CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 22, 3:51 PM EST
512
FXUS61 KCLE 222051
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
351 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will linger over the area through Saturday
before high pressure builds north for Saturday night through
Sunday. Another low pressure system will impact the region on
Monday into Tuesday before high pressure returns in the middle
of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A large scale trough over the East Coast with an associated
surface low pressure will gradually meander east through the
near term period, leaving the CWA on the back edge of the
trough. This will result in a continued north-northwest flow
with 850mb temperatures of -2 to 0C advecting across a relatively
warm Lake Erie waters. Hi-res guidance continues to suggest a
convergent boundary lingering over the snowbelt areas, even
shifting a bit further west this evening. With the steering flow
expected, there definitely is a possibility of a Lake Huron
connection developing. As a result, there is expected to be
pretty consistent lake effect showers through at least Saturday
morning. By Saturday afternoon, these showers should become
more focused across the primary snowbelt as the best forcing
shifts along with the steering flow gaining more of a westerly
component. Late Saturday, high pressure and a drier airmass is
expected to begin to push north, resulting in the gradual
decrease in lake effect precipitation and the return of drier
conditions. Although dreary and wet, the good news is that all
showers should remain as rain with temperatures tonight
expected to remain in the upper 30s to low 40s and highs on
Saturday climbing into the mid to upper 40s. Overnight lows
Saturday night will be a bit cooler, dropping into the mid 30s.
Aside from the precipitation potential, it is worth noting the
potential for gusty winds through this evening. A strong LLJ of
40-50 knots will push southeast across the area will
periodically mix down to the surface. This will result in
sustained winds of 15-20 mph, gusting up to 30-35 mph through
late this evening. As the trough departs further east, the
gradient will weaken, allowing winds to become 10-15 mph,
gusting up 20 mph, especially along the lakeshore. By Saturday
evening, winds will shift to westerly and weak to 5-10 mph with
no gusts. Overall impacts should remain minimal with these gusty
winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge axis will be located from the Mid-South to
Minnesota Sunday morning. At the same, the surface high will be
located over Tennessee Valley creating a southwest flow over the
forecast area on Sunday. Upper level ridge will slide east on Sunday
increasing heights and yielding a slight warming trend on Sunday.
This feature will maintain the slight warming trend Sunday through
Monday. A storm system is expected to track across the Rockies
Sunday night and move east across the Central Plains on Monday. The
associated wave will become neutral Monday afternoon and negatively
tilted from Minnesota to Indiana Monday night. Low level flow ahead
of this system will advect in lower and mid layer moisture.
Precipitable water values will increase from 0.5 inch early Sunday
to one inch by Monday night. At this time, rain chances will be
introduced late Sunday night and increased to likely pops Monday
afternoon and evening. a cold frontal passage is expected Monday
night with strong cold air advection with boundary layer winds
approaching 30 knots across land and 40 knots on Lake Erie. Under
rain showers and warm air advection before the cold front, Monday
will be our warmest day in the forecast with high temperatures in
the 50 to 60 degree range. This will be a very dynamic system with
very marginal instability. A clap a thunder is possible along the
front Monday night but not worth mentioning with right now.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A dramatic change will occur on Tuesday with strong cold advection
on Tuesday. The main trough will continue to lift northeast and
leave zonal flow over the forecast area through Wednesday. However,
northwest flow at 850mb will yield brief periods of lake enhanced
precipitation on Wednesday. A wave over south central Canada will
dive southeast and combine and another system over the Rockies to
bring in the next system later in the week. A developing low
pressure system moving west to east from the southern plains into
the Appalachians. Northern portion of the precipitation may reside
across central Ohio, the south half of the forecast area Thursday.
At this time, there is a great deal of uncertainty on the track and
will need to watch this system for changing precipitation types as
well. A trough is expected to over eastern Canada and east half of
Conus next weekend and give a good chance cold Canadian air coming
down south.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Less than desirable aviation conditions will continue through
this TAF period as low ceilings mixed with reduced visibilities
from rain will maintain MVFR to LIFR conditions. The current
conditions, which are primarily MVFR, will trend down to IFR
through the evening and overnight hours as lake effect rain
really becomes established for all terminals except KTOL and
KFDY. Ceilings at these terminals will likely remain in the MVFR
range. For terminals impacted by the lake effect rain,
visibilities will also be reduced to IFR conditions at times,
especially in the heaviest pockets of precipitation.
Winds through the entire period will remain from the northwest.
This afternoon, sustained winds of 12-15 knots are likely with
gusts up to 25-30 knots. The strongest winds are expected along
the immediate lakeshore, impacting KCLE and KERI. As the trough
shifts east overnight, winds will begin to weaken to 5-12 knots
and will persist through the remainder of the period. There is a
possibility of isolated wind gusts up to 20 knots on Saturday,
but with low confidence in where this will occur, opted to only
mention in the KCLE TAF.
Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday through Tuesday as
another system impacts the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Will maintain high end Small Craft Advisory through this evening
with winds up to 30kts sustained this evening and wave heights
pushing 10 feet. A slow decrease in winds will occur with pressure
gradient slowly relaxing through Saturday. Therefore, winds will
subside to 15-20 knots on Saturday with wave heights gradually
decreasing before becoming southwesterly Sunday 10-15kts into
Monday. Strong cold front tracks across the lake late Monday into
Monday night. Strong west winds of 20 to 30 knots are possible after
the frontal passage Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ142.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for LEZ143.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for LEZ144>147.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ148-149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...FZ
LONG TERM...FZ
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...FZ
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 22, 3:51 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202411222051-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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