CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 24, 3:27 AM EST
784
FXUS61 KCLE 240827 AAC
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
327 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will move across the Ohio Valley today. The
high will drift into the Mid Atlantic tonight as low pressure
develops in the Mississippi Valley and lifts through the Great
Lakes Monday. This system will push a cold front through the
region Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
The weather will be relatively quiet today into tonight before
the next storm system begins to move into the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes region late Monday. There are still some lingering
lake effect rain showers over far NEOH and NWPA this morning. A
few lake effect rain showers may continue throughout the day
today over NWPA. A weak high pressure system will build into the
Upper Ohio Valley today before moving off towards the Mid-
Atlantic region tonight. Overcast skies and cloud cover will
stay around for today through Monday. High temperatures will
remain in the middle to upper 40s. Quiet weather with cloudy
skies will be around tonight with overnight lows in the 30s.
An area of low pressure will track from the Midwest into the
Great Lakes region on Monday. There will be a trailing cold
front that will start to move through the Ohio Valley late on
Monday. Scattered rain showers will move start to move in from
the west during the morning. Likely POPs of rain showers will
spread over the area Monday afternoon. Southerly flow ahead of
the approaching cold front will warm temperatures into the mid
to 50s Monday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Digging surface low moves northeastward into the northern Great
Lakes, and a cold front begins cutting across the CWA Monday night.
The upper level low with this system is going to signal the
beginning of a longer period of time of predominant upper level
troughing over the Great Lakes. Line of showers ahead of/with the
cold front becomes low chances for showers Tuesday in low
level/surface winds becoming westerly off Lake Erie. This could
transition to light snow inland Tuesday night as temperatures drop
below freezing in a colder airmass filtering in. Lake still keeps
the lakeshore areas a bit warmer and just above freezing. Meanwhile,
as this low level moisture stream comes to an end, the next system
will be forming in the southern high plains region as an upper
trough axis ejects out of the Rockies. As this system works towards
the lower Ohio Valley, expecting a warm front to move into the CWA
Wednesday suggesting some potential overrunning, warranting low POPs
for the CWA. All in all, the pattern is progressive and busy with
the CWA back on the cooler end of the spectrum of temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term portion of the forecast is where things will really
start to get interesting. The surface low at the end of the short
term forecast period will take a track east northeastward along the
Ohio Valley and into coastal New England. Rain/snow chances on the
increase with the precipitation shield on the northern extent
expected to reach most of the CWA, then continue in wraparound
moisture in the wake of the system. Temperatures marginal for frozen
precipitation with Wednesday night lows around freezing and some low
level warm air advection with the cyclonic flow possible, with all
rain Thursday in the upper 30s to lower 40s. At this point, a lot of
details need to unfold for the exact evolution of the forecast that
are just a little too far out at this point. But the long and short
of it is to expect a combination of upper level troughs swinging
through that will reinforce the cold air push into the southern
Great Lakes and add a forcing mechanism for additional
precipitation, while the low level flow becomes conducive for lake
effect precipitation, likely turning to mainly snow Thursday night
and beyond. Areas prone to lake effect should watch the upcoming
forecasts for some possible extended periods of lake effect snow as
models are already pointing to surface troughing over Lake Erie. By
the time the weekend comes around, upper 20s to around 30F should be
expected for high temperatures in the coldest air of the season so
far.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Lower end MVFR to IFR ceilings are impacting aviation weather
conditions through this early Sunday morning. Ceilings are
expected to continue to lower to IFR for most TAF sites except
for ERI through this morning. MFD and CAK may lower to LIFR by
10z through 15z this morning. Ceilings will come up to lower end
MVFR after 18z this afternoon with most locations becoming VFR
ceilings at 10K or more by late afternoon through the evening.
CLE and ERI will likely stay in the MVFR ceilings through this
afternoon and evening. Winds will be from the west-southwest 5
to 10 knots this morning. Winds will decrease to light and
variable or a light southerly wind 5 knots or less by this
afternoon and evening.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely in rain and low ceilings Monday into
Tuesday. Non-VFR possible again in rain and/or snow Wednesday
night through Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds southwesterly 10-15kts today become offshore tonight into
Monday 10-20kts ahead of a cold front. Expecting wave heights
1-3ft away from shore during this period before a cold front
cuts across Lake Erie west to east Monday night with winds
becoming westerly at a stout 25-30kts. Expect wave heights east
of the islands to be in the 6-9ft range late Monday night
through early Tuesday night during this period of stronger winds
on Lake Erie. A brief period of variable winds Wednesday night
becomes onshore once again for Thursday and beyond.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
LEZ144>147.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ148-
149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...26
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 24, 3:27 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202411240827-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE-AAC)
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