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Messages - ThreatWebInternal
1
« on: Today at 06:59:48 AM »
BATON ROUGE Jun 29 Climate Report: High: 88 Low: 73 Precip: 2.48" Snow: 0.0"042
CDUS44 KLIX 292132
CLIBTR
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS
432 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
...................................
...THE BATON ROUGE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 29 2025...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1894 TO 2025
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 88 12:01 PM 100 1914 91 -3 98
MINIMUM 73 5:19 AM 63 1958 73 0 82
AVERAGE 81
PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 2.48R 2.02 2017 0.21 2.27 0.01
MONTH TO DATE 6.60 6.22 0.38 4.15
SINCE JUN 1 6.60 6.22 0.38 4.15
SINCE JAN 1 32.73 31.77 0.96 34.44
SNOWFALL (IN)
TODAY 0.0
MONTH TO DATE 0.0
SINCE JUN 1 0.0
SINCE JUL 1 7.6
SNOW DEPTH MM
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
TODAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0
SINCE JUN 1 0 0 0 0
SINCE JUL 1 1173 1535 -362 1137
COOLING
TODAY 16 17 -1 25
MONTH TO DATE 500 462 38 571
SINCE JUN 1 500 462 38 571
SINCE JAN 1 1244 1034 210 1431
...................................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 25 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION S (200)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 35 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION S (200)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 1.9
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.3
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
THUNDERSTORM
HEAVY RAIN
RAIN
LIGHT RAIN
FOG
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 97 3:00 AM
LOWEST 66 12:00 PM
AVERAGE 82
..........................................................
THE BATON ROUGE CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 91 103 1914
1954
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 73 62 1938
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
JUNE 29 2025..........SUNRISE 6:05 AM CDT SUNSET 8:11 PM CDT
JUNE 30 2025..........SUNRISE 6:06 AM CDT SUNSET 8:11 PM CDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: BATON ROUGE Jun 29 Climate Report: High: 88 Low: 73 Precip: 2.48" Snow: 0.0"--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
2
« on: Today at 06:59:47 AM »
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Jun 29, 10:00 AM CDT836
WTNT42 KNHC 291507
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Convective activity with the system has increased somewhat this
morning, though it is not terribly well-organized, thanks in large
part to continued 25-30 kt westerly vertical wind shear over the
system. Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance is currently sampling the
system, and has found a better defined center this morning with
fixes also indicating that the system is gaining more latitude.
Within the past 20 minutes, a northeast inbound leg into the storm
found 850 mb flight level winds of 43 kt, and a dropsonde with a
surface wind gust of 39 kt. This recent wind information is the
primary basis for increasing the winds to 35 kt, making the
depression Tropical Storm Barry.
Aircraft fixes indicate the storm is now moving northwestward,
with the motion estimated at 310/5 kt. A narrow low-to-mid level
ridge over the central Gulf should continue to steer the tropical
cyclone in this direction until it makes landfall over eastern
Mexico by the end of today or tonight. The latest NHC track forecast
is just a bit more northwestward compared to the prior one,
mostly accounting for changes in the initial position, but remain
in good agreement with the track guidance consensus. As mentioned
previously, the strongest winds are expected to occur north of the
center along the coast within the tropical storm warning area this
afternoon and tonight.
An upper-level trough located over southern Texas appears partially
responsible for the unfavorable upper-level winds currently over the
tropical storm. This is unlikely to change today, and in fact might
even get worse as upper-level outflow from newly formed Tropical
Storm Flossie in the eastern Pacific becomes more pronounced.
Despite the shear, waters over the Gulf remain warm (28-29 C) and
there is plenty of deep-layer moisture. The upper-level flow pattern
is also quite difluent over the system, so the latest NHC intensity
forecast shows a little more intensification before landfall tonight
over eastern Mexico. This is more or less in line with the regional
hurricane model guidance (e.g., HWRF and HAFS-B). The system should
then weaken quickly as soon as it moves inland overnight with
complete dissipation over the rugged terrain of central Mexico by
the end of the day Monday.
The primary impacts with Barry remain heavy rainfall and flash
flooding for portions of eastern Mexico in upslope terrain as the
system moves inland over the area of over the next day or two.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical Storm Barry will produce heavy rainfall across portions
of northeastern Mexico. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.
2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
later today and tonight over portions of eastern Mexico in the
tropical storm warning area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 20.4N 96.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 21.2N 97.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 22.0N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Jun 29, 10:00 AM CDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
3
« on: Today at 06:59:47 AM »
WHEELING WV Jun 30 Climate Report: High: 85 Low: 72 Precip: 0.46" Snow: Missing002
CDUS41 KPBZ 302127
CLIHLG
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
...................................
...THE WHEELING WV CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 30 2025...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1878 TO 2025
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 85 1036 AM 98 1931 82 3 86
MINIMUM 72 554 AM 42 1923 62 10 60
AVERAGE 79 72 7 73
PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.46 2.15 1915 0.13 0.33 T
MONTH TO DATE 4.70 4.14 0.56 1.74
SINCE JUN 1 4.70 4.14 0.56 1.74
SINCE JAN 1 19.46 19.17 0.29 19.97
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
TODAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 21 29 -8 10
SINCE JUN 1 21 29 -8 10
SINCE JUL 1 4711 5417 -706 4232
COOLING
TODAY 14 7 7 8
MONTH TO DATE 262 148 114 252
SINCE JUN 1 262 148 114 252
SINCE JAN 1 331 213 118 381
...................................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 16 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION W (260)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 26 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION W (260)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 6.0
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.2
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
THUNDERSTORM
HEAVY RAIN
RAIN
LIGHT RAIN
FOG
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 97 200 AM
LOWEST 67 1100 AM
AVERAGE 82
..........................................................
THE WHEELING WV CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 82 101 1931
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 62 40 1943
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
JUNE 30 2025..........SUNRISE 557 AM EDT SUNSET 856 PM EDT
JULY 1 2025..........SUNRISE 557 AM EDT SUNSET 856 PM EDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: WHEELING WV Jun 30 Climate Report: High: 85 Low: 72 Precip: 0.46" Snow: Missing--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
4
« on: Today at 06:59:47 AM »
CLE issues Flood Advisory for Erie [PA] till Jun 30, 11:15 PM EDT894
WGUS81 KCLE 010011
FLSCLE
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
811 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
PAC049-010315-
/O.NEW.KCLE.FA.Y.0048.250701T0011Z-250701T0315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie PA-
811 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
* WHERE...A portion of northwest Pennsylvania, including the
following county, Erie.
* WHEN...Until 1115 PM EDT.
* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 811 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain
have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are expected
over the area. This additional rain will result in minor
flooding.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Erie, Edinboro, North East, Girard, Waterford, Albion,
Northwest Harborcreek, Harborcreek, Lawrence Park,
Wesleyville, Lake City, Cranesville, Platea, Mill Village,
McKean, Northwest Harborcr and Avonia.
- Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety
and preparedness information.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
&&
LAT...LON 4230 7976 4229 7974 4228 7974 4227 7976
4205 7976 4202 7982 4185 7997 4185 8039
4205 8036
$$
Garuckas
Source: CLE issues Flood Advisory for Erie [PA] till Jun 30, 11:15 PM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
5
« on: Today at 06:59:46 AM »
IWX issues A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL WHITE COUNTY THROUGH 830 PM EDT [wind: 30 MPH, hail: 0.00 IN]530
WWUS83 KIWX 292351
SPSIWX
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
751 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
INZ020-300030-
White IN-
751 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL WHITE COUNTY
THROUGH 830 PM EDT...
At 751 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wolcott, or near Remington, moving north at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Wolcott.
This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 196 and 198.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4084 8710 4084 8701 4070 8695 4069 8709
4070 8710
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 160DEG 10KT 4077 8706
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
$$
MARSILI
Source: IWX issues A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL WHITE COUNTY THROUGH 830 PM EDT [wind: 30 MPH, hail: 0.00 IN]--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
7
« on: Today at 06:59:45 AM »
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 10:51 PM CDT622
FXUS63 KPAH 300351
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1051 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected through
Monday. Heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds will be
possible.
- A drier trend continues for Independence Day with seasonal
highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Lower heights extend across the northern tier of the US this
afternoon with an upper level disturbance to the northwest.
A few showers and storms have resulted and will continue into
the evening hours. PW's remain very high with values over 2
inches and will result in periods of heavy rainfall and isolated
flash flooding. A few isolated or scattered showers/storms may
continue into the night as low level waa remains atop the
region. Amplification of a northern stream trough occurs across
the Midwest on Monday. This will send a cold front through the
region Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Increasing wind
fields aloft may lead to a strong to severe risk with any
thunderstorm complex with damaging winds the primary hazard.
Once again, localized flash flooding will be possible.
We finally see some drier weather behind the front Tuesday.
Guidance continues to show the rest of this week dry as upper
level ridging builds across the region. Toward the end of the
forecast period, another trough moves into the plains and begins
to bring low-end PoPs into portions of the area. Temperatures
in the upper 80's early to mid week will rise into the low to
mid 90's by the end of the week and into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible at any
time throughout this TAF issuance with brief reductions to MVFR
or possibly lower visibilities in heavier precipitation.
Otherwise, the better chance of more widespread organized shower
and thunderstorm activity will be Monday afternoon into Monday
evening as a cold front approaches/moves through the area from
west to east.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 10:51 PM CDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
8
« on: Today at 06:59:45 AM »
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jun 30, 20:02z for portions of LMK952
WUUS01 KWNS 302004
PTSDY1
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
VALID TIME 302000Z - 011200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... TORNADO ...
&&
... HAIL ...
0.05 34390050 34770032 35539823 35679620 35779478 35289455
34329517 33699797 33649979 34390050
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 44557734 43487455 40287436 39007491 38717534 38177681
37837945 37737994 37668127 39298367 38378652 36998768
35338838 33979019 33769236 33049694 32399997 32220162
32920282 33210282 34270137 35549825 35779448 36309355
37909293 39809391 40119381 41359267 42228953 42728714
43588547 44268553 44498625 44768802 45718985 46668982
48578759
0.05 41722410 42612376 43212280 43422122 42211999 41761993
40932104 40732277 40882343 41722410
0.05 31131136 32141133 33211084 34000866 34930793 35670639
35240573 34260594 33010590 32250622 31470768
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... CATEGORICAL ...
MRGL 43212282 43402122 42151993 41742000 40922095 40742278
40822338 41722410 42682362 43212282
MRGL 44377688 43507454 40267435 38887498 38087713 37747984
37728125 39298367 38378652 37148776 35318843 33979025
33709254 33059697 32389995 32200162 32960285 33230282
34390132 35579815 35759444 36329353 37909291 39909388
41349269 42738698 43678545 44258557 44528635 44808805
45738986 46628987 48578753
MRGL 31191136 32111133 33181084 33990868 34910792 35650642
35240575 34270596 32970591 32280621 31480767
TSTM 46047149 45187014 44316950 43566921 42996885 99999999
31211198 32061189 33751178 34251194 34561221 34981287
35691302 36181276 36971257 37441333 38441434 39421529
40421624 41221723 41501778 41401858 40671940 39461940
38961914 38401888 38011876 37891886 37861915 38071961
38271995 38812108 39272199 39752360 40312406 40822408
41742430 42632417 43982304 44702117 44461972 44231969
43451905 42971843 42801753 42971656 43121551 42981332
42741186 42461045 41980921 41980752 41920563 41350286
40980217 39710124 38910045 38649941 38989827 39499788
40099793 40839829 41499862 41789867 42289850 42679743
43379708 44569716 45609781 46489857 47589942 49390039
&&
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N
MFR 60 S RDM 25 E LKV 35 ENE AAT 45 SSW AAT 45 SSW MHS 40 E EKA 10
ESE CEC 45 WNW MFR 60 N MFR.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW
ART 50 WNW GFL 15 N NEL 30 ESE DOV 40 WSW NHK 25 E SSU 10 WSW BKW 40
ENE LUK 45 WNW SDF 35 NNW HOP 35 SE MKL 35 NNW GWO 35 NNE ELD 15 NNW
DAL 15 W ABI BGS 30 NE HOB 45 NNE HOB 30 NE PVW 35 WNW OKC 25 SW FYV
20 W HRO 45 WNW TBN 15 WNW CDJ 20 NW OTM 40 E RAC 50 NE MKG 35 S TVC
20 NNW MBL 25 N GRB 20 WNW RHI 15 ENE IWD 105 NNE CMX.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW
FHU 20 W TUS 70 ESE PHX 80 ESE SOW 20 S GNT 20 W SAF 30 SE SAF 20 NW
4CR 15 NE ALM 35 NNE ELP 55 S DMN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NNE EFK 60 NNW AUG
15 E AUG 55 E PWM 85 ESE PWM ...CONT... 85 SW TUS 55 W TUS 25 NNE
PHX 40 SE PRC 15 ESE PRC 35 NW PRC 50 WSW GCN 40 WNW GCN 55 SSW BCE
20 SW CDC 55 N P38 25 WNW ELY 35 ESE BAM 35 NE WMC 40 N WMC 55 NW
WMC 60 NW LOL 20 E RNO 45 SSW NFL 70 ESE TVL 50 NNW BIH 45 NW BIH 55
NW BIH 60 SSE TVL 45 S TVL 30 NE SAC 60 NNW SAC 50 NNW UKI 35 S EKA
EKA CEC 40 N 4BK 15 SE EUG 30 N RDM 70 NNW BNO 55 NW BNO 10 SSW BNO
40 NW REO 25 NE REO 45 SSW BOI 45 SE BOI 35 W PIH 40 ESE PIH 20 WSW
BPI 25 NNW RKS 20 NW RWL 40 N LAR 20 NNE SNY 45 NW IML 35 NE GLD 45
SW HLC 35 WSW RSL 30 ENE RSL 15 WSW CNK 40 NNW CNK 10 S GRI 35 SE
BUB 25 E BUB 15 SE ONL 20 S YKN 20 SW FSD 25 NW BKX 30 ENE ABR 30 S
JMS 45 SSW DVL 85 NNE MOT.
Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jun 30, 20:02z for portions of LMK--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
9
« on: Today at 06:59:44 AM »
JACKSON KY Jun 30 Climate Report: High: 87 Low: 69 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"867
CDUS43 KJKL 302020
CLIJKL
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
420 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
...................................
...THE JACKSON KY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 30 2025...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1981 TO 2025
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 87 224 PM 103 2012 85 2 84
MINIMUM 69 504 AM 57 1989 66 3 66
2000
AVERAGE 78 75 3 75
PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.00 1.30 2024 0.18 -0.18 1.30
MONTH TO DATE 5.99 5.25 0.74 5.53
SINCE JUN 1 5.99 5.25 0.74 5.53
SINCE JAN 1 38.34 27.69 10.65 27.15
SNOWFALL (IN)
TODAY 0.0 0.0 MM 0.0 0.0 0.0
MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SINCE JUN 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SINCE JUL 1 28.8 23.4 5.4 15.4
SNOW DEPTH 0
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
TODAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 4 6 -2 2
SINCE JUN 1 4 6 -2 2
SINCE JUL 1 3750 4065 -315 3320
COOLING
TODAY 13 10 3 10
MONTH TO DATE 297 235 62 306
SINCE JUN 1 297 235 62 306
SINCE JAN 1 418 394 24 517
...................................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 9 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION S (170)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 16 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION S (170)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 2.2
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.2
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 97 600 AM
LOWEST 63 100 PM
AVERAGE 80
..........................................................
THE JACKSON KY CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 85 98 2012
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 66 53 1988
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
JUNE 30 2025..........SUNRISE 615 AM EDT SUNSET 859 PM EDT
JULY 1 2025..........SUNRISE 616 AM EDT SUNSET 859 PM EDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
CARICO
Source: JACKSON KY Jun 30 Climate Report: High: 87 Low: 69 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
10
« on: Today at 06:59:42 AM »
ILN issues Flash Flood Warning [flash flood: radar indicated] for Ross [OH] till Jul 1, 11:30 AM EDT814
WGUS51 KILN 011220
FFWILN
OHC141-011530-
/O.NEW.KILN.FF.W.0027.250701T1220Z-250701T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
820 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025
The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Ross County in south central Ohio...
* Until 1130 AM EDT.
* At 820 AM EDT, radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain
across the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 1.5 inches in 2 hours.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches are possible. Flash
flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE...Radar.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.
* Some locations that may experience flash flooding include...
Chillicothe, Kingston, Bainbridge, North Folk Village, Frankfort,
Clarksburg, South Salem, Knockemstiff, Andersonville, Bourneville,
Massieville, Lattaville, Summithill, Scioto Trail State Park,
Austin, Mooresville and Hallsville.
Repeated bouts of flooding has occurred over the past several days.
It won't take much additional rain on saturated soil to result in
additional flash flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.
To report flash flooding, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
&&
LAT...LON 3934 8276 3925 8287 3918 8291 3921 8330
3924 8333 3927 8337 3935 8337 3952 8324
3951 8316 3951 8311 3950 8301 3949 8300
3948 8300 3948 8299 3946 8275
FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-1.5 INCHES IN 2 HOURS
$$
JDR
Source: ILN issues Flash Flood Warning [flash flood: radar indicated] for Ross [OH] till Jul 1, 11:30 AM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
11
« on: Today at 06:59:42 AM »
Sens re-sign veteran forward Claude Giroux to 1-year deal The Ottawa Senators have signed veteran forward Claude Giroux to a one-year contract extension, the team announced Sunday. Source: Sens re-sign veteran forward Claude Giroux to 1-year deal----------------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
12
« on: Today at 06:59:42 AM »
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jun 28, 20:00z for portions of BOX597
WUUS01 KWNS 282001
PTSDY1
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VALID TIME 282000Z - 291200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... TORNADO ...
0.02 45389788 46369774 46799778 47209756 47339690 47219574
46879453 46329285 45909071 45208994 44499082 44029341
44109711 44569799 45389788
0.02 43057243 42307259 41657344 41697528 42267600 42867584
43337493 43057243
0.05 44339360 44379539 44449671 44559737 44989761 45709757
46069703 46169572 46099435 45859294 45579209 45259189
44699208 44479246 44339360
&&
... HAIL ...
0.05 48829079 47719274 46769242 46318830 45588768 44478812
44018920 43139239 42639458 41129774 40179945 40150130
41090204 42480470 44060611 45050640 45720519 45850024
46849948 47779939 49579940
0.15 42570366 43800519 44910523 45190361 45130283 44990167
44860084 45139927 45959797 46569805 47139838 47399848
47699850 47939772 47959600 47209456 46449306 45959149
45209108 44759131 44409184 44149281 43909473 43149741
42539946 42020111 42170213 42570366
SIGN 44389665 44519731 44869760 45679761 46349765 46839768
47109726 46869552 46109372 46109369 45849342 45429320
45019326 44659366 44559426 44389665
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 39778293 40348252 40838117 41627915 42537734 43507545
43887453 43697319 42817202 41937207 41157348 39457471
38257552 37107658 35867786 34758260 35278365 37338106
38467955 38808010 38428206 38938291 39778293
0.05 48829069 47719278 46789242 46318830 45598769 44498810
44048918 43409132 42639454 41129772 40179945 40150129
41060197 42510475 44100616 45060642 45740519 45820024
46199893 47199840 49689856
0.15 41087892 42717542 42777382 42537308 41807323 40377458
39437599 39437719 40167882 40547924 41087892
0.15 44610387 45140281 44920114 44800025 45049927 45909824
47209785 47409661 47039441 46719257 46399103 46049014
45338977 44779003 44339058 43849293 43549441 43249586
42989709 42589795 41409894 41390101 42170214 42600365
43290430 44110402 44610387
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... CATEGORICAL ...
SLGT 41087892 42717542 42777382 42537308 41807323 40377458
39437599 39437719 40167882 40547924 41087892
SLGT 45190361 44870078 45139927 45909824 46569805 47139838
47699850 47939772 47959600 46989413 46399103 46049014
45338977 44779003 44339058 42989709 42589795 41409894
41390101 42170214 42570366 43800519 44910523 45190361
MRGL 38467955 38808010 38428206 38938291 39778293 40348252
41627915 43507545 43887453 43697319 42817202 41937207
41157348 38257552 35867786 34758260 35278365 38467955
MRGL 48759082 47719274 46789242 46318830 45588768 44478812
44018920 43409132 42639454 41129772 40179945 40150130
41090204 42510475 44100616 45060642 45740519 45850024
46849948 47779939 49489940
TSTM 49320631 48000959 47711121 47661353 48031483 48561606
49581712 99999999 30921070 32210971 33670894 34640783
35620689 36400626 37570553 38640515 39430504 39940513
40370540 40670584 41120668 41260741 40950960 40341249
40421332 40431396 40621466 40921496 41531508 42031459
42251399 42261290 41911186 41871082 42170972 42830935
43700914 43980948 43991034 44381118 45161106 46021038
46360938 46910587 47920204 49539955 99999999 47148419
45208356 44178369 43258476 41679092 41849156 42239270
42319313 42379375 42089393 41299372 40619293 40519177
40319035 40228908 40408759 40738566 41478226 42827823
44177500 45577386 99999999 27319997 28039888 29289846
30179815 30529788 30719743 30959700 31289610 32089482
32429485 32719507 32669605 32769700 33009774 33319848
33639944 33550018 33000121 31900168 30990175 29290153
&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUJ 30
S UCA ALB 15 ENE PSF 30 WSW BDL 15 ENE TTN 25 SW ILG 35 WNW BWI 30
WSW AOO 20 NNE LBE DUJ.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
2WX 40 NW PIR 45 WSW ABR 30 NNE ABR 40 SE JMS 20 NE JMS 35 SSE DVL
25 W GFK 10 SE TVF 40 N BRD 10 SSW ASX 35 S IWD 25 SW RHI 20 W CWA
30 NNW VOK 15 ENE YKN 35 SW YKN 30 SSE BUB 25 NW LBF 35 ENE AIA 35
WSW CDR 40 SSE GCC 35 SSE 4BQ 25 S 2WX.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
EKN 15 WSW EKN 25 W CRW 40 WSW UNI 15 S CMH 30 NE CMH 30 WSW BFD 25
N UCA 40 SSW SLK 15 NW RUT 15 ESE EEN 25 SSW ORH 20 W BDR SBY RWI 20
NNE AND 45 SSE TYS 35 SSE EKN.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW
GNA 25 N HIB 10 WSW DLH 35 NNW IMT 25 SE IMT GRB 30 W OSH 35 S LSE
20 WNW FOD 30 SW OLU 45 SSW EAR 30 SSE IML 45 NNW IML 35 ESE DGW 35
WSW GCC 35 NE SHR 25 NNE 4BQ 25 NNE MBG 40 W JMS 35 SW DVL 95 NNW
DVL.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 N GGW 40 SSE HVR
20 NNE GTF 55 SE GPI 35 SW GPI 75 NNW 3TH 135 NE OMK ...CONT... 50
SSW FHU 45 S SAD 70 NE SAD 35 S GNT 30 S 4SL 45 NE 4SL 20 ENE ALS 25
WSW COS 25 SSW DEN 20 NW DEN 20 WSW FCL 45 WNW FCL 55 WSW LAR 40 SSW
RWL 35 N VEL 25 ENE DPG 25 NW DPG 20 S ENV 35 W ENV 45 E EKO 60 NE
EKO 30 S TWF 25 SSW BYI 30 WNW MLD 30 SE MLD 40 NNE EVW 35 SE BPI 30
W LND 55 NW RIW 45 SSW COD 35 NE JAC 20 S WEY 35 N WEY 20 N LVM 20
ESE 3HT 35 N MLS 35 NW N60 100 NNW DVL ...CONT... 45 N ANJ 10 N APN
25 SW OSC 35 NNW LAN 25 NW MLI 10 ESE CID 25 SW ALO 40 WSW ALO 25
ESE FOD 35 SSE FOD 15 S DSM 40 NNW IRK 40 WSW BRL 45 SW PIA 20 SSW
BMI 15 N DNV 30 SW FWA 20 W CLE 25 ESE BUF 40 WSW SLK 65 NE MSS
...CONT... 35 WSW LRD 35 SE COT 15 S SAT 30 WSW AUS 20 NW AUS 30 S
TPL 30 ESE TPL 50 NNE CLL 20 SSW GGG 10 WNW GGG 30 NW GGG 45 WNW TYR
10 SW DAL 25 NE MWL 45 NNW MWL 60 WSW SPS 60 S CDS 55 NNE BGS 25 SSW
BGS 70 E FST 35 W DRT.
Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jun 28, 20:00z for portions of BOX---------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
13
« on: Today at 12:59:20 AM »
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Jun 29, 4:00 PM CDT038
WTNT42 KNHC 292036
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Earlier this afternoon, in the final leg exiting Barry in the
northeast quadrant, the Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance sampling
the storm measured a 850 mb flight level wind of 51 kt at 1647 UTC.
This data was the basis for increasing the winds to 40 kt at 18 UTC
intermediate advisory using the standard surface wind reduction
factor. Since the aircraft left the storm, the satellite
presentation has remained quite unimpressive, with the deepest
convection near the center being sheared off to the southeast,
though a larger curved band is attempting to organize well to the
northeast of the small surface vortex. The center has also been
trackable on radar based out of Tampico, Mexico. Based partially off
the earlier aircraft data, the intensity of Barry remains 40 kt this
advisory, but this value is also close to the objective satellite
estimates of 41 kt and 40 kt from ADT and SATCON respectively.
Barry continues to move off to the northwest, with the latest motion
estimated at 315/8 kt, faster than earlier today. The steering flow
is well-established by a low-to-mid level ridge parked in the
central Gulf, which should maintain Barry's northwestward motion
until it makes landfall this evening near Cabo Rojo, between
the cities of Tuxpan and Tampico, Mexico. The latest NHC track is
only slightly more right than the prior track, and is closest to
the interpolated 12 UTC ECMWF track aid this cycle (EMXI).
Time is just about up for Barry to intensify more before it makes
landfall along the eastern Gulf coast of Mexico. Weakening should
begin shortly after the tropical storm moves inland and especially
when it encounters the high rugged terrain located in East-Central
Mexico. This weakening is reflected in the latest NHC intensity
forecast, and Barry will likely dissipate before the end of the day
on Monday, in good agreement with the vast majority of the global
and hurricane regional model guidance.
The primary impact with Barry remains heavy rainfall and flash
flooding for the upslope areas of eastern Mexico. Please see the
latest forecast rainfall graphic from the Weather Prediction Center
International Desk for more information.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical Storm Barry will produce heavy rainfall across portions
of northeastern Mexico through Monday. Life-threatening flooding and
mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep terrain.
2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
later today and tonight over portions of eastern Mexico in the
tropical storm warning area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 21.2N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 22.0N 97.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/1800Z 22.8N 98.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Jun 29, 4:00 PM CDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
14
« on: Today at 12:59:20 AM »
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 6:51 AM CDT ...New Aviation...003
FXUS64 KMOB 291151
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
651 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
An upper level shortwave system has settled over the eastern
Southeast, with another over the Caribbean along with an active
upper pattern over the northern half of the Conus. All this upper
energy comes together into the coming week, organizing a mean upper
trough over the eastern Conus, with a bit deeper upper low over the
Gulf. In combination with a very moist airmass over the Gulf and
Southeast, the forecast area and nearby enters into a wet pattern,
with scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms into
Tuesday. This convection is expected to form south of the coast
overnight, then shift inland during the day. Instability is modest
for this time of the year (MLCapes in the 1000-1500J/kg range, with
DCapes dropping into the 200-500J/kg range) through this period,
limiting the chances of strong to severe storms. The wet airmass
along with modest instability will allow the expected convection to
be efficient rainers. Weak deep layer winds will limit storm
movement, allowing localized very heavy rains to cause localized
water issues, mainly over our coastal counties and nearby.
Tuesday night through Wednesday, a strong upper level shortwave
system moves into the eastern mean upper trough. A weak cold front
moves south over the Southeast in response, with a significantly
drier airmass behind. An upper ridge builds north over the Plains
mid week, shifting itself and the eastern upper trough east
through the end of the week. Shortwave energy at the base of the
eastern upper trough pinches off, forming an upper circulation off
the Florida Atlantic coast. PoPs drop through the end of the week
into the weekend in response.
The wet pattern Sunday through Tuesday will drop high temperatures
to below seasonal norms. Upper 80s to low 90s today will drop into
the mid to upper 80s for Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures rise
through the end of the week as the upper ridge approaches, rising
into the low to mid 90s by the weekend. Heat indices topping out in
the upper 90s to low 100s today drop into the mid 90s to around 100
for Monday and Tuesday. Heat indices then rise through the end of
the week, though the drier airmass will temper the rise. 100-107
degree heat indices are expected by Saturday. Low temperatures are
expected to see a more steady day to day curve, with low to mid 70s
expected over and north of I-10, mid 70s to near 80 expected over
areas south of I-10 to the coast.
A larger tidal cycle will work with a modest onshore swell to bring
a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents to area beaches the beginning of the
week. The Rip Risk drops to a Low Risk the latter half of the week
as the tidal cycle decreases and the onshore swell drops.
Looking well outside of the Southeast, TD2 has formed over the Bay
of Campeche, and is expected to move northwest over Mexico, well
southwest of the forecast area. No effects are expected from this
storm at this time. /16
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
VFR conditions are generally expected throughout most of the day
with brief restrictions (lower ceilings and visibility) during any
thunderstorms today. Isolated storms along the coastline this
morning will continue for the next 2-3 hours before scattered
showers and storms develop this afternoon into the early evening
hours across the entire area. Calm winds will increase to 5-10
knots by late morning and turn southerly to southwesterly by
early afternoon before becoming light and variable again this
evening. 07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 90 73 88 72 87 72 91 71 / 70 60 90 60 90 60 80 40
Pensacola 89 75 85 74 86 74 89 74 / 70 60 90 70 90 60 80 50
Destin 90 77 88 77 88 77 90 77 / 70 70 90 80 90 70 80 50
Evergreen 92 71 88 70 88 70 91 70 / 70 40 90 40 90 40 70 20
Waynesboro 91 71 87 71 89 71 91 70 / 60 30 80 40 80 30 40 10
Camden 90 71 86 70 86 71 88 69 / 60 30 80 40 90 40 50 10
Crestview 91 71 86 70 88 70 91 71 / 80 50 100 60 100 50 90 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 6:51 AM CDT ...New Aviation...--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
15
« on: Today at 12:59:20 AM »
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 30, 12:32 PM EDT568
FXUS61 KPBZ 301632
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1232 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and
again on Tuesday. A few storms could produce damaging winds and
localized flooding. Dry weather with slightly above normal
temperatures returns through Saturday save a chance of showers
and storms on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rain
possible this afternoon and evening.
- Muggy overnight with some areas of fog possible.
---------------------------------------------------------------
A stalled boundary will lift north as a warm front today with
increasing showers and thunderstorms in the warm sector aided by a
passing mid-level shortwave. The environment will look a bit
different today than the past several days with bit more shear be
available with marginally increasing low and mid level flow,
especially north of Pittsburgh. The morning showers and scattered
cloud cover may mute the environment some for a severe threat
farther north, but the 12z HREF still suggests a 60-70% chance of
SBCAPE >1000 J/kg and 30 knots of deep layer shear by this
afternoon. Equilibrium levels are high with a deeper CAPE profile,
so wouldn't be surprised to see better updraft cores today. This
environment supports the chance for more organization in convective
development potentially into broken line segments capable of
damaging wind and marginally severe hail, though think the hail
threat is lower given the saturated profile not supporting hail
maintenance. There will also be a low, but not zero, tornado threat
confined to around the US-422 to I-80 corridor in closest proximity
to the surface boundary. Increasing south/southwest 925-850 mb flow
atop south/southeasterly surface flow will elongate the lower part
of the hodographs suggesting a bit higher potential for streamwise
vorticity ingestion in favorably south/southeasterly right
movers. STP there nudges up to 0.3-0.7.
The other threat will be heavy rainfall with deep layer southerly
flow pumping in PWAT values nearing 2 inches. What might help us
mitigate a significant excessive rainfall threat is upwind
propagation vectors in the 15-20 knot range rather than <10
knots and a deeper CAPE profile suggesting warm rain processes
might not be as dominant as previous days. Still, with those
PWATs, HREF probability for >1"/hour rates is as high as 50% in
northwest PA, specifically Lawrence, Mercer, and Venango
Counties, as well as in the PA ridges. So, have opted to go with
a flood watch through 10pm tonight to cover this threat
especially given our relatively hydrophobic conditions with
recent rainfall.
Convective activity likely wanes after sunset and gives way to a
warm and humid overnight period with lows 8-10 degrees above normal.
Some fog is possible in sheltered areas and valleys that see rain
today, but elevated wind likely precludes most development.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers and thunderstorms with another risk for severe and
heavy rainfall Tuesday.
- Temperatures climb a bit with drier weather on Wednesday.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Another round of showers and storms will develop on Tuesday along
and ahead of a passing cold front and mid level trough. Some
uncertainty arises with potential morning convection along a pre-
frontal trough, especially in northern WV and southwest PA. Not all
CAMs have this, but if it does develop, it could taint the local
environment ahead of the afternoon FROPA. What else it could do is
enhance the flooding threat in the same area with several rounds of
showers and storms in a still tropical-like environment with near 2"
PWATs. Faster storm motion should again preclude more notable flood
threats, but the environment will support heavy rainfall.
With the frontal passage, HREF prob for 1000 J/kg SBCAPE and 30
knots of deep layer shear reaches 70-80%, so again a favorable
environment to support organization and a damaging wind threat.
Highest probability for severe at this point looks to be north of
Pittsburgh, but with morning uncertainty that threat could shift
farther south. SPC has maintained the expanded Marginal Risk (1/5)
as far back as DUJ to PIT to HLG.
A dry day comes Wednesday in the wake of the front with surface high
pressure nosing in from the west. Dew points come down back into the
low to mid 60s but temperatures are still likely to breach 85F for
highs with up to an 80% chance in southeast Ohio and the
southwest PA urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cold front Thursday brings back showers and storms.
- July 4th holiday looks dry.
- Rain chances return late next weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A shortwave will churn through the ECONUS longwave trough on
Thursday and kick a cold front through the area from the northwest.
Timing remains a bit uncertain, but passage is likely some time late
morning to mid-afternoon which will return the chance for showers
and storms. It remains unclear how much effect the high and
associated lingering subsidence may have as the front butts up
against it. Dew points ahead of it look to sit in the low 60s with
not much return flow on Wednesday, but the NBM prob for >1000 J/kg
SBCAPE is around 50-60% in the afternoon hours. Deep layer shear may
be the lacking component with the best forcing and flow displaced to
the north with the shortwave. Still, machine learning does peg at
least a low-end chance of severe weather with the passage,
contingent on it being at a favorable diurnal time.
Headed into the fourth, ensembles are in good agreement on a return
of mid-level ridging behind the departing longwave. Some subtle
timing differences arise with how quickly the ridge builds which
suggests that high temperatures are lower confidence right now, but
some of the MaxT spread has decreased with a trend toward a warmer
solution in the mid to upper 80s. Rain chances are low in any
scenario at less than 20% with dry air advecting in in the wake of
Thursday's boundary.
The ridge flattens out into the weekend with a mid-level zonal flow
pattern taking over. Ensembles do agree on low pressure development
across the Northern Plains sometime Friday into Saturday and quickly
sliding east, but disagreement on timing lends low confidence
precipitation chances locally as the attendant surface cold front
follows along with it. Most of Saturday looks dry at this time with
even the faster solutions holding precip chances off until early
Sunday, so most likely will see a more unsettled pattern return for
the latter half of the weekend and into next week. Temperatures
around average through the second half of the week may warm to
slightly above average for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A few showers may impact ZZV and FKL this morning, otherwise
most TAF sites are expected to remain VFR underneath mid and
upper level cloud cover. A couple of thunderstorms over eastern
Ohio should largely avoid TAF sites this morning.
The old stubborn boundary to our south will lift back north
today as a warm front, once again providing a very rich moisture
environment. Diurnal cumulus will begin to pop later this
morning as low level lapse rates start to steepen and as
convective temperatures are reached.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by
early to mid afternoon as a shortwave trough crosses the Upper
Ohio Valley region, and as a surface boundary lifts north. CAPE
is expected to range from 1000-2000 j/kg as the wave crosses,
with 0-6km shear near 40kt. Included TEMPO for thunderstorms at
all airports for the most likely time of occurrence, with PIT
generally 19Z-23Z. Included MVFR restrictions for now, though
IFR will be possible in locally heavy rainfall.
Convection should gradually wane this evening with the loss of
diurnal instability, and as the shortwave exits. Lingering low-
level moisture will lead to an MVFR/IFR stratus deck overnight,
with enough mixing remaining to keep widespread fog from
developing.
Outlook...
A crossing cold front will result in numerous showers and
thunderstorms again on Tuesday afternoon and evening. VFR
returns Wednesday under high pressure, before restriction and
thunderstorm potential returns with a Thursday cold front. VFR
is expected again by Friday under high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-073>078.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLB
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...MLB
LONG TERM...Rackley/MLB
AVIATION...WM/CL
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 30, 12:32 PM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
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