JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 24, 7:11 AM EST
188
FXUS63 KJKL 241211
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
711 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Milder temperatures will return today and Monday before rain
arrives with our next cold front Monday afternoon through
Monday night.
- Another round of more significant rain is possible late in the
week, centered around the Thanksgiving holiday. Rain may
transition to a wintry mix or light snow Thursday night into Friday
before ending.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 711 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2024
Several locations dipped a few degrees below their forecast low
this morning. The only significant change was to update hourly
temperatures using the latest observed conditions as the
initialization to the forecast. As this does not impact the
forecast, text product updates are not needed. However, the edits
have been saved and uploaded to the NDFD database.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 352 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2024
Eastern Kentucky will reside on the southern periphery of west-
northwesterly flow aloft today, with low-amplitude ridging
building across the state tonight, followed by increasing west-
southwest flow as the next upper trough and surface cold front
approach from the west Monday. By early Monday evening, a cold
front is progged to be from near Detroit to Paducah to Memphis,
moving east toward eastern Kentucky.
Warm advection continues to increase across the area today while
low-level thicknesses increase and drier mid-level air moves into
the region. All of this supports seeing a lot more sun today
compared to previous days, along with warmer conditions with highs
rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s southwest.
Low-level southwest winds continue to strengthen and impinge on
eastern Kentucky from the west. With strengthening warm advection
above a nighttime inversion and little in the way of cloud cover,
significant ridge-valley splits in temperatures are expected with
lows in the lower 40s on ridges while coldest valley temperatures
could dip to the lower 30s, or perhaps even a few upper 20s in
the coldest spots. Cloud cover will begin to rapidly increase from
west to east across the area toward dawn.
Increasing cloud cover is expected Monday under a strong warm
advection regime, with isolated to scattered rain showers by mid-
afternoon increasing to numerous showers by late afternoon and
early evening Monday. Despite the cloud cover, the strong warm
advection will allow for highs to reach the lower to mid 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 441 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2024
Monday evening will see a mature upper level low, centered over
Manitoba, with a comma tail of showers extending along a cold front
from the Great Lakes, thorough Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, all the way
down to Louisiana. These showers will have likely started earlier in
the afternoon Monday. These showers will depart eastern Kentucky in
the early morning hours Tuesday. In general, most areas stand to
pick up a tenth or two of rainfall, with some locally heavier
amounts in the most persistent rain bands. After the system begins
departing the area Tuesday, highs will rise into the lower 50s,
under clearing skies. Lows are forecasted to hover around or just
below freezing.
Out west, an upper level low enhanced with moisture from an
atmospheric river, will move across the Desert Southwest Tuesday.
Dry conditions will persist through Wednesday across eastern
Kentucky with highs in the low to mid 50s. Clouds will increase
throughout the day and into the evening, as the system out west
will combine with some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to produce
rain Wednesday night. Some thunderstorms can't be ruled out south
of Kentucky Highway 80 and west of US Highway 421. These
thunderstorm chances taper off by midday Thursday. Rain continues
though Thursday. Highs will remain in the low to mid 50s. As
cooler air moves into the area and winds shift to out of the
northwest, rain may transition to a wintry mix or light snow
before ending Friday.
Much cooler conditions are forecasted Friday and the weekend, with
highs each day in the mid to upper 30s. Lows also cool off quiet
nicely, in the low 20s Friday and Saturday night, dipping into the
teens Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period, with the possible
exception of some fog through ~13z at some TAF sites (though this
is low confidence). Extensive high-level cloud cover will cross
the area today, with an overcast low-cloud deck moving into the
region from the west at the very end of the TAF period (or just
beyond) Monday morning. The other concern will be LLWS developing
overnight tonight as southwesterly low-level winds increase just
above the nighttime inversion ahead of an approaching cold front.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 24, 7:11 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202411241211-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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