MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 3:52 AM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
789
FXUS64 KMOB 280852
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
352 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
A deep low pressure system that includes the absorbed remains of
Helene will move little and remain centered over the vicinity of
Kentucky and northern Tennessee through Sunday, while the
associated trough axis extends southward into the northern Gulf
Coast region. The bulk of deep layer moisture and ascent associated
with this feature will remain confined to northern portions of
Mississippi and Alabama through tonight, though a slight enhancement
in boundary layer moisture along the southern periphery of the
trough axis should serve to aid in increased cloud cover, especially
across interior portions of our forecast area this afternoon into
tonight. Although a very brief/isolated rain shower or two cannot be
entirely ruled out over northern portions of our CWA this afternoon
and evening, the chance of measurable rain looks to remain below
mentionable levels. Dry conditions look to continue into Sunday
afternoon. Highs today and Sunday will be warm in the mid 80s to
around 90 degrees. Lows tonight should continue to range in the
lower to mid 60s over interior locations and in the upper 60s to mid
70s along the immediate coast and beaches.
Beach Note: A persistent moderate southwesterly flow, high tidal
ranges, and outgoing tide in the afternoon and early evening will
warrant keeping a HIGH rip current risk in effect along the Alabama
and northwest Florida beaches through this evening. The rip current
risk will probably come down by mid to late evening and into the
overnight hours tonight, but with southwesterly flow staying
elevated into the day Sunday, will probably opt to keep a MODERATE
rip current risk in place through Sunday afternoon, especially
toward the Florida panhandle beaches. The rip current risk will
become LOW by Sunday night and continue into the early to middle
part of next week. /21
&&
.SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Upper troughing generally persists across the region through
Wednesday as the cutoff upper low gradually shears out and moves
northeast into the Atlantic. In its wake, at least temporary weak
upper ridging builds in from the west for Thursday into Friday.
After this, the forecast becomes more uncertain on the upper air
pattern as ridging may start to break down and generally weak and
variable flow aloft takes its place.
At the surface, we will continue to have generally drier air
advected into the forecast area from the northwest thanks to the
upper low. As this moves away, expect the moisture/humidity to
return to the forecast mid to late week. With that said, overall dry
weather will prevail through mid week with any small chance for
showers or storms remaining well removed from land across the marine
waters. Highs will generally be in the middle to upper 80's, perhaps
locally touching 90 through mid week. Lows will remain in the lower
to middle 60's inland and upper 60's to near 70 along the coast
through mid week.
Late week attention starts to shift towards another area of low
pressure or surface trough that may develop in the western Caribbean
or southern Gulf of Mexico. The evolution of this feature will be
the primary influence for the forecast late week into the weekend
helping to advect a tropical airmass back into the forecast area.
This is characterized by most guidance depicting a plume of 2 to 2.5
inch PWATs pushing into the forecast area Thursday into Friday which
could help bolster heavy rainfall potential with any showers or
storms. Rain chances increase during this period with at least a
scattered coverage of showers and storms during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures will be knocked down a bit by increased cloud cover and
rain chances, with highs going from middle and upper 80's Thursday
to lower to middle 80's for Friday. Lows stay steady state with
lower to middle 60's inland and upper 60's to near 70 along the
coast. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Small craft operators should exercise caution through this afternoon
over the Gulf waters as westerly winds remain elevated between 15-20
knots with higher gusts. Lighter winds are expected to return into
early next week. /21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 88 65 89 67 89 68 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 87 72 88 73 88 72 87 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0
Destin 86 75 87 74 86 73 87 73 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 0
Evergreen 88 63 89 64 89 65 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 85 63 87 62 87 64 88 65 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 85 63 85 62 86 63 87 65 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 88 65 90 66 89 67 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 10 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 3:52 AM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202409280852-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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