JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 24, 3:53 AM EST
782
FXUS63 KJKL 240853
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
353 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Milder temperatures will return today and Monday before rain
arrives with our next cold front Monday afternoon through
Monday night.
- Another round of more significant rain is possible late in the
week, centered around the Thanksgiving holiday. Rain may
transition to a wintry mix or light snow Thursday night into Friday
before ending.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 352 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2024
Eastern Kentucky will reside on the southern periphery of west-
northwesterly flow aloft today, with low-amplitude ridging
building across the state tonight, followed by increasing west-
southwest flow as the next upper trough and surface cold front
approach from the west Monday. By early Monday evening, a cold
front is progged to be from near Detroit to Paducah to Memphis,
moving east toward eastern Kentucky.
Warm advection continues to increase across the area today while
low-level thicknesses increase and drier mid-level air moves into
the region. All of this supports seeing a lot more sun today
compared to previous days, along with warmer conditions with highs
rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s southwest.
Low-level southwest winds continue to strengthen and impinge on
eastern Kentucky from the west. With strengthening warm advection
above a nighttime inversion and little in the way of cloud cover,
significant ridge-valley splits in temperatures are expected with
lows in the lower 40s on ridges while coldest valley temperatures
could dip to the lower 30s, or perhaps even a few upper 20s in
the coldest spots. Cloud cover will begin to rapidly increase from
west to east across the area toward dawn.
Increasing cloud cover is expected Monday under a strong warm
advection regime, with isolated to scattered rain showers by mid-
afternoon increasing to numerous showers by late afternoon and
early evening Monday. Despite the cloud cover, the strong warm
advection will allow for highs to reach the lower to mid 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
An active pattern is still on tap across the country in the
extended portion of the forecast. A strong trough aloft will be
moving out to sea just offshore of northern New England. A second
trough will be moving quickly across the northern CONUS and
through the Great Lakes region to start off. Another large and
powerful system will also be churning its way into the Pacific
Northwest and southwest Canada on Monday. A couple of elongated
ridges will be in place aloft, one over the Eastern Seaboard and
the southeastern CONUS, with another similar ridge in place over
the Rocky Mountains and Desert Southwest. Our first weather maker
will be the Great Lakes/northern CONUS trough, which will race
eastward into New England from Monday through Tuesday. The cold
front extending southward from the upper low will bring widespread
rain to eastern Kentucky late Monday through Monday night. The
last few showers should exit our area by around 6 am Tuesday
morning, as a cold front moves off to our east.
High pressure will then settle over the region for a short while,
and will bring dry and much cooler weather to eastern Kentucky for
the Tuesday and Wednesday time frame. Highs on both of those days
will likely on crack the upper 40s and lower 50s around our area.
The dry pattern will not last long, however, as the once West
Coast trough comes barreling toward the Ohio and Tennessee
valleys late on Wednesday. This system's associated surface
reflection will move into our region as it takes shape over and
exits the Great Plains. This low will strengthen on its way to the
East Coast, and will bring widespread rainfall and blustery
conditions to eastern Kentucky on Wednesday night and Thursday.
This system could also bring widespread rainfall, and perhaps a
bit of snow, to New England and the mid-Atlantic regions as it
moves through. Eastern Kentucky could also see a rain/snow mix, or
even periods of light snow, Thursday night through Friday night,
as the upper low moves off to our east and colder air spills into
the region behind it.
Temperatures during the extended look to be below normal on
average. The only exception looks to Monday, when we could see
daytime maxes in the lower 60s around the area. After that, with a
couple of systems ushering colder air into the region, daily
highs only make it into the upper 40s and lower 50s through
Thursday. After the second large trough passes through Friday and
Saturday, we will see another major cool down. Highs heading into
Thanksgiving weekend might only make it into the upper 30s to
lower 40s across eastern Kentucky. The couple of days after
Thanksgiving could end up feeling and looking quite winter-like
across eastern Kentucky. Nightly lows will also be quite cool at
times, and will drop into the 30s most nights, but we could see
lows in the 20s around the area heading into Thanksgiving weekend.
There are no significant weather hazards to speak of at this
time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2024
MVFR cigs will continue to diminish from the southwest through
09z, lingering longest at KSYM. Fog is developing from south to
north, generally developing a couple of hours after the clearing
takes place. Satellite shows fog forming across parts of the Upper
Cumberland River Valley, and will likely expand into the Kentucky
River Valley over the next few hours. With confidence in fog
formation low at KSME and KLOZ, will monitor trends and may need
to update to include fog in the TAFs, but for now will leave out
of the 06z TAF package.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...CMC
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 24, 3:53 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202411240853-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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