BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 9:58 AM EST
696
FXUS61 KBOX 261458
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
958 AM EST Tue Nov 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A quick moving low pressure system moves across southern New
England today. This will bring widespread rainfall for a time
into the late afternoon. Wednesday becomes cooler, breezy,
through remains dry. Thanksgiving features unsettled conditions
as mainly rain overspreads the region with some higher terrain
snow possible. Drying out Friday into this coming weekend with
below normal temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
955 AM update...
Robust mid level shortwave lifts NE from the Gt Lakes and
passes to the north this afternoon. Area of rain within the deep
moisture plume will be quickly moving though SNE today. Looking
at a 4-6 hour period of rain, exiting CT valley by early
afternoon and exiting the coast by late afternoon as pronounced
dry slot moves in. Rainfall generally between 0.10-0.30 inch.
The highest totals are expected along and north of Route 2 in
northern MA.
Triple point low expected to develop near the south coast which will
halt the northward progression of the warm front which will
remain south of the MA Pike. Temps will reach into the mid 50s
south of the low track, primarily across portions of RI and SE
MA, with 40s to the north and west, and likely remaining in the
upper 30s across northern Worcester county.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure should build into the central Appalachians tonight
into Wednesday. This will maintain dry weather across southern
New England, along with a steady west wind. Thinking it will be
gusty tonight with the initial arrival of colder air, then the
pressure gradient relaxes Wednesday. Near to slightly above
normal temperatures tonight should transition to near to
slightly below normal temperatures Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points
*Rain and elevation snow looking more likely Thanksgiving Day
into Friday
*Lingering rain and snow showers with colder temperatures Friday
night through the weekend.
A Low-pressure system develops off the southern Rockies on
Wednesday and quickly moves east and up the coast on Thursday.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance is coming into better
agreement on taking the path of the low across the Cape and the
Islands. Without cold air in place ahead of this system,
expecting the Ptype to be rain across the coastal plain and low
elevations. Higher elevations will likely see snow mix in with
rain, with the possibility of accumulating snow at elevations
above 1000 ft. NBM probabilities in the high terrain of the
Berkshires show 80-90% for 1 inch of snow and 40-50% for 3
inches of snow. This aligns well with the NAM and GFS, which
shows 1- 3 inches positive snow depth change in the Berkshires.
As for QPF for the rest of the region, PWATS around .80 inches,
and sufficient forcing should result in a widespread beneficial
rain. NBM probs for 1.0 inch of QPF range from 50% in northwest
MA to 80% over the Cape and Islands. NBM even shows low probs of
10-20% for 2 inches of rain across RI and southeast MA.
Temperatures on Thanksgiving day have trended cooler into the
mid-30s for the interior, to low-40s closer to the coast. The
Cape and Islands may even see low 50s being closer to the warm
sector of the low. Similar temperatures Friday, but winds turn
to the northwest, advecting in colder air for Friday night into
the weekend. High temperatures for the weekend will be
noticeably colder, only in the low to mid-30s. Low temperatures
should drop into the low to mid- 20s, with high teens possible
in northwest MA. There could be lingering rain/snow showers
through the weekend with cyclonic flow aloft. Not expecting any
accumulations with these showers, especially with the lack of
mid-level moisture.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today: High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.
VFR to start, with deterioration to MVFR and possible IFR
ceilings with 4-6 SM -RA as frontal system moves through. SE to
S winds around 5-10 kt through early afternoon, with winds
becoming WSW/W after 18z from west to east. Conditions gradually
improve behind the rain in the 22-03z timeframe.
Tonight and Wednesday...High confidence.
VFR with a trend towards clear skies after 27/04z. Breezy
overnight with west winds 8-12 knots with localized gusts across
the higher terrain and coast to 20 knots.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
VFR. Ceilings move in by 12z, lowering through 18z. Rain pushes
in from west in the 12-15z timeframe. IFR ceilings are possible
late morning-early afternoon. SE winds shift to SW around
20z/21z. Improvements to VFR 22z to 00z.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
VFR, MVFR ceilings and -RA by 12z/14z. IFR ceilings possible
after 15z through early afternoon. ESE wind becoming WNW around
18z/20z. Improvements to VFR 21z to 23z.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
RA.
Thanksgiving Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
RA, SN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA.
Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.
Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
955 AM update...
Expanded the SCA to all nearshore waters, except for Boston
Harbor and Narragansett Bay. Expect gusts to 25 kt this
afternoon over south coastal waters with the low level jet, then
WNW gusts to 25 kt this evening over all nearshore waters.
Previous discussion...
A quick moving system will bring a period of higher winds/waves
with gusts up to 25 kts and wave heights 4-6 ft for the outer
coastal waters. This develops this afternoon into early evening
from south to north. Small Craft Advisories continue through
Wednesday morning.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.
Thanksgiving Day: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain.
Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 20 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight
chance of rain.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ232>235-
237.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon EST
Wednesday for ANZ250-254.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/KP
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...Belk/KP
MARINE...Belk/KJC/KP
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 9:58 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202411261458-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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