there.
For Tuesday night, upper level ridging is expected to remain
centered in the Arklatex vicinity, but height falls are progged
from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and mid Atlantic states and
into the OH Valley region south of troughing in eastern Canada
into the Northeast. Sf high pressure should build into the Great
Lakes at that point and send a moisture starved cold front south
across the Great Lakes region. This cold front should begin to sag
toward the OH Valley to end the period. Despite the approach of
the front, cloud cover on Tuesday night is expected to be minimal
and another small to moderate ridge/valley temperatures split is
anticipated along with valley fog in the typically favored
locations.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
Models and ensembles continue to be in good agreement over a ridge
of high pressure remaining over Kentucky through the end of the
workweek. This will lead to mostly sunny skies, and temperatures
ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s during the afternoons,
dropping into the low to mid-40s at night.
Friday, the ridge of high pressure thats been over the area for the
last few days, begins to progress eastward. This will allow for a
wind shift previously from the northeast, to the southwest during
the afternoon. Warmer air will advect into the region, leading to
temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70s during the afternoon.
With added cloud cover anticipated, temperatures cool into the 50s.
A pattern change, and the next good chance at rain looks to occur
next weekend, as a low pressure system will mature and occlude over
the Midwest during the day Friday. With the occluded head located
over the ND/MN area, and its trailing cold front extending further
south down into Texas. This cold front is set to push across the
Mississippi Valley during the day Saturday, with its arrival into
Eastern Kentucky Saturday evening through Sunday. With WAA occurring
through Saturday, look for temperatures to warm into the upper 70s,
and low 80s. A breezy Sunday can be expected as the area will be on
the back end of the low pressure, with a tightening pressure
gradient over the region. Ensemble spread and uncertainty begins to
increase Sunday and beyond with the exiting low, however a return
to dry weather looks to be favored on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
Valley fog will develop during the night and bring localized VLIFR
conditions, and then dissipate on Tuesday morning. It will be
most prevalent in southeast KY. However, it is not forecast to
affect TAF sites. There is a possibility of some MVFR ceilings
developing over extreme eastern KY during the day Tuesday, but
confidence in timing and extent is low. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected during most of the period for most of the area.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 8:30 PM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
10
FROST ADVISORY, Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara RegionIssued: 6:50 AM EDT Thursday 16 October 2025 Source: FROST ADVISORY, Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara Region--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
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