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Messages - ThreatWebInternal
2
« on: Today at 03:30:42 AM »
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 30, 12:55 PM CST ...New UPDATE...855
FXUS64 KMOB 301855 AAA
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1255 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
- Strong flow may create hazardous conditions for small craft
over the open Gulf waters late Monday night into Tuesday.
- A high rip current risk now in effect through Tuesday for the
Northwest Florida Panhandle beaches.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Rip Current Risk: We have received reports from beach partners
over the northwest FL Panhandle of dangerous surf and currents
and red flags being hoisted. Considering this, we have upgraded
the Moderate Risk to a High Risk. The Alabama beaches will remain
at moderate risk levels through Monday but anticipate the risk to
increase to High Monday night and Tuesday for these beaches. /10
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1109 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
11.30Z upper air maps show a nearly flat flow in the geo-potential
height field at high levels with a stream of clouds ejecting
eastward over the Lower MS River Valley. In the lower levels and at
the surface, a front was aligned from the OH River Valley, southwest
to across central LA to southern TX. A pre-frontal trof of low
pressure was moving slowly eastward over the western zones where we
see an area of showers. Instability looks to remain limited, with
just showers expected as the frontal approaches/makes passage.
The front makes passage into the northern Gulf tonight but the
flow aloft generally stays southwesterly where the passage of a
series of mid-level impulses support enough lift to maintain small
PoPs, generally 20% or less. Upstream, a positively tilted upper
trof pivots eastward across the Plains Monday with larger scale
lift increasing and overspreading the Lower MS River Valley. At
the surface, it's more complex with northern Gulf front stalling
out Monday where a wave of frontal low pressure begins to form and
then skirts east northeast over the marine area Monday night.
This feature lifts away Tuesday. At the present time, the cool
sector north of the boundary looks to create a more stable
environment over the land zones Monday and Monday night where the
predominant weather mode is more supportive of likely to
categorical showers with a lower end chance of embedded thunder.
Meanwhile, the Gulf waters to perhaps right along the coast
perhaps more across coastal sections of the Northwest FL
Panhandle could see storms more rooted at the surface east and
southeast of the eventual low track where a bit more instability
over-rides a zone of 0-3KM helicity which could support a few
rotating updrafts. At present time considering the low confidence,
the risk for severe storms is too low for anything higher than a
general storm outlook. Will continue to monitor trends. Rain
chances taper to dry conditions from west to east on Tuesday. Dry
conditions continue Wednesday.
Chances of showers and storms return the latter end of the week as
next storm system moves east across the southern Plains. Another
frontal wave of low pressure also expected to move east northeast
out of the western Gulf Friday and across the central Gulf coast
Friday night into Saturday bringing a return to likely to perhaps
categorical rain chances to the area.
Daytime highs sink to well below normal Tuesday through Thursday
before moderating. Overnight lows trend colder through the middle of
the week. The coldest night looks to be Wednesday morning with lows
plummeting into the mid to upper 20's interior and some 10 to 15
degrees below December 3rd normal. 35 to 40 right along the coast.
Lows also gradually moderate the latter half of the week, but
still cool.
A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Monday,
becoming high Monday night into Tuesday. Rip current risk tapers
to low Wednesday and Thursday. /10
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the afternoon before ceilings fall
to MVFR to IFR this evening. Expect a wind shift this evening from
easterly and southeasterly to more northeasterly as a cold front
slides across the region. Winds will increase on the backside of
the front to near 10 knots with gusts of 15-20 knots at times
this evening. 07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1109 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
A cold front settles just south of the coastal waters late tonight.
A wave of frontal low pressure moves over area waters late Monday.
Onshore flow increases ahead of the low switching to offshore in the
wake of the low Tuesday morning. Winds and gusts may increase to
border-line small craft advisory criteria Monday night into Tuesday.
Seas building. Winds and seas subside Wednesday. The next storm
system approaching from the west brings an increase in onshore winds
and a build seas by the close of the week. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 49 66 47 59 / 20 70 90 20
Pensacola 56 69 55 64 / 20 70 90 30
Destin 56 69 57 66 / 30 70 90 40
Evergreen 46 65 45 58 / 20 60 100 30
Waynesboro 41 59 38 51 / 20 60 100 20
Camden 43 61 39 51 / 20 60 100 30
Crestview 51 68 52 64 / 20 70 90 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 30, 12:55 PM CST ...New UPDATE...--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
3
« on: Today at 03:30:41 AM »
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 3, 2:47 AM EST160
FXUS61 KPBZ 030747
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
247 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry and chilly weather today. A frontal
passage late tonight and early Thursday provides a light snow
accumulation and a reinforcing shot of cold air. Below-normal
temperatures and additional mainly light snow chances should
continue into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Refreezing on untreated surfaces could cause slick spots and
hazardous travel into the morning commute
- Dry and continued cold today
---------------------------------------------------------------
Overcast skies continue to linger through the night. The main
message through the predawn and morning commute hours continues
to be the threat of icy roads. Any moisture that has remained
(especially on untreated roads and sidewalks) has frozen with
temperatures already below freezing and expected to fall into
the lower and mid 20s by dawn. A Special Weather Statement
highlighting this has already been issued.
Dry weather continues through the daylight hours as surface
ridging spreads into the region from a high crossing the Central
Appalachians today. The combination of warm advection aloft and
daytime mixing should allow much of the stratocumulus to break
during the afternoon, leading to some sunshine especially near
and south of Pittsburgh. To the north, the decrease in lower
clouds may be offset by the increase in middle and upper cloud
cover ahead of a cold front. High temperatures today will
continue to run some 10 to 12 degrees below climatology.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cold frontal passage late tonight/Thursday morning provides
light snow accumulation of an inch or less
- Very cold temperatures Thursday night; single digits possible
especially north of Pittsburgh
----------------------------------------------------------------
The next cold front, extending from low pressure well north in
Canada, is still slated for a late night/Thursday morning
passage across the Upper Ohio Valley, providing what is expected
to be a round of light snow.
Synoptic support is fairly weak overall for our region, as the
main shortwave trough swings across the northern Great Lakes and
through Quebec. Also, moisture remains limited as precipitable
water struggles to approach 0.5 inch, which is not
climatologically significant. Still, with snow-to-liquid ratios
of around 15:1 or 16:1, the meager moisture should be able to
translate to a light accumulation of a half-inch to an inch with
the fairly rapid FROPA. NBM probabilities for more than an inch
are generally 30-50 percent near and east of I-79; the Laurels
are the area most likely to reach that threshold given the
potential for upslope enhancement. Areas north of I-80 need to
be monitored as model soundings continue to suggest that some
modest instability and reasonably steep lapse rates into the DGZ
that could support briefly stouter snow showers during peak
heating, which could locally nudge accumulations upward. More
significant snow shower/potential snow squalls should remain
north and east of our region, where better instability, deeper
mixing/steeper lapse rates, and snow squall parameter values
will be realized. Although snow amounts overall will be minor,
the late night/morning timing once again intersects the morning
commute. A headline is not anticipated at this time, but the
impacts to area roads may warrant a Special Weather Statement
issuance as the event approaches.
Snow coverage should largely decrease after noon as the 850mb
thermal trough passes, with some at least partial cloud clearing
before sunset. The reinforcing shot of cold air provided by the
front will help to keep Thursday high temperatures below
freezing in the majority of the CWA. Mixing may provide afternoon
wind gusts to 20 MPH in the lowlands and up to 30 MPH in the
ridges, which may drop wind chill values into the 10 to 20
degree range.
Surface high pressure will once again pay a visit to the region
Thursday night. The combination of a clearing sky, diminishing
wind, and a fresh layer of snow will help to provide what will
be the coldest day of the week and of the young winter season.
The NBM suggests a 50 to 80 percent chance of single-digit low
temperatures in the ridges and most non-urban locations north of
I-70. A few record low temperatures may be in jeopardy; see the
Climate section for details.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Continued below-normal temperatures
- More chances at wintry precipitation into early next week
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall broad troughing pattern should continue into the
weekend and early next week over the northeast CONUS, pointing
to continued below-normal temperatures.
The next shortwave riding the flow generally follows the Ohio
Valley through Friday. This should keep the track of the main
surface low well to our south and east. However, inverted
surface troughing may extend as far north as the Mason-Dixon
Line area, which supports a low probability for light snow
clipping locations south and east of Pittsburgh through the day.
A cold frontal approach and passage Saturday/Saturday night may
provide enough cold advection and lake moisture for low-end snow
shower chances in areas subject to lake enhancement and
terrain-enhanced lift.
Additional shortwaves within the overall trough will continue to
provide precipitation chances into next week. The continued cold
pattern suggests that snow will continue to be the favored precipitation
type.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
-MVFR prevails this morning, scattering to VFR in the afternoon
-Light snow and restrictions return around 06z Thursday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MVFR ceilings should prevail through the morning with lingering
low-levle moisture in place. High pressure will briefly build in
Wednesday with wind backing to the SW around 8-10 kts. This will
help scatter clouds to VFR this afternoon as drier low-level air
also advects in. However, mid-level moisture and associated
cloud cover will increase through the day ahead of the next
approaching cold front.
Light snow and restrictions associated with the next cold front
will begin after around 06z Thursday morning, clearing by
Thursday afternoon.
Outlook...
VFR is expected to return late Thursday and Friday as high
pressure builds in behind the front. Restrictions are possible
again Saturday and Sunday with a crossing cold front.
&&
.CLIMATE...
At least four of our climate sites have a chance to challenge
record low temperatures for December 5 on Friday morning. Two
other sites are less likely to approach their record lows.
Current 12/5 Forecast
Site Record Low low
---- ---------- ------------
Pitt Intl 12 (1976) 10
Morgantown 11 (1974) 12
DuBois 10 (1991) 6
Wheeling 12 (1944) 11
Zanesville 3 (1957) 10
New Philadelphia 2 (1966) 8
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...Rackley/MLB
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 3, 2:47 AM EST--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
4
« on: Today at 03:30:41 AM »
MANSFIELD OH Dec 4 Climate Report: High: 26 Low: 16 Precip: Trace Snow: Trace Snow Depth: 2"859
CDUS41 KCLE 042241
CLIMFD
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH
541 PM EST THU DEC 04 2025
...................................
...THE MANSFIELD OH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 4 2025...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0515 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1916 TO 2025
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 26 754 AM 67 1982 42 -16 38
MINIMUM 16 459 PM 2 1940 28 -12 21
AVERAGE 21 35 -14 30
PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY T 0.09 -0.09 0.10
MONTH TO DATE 0.33 0.38 -0.05 0.10
SINCE DEC 1 0.33 0.38 -0.05 0.10
SINCE JAN 1 39.19 39.85 -0.66 29.38
SNOWFALL (IN)
TODAY T 0.2 -0.2 0.1
MONTH TO DATE 2.9 0.8 2.1 0.2
SINCE DEC 1 2.9 0.8 2.1 0.2
SINCE JUL 1 4.7 3.6 1.1 0.7
SNOW DEPTH 2
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
TODAY 44 30 14 35
MONTH TO DATE 170 118 52 159
SINCE DEC 1 170 118 52 159
SINCE JUL 1 1335 1325 10 1053
COOLING
TODAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0
SINCE DEC 1 0 0 0 0
SINCE JAN 1 827 750 77 1003
...................................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 18 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NW (310)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 24 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION N (340)
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.6
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
FOG
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 100 500 AM
LOWEST 59 300 PM
AVERAGE 80
..........................................................
THE MANSFIELD OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 42 68 2001
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 28 1 1957
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
DECEMBER 4 2025......SUNRISE 738 AM EST SUNSET 502 PM EST
DECEMBER 5 2025......SUNRISE 739 AM EST SUNSET 502 PM EST
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: MANSFIELD OH Dec 4 Climate Report: High: 26 Low: 16 Precip: Trace Snow: Trace Snow Depth: 2"--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
5
« on: Today at 03:30:40 AM »
IWX issues Public Information Statement (PNS) at Dec 2, 6:26 AM EST ...SNOWFALL REPORTS AS OF 6:20 AM EST...593
NOUS43 KIWX 021126
PNSIWX
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216-MIZ078>081-
177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-022326-
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
626 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025
...SNOWFALL REPORTS AS OF 6:20 AM EST...
Location Amount Time/Date Provider
...Indiana...
...Allen County...
3 SE Wallen 3.4 in 0600 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter
2 E Nine Mile 2.2 in 0100 AM 12/02 Official NWS Obs
...Blackford County...
Hartford City 3.5 in 0900 PM 12/01 Public
Montpelier 3.8 WNW 3.5 in 0601 AM 12/02 COCORAHS
...Cass County...
2 ENE Twelve Mile 2.8 in 0230 AM 12/02 Public
Logansport 2.0 in 0900 PM 12/01 Public
2 ENE Twelve Mile 1.5 in 0945 PM 12/01 Public
...De Kalb County...
Auburn 1.2 in 1100 PM 12/01 Public
...Elkhart County...
Wakarusa 2.0 in 1200 AM 12/02 Public
Nappanee 0.9 in 1000 PM 12/01 Public
Elkhart 4.8 SW 0.9 in 0500 AM 12/02 COCORAHS
Goshen 3 SW 0.4 in 0700 PM 12/01 COOP
...Huntington County...
1 S Goblesville 1.9 in 1119 PM 12/01 Public
...Kosciusko County...
2 N North Webster 1.8 in 0100 AM 12/02 Official NWS Obs
...La Porte County...
0.8 W La Porte 1.2 in 1258 AM 12/02 COOP
...Marshall County...
Plymouth 2.3 in 1130 PM 12/01 Public
...Miami County...
Peru 3.0 in 0145 AM 12/02 Public
Grissom Afb 2.0 in 0900 PM 12/01 Public
...St. Joseph County...
South Bend 1.1 in 1130 PM 12/01 COOP
South Bend International 1.1 in 1200 AM 12/02 Official NWS Obs
...Whitley County...
Columbia City 4.6 S 2.6 in 0600 AM 12/02 COCORAHS
...Michigan...
...Berrien County...
Stevensville 1.7 SSE 1.0 in 0527 AM 12/02 COCORAHS
Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.
$$
Source: IWX issues Public Information Statement (PNS) at Dec 2, 6:26 AM EST ...SNOWFALL REPORTS AS OF 6:20 AM EST...--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
6
« on: Today at 03:30:40 AM »
TERRE HAUTE IN Dec 3 Climate Report: High: 30 Low: 20 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing282
CDUS43 KIND 040632
CLIHUF
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
132 AM EST THU DEC 04 2025
...................................
...THE TERRE HAUTE IN CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 3 2025...
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 9999 TO 9999
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
.......................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 30 1159 PM 45 -15 26
MINIMUM 20 105 AM 29 -9 20
AVERAGE 25 37 -12 23
PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.00 0.07 -0.07 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 0.16 0.23 -0.07 T
SINCE DEC 1 0.16 0.23 -0.07 T
SINCE JAN 1 33.96 38.58 -4.62 33.86
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
YESTERDAY 40 28 12 42
MONTH TO DATE 121 83 38 127
SINCE DEC 1 121 83 38 127
SINCE JUL 1 984 1145 -161 859
COOLING
YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0
SINCE DEC 1 0 0 0 0
SINCE JAN 1 1366 1076 290 1315
.......................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 20 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION S (190)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 24 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION S (180)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 9.4
SKY COVER
AVERAGE SKY COVER 1.0
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.
FOG
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 92 800 AM
LOWEST 85 100 PM
AVERAGE 89
..........................................................
THE TERRE HAUTE IN CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 45 MM MM
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 29 MM MM
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
DECEMBER 4 2025......SUNRISE 753 AM EST SUNSET 525 PM EST
DECEMBER 5 2025......SUNRISE 754 AM EST SUNSET 525 PM EST
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: TERRE HAUTE IN Dec 3 Climate Report: High: 30 Low: 20 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
7
« on: Today at 03:30:39 AM »
EVANSVILLE IN Dec 2 Climate Report: High: 32 Low: 23 Precip: 0.07" Snow: 0.8" Snow Depth: 1"184
CDUS43 KPAH 022230
CLIEVV
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
430 PM CST TUE DEC 02 2025
...................................
...THE EVANSVILLE IN CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 2 2025...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0425 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1896 TO 2025
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 32 1248 AM 77 1982 50 -18 31
MINIMUM 23 453 PM 7 1929 32 -9 18
AVERAGE 28 41 -13 25
PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.07 1.81 1991 0.13 -0.06 0.01
MONTH TO DATE 0.09 0.25 -0.16 0.04
SINCE DEC 1 0.09 0.25 -0.16 0.04
SINCE JAN 1 54.88 44.38 10.50 43.11
SNOWFALL (IN)
TODAY 0.8 0.2
MONTH TO DATE 0.8 1.2
SINCE JUL 1 1.1 3.2
SNOW DEPTH 1
...................................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 15 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NW (330)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 24 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NW (320)
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 96
LOWEST 77
..........................................................
THE EVANSVILLE IN CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 49 76 1982
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 32 4 1929
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
DECEMBER 2 2025......SUNRISE 649 AM CST SUNSET 431 PM CST
DECEMBER 3 2025......SUNRISE 650 AM CST SUNSET 430 PM CST
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: EVANSVILLE IN Dec 2 Climate Report: High: 32 Low: 23 Precip: 0.07" Snow: 0.8" Snow Depth: 1"--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
8
« on: Today at 03:30:38 AM »
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 12:23 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...698
FXUS63 KLMK 050523
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1223 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A weak system moves through the TN/OH Valley tonight, which will
bring light snow and mixed precip to south-central and
southeastern Kentucky. Light snow accumulations up to about 1
inch is possible.
* A roller coaster of temperatures awaits us over the next several
days. We will see highs in the low 30s and highs in the upper 40s
on and off each day as cold fronts move through.
* The active weather pattern will bring chances for light precip,
but mainly liquid until late next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025
At this hour, the initial surge of heavier precipitation is moving
through our Lake Cumberland counties. The 01Z RAP analysis shows the
850 mb 0C isotherm very close to that area, with the warmest
temperatures aloft actually showing up around 800 mb per RAP
soundings. As a result, areas along the TN border (in particular
Monroe, Cumberland, and Clinton County) appear to have changed over
to a wintry mix with sleet and possibly some rain mixing in. This
will likely cut down on snowfall totals, though some areas could
still see around 1 inch of snow and sleet through early tomorrow
morning.
Farther to the north and west, precipitation is all snow, though
precipitation rates are generally lighter. An additional band of
flurries and light snow showers is beginning to develop from around
Bowling Green back to near Clarksville, TN. Hi-res guidance suggests
this band should continue to strengthen over the next few hours and
pivot off to the east of I-65. The SPS looks to be well placed for
areas which could receive light accumulations of snow through early
Friday morning.
Along and north of the Parkways, cloudy, dry conditions continue
tonight, with temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s. The main
changes to the forecast at this time were to increase sleet mention
across the Lake Cumberland region over the next few hours, resulting
in a decrease in overall snowfall totals.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025
Low-level moisture under an inversion continues to keep low stratus
over the region. We have seen some areas in southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky break out a bit. This has helped temperatures to
increase just above freezing.
This evening, a weak trough and plenty of CVA will move through the
region. An upper jet will place southern Kentucky under the right
entrance region. At the surface, a low pressure system over the Gulf
coast will extend an inverted surface trough into the lower Ohio
Valley. Present moisture (0.75-0.9 inch PWATs) and large scale lift
will allow for stratiform snow to move over southern Kentucky. There
is a region of enhanced frontogenesis and low-level convergence
along the trough that may lead to moderate snowfall over the Lake
Cumberland region for a few hours. Both deterministic and ensemble
guidance has indicated slightly higher snow totals as well.
Therefore, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Lake
Cumberland region from 0Z to 12Z for snow totals around 1 inch. The
southeastern portion of the region (outside of the advisory) have an
SPS for totals around 0.5 inches. It is possible that some localized
areas will see slightly higher totals. Looking for a pretty wet snow
(lower than normal snow to liquid ratio). Therefore, we could see
some slick spots develop on roads.
Snow will push east of the region before sunrise, but clouds will
remain through most of the day. In the afternoon, we will begin to
break out from NW to SE. Conditions will remain dry and temperatures
a bit warmer than the previous days, in the upper 30s and some lower
40s. Friday night, low stratus will likely increase as low-level
moisture is present.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025
On Saturday, a cold front will approach the region from the
northwest, as the parent upper trough swing through southeastern
Canada. This front will likely stall just northwest of the region.
Meanwhile, the lower Ohio Valley will see some WAA, which will help
temperatures increase into the upper 30s to mid 40s for highs on
Saturday.
On Sunday, a shortwave riding along the broader troughing will push
the cold front through the region and bring a chance for precip.
Given the previous WAA and timing of the system, would expect this
system to bring mostly rain, though it could begin as frozen precip
Sunday morning.
After the front pushes through, high pressure and strong CAA will
build in behind. Temperatures on Monday will be chilly. Wind chills
in the morning will be in the teens over most of the region.
Tuesday, we will see ridging build over the region and temperatures
warm to slightly below normal levels. Deep troughing looks to swing
through the region on Wednesday, bringing a low pressure system
through the northern Ohio Valley. Since we will be under WAA, expect
precip associated with this system to be mostly rain. Though strong
CAA and an occluding low could bring a cold air chasing wrapped
moisture scenario where we see some light frozen precip on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
Restricted flight categories will continue this morning as an area
of low pressure passes through the region and support continued low
cigs for the terminals. Periods of IFR and MVFR are expected through
at least the morning hours, however there is confidence that we will
begin to break out of this persistent stratus deck and may see
terminals return to VFR later on this afternoon and evening. Winds
for today will generally be from the south-southwest.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for KYZ075-078-
081-082.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...CJP
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 12:23 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
9
« on: Today at 03:30:36 AM »
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 4:42 AM EST536
FXUS63 KJKL 050942
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
442 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wintry precipitation, primarily snow, though mixed with sleet,
freezing rain, rain or freezing drizzle, will taper off from the
northwest through late morning.
- Additional light accumulations and travel impacts are probable
for portions of southeast KY, where a Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect.
- The pattern remains active through the end of the forecast
period, although confidence remains low in each passing system's
precipitation type and accumulation forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
Regional radar shows the back edge of the steadier precipitation,
extending from roughly Inez to Somerset at 0830Z, gradually
sinking southeast early this morning. Precipitation has been in
the form of snow for many, but a warm nose of air aloft has led to
some sleet and rain mixing in (both liquid and freezing) across
portions of those counties adjacent to the KY-VA border. Webcams
show minor accumulations across much of the area near and south of
the Mountain Parkway. Temperatures range from the mid-20s north
of I-64, closer to a frigid air mass in place north of the Ohio
River, to the mid-30s in the deepest valleys around Middlesboro
and Harlan. The latest surface analysis shows a frontal boundary
extending north from an approximately 1015 mb low just off the
coast of the Florida Panhandle to a weak wave over the Southern
Appalachians. Well upstream, a weak low pressure system is noted
over Northern Ontario, while a cold front extends southwest into
the Northern Plains. Aloft, a weakly troughed to largely zonal
flow with embedded disturbances is noted across the CONUS east of
the Rockies.
The aforementioned low will pull away to the east this morning,
causing the precipitation shield to shift east with it, likely
exiting the easternmost extreme portions of the CWA by around
10-11 AM EST. Additional snowfall through that time should be an
inch or less and largely in the two tiers of counties adjacent to
the KY-VA border. A weak ridge of high pressure will build across
the Commonwealth later in the day under weak height rises.
However, soundings suggest that moisture will remain trapped under
a sharp low-level inversion, leading to continued low clouds and
ridgetop fog today and tonight. This will continue to limit
diurnal temperature ranges. Meanwhile, the cold front and an
associated upper-level disturbance, initially over the Northern
Plains at the start of the forecast period, will dive southeast.
The front stalls northwest of the Commonwealth, deserted by the
upper-level energy which passes over eastern Kentucky on Saturday.
Soundings suggest sufficient mid-level moistening for at least a
few flurries or sprinkles over the northern third to half of the
forecast area, but overall moisture and lift will be minimal.
Abundant cloud cover will once again limit diurnal heating.
In sensible terms, look for lingering snow or mixed precipitation
over southeastern Kentucky to taper off from the northwest
through late this morning. Abundant cloud cover and ridgetop fog
will then persist through the remainder of the period. There will
be a low chance for a few more sprinkles or flurries on Saturday,
primarily near and north of the Mountain Parkway, with no impacts
anticipated. Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to peak in
the low to mid-30s north to the lower 40s in deep southeastern
valleys. For tonight, anticipate some fog in addition to the low
clouds, as temperatures sink back into the 25F to 30F range. On
Saturday, temperatures should be slightly warmer, ranging from the
mid-30s to mid-40s, north to south.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 438 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
After a cold and dry start to the long term forecast period on
Saturday evening, wet weather looks to return to Eastern Kentucky on
Sunday. A shortwave disturbance is forecast to propagate towards the
Ohio River Valley in this time frame as better-defined midlevel
troughing lingers over the Great Lakes. The cold front associated
with that troughing will likely come to a crawl north of the
forecast area on Saturday night. The approach of that secondary
disturbance on Sunday will shift winds in the lower portions of the
column towards the southwest before the surface cold front gets
dragged into the forecast area on Sunday evening. Thus, warm air
advection will allow temperatures to climb into the mid/upper 40s on
Sunday afternoon as increasing atmospheric moisture leads to
widespread PoPs. Precipitation is forecast to begin as rain on
Sunday afternoon, although potent cold air advection on the backside
of the boundary will lead to plummeting temperatures on Sunday
night. Guidance collectively depicts subzero 850mb temperatures
spreading across the forecast area after sunset, which supports some
snowflakes mixing in as precipitation tapers off from NW to SE
overnight. LREF Grand Ensemble probabilities of accumulating
snowfall have ticked up relative to this time yesterday. There is
currently a 40-60% chance of seeing at least 0.1 inches of snow in
most of the forecast area for the 24 hour period ending at 1PM
Monday. The highest probabilities continue to be depicted in
locations north and east of the KY-15 corridor, but these values
steadily drop off with increasing accumulation thresholds. This
reinforces the idea that QPF with this system will be rather light,
and the risk for widespread winter weather impacts currently appears
low. Nevertheless, we will closely monitor trends in the data as
this system enters the temporal range of higher-resolution forecast
models.
A continental high pressure system is forecast to build into the
area in the wake of this system, leading to persistent cold air
advection via north-northeasterly flow on Monday. After widespread
mornings lows in the 20s, temperatures will struggle to climb much
higher than the mid 30s. If post-frontal low-level stratus hangs
around into the afternoon hours and there is snow on the ground,
temperatures could under-perform the current forecast MaxT values.
The high shifts east overnight into Tuesday, which should foster a
clearing trend and a return to SW surface flow by Tuesday afternoon.
Ridge-valley temperature splits appear possible on Monday night,
with MinTs in the lower 20s possibly dropping down into the teens in
the coolest valleys. Warm air advection will allow temps to recover
into the low/mid 40s on Tuesday afternoon, setting the stage for a
warmer, wet, and windy Wednesday.
Models develop a rather deep surface low pressure system to the
northwest of the forecast area by midweek as southwesterly flow
continues around the backside of the surface high here in the
commonwealth. In response to the tightening pressure gradient, winds
will intensify and become quite gusty. The GFS remains much more
aggressive than its European counterparts with Wednesday's winds,
but confidence is increasing in the potential for gusts in excess of
25-30 mph. Regardless of wind magnitude, the strong SW flow regime
will lead to rather efficient warm air advection. Forecast highs
have trended upwards accordingly, and locations south of the I-64
corridor could see MaxTs in the lower 50s on Wednesday afternoon. As
the aforementioned low and its frontal boundaries approach the area
on Wednesday, precipitation chances will increase. The antecedent
warmth favors a plain, liquid rain at the onset of the system, but
the exact evolution of the synoptic pattern into Thursday remains
uncertain. A changeover to wintery precipitation cannot be ruled out
on the backside of this system, but it remains difficult to pinpoint
specific details regarding accumulations and p-type timing at this
moment in time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025
IFR or lower conditions with snow and fog are generally expected
at the terminals for the remainder of the overnight, with the
exception being KSYM where MVFR cigs are expected and no
precipitation. Snow should continue spreading east through 09Z
and and then begin to taper off from the west thereafter. A brief
mix with freezing rain or rain may occur before the precipitation
tapers off into early Friday. Reduced ceilings of MVFR north and
IFR or lower south should linger through the TAF period even as
the precipitation tapers during the 12Z to 18Z timeframe. Winds
will generally be light and variable throughout the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for KYZ068-
069-079-080-083>086-107-109-112-114-116.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ087-
088-110-113-115-117>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 4:42 AM EST--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
10
« on: Today at 03:30:34 AM »
4 NE Urbana [Champaign Co, OH] Trained Spotter reports Snow of 4.00 Inch at 10:54 AM EST --700
NWUS51 KILN 022005
LSRILN
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
305 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1054 AM Snow 4 NE Urbana 40.15N 83.69W
12/02/2025 M4.0 Inch Champaign OH Trained Spotter
&&
$$
HATZOS
Source: 4 NE Urbana [Champaign Co, OH] Trained Spotter reports Snow of 4.00 Inch at 10:54 AM EST ----------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
11
« on: Today at 03:30:34 AM »
Police find 'I hate my child' search made on couple's device 2 days before boy, 12, died The first-degree murder trial of Brandy Cooney and Becky Hamber in Milton, Ont., heard texts in which the women questioned whether a boy in their care might be dying a month before his death in December 2022. Source: Police find 'I hate my child' search made on couple's device 2 days before boy, 12, died----------------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
12
« on: Today at 03:30:34 AM »
BOX continues Winter Weather Advisory for Hartford, Tolland [CT] till Dec 3, 7:00 AM EST128
WWUS41 KBOX 021927
WSWBOX
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
227 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025
MAZ002-008-009-030830-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-251203T1200Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Blandford, and Chesterfield
227 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow. Snow accumulations between 4 and 10 inches.
Highest amounts north of I-90.
* WHERE...Western Franklin MA, Western Hampden MA, and Western
Hampshire MA Counties.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
will impact the evening commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.
&&
$$
MAZ003-004-026-030830-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-251203T1200Z/
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Greenfield, Fitchburg, Ayer, Barre, and
Orange
227 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow. Snow accumulations between 3 and 10 inches.
Higher amounts in the higher terrain north of I-90.
* WHERE...Northern Worcester MA, Northern Middlesex MA, and Eastern
Franklin MA Counties.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
will impact the evening commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.
&&
$$
CTZ004-RIZ001-030830-
/O.EXA.KBOX.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-251203T1200Z/
Windham CT-Northwest Providence RI-
Including the cities of Foster, Willimantic, Putnam, and
Smithfield
227 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Mixed precipitation with the main concern in the hills of
Windham and northwest Providence county with temperatures near
freezing. Additional snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch
and ice accumulations around a light glaze.
* WHERE...In Connecticut, Windham CT County. In Rhode Island,
Northwest Providence RI County. The main concern is for the higher
hills in Windham and northwest Providence county.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the evening commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
&&
$$
CTZ002-003-030830-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-251203T1200Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-
Including the cities of Windsor Locks, Union, Hartford, and
Vernon
227 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow and sleet
accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around a light
glaze.
* WHERE...Hartford CT and Tolland CT Counties.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning
commutes.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
&&
$$
MAZ005-006-030830-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-251203T1200Z/
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-
Including the cities of Lawrence, Lowell, and Framingham
227 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Snow. Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.
* WHERE...Central Middlesex MA and Western Essex MA Counties.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the the evening commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
&&
$$
MAZ010>012-030830-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-251203T1200Z/
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Amherst, Milford, Northampton, Worcester,
and Springfield
227 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Snow. Snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches.
* WHERE...Southern Worcester MA, Eastern Hampden MA, and Eastern
Hampshire MA Counties.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the evening commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
&&
$$
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/box
Frank
Source: BOX continues Winter Weather Advisory for Hartford, Tolland [CT] till Dec 3, 7:00 AM EST---------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
13
« on: December 06, 2025, 09:29:02 PM »
Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #2227 concerning TORNADO WATCH 639...640 [Most Prob: Tornado: 100-130 MPH, Hail: UP TO 1.25 IN, Gust: 55-70 MPH]658
ACUS11 KWNS 250728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250728
MSZ000-LAZ000-250900-
Mesoscale Discussion 2227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Areas affected...Northeast LA into central/southern MS
Concerning...Tornado Watch 639...640...
Valid 250728Z - 250900Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 639, 640 continues.
SUMMARY...Some tornado and wind-damage threat will spread
east-northeast with time overnight.
DISCUSSION...A large southwest to northwest oriented storm cluster
is ongoing early this morning from LA into central/northern MS. A
midlevel shortwave trough currently near the ArkLaTex region, and an
associated strong low-level jet, will sustain this convection
overnight as it moves east-northeastward through a moist and
modestly unstable environment. Strong deep-layer shear (generally
50-60 kt) will continue to sustain organized convection with a
threat of wind damage, while enlarged hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH of
greater than 300 m2/s2 per the KDGX VWP) will support some tornado
potential with any persistent supercell structures or line-embedded
circulations.
A tendency for the composite outflow to sag southeastward may
continue to temper the severe threat to some extent. However, the
strong low-level jet will aid in the northeastward expansion of
richer boundary-layer moisture and modest surface-based buoyancy
with time. A potentially severe line segment currently approaching
the LA/MS border will likely persist as it moves near and south of
the outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone. Farther north/east, marginal
supercells currently north of Jackson, MS (as of 0725 UTC) could
pose a tornado and isolated wind-damage threat, if they remain in
the effective warm sector. Some severe threat will eventually spread
east/northeast of WW 640, which could eventually necessitate local
watch expansion or new watch issuance.
..Dean/Hart.. 11/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31689188 32869066 33128953 32958908 32588908 32288919
31658959 31389031 31259175 31689188
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Source: Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #2227 concerning TORNADO WATCH 639...640 [Most Prob: Tornado: 100-130 MPH, Hail: UP TO 1.25 IN, Gust: 55-70 MPH]--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
14
« on: December 06, 2025, 09:29:02 PM »
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 30, 5:26 AM CST ...New AVIATION...925
FXUS64 KMOB 301126
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
526 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
- Strong offshore flow may create hazardous conditions for small
craft over the open Gulf waters late Monday night into Tuesday.
- There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
area beaches through Monday. A high rip current risk is
expected for Monday night and Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
An upper trof progresses across the interior eastern states
through Sunday night, with an associated surface low meanwhile
bringing a cold front through the forecast area during the day on
Sunday. Instability looks to remain limited, with just showers
expected with the frontal passage. Have gone with mostly chance
to likely pops for Sunday, with the higher pops over southeast
Mississippi and interior portions of southwest Alabama. Slight
chance to chance pops follow for Sunday night. A positively
tilted upper trof meanwhile advances across the western states on
Sunday then takes on a more meridional orientation while
traversing the central states Monday into Monday night. The upper
trof weakens while continuing across the eastern states Tuesday
into Tuesday night. A surface low develops over the northwest Gulf
on Monday and then is expected to move across the portion of the
forecast area east of I-65 Monday night before continuing well
away from the area. This trajectory and the short turn around time
from Sunday's frontal passage will limit the potential for
instability to improve much before this system moves through. That
said, there's still uncertainty with the trajectory of the
surface low, and it's possible that sufficient instability could
be realized over the western Florida panhandle and possibly
coastal Alabama to warrant concern. Will continue to monitor at
this point. Have gone with chance to likely pops on Monday, then
categorical pops follow for Monday night. Rain chances taper to
dry conditions from west to east on Tuesday.
Dry conditions follow for Wednesday while another positively
tilted upper trof advances into the western half of the CONUS. The
upper trof looks to split substantially, with a portion
continuing quickly across the northeast states Thursday while the
remainder slowly advances into the central states on Friday. It's
possible that a cut off upper low may even manage to form near
the Baja area. This all makes for a rather uncertain upper and
surface pattern going into Friday and Saturday. That said, there
appears to be a general consensus for another surface low to
develop over the northwest Gulf Thursday into Thursday night which
then moves across the marine area or possibly the southern
portion of the forecast area Friday into Friday night. Have gone
with chance pops for Thursday then likely pops follow for Friday
with chance pops for Saturday. Will continue to monitor. Overnight
lows tend to remain above seasonable values through the period
except for Tuesday night when lows range from the mid/upper 20s
well inland to the mid/upper 30s at the coast. Daytime highs will
be near seasonable values except for Tuesday through Thursday when
highs tend to range from the 50s well inland to lower/mid 60s at
the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through
Monday, with a high risk for Monday night and Tuesday. A moderate
risk follows for Tuesday night, then a low risk is expected for
Wednesday and Thursday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
VFR flight category prevails across the region this morning, with
ceilings dropping to MVFR flight category this afternoon and
locally IFR this evening. A cold front pushes across the area late
this afternoon into the evening, with winds shifting from
northeasterly to northerly. Winds this afternoon will also
increase in the wake of the front to near 10 knots gusting upwards
of 15 to 20 knots at times this evening. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Light to moderate easterly winds switch to the northeast on Sunday
as a cold front moves through. The offshore flow becomes moderate to
occasionally strong Sunday night then a southeasterly flow develops
on Monday. Winds become northwesterly late Monday night into early
Tuesday morning as another cold front moves through. A Small Craft
Advisory may become necessary for the open Gulf waters late Monday
night into Tuesday morning, possibly into the afternoon. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 69 50 66 49 / 40 20 50 90
Pensacola 71 56 69 55 / 30 20 50 90
Destin 71 56 70 58 / 30 30 50 90
Evergreen 68 45 66 47 / 40 30 50 90
Waynesboro 57 41 57 40 / 70 30 60 90
Camden 59 43 60 41 / 60 20 50 90
Crestview 72 51 68 53 / 30 30 40 90
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 30, 5:26 AM CST ...New AVIATION...--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
15
« on: December 06, 2025, 09:29:01 PM »
PBZ expires Winter Weather Advisory for Fayette Ridges, Higher Elevations of Indiana, Westmoreland Ridges [PA] and Eastern Preston, Eastern Tucker, Preston, Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston, Western Tucker [WV]653
WWUS41 KPBZ 030235
WSWPBZ
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
935 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025
PAZ074-076-078-WVZ510>514-030345-
/O.EXP.KPBZ.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-251203T0300Z/
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Indiana-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and
Northwestern Preston-Preston-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-
Eastern Tucker-
Including the cities of Ligonier, Rowlesburg, Thomas, Coopers Rock,
Terra Alta, Kingwood, Parsons, Champion, Donegal, Hendricks, Armagh,
Davis, Canaan Valley, Ohiopyle, Saint George, Hazelton, and Bruceton
Mills
935 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
The threat has ended.
$$
Lupo
Source: PBZ expires Winter Weather Advisory for Fayette Ridges, Higher Elevations of Indiana, Westmoreland Ridges [PA] and Eastern Preston, Eastern Tucker, Preston, Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston, Western Tucker [WV]--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
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