ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 6:43 AM EST
477
FXUS61 KILN 261143
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
643 AM EST Tue Nov 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Morning clouds will decrease as high pressure begins to build
into the area today. This high will offer dry weather today and
tonight. An area of low pressure will pass south of the region
on Wednesday, initially bringing rain which then mixes with and
transitions to snow Wednesday night into Thursday. Some minor
travel impacts are possible, mainly north of Interstate 70.
Much colder air will settle in for the end of the week into the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level flow becomes westerly with surface high pressure
building into the area. Clouds will erode from the west giving
way to increasing sunshine this afternoon. Some high level
clouds begin to spill into the area late in the day. Highs to
range near 40 northwest to 50 southeast. Gusty west winds at 10
to 15 mph will decrease later this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Westerly mid level flow with surface high pressure sliding east
of the area tonight. Mid and high level clouds will increase
tonight, especially in the latter part of the night. Lows
tonight to range from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Isentropic lift develops Wednesday afternoon ahead of a surface
low moving into the Lower MS Valley. Expect rain chances to
increase Wednesday afternoon with the best chance across Eastern
Indiana and Western Ohio. High temperatures to range from the
lower 40s northwest to the upper 40s southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A lower latitude disturbance moving from the southern Plains into
the Kentucky Valley will bring precipitation Wednesday night.
Initially, the thermal profile supports rain across the region, with
highest QPF in the south closest to the probable track of the
surface low.
The ensembles are becoming well clustered with the path of the
surface low, though potential snowfall amounts vary from member to
member. The EPS mean snowfall on Wednesday night shows around 2
inches across around northern CWA with the control member less than
an inch. The GEFS mean offers around an inch with the control member
just a trace. The deterministic NAM remains a higher outlier
solution with 3-4 inches.
Due to high temperatures in the 40s on Wednesday, pavement
temperatures will likely remain above freezing Wednesday night and
will not be supportive of significant impacts to roads. However,
snow will bring the potential for decreased visibility along with
localized slick spots on bridges/overpasses due to temperatures
falling to near freezing by Thursday morning north of Interstate 70.
Based on this information, feel it remains prudent to message the
potential for minor holiday travel impacts in the HWO. However,
there is little ensemble support for heavy snowfall and
significant impacts to travel, so believe further headlines are
not required at this time.
The longwave pattern will begin to change behind this system late
week. A trough will dig across the eastern United States while
ridging builds out West. It appears some weak, reinforcing shortwave
energy will dive southeast through the Great Lakes at times, so
there remains a chance of periodic light snow. Temperatures will be
cold through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low clouds linger across the TAF sites in the wake of a cold
front that has pushed east of the area overnight. MVFR ceilings
to persist through the early morning. Clearing will develop
late this morning through early afternoon with VFR conditions
continuing through tonight. Expect some increase in mid and high
level clouds late tonight into early Wednesday.
Northwest 10 to 15 knots early this morning will become more
westerly around 10 kts during the daylight hours and the back
southwest at less than 10 kts this evening and then southeast
late.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely
Wednesday night into Thursday. MVFR ceilings may linger Thursday
night into Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 6:43 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202411261143-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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